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Cited by 1,004Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and LipoproteinsDiabetes Management and ResearchDiabetes and associated disorders

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Projection of Diabetes Burden Through 2050

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Boyle, James P., Honeycutt, Amanda A., Narayan, K.M. Venkat, Hoerger, Thomas J., Geiss, Linda S., Chen, Hong, Thompson, Theodore J.·2001·Diabetes Care
DOI 10.2337/diacare.24.11.1936
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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalence rates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific diagnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevalence data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census population demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying both prevalence rate and population projections. RESULTS: The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabetes will be among those aged > or =75 years (+271% in women and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diabetes is expected to be black males (+363% from 2000-2050), with black females (+217%), white males (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 million increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to changes in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS: If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linearly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic characteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.

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Metadata

Authors
Boyle, J. P., Honeycutt, A. A., Narayan, K. M. V., Hoerger, T. J., Geiss, L. S., Chen, H., & Thompson, T. J.
Affiliations
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
  • RTI International (US)
ORCID
Venue
Diabetes Care
Publisher
American Diabetes Association
Published
2001-11-01
Volume
24
Issue
11
Pages
1936-1940
ISSN
  • 0149-5992 (ISSN-L)
  • 1935-5548
DOI
10.2337/diacare.24.11.1936
OpenAlex
W2060151575
Cited by
1,004
References
14
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 28 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 46 · 2013: 50 · 2012: 59
FWCI
29.64
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Diabetes Care (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
Keywords
diabetes prevalence, population projections, age-specific prevalence, racial and ethnic disparities, older adults, Black men, population growth, diabetes epidemiology, United States
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Black or African American, Child, Demography, Diabetes Mellitus, Ethnicity, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Sex Factors, United States, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, White People, Racial Groups

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