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Cited by 13Atmospheric aerosols and cloudsClimate Change and GeoengineeringAdvanced Aircraft Design and Technologies

Does prognostic seeding along flight tracks produce the desired effects of cirrus cloud thinning?

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Tully, Colin, Neubauer, David, Villanueva, Diego, Lohmann, Ulrike·2023·Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
DOI 10.5194/acp-23-7673-2023

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Abstract

To date the climate intervention (CI) proposal of cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) was only assessed in general circulation models (GCMs) using a globally uniform distribution of artificial ice nucleating particles (INPs). In this study, we made the first attempt using the ECHAM–HAM (Hamburg Aerosol Module) GCM to simulate CCT using a fully prognostic cirrus seeding aerosol species. Seeding particles were assumed to be made of bismuth triiodide and were emitted into the atmosphere following aircraft emissions of black carbon (soot). This new approach drastically reduced the number concentration of seeding particles available as INPs in our cirrus ice nucleation sub-model compared to the globally uniform approach. As a result, we found that in order to achieve a significant signal we needed to reduce the assumed radius of emitted seeding particles by an order of magnitude to 0.01 µm and scale the mass emissions of seeding particles by at least a factor of 100 or 1000. This latter scaling factor led to a large net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) warming effect of 5.9 W m −2 . This warming effect was a clear response to overseeding with a large concentration of seeding particles (>10 5 L −1 in the Northern Hemisphere) that was most evident in the tropics. Due to this undesired effect, in a second series of simulations we avoided seeding the tropics by restricting emissions to only the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during winter. We also found a small and insignificant effect, or overseeding, which for the extreme case was reduced compared to the global aircraft emission scenario (2.2 W m −2 ). Ice crystal radius anomalies were not what we expected, with the largest reduction in size found for the case with a mass scaling factor of 10 instead of the extreme, ×1000, scenario. We attributed this peculiar behavior to the differences in the competition between different seeding particle concentrations and background particles. Finally, we also found that seeding with such large concentrations increased the albedo effect of mixed-phase clouds in the NH due to less efficient cloud droplet consumption, consistent with previous findings from our model. Overall, however, based on this study it is recommended to pause further modeling efforts of CCT unless more observational-based evidence of aerosol–ice-cloud interactions indicates favorable conditions for producing the desired outcome of this CI proposal.

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  • For CCT/MCT, key unknowns involve the efficacy of ice-nucleating particles in cirrus formation zones.

    “For CCT/MCT, key unknowns involve the efficacy of ice-nucleating particles in cirrus formation zones”

    From Past Field Experiments of Solar Radiation Modification: A Review of the Scientific and Technical Aspects for Governance (2026) · cites this paper as Tully et al., 2023

    The Conclusions (page unavailable) identify uncertainty about how ice-nucleating particle perturbations affect cirrus and say more evidence on cirrus formation is needed before assessing CCT further. The paper also reports effects on mixed-phase clouds, but it does not establish this as a key unknown for MCT as a strategy. (LLM, conf=0.83)

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Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Tully, C., Neubauer, D., Villanueva, D., & Lohmann, U.
Affiliations
ETH Zurich (CH)
Corresponding author
  • Tully, Colin
  • Lohmann, Ulrike
ORCID
Venue
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2023-07-13
Volume
23
Issue
13
Pages
7673-7698
ISSN
  • 1680-7316 (ISSN-L)
  • 1680-7324
DOI
10.5194/acp-23-7673-2023
OpenAlex
W4384202783
Cited by
13
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 1
FWCI
1.46
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Atmospheric chemistry and physics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • ETH Zürich Research Collection
Funders
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (875036)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
Keywords
cirrus cloud thinning, climate intervention, ice nucleating particles, aviation emissions, bismuth triiodide, ice crystal size, top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing, mixed-phase clouds, cloud albedo, aerosol-cloud interactions, tropics

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