Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs
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Abstract
Abstract. Previous climate modeling studies demonstrate the ability of feedback-regulated, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering with injection at multiple independent latitudes to meet multiple simultaneous temperature-based objectives in the presence of anthropogenic climate change. However, the impacts of climate change are not limited to rising temperatures, but also include changes in precipitation, loss of sea ice, and many more; knowing how a given geoengineering strategy will affect each of these climate metrics is vital to understanding the limits and trade-offs of geoengineering. In this study, we first introduce a new method of visualizing the design space in which desired climate outcomes are represented by 2-D surfaces on a 3-D graph. Surface orientations represent how different injection choices influence that objective, and intersecting surfaces represent objectives which can be met simultaneously. Using this representation as a guide, we present simulations of two new strategies for feedback-regulated aerosol injection, using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model CESM1 (WACCM). The first simultaneously manages global mean temperature, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent, while the second manages global mean precipitation, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent. Both simulations control the tropical precipitation centroid to within 5 % of the goal, and the latter controls global mean precipitation to within 1 % of the goal. Additionally, the first simulation over-compensates sea ice, while the second under-compensates sea ice; all of these results are consistent with the expectations of our design space model. In addition to showing that precipitation-based climate metrics can be managed using feedback alongside other goals, our simulations validate the utility of our design space visualization in predicting our climate model behavior under a given geoengineering strategy, and together they help illustrate the fundamental limits and trade-offs of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.
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The precipitation changes under ARISE-SAI-1.5 are due to both the avoidance of the temperature-related Clausius-Clapeyron increase expected under climate change and changes in the strength and position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the Hadley circulation.
“these changes are due to both the avoidance of the temperaturerelated Clausius-Clapeyron increase expected under climate change, as well as to changes in the strength and position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the Hadley circulation (Kravitz et al., 2017; Lee et al., 2020; Richter et al., 2022; Cheng et al., 2022) in the different scenarios.”
From Air quality impacts of stratospheric aerosol injections are likely small and mainly driven by changes in climate, not aerosol settling (2026) · cites this paper as Lee et al., 2020
Section 7 (Results) reports precipitation changes across aerosol-injection strategies and says that controlling precipitation requires undercompensating for temperature changes. Section 3 (Visualizing the design space) also links aerosol distribution to ITCZ position. The paper does not examine ARISE-SAI-1.5 or attribute its precipitation changes to a Clausius–Clapeyron effect or changes in Hadley-circulation strength and position. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThere are multiple potential objectives of SAI deployment, ranging from temperature reduction to precipitation management to biodiversity conservation.
“There are multiple potential objectives of SAI deployment, ranging from temperature reduction (of different extents), precipitation impact management, to biodiversity conservation (Lee et al., 2020; Zarnetske et al., 2021).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Lee et al., 2020
The Abstract and Discussion and conclusions describe SAI objectives involving temperature, precipitation and Arctic sea ice. They do not identify biodiversity conservation as an objective; that part of the jointly cited sentence is not supported by this paper (searched: biodiversity, biodiversity conservation). (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Lee, W., MacMartin, D., Visioni, D., & Kravitz, B.
- Affiliations
- Cornell University (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lee, Walker
- Venue
- Earth System Dynamics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2020-11-23
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1051-1072
- ISSN
- 2190-4979 (ISSN-L)
- 2190-4987
- OpenAlex
- W3048747631
- Cited by
- 62
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 13
- FWCI
- 3.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth System Dynamics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (CBET‐1818759, CBET-1931641)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, design space visualization, Arctic sea ice extent, global mean precipitation, global mean temperature, climate change mitigation
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