The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
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The hydrological impact of enhancing Earth's albedo by solar radiation management is investigated using simulations from 12 Earth System models contributing to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). We contrast an idealized experiment, G1, where the global mean radiative forcing is kept at preindustrial conditions by reducing insolation while the CO 2 concentration is quadrupled to a 4× CO 2 experiment. The reduction of evapotranspiration over land with instantaneously increasing CO 2 concentrations in both experiments largely contributes to an initial reduction in evaporation. A warming surface associated with the transient adjustment in 4× CO 2 generates an increase of global precipitation by around 6.9% with large zonal and regional changes in both directions, including a precipitation increase of 10% over Asia and a reduction of 7% for the North American summer monsoon. Reduced global evaporation persists in G1 with temperatures close to preindustrial conditions. Global precipitation is reduced by around 4.5%, and significant reductions occur over monsoonal land regions: East Asia (6%), South Africa (5%), North America (7%), and South America (6%). The general precipitation performance in models is discussed in comparison to observations. In contrast to the 4× CO 2 experiment, where the frequency of months with heavy precipitation intensity is increased by over 50% in comparison to the control, a reduction of up to 20% is simulated in G1. These changes in precipitation in both total amount and frequency of extremes point to a considerable weakening of the hydrological cycle in a geoengineered world.
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Monsoon areas would likely face a drop in precipitation under large scale SRM.
“Monsoon areas would likely face a drop in precipitation under large scale SRM (Tilmes et al., 2013; Reynolds et al., 2016)”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Tilmes et al., 2013
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“The speed of termination shock depends on the form of SRM. SAI has a half-life of ∼8 months (approximately half the levels of coolants would still be present after 8 months) and warming would still take several years to reach its unmitigated levels (Parker and Irvine, 2018).”
BackgroundInfluentialAtlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering
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- Authors
- Tilmes, S., Fasullo, J., Lamarque, J., Marsh, D. R., Mills, M., Alterskjær, K., Muri, H., Kristjánsson, J. E., Boucher, O., Schulz, M., Cole, J. N. S., Curry, C. L., Jones, A., Haywood, J., Irvine, P. J., Ji, D., Moore, J. C., Karam, D. B., Kravitz, B., Rasch, P. J., Singh, B., Yoon, J., Niemeier, U., Schmidt, H., Robock, A., Yang, S., & Watanabe, S.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado USA
- University of Oslo (NO)
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique IPSL, CNRS/UPMC Paris France
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- University of Victoria (CA)
- Met Office (GB)
- Research Institute for Sustainability at GFZ (DE)
- Beijing Normal University (CN)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE)
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- Danish Meteorological Institute (DK)
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP)
- Corresponding author
- Tilmes, Simone
- ORCID
- Tilmes, Simone
- Fasullo, John
- Marsh, Daniel R.
- Mills, Michael
- Alterskjær, Kari
- Muri, Helene
- Schulz, Michael
- Cole, Jason N. S.
- Curry, Charles L.
- Jones, Andy
- Haywood, Jim
- Irvine, Peter J.
- Ji, Duoying
- Moore, John C.
- Kravitz, Ben
- Rasch, Philip J.
- Singh, Balwinder
- Yoon, Jin‐Ho
- Niemeier, Ulrike
- Schmidt, Hauke
- Robock, Alan
- Yang, Shuting
- Watanabe, Shingo
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2013-10-15
- Volume
- 118
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 11036-11058
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-897X
- 2169-8996
- OpenAlex
- W2128861178
- Cited by
- 318
- References
- 85
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 14 · 2018: 35 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 26 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 5
- FWCI
- 16.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database GFZ (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database IASS (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- LaCRIS (University of Lapland) (submittedVersion)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DEAC02-05CH11231, FP7/2007-2013, 1157525)
- U.S. Department of Energy (-AC02-05CH11231, 05CH11231, DE AC02 05CH11231, Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231., DE-AC02-)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNG06GB91G, DE-AC02-05CH11231)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
- Fund for Innovative Climate and Energy Research
- National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (DE–AC02–05CH11231, 05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231)
- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government (GA01101)
- European Commission (226567, 306395)
- Met Office (GA01101)
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (DE-AC02-05CH11231)
- Beijing Normal University
- Norges Forskningsråd (DE-AC02-05CH11231)
- Office of Science (Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231, DEAC02–05CH11231, AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC02)
- Goddard Space Flight Center
- Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007, FP7/2007 - 2013, 2007‐2013)
- Centrum fÖr Personcentrerad Vård
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- solar radiation management, geoengineering, water cycle, precipitation change, evapotranspiration, CO2 quadrupling, radiative forcing, monsoon weakening, heavy rainfall, Earth system models, GeoMIP
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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