The Regional Hydroclimate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering and the Role of Stratospheric Heating
Open accessAbstract
Geoengineering methods could potentially offset aspects of greenhouse gas‐driven climate change. However, before embarking on any such strategy, a comprehensive understanding of its impacts must be obtained. Here, a 20‐member ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component is used to investigate the projected hydroclimate changes that occur when greenhouse gas‐driven warming, under a high emissions scenario, is offset with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. Notable features of the late 21st century hydroclimate response, relative to present day, include a reduction in precipitation in the Indian summer monsoon, over much of Africa, Amazonia and southern Chile and a wintertime precipitation reduction over the Mediterranean. Over most of these regions, the soil desiccation that occurs with global warming is, however, largely offset by the geoengineering. A notable exception is India, where soil desiccation and an approximate doubling of the likelihood of monsoon failures occurs. The role of stratospheric heating in the simulated hydroclimate change is determined through additional experiments where the aerosol‐induced stratospheric heating is imposed as a temperature tendency, within the same model, under present day conditions. Stratospheric heating is found to play a key role in many aspects of projected hydroclimate change, resulting in a general wet‐get‐drier, dry‐get‐wetter pattern in the tropics and extratropical precipitation changes through midlatitude circulation shifts. While a rather extreme geoengineering scenario has been considered, many, but not all, of the precipitation features scale linearly with the offset global warming.
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There would be substantial regional variation in the extent and direction of changes in precipitation under stratospheric aerosol injection.
“However, there would be substantial regional variation in the extent and direction of changes in precipitation [48–50].”
A shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone in a pattern consistent with that following some large volcanic eruptions would be expected under stratospheric aerosol injection, including a general decrease in tropical precipitation.
“In particular, a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone in a pattern consistent with that following some large volcanic eruptions would be expected, including a general decrease in tropical precipitation [48, 50].”
Stratospheric aerosol injection could result in reductions in precipitation of up to 10% during June, July, and August in Amazonia and Patagonia.
“These changes could result in reductions in precipitation of up to 10% during June, July, and August in Amazonia and Patagonia [48, 49].”
Increased sulfate concentrations could impact precipitation.
“precipitation (Simpson et al 2019)”
From The cost of stratospheric aerosol injection through 2100 (2020) · cites this paper as Simpson et al 2019
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Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth
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“However, there would be substantial regional variation in the extent and direction of changes in precipitation [48–50].”
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- Authors
- Simpson, I. R., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Mills, M. J., Fasullo, J. T., & Pendergrass, A. G.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- California Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Simpson, I. R.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2019-12-05
- Volume
- 124
- Issue
- 23
- Pages
- 12587-12616
- ISSN
- 0148-0227 (ISSN-L)
- 2169-897X
- 2169-8996
- OpenAlex
- W2983158038
- Cited by
- 202
- References
- 10
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 12.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- iu.tind.io
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (publishedVersion)
- CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- IUScholarWorks Open (Indiana University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1852977, CBET-1931641)
- U.S. Department of Energy (DE-AC05-76RL01830)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, hydroclimatic change, stratospheric heating, precipitation change, Indian summer monsoon, monsoon failure, soil drying, Mediterranean precipitation, WACCM
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