Evaluation of Waning of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine–Induced Immunity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Open accessAbstract
Importance: Estimates of the rate of waning of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 are key to assess population levels of protection and future needs for booster doses to face the resurgence of epidemic waves. Objective: To quantify the progressive waning of VE associated with the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 by number of received doses. Data Sources: PubMed and Web of Science were searched from the databases' inception to October 19, 2022, as well as reference lists of eligible articles. Preprints were included. Study Selection: Selected studies for this systematic review and meta-analysis were original articles reporting estimates of VE over time against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic disease. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Estimates of VE at different time points from vaccination were retrieved from original studies. A secondary data analysis was performed to project VE at any time from last dose administration, improving the comparability across different studies and between the 2 considered variants. Pooled estimates were obtained from random-effects meta-analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were VE against laboratory-confirmed Omicron or Delta infection and symptomatic disease and half-life and waning rate associated with vaccine-induced protection. Results: A total of 799 original articles and 149 reviews published in peer-reviewed journals and 35 preprints were identified. Of these, 40 studies were included in the analysis. Pooled estimates of VE of a primary vaccination cycle against laboratory-confirmed Omicron infection and symptomatic disease were both lower than 20% at 6 months from last dose administration. Booster doses restored VE to levels comparable to those acquired soon after the administration of the primary cycle. However, 9 months after booster administration, VE against Omicron was lower than 30% against laboratory-confirmed infection and symptomatic disease. The half-life of VE against symptomatic infection was estimated to be 87 days (95% CI, 67-129 days) for Omicron compared with 316 days (95% CI, 240-470 days) for Delta. Similar waning rates of VE were found for different age segments of the population. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against laboratory-confirmed Omicron or Delta infection and symptomatic disease rapidly wanes over time after the primary vaccination cycle and booster dose. These results can inform the design of appropriate targets and timing for future vaccination programs.
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A systematic meta-analysis found that the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against the omicron variant wanes to less than 20% within 6 months of primary immunisation and to less than 30% within 9 months of a booster dose.
“A systematic meta-analysis found that the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against the omicron variant wanes to less than 20% within 6 months of primary immunisation and to less than 30% within 9 months of a booster dose.24”
From Immunogenicity and safety of a booster dose of a self-amplifying RNA COVID-19 vaccine (ARCT-154) versus BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine: a double-blind, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3, non-inferiority trial (2024) · cites this paper as [24]
The Abstract Findings (page not available) report effectiveness below 20% at six months after a primary course and below 30% at nine months after a booster. However, the Results describe these as pooled estimates across different vaccine products, not estimates specifically for mRNA vaccines. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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- Authors
- Menegale, F., Manica, M., Zardini, A., Guzzetta, G., Marziano, V., d'Andrea, V., Trentini, F., Ajelli, M., Poletti, P., & Merler, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Trento (IT)
- Fondazione Bruno Kessler (IT)
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
- Indiana University Bloomington (US)
- Corresponding author
- Poletti, Piero
- ORCID
- Venue
- JAMA Network Open
- Publisher
- American Medical Association (AMA)
- Published
- 2023-05-03
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- e2310650
- ISSN
- 2574-3805 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10157431
- OpenAlex
- W4367834776
- Cited by
- 280
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 44 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 118 · 2023: 31 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 13.28
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- JAMA Network Open (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Padua Research Archive (University of Padova) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (NU38OT000297)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (NU38OT000297)
- NextGenerationEU (PE00000007)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Keywords
- SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 vaccines, vaccine effectiveness, waning immunity, Omicron variant, Delta variant, booster vaccination, symptomatic COVID-19
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, Hepatitis D, Humans
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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