Geoengineering with stratospheric aerosols: What do we not know after a decade of research?
Open accessAbstract
Abstract Any well‐informed future decision on whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering requires balancing the impacts (both intended and unintended) of intervening in the climate against the impacts of not doing so. Despite tremendous progress in the last decade, the current state of knowledge remains insufficient to support an assessment of this balance, even for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG), arguably the best understood (practical) geoengineering method. We articulate key unknowns associated with SAG, including both climate‐science and design questions, as an essential step toward developing a future strategic research program that could address outstanding uncertainties.
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There is a paucity of research on SAI impacts, particularly so for catastrophic or worst-case impacts.
“There is a paucity of research on SAI impacts (Irvine et al., 2016, 2017; MacMartin et al., 2016; McCormack et al., 2016; but see Schäfer et al., 2015 for an exception), particularly so for catastrophic or worst-case impacts.”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as MacMartin et al., 2016
In “Uncertainty in surface climate effects and impacts” (page unavailable), the paper says broader studies of geoengineering impacts are “lacking and sorely needed,” supporting the general claim of a research gap. It raises questions about the probability of climate extremes, but does not specifically say research on catastrophic or worst-case impacts is especially scarce. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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- Authors
- MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Long, J. C. S., & Rasch, P. J.
- Affiliations
- Cornell University (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- MacMartin, Douglas G.
- Venue
- Earth s Future
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2016-11
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 543-548
- ISSN
- 2328-4277 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2544546915
- Cited by
- 58
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 1
- FWCI
- 6.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Earth s Future (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (DE-AC05–76RL01830, 76RL01830, AC05-76RL01830, DE-AC05?)
- Battelle (AC05-76RL01830, DE- AC05-76RL01830, DE-AC05)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DEAC0576RL01830, 76RL01830)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Keywords
- solar geoengineering, stratospheric aerosol injection, uncertainty analysis, climate intervention, research program planning
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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