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Cited by 100Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource ManagementAgriculture, Land Use, Rural DevelopmentLand Use and Ecosystem Services

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Deforestation Trajectories on a Development Frontier in the Brazilian Amazon: 35 Years of Settlement Colonization, Policy and Economic Shifts, and Land Accumulation

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Carrero, Gabriel Cardoso, Fearnside, Philip Martin, do Valle, Denis Ribeiro, de Souza Alves, Cristiano·2020·Environmental Management
DOI 10.1007/s00267-020-01354-wPMC PMC7493702
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Abstract

We examine deforestation processes in Apuí, a deforestation hotspot in Brazil's state of Amazonas and present processes of land-use change on this Amazonian development frontier. Settlement projects attract agents whose clearing reflects land accumulation and the economic importance of deforestation. We used a mixed-method approach in the Rio Juma Settlement to examine colonization and deforestation trajectories for 35 years at three scales of analysis: the entire landscape, cohorts of settlement lots divided by occupation periods, and lots grouped by landholding size per household. All sizes of landholdings are deforesting much more than before, and current political and economic forces favoring the agribusiness sector foreshadow increasing rates of forest clearing for pasture establishment in Apuí. The area cleared per year over the 2013-2018 period in Apuí grew by a percentage more than twice the corresponding percentage for the Brazilian Amazon as a whole. With the national congress and presidential administration signaling impunity for illegal deforestation, wealthy actors, and groups are investing resources in land grabbing and land accumulation, with land speculation being a crucial deforestation factor. This paper is unique in providing causal explanations at the decision-maker's level on how deforestation trajectories are linked to economic and political events (period effects) at the larger scales, adding to the literature by showing that such effects were more important than aging and cohort effects as explanations for deforestation trajectories. Additional research is needed to deepen our understanding of relations between land speculation, illegal possession of public lands, and the expansion of agricultural frontiers in Amazonia.

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  • PPCDAm's implementation fluctuates and was notoriously absent during the Bolsonaro administration (2019-2022), reinforcing an entrenched culture of impunity in the region.

    “In public lands, the Plan for Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAm) has helped address illegalities since 2004, but its implementation fluctuates and was notoriously absent during the Bolsonaro administration (2019-2022), reinforcing an entrenched culture of impunity in the region (Carrero et al., 2020;Coelho-Junior et al., 2022).”

    From Beyond the “supply chain” framing: Cattle ranching as a vanishing mediator of deforestation and dispossession in the Brazilian and Colombian Amazon (2026) · cites this paper as Carrero et al., 2020

    In Results and Discussion, “Colonization and Deforestation in PA Rio Juma,” the paper says the deforestation-control plan was created in 2004 and describes where surveillance was concentrated. “Political and Economic Effects on the Current Deforestation Scenario” reports weakened environmental protections after Bolsonaro took office, and “Land-Tenure Insecurity and Land Speculation” describes a 2019 measure favoring illegal land claims. These passages support concern about weak enforcement and impunity, but do not say PPCDAm implementation fluctuated or that the plan was absent throughout 2019–2022. (LLM, conf=0.88)

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Metadata

Authors
Carrero, G. C., Fearnside, P. M., do Valle, D. R., & de Souza Alves, C.
Affiliations
  • University of Florida (US)
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR)
Corresponding author
Carrero, Gabriel Cardoso
ORCID
Venue
Environmental Management
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2020-09-16
Volume
66
Issue
6
Pages
966-984
ISSN
  • 0364-152X (ISSN-L)
  • 1432-1009
DOI
10.1007/s00267-020-01354-w
PMC
PMC7493702
OpenAlex
W3087682772
Cited by
100
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 18 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 14
FWCI
3.83
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Environmental Management (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
  • World Wildlife Fund
  • University of Florida
  • Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (573810/2008‐7, 305880/2007‐1)
  • Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
  • Social Sciences › Development › Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
Keywords
deforestation, land accumulation, land speculation, land grabbing, Apuí, Amazonas, land use change, farm size, pasture expansion, agribusiness, illegal deforestation, period effects
MeSH terms
Agriculture, Brazil, Conservation of Natural Resources, Humans, Policy, Forests

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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