The DOI matches its Crossref record; 97 of the 104 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 17 of the 79 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006–2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition—specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses—have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time—in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles—further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.
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Claims the paper makes
43 Own result · 24 Own interpretation · 17 Sources not found · 14 Own method · 11 No basis given · 10 Partly supported · 9 No full text of the sources · 9 Not checked yet · 4 Supported · 1 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Delays in childbearing – even for a couple of years – can reduce lifetime fertility rates for cohorts of women (Bongaarts and Feeney 1998; Currie and Schwandt 2014; Morgan 2003; Ryder 1980).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Bongaarts and Feeney 1998 source
- Partly supportedcites Currie and Schwandt 2014 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results (page unavailable) report that cohorts exposed to high unemployment in their early 20s had fewer children in both the short and long term, rather than simply postponing births. This supports the possibility that a short-run fertility reduction can persist, but the paper does not establish that delaying childbearing by just a couple of years itself reduces lifetime fertility. (LLM, conf=0.84)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Morgan 2003 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“As economic prosperity diminishes during cyclical downturns and financial uncertainty and distress increases, women and couples postpone childbearing (Balbo et al. 2013; Buckles, Hungerman, and Lugauer 2018; Currie and Schwandt 2014).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Balbo et al. 2013 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Economic Trends section reports studies linking downturns and uncertainty to postponed childbearing, and the Economic and Employment Uncertainty section links precarious circumstances to delayed parenthood. But the review describes the evidence as mixed, including contrary cyclical findings and differences in how women respond to uncertainty. The claim states the pattern more generally than the source supports. (LLM, conf=0.84)
- Partly supportedcites Buckles, Hungerman, and Lugauer 2018 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction reports that conception growth declined around recent U.S. downturns, often before recessions began, and the Conclusion describes fertility as pro-cyclical. The paper does not establish that rising financial uncertainty or distress caused women and couples to postpone childbearing; it treats delayed births as a possibility rather than a demonstrated explanation. (LLM, conf=0.85)
- Partly supportedcites Currie and Schwandt 2014 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract (page unavailable) reports that fertility falls as unemployment rises, and the Results say reduced household income might help explain lower fertility during recessions. But the paper does not establish that financial uncertainty causes postponement; its Results find that women facing high unemployment in their early 20s do not just postpone births, but have fewer children in the long term. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
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In the paper
“Since the 1980s, the U.S. labor market has experienced declines in middle-skill, middle-income jobs in manufacturing and construction as a result of improvements in assembly line automation and the displacement of routine production jobs offshore, among other explanations (Acemoglu and Autor 2011; Autor, Katz, and Kearney 2006; Kalleberg 2009).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Acemoglu and Autor 2011 source
- Partly supportedcites Autor, Katz, and Kearney 2006 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract and Section II report employment growth favoring high- and low-wage jobs over middle-wage jobs in the 1990s, and the paper models computerization as displacing routine production tasks. They do not establish that declining middle-wage jobs were specifically in manufacturing and construction, or that offshoring caused those declines; Section III presents outsourcing only as a possible complementary mechanism. Section II also distinguishes the 1980s employment pattern from the polarization observed in the 1990s. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Kalleberg 2009 source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Since structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time, in contrast to unemployment rates which fluctuate with economic cycles”
- Also stated in: § STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS · plain
“once manufacturing and other goods-producing jobs disappear, they rarely return during post-recessional recovery periods (Abel and Deitz 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Abel and Deitz 2012 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Polarization of Employment (p. 3) says routine middle-skill jobs are lost largely during recessions and that employment in those jobs never recovers, supporting the persistence of a specific labor-market change. The paper does not discuss unemployment rates fluctuating with economic cycles or directly compare their duration with structural changes. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS · plain
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Racial differences in labor market occupational distributions are also attributed to employer discrimination (Pager and Pedulla 2015).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Pager and Pedulla 2015 source
In “Additional Considerations > Sorting by Firm or Job?” (page unavailable), the paper reports evidence that employers discriminate more against African Americans in client-facing jobs and channel black applicants toward back-of-house jobs. That supports employer discrimination as a contributor to racial differences in the kinds of jobs workers hold. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Currie and Schwandt’s (2014) comprehensive analysis of state-level fertility trends between 1975–2010 suggests that increased unemployment during economic recessions was associated with short-term and long-term reductions in fertility for women in their early 20s.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Currie and Schwandt’s (2014) source
The paper’s Abstract reports an analysis of US birth records from 1975–2010 and finds that high unemployment reduced fertility among women in their early 20s in both the short and long run. The Results likewise state that the short-term response was strongest at ages 20–24 and that cohorts facing high unemployment at those ages had fewer children in both periods. (LLM, conf=0.94)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Jaimovich and Siu (2012), examining rebounds in job loss across occupational categories after every economic recession in the U.S. since the 1970s, find that an overwhelming proportion of permanent job loss in middle-skill positions since the 1980s occurred during periods of economic recession rather than periods between economic recessions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Jaimovich and Siu (2012) source
The Introduction reports that 88% of job loss in routine, middle-skill occupations since the mid-1980s occurred within a 12-month window around NBER-dated recessions. Section 3.2 says employment in these occupations did not recover in the short, medium, or long term. The paper measures loss around recessions, rather than strictly within their official dates. (LLM, conf=0.90)
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Importantly, once manufacturing and other goods-producing jobs disappear, they rarely return during post-recessional recovery periods (Abel and Deitz 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Abel and Deitz 2012 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Polarization of Employment (p. 3) says routine middle-skill jobs are lost almost exclusively during recessions and their employment levels never recover. The Economic Forces behind Job Polarization (p. 2) identifies manufacturing as especially exposed and says goods-producing jobs are disproportionately middle-skill, but it does not extend the recovery finding to all manufacturing and other goods-producing jobs. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
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In the paper
“During the post-recession period, availability and usage of long acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) increased substantially (Branum and Jones 2015; Finer, Jerman, and Kavanaugh 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Branum and Jones 2015
- Partly supportedcites Finer, Jerman, and Kavanaugh 2012 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results report that LARC use among U.S. contraceptors rose substantially from 3.7% in 2007 to 8.5% in 2009. The paper does not establish that availability also increased substantially, and its 2007–2009 comparison does not specifically establish a post-recession trend. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Most research examining the influence of the Great Recession on teenage fertility rates finds little empirical evidence of a significant relationship with unemployment rates (Boonstra 2014; Lindberg, Santelli, and Desai 2016; Percheski and Kimbro 2014).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Boonstra 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Could not verifycites Lindberg, Santelli, and Desai 2016 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The paper’s introductory discussion says prior research examined economic factors in declining adolescent fertility, but it does not report whether unemployment rates had a significant relationship with teenage fertility. Searches for Great Recession, unemployment, and job loss found no passage in our copy that assesses that relationship; the Discussion instead addresses sexual activity and contraceptive use. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.74)
- Not matchedcites Percheski and Kimbro 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
- It may state two separate claims as one. 42
- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Past research on labor market polarization has established that the goods-producing business sector contains a disproportionate share of middle-skill, middle-income jobs and therefore represents an appropriate measure of local labor market polarization (Abel and Deitz 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Measures
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Abel and Deitz 2012 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Economic Forces behind Job Polarization (p. 2) says the goods-producing sector employs a disproportionate share of middle-skill workers. But for its regional analysis, Job Polarization in New York and Northern New Jersey (p. 5) measures changes in employment across four skill groups; it does not establish the goods-producing sector as an appropriate measure of local polarization. (LLM, conf=0.88)
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Although this finding contrasts with earlier studies on the Great Recession which find considerable evidence of pro-cyclicality (e.g. Currie and Schwandt 2014; Morgan et al. 2011; Schneider 2015), this discrepancy might be explained by the extended time period of the present study and the geographic level examined.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Currie and Schwandt 2014 source
Split into 2 atoms — 2 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not matchedcites Morgan et al. 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Schneider 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Consequently, the search for re-employment for non-white workers after economic recessions has been more drawn out than for whites, entailing lengthier spells of unemployment and therefore increased periods of financial precarity (Couch and Fairlie 2010; Hout and Cumberworth 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Couch and Fairlie 2010 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Unemployment Transitions section reports that unemployed Black men were less likely than white men to be reemployed the following month (29.4% versus 33.6%), supporting a slower return to work for the group studied. But the Conclusion says this reemployment gap did not change over the business cycle. The paper studies Black men rather than all non-white workers, and the cited passages do not establish increased financial precarity. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hout and Cumberworth 2012 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Discrimination in hiring practices by employers has played a significant role in perpetuating these racial disparities, constructing social barriers towards stable and long-term employment (Fryer, Pager, and Spenkuch 2013; Pager, Bonikowski, and Western 2009).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fryer, Pager, and Spenkuch 2013
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Pager, Bonikowski, and Western 2009 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Experimental Results (Race-Coded Job Channeling, page unavailable) describe racial barriers in hiring that reduce minority applicants’ chances of employment, supporting the claim about disparities and barriers. The Discussion (page unavailable) says discrimination may have long-term effects, but the study examines hiring decisions, not whether applicants obtain stable, long-term employment. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Throughout this nine-year period, Hispanics had the highest percentage of workers employed in goods-producing industries, followed by whites. Black and Asian workers had the smallest percentage of workers in goods-producing industries.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“white TFR declined 7.7%, black TFR declined 7%, and Asian TFR declined 7.8% between 2006–2014.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For all racial/ethnic groups, TFR began to decline in 2008, although at different rates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In Online Appendix Table S2, I substitute the rate of single/never-married in an MSA for the MSA divorce rate for the population age 15–64. The results from these ACS models are likewise comparable to the previous ACS subset models.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In regard to the unemployment rate, the coefficients remain non-significant for black and Asian women, and close to zero for white women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the overall decline in TFR between 2006–2014 was .136 for white women, .139 for black women, .143 for Asian women, .547 for Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Panel B displays a sharp decline in the average share of goods-producing businesses in MSAs at the start of the Great Recession. The rate of decline decreased and leveled off towards the end of the period in 2014.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results indicate a significant, negative association between the unemployment rate and TFR for non-Hispanic white women (β = −.007 S.E. = .001), non-Hispanic black women (β = −.012; S.E. = .005), non-Hispanic Asian women (β = −.016; S.E. = .007), and Hispanic women (β = .036; S.E. = .005).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: unclear — It is unclear whether the authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While labor market polarization was found to influence TFR for all racial/ethnic groups throughout the extended period analysis, the effect size is substantially larger in magnitude for women of color than for whites, particularly black and Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results are substantively comparable to the results from the 2006–2014 analysis for the percentage goods-producing coefficients (Table 3), although the effect size is largest for black women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For MSA-level unemployment, the coefficients suggest that the relationship between the unemployment rate and racial/ethnic total fertility rate remained pro-cyclical throughout the entire period for white and Asian women, but not for black and Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the effect size of the percentage of goods-producing businesses coefficients remain similar to those estimated in Model 2 for all racial/ethnic groups, although their magnitude slightly diminishes. In contrast, the coefficients for the unemployment rate attenuate in both size and significance in comparison to the coefficients estimated in Model 1.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“declines in the percentage of goods-producing businesses on average account for 37% of overall TFR declines for white women, 38% of overall TFR declines for black women, 46% of overall TFR declines for Asian women, and 26% of overall TFR declines for Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the average MSA unemployment rate increased sharply at the start of the Great Recession in 2008 and then slowly declined after 2011.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the coefficient for the percentage of goods-producing businesses does not change across time periods for white women, it slightly increases for Asian women and slightly decreases for Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Comparing coefficients across racial and ethnic groups (Eq. 3), the results indicate that the effect size for the goods-producing businesses parameters is significantly larger for Hispanics than for whites, blacks, and Asians. There is no significant difference between the coefficients for the latter three groups.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Throughout this 24-year period, the average unemployment rate was 6.2%, although cyclical economic expansions and contractions resulted in an average low of 4.2 % in 2001 and an average high of 9.6% in 2011.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The age-specific fertility rate models also suggest that fertility rates for teenage women ages 15–19 were significantly responsive to changes in structural economic conditions for both white and Hispanic women and changes in cyclical economic conditions for white women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since the effect size is small and mostly non-significant for women in their 30s and 40s, the results suggest that births are likely being delayed rather than entirely foregone.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“The total fertility rate for the United States remained below replacement at about 1.77 births per woman in 2017 (Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017; Martin, Hamilton, and Osterman 2018), down from 2.12 births per woman in 2007.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Martin, Hamilton, and Osterman 2018
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Researchers theorize a pro-cyclical relationship between economic conditions and fertility behavior: fertility rates increase during economic expansions and decrease during economic recessions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“the national unemployment rate returned to its pre-recession level of 4.7% in May 2016 (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017) and median household income surpassed pre-recession levels in 2015 (Semega, Fontenot, and Kollar 2017).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Semega, Fontenot, and Kollar 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This process of “labor market polarization” has reduced employment demand for jobs in the middle of the occupational skills distribution while increasing employment demand for lower-paid, low-skill service sector positions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“McKernan et al. (2014), for instance, find that while white families experienced an average decrease in family wealth of approximately 26.2% following the Great Recession, black and Hispanic families lost 47.6% and 44.3%, respectively.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites McKernan et al. (2014) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“According to national vital statistics records on fertility between 2007 to 2015 (Hamilton et al. 2017), GFR decreased 3% for non-Hispanic whites, 10% for non-Hispanic blacks, 10% for Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 36% for Hispanics.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton et al. 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The analytic method used in the present analysis, fixed-effects, controls for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity that enters the specifications linearly and additively (Allison 2009).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Allison 2009 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Fixed-effects analyses, however, do not account for time-varying sources of unobserved heterogeneity.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Cherlin and colleagues (2013) likewise finds variation across age groups during the Great Recession: while younger women experienced decreases in age-specific GFR, women in their 40s continued having children at the same pre-recession age-specific GFR levels.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Cherlin and colleagues (2013)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“between 2007–2009, employment in occupational categories of production, craft, and repair decreased by 17% and employment in occupational categories of operators, fabricators, and laborers decreased by 15% (Autor 2010).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Autor 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of 13,709 total TFR observations, 159 exceed 4.0. I remove these cases from the analytic sample to ensure that outliers are not influencing the regression results. The inclusion of these values in the models, however, does not substantively change the results.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Measures
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“research on occupational shifts of African American men during the Great Recession by Holder (2015) indicates that black men experienced declines in representation in high-wage and middle-wage occupational categories between 2005–2006 and 2010–2011, while non-Hispanic white men experienced only minor shifts in their representation in the same occupational categories.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Holder (2015)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Only in 2014 did the TFR briefly reverse course and increase before decreasing yet more through 2017 (Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017; Martin et al. 2018).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Martin et al. 2018
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Additionally, because the availability of goods-producing jobs in a local area is a matter of supply, the distribution of business establishments, rather than the distribution of workers across occupations, is the preferred measurement of structural labor market conditions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Measures
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The use of local-area population estimates in conjunction with birth records to calculate TFR generates a few implausible TFR values.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Measures
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Second, black and Asian/Pacific Islander fertility rates decreased more sharply than white fertility rates, but less than Hispanic fertility rates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The present analysis relies on population-level data and cannot test how individual-level factors influence fertility decision-making.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To minimize threats to causal inference, I include a set of theoretically relevant covariates that are lagged one year (Table 1).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, economic recessions have hastened permanent structural changes in U.S. labor markets and have reduced the demand for middle-wage, middle-income jobs.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One plausible mechanism through which this macroeconomic relationship may operate is individual-level financial uncertainty, initiated by job displacement from manufacturing, construction, and other goods-producing industries.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In total, this battery of alternate specifications yields comparable results to the previously estimated models in Table 3 and Table 4, suggesting that the findings are largely robust.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
- Rests on an assumption: The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Job loss in goods-producing industries is more devastating for non-white workers since racial disparities in employment exist even during economically prosperous times (Janoski et al. 2014; Moore 2010).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Janoski et al. 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Moore 2010 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In fact, fertility rates continue to decline, with 2017 reaching an unprecedented national low for general fertility rates (Hamilton et al. 2018).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton et al. 2018
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Researchers have overlooked important long-term structural changes in U.S. labor markets, particularly the decline of manufacturing and construction industries, and the coincident rise of low-paid jobs in service industries.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the bridged-race population estimates used in the present analysis are the same source of population estimates used by the NCHS when they generate and distribute public release vital statistics figures, including fertility rates, and are regarded as the best source of population data for this task.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the present analysis uses aggregate data and is susceptible to ecologically fallacious inference; the findings should only be interpreted in terms of population-level behavior patterns, not individual-level choices.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Past research suggests that these trends contributed to post-recession fertility declines (Fletcher and Polos 2017; Schneider and Gemmill 2016).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“However, the association between structural labor market changes and fertility dates at least to the early 1990s (Table 5) before major increases in LARC availability and usage (Branum and Jones 2015), suggesting that LARCs may be part of but not the entire story of the present findings.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Branum and Jones 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite these limitations, this study offers an innovative economic explanation for why fertility rates in the United States continue to decline.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, the TFR measure relies on both administrative data and population estimates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Rests on an assumption: The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the denominators of the equation, population counts, draw on bridged-race population estimates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Rests on an assumption: The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By proposing a structural economic explanation for why fertility rates continues to decline, this study contributes to the understanding of how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility behavior and decision-making.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prevailing theoretical perspectives on how economic conditions influence fertility have primarily relied on cyclical measures of economic change.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper relies on this without support.
The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
“In Model 2, I estimate the effect of labor market polarization, measured as the percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area, on TFR without the inclusion of the unemployment rate parameter.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
“Since the specifications presented above do not account for several unmeasured, time-varying metropolitan area characteristics that might influence the results, I conduct a series of robustness checks which test alternate specifications of these models.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.
“the denominators of the equation, population counts, draw on bridged-race population estimates.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
“The results indicate a significant, negative association between the unemployment rate and TFR for non-Hispanic white women (β = −.007 S.E. = .001), non-Hispanic black women (β = −.012; S.E. = .005), non-Hispanic Asian women (β = −.016; S.E. = .007), and Hispanic women (β = .036; S.E. = .005).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
“Hispanic women (β = .036; S.E. = .005).”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
“The results indicate a significant, negative association between the unemployment rate and TFR”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
“Hispanic women (β = .036; S.E. = .005).”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
“where the β coefficients represent the average value for the post-recession period (ppostrecession), while the γ coefficients represent the average difference in coefficients for the pre-recession/recession and post-recession periods.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
“with an interacted set of binary-coded vectors for the post-recession period ppostrecesssion with vectors xmt (Eq. 4). The model is estimated as follows: (Eq. 4)TFRmrt = βxmt + γ(xmt * pmt) + αm + μmt”
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“2014), researchers have identified technological advances in assembly line automation and the offshoring of routine production jobs as major causes (Autor et al. 2006; Kalleberg 2009).”
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–198 of 198
A continuum of family support throughout childhood
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/bffd783d-en
Half of the total number of doctors and 87% of long-term care workers across the OECD are women
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/0d5d8925-en
More than one‑third of people in the OECD are at risk of falling into poverty
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/2e163629-en
More than half of the population perceives corruption in government
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/2f147ef6-en
The share of young adults living with their parents has increased in many countries
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/7d5fbce0-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/73e5872b-en
In most OECD countries there has been a decline in electoral participation
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/60e7cbf3-en
Young people tend to vote less than adults age 25‑50
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/3336a888-en
Over the past 30 years, incomes of the bottom 10% grew slower than mean, median and top incomes
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/954bc09c-en
Most spending goes to pensions and health
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/ddbe58cb-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/2ddeca93-en
Employment rates in late 2023 were generally above pre‑COVID‑19 levels
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/52540d87-en
In most OECD countries, women participate more than men in education and training
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/8b14e9ab-en
Men and women spend 4.5 more years after labour market exit in 2022 than in 1980
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/3f313b2a-en
Internet usage has increased in all OECD countries in the past two decades
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/33b2f627-en
Marked decline in smoking rates among adults in most OECD countries
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/2553397c-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/66c98ef2-en · Cited by 1
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/52ecea63-en
Fertility rates across the OECD are typically below the population replacement rate
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/ced9b6a5-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/528d724e-en
Median income varies by a factor eight across OECD countries
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/3f4a64c1-en
Almost one in five 15‑year‑olds have been drunk at least twice in their life
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/e058a977-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/f5123f61-en
One in ten women across the OECD condone men’s violence against women
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/48293bd3-en
The share of youth in the total population declines in most countries
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/ec93c832-en
COVID‑19 reduced life expectancy in many countries
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/2f04485d-en
Fertility trends across the OECD: Underlying drivers and the role for policy
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/fa367bad-en · Cited by 2
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/08530691-en
On average less than half of the population trust their national government
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/fcfa93ab-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/a239711e-de
More so than men, women do not feel secure walking alone at night
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/8df809b9-en
The strong decline in the youth to working-age ratio has stopped
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/a0344871-en
Many think that child income support is inadequate
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/050b4003-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/e01b0e44-en
Satisfaction tends to be higher for education, public safety, and health
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/22e14d99-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/a63f6e7f-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/bf453c34-en
Household expenditures have changed since 2000
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/2e68274e-en
Gender gaps in performance vary across subjects in OECD countries
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/a520b271-en
Cash support is not always tightly targeted to the poorest
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/14716a91-en
The share of online vacancies demanding AI skills is small but increasing
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/2a9c9130-en
More than five‑out-of-ten jobs in shortage are found in high-skilled occupations
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/c1db1aa3-en
One in ten of the OECD population is foreign-born
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/529eb923-en
The mean age at first marriage for both women and men rose by 6 years since 1990
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/241e5239-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/6b4029c2-en
Large differences in health spending per capita across the OECD
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/cc96de8e-en
Teenage girls report more often to be victims of cyberbullying than boys
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/45cb55bd-en
In two‑thirds of the OECD countries, migrants’ fertility rates are below replacement rate
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/b7b2bdf1-en
On average across the OECD 27% of jobs have a high risk of automation
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/2b5c11cd-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/4502f8eb-en · Cited by 1
Income and wealth inequalities
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/8e321b13-en
Unemployment and social safety net benefits
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/3a4306d8-en
On average across the OECD, the number of nurses is about 2.5 times that of doctors
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/1de85a92-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/4bf471b6-en
In most OECD countries, annual migration flows represent less than 1% of the population
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/bc26d48e-en
Women continue to live over 5 years more than men on average across OECD countries
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/e9ba2d5c-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/b08fa75e-en
Social safety net benefits alone cannot prevent income poverty
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/17772467-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/972cb357-en
Preferences for government intervention and social policies
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/89e94566-en
Social and economic risk perceptions and concerns
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/16e28105-en
One‑third of all doctors and a quarter of nurses in OECD countries were over 55 years of age
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/797e2ab9-en
The emergence of COVID‑19 led to increases in health spending in two‑thirds of OECD countries
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/77de1594-en
Housing is a key worry for young adults
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/f5aebe27-en
In 2022, many workers were worried about losing their jobs
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/94d331d2-en
The link between family policy and fertility outcomes
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/5ef1a25e-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/78604ba2-en
Satisfaction with social policies and the government’s covid response
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/4c4842f1-en
Key facts and figures (Infographic)
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/ec4aa2e6-en
The demographic old age to working age ratio will double over the next four decades
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/95dd4819-en
Women spend 4.5 more years after labour market exit than men
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/ea5c5b29-en
Tobacco and alcohol consumption
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/53223dd4-en
In most countries, benefit income declines significantly for people with long unemployment spells
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/4521cc69-en
A majority in many countries think that today’s children will miss out on progress
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/b11e50eb-en
Public spending family supports varies widely across OECD countries
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/60ebf41c-en
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/61dcb1c3-en
Acronyms and conventional signs
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/79a914e7-en
One in seven 15‑year‑olds smoke at least once a month
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/431f9867-en
Trust in national government varies across subgroups of the population
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/db1c83e0-en
Simultaneous trends of fewer and later births
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/8aae6f60-en
The number of deaths came close to the number of births across the OECD in 2021
OECD (2024) · Society at a glance · doi:10.1787/acbf999e-en
An Investigation of the Impact of Cultural Distance on the Digital Economy in China
Gu, J. (2025) · Journal of the Knowledge Economy · doi:10.1007/s13132-025-02591-2
“The growth of a region’s digital economy can reduce birth rates in culturally proximal areas as higher unemployment and lower productivity in areas of cultural proximity (Abidov et al., 2020) lead local young people to forgo marriage and childbearing (Seltzer, 2019).”
Job creation, job destruction, and fertility in Germany
Luo, C., & Jarosz, E. (2025) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2025.52.13
“Thus, this finding is consistent with the studies showing that the decline in employment in manufacturing, particularly for men, is associated with overall fertility decline (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2019; Seltzer 2019).”
Regional Development, Spatial Disparities, and Urbanization: A Comparative Approach
Salvati, L. (2025) · Springer geography · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-85799-7_3
Fertility and unemployment in times of crisis in Italy 21
García‐Pereiro, T., Pace, R., Patimo, R., & Misuraca, R. (2024) · Rivista italiana di economia, demografia e statistica · doi:10.71014/sieds.v78i2.267
Cartwright, A. F., Hussain, R., Mitchell, L., et al. (2025) · Contraception · doi:10.1016/j.contraception.2025.111182
Structural Constraints on Fertility Intentions Across National Contexts: A ResearchPreprint
Kim, J., & Wang, S. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5416277
Han, S. W., & Uchikoshi, F. (2026) · Chinese Sociological Review · doi:10.1080/21620555.2025.2612373 · Cited by 1
Kim, C., & Kim, D. (2026) · The Annals of Regional Science · doi:10.1007/s00168-026-01477-8
“The GFC led to qualitative aggravation (e.g., labor market polarization, reduced productivity, and job mismatch), which compromised regional economies’ sustainability (Seltzer 2019).”
Religiosity as Resilience: Rural–Urban Divorce Responses to Coal‐Fired Power Plant Closures
Pham, T., Jolley, G. J., & Sutherland, M. (2026) · American Journal of Economics and Sociology · doi:10.1111/ajes.70041
Decoupled? The Persistent Relevance of Marriage for Childbearing in the 2010s United States
Burke, K. L. (2026) · Demography · doi:10.1215/00703370-12530630
Economic resources and parity among US women: A conjoint experiment on preferred family scenarios
Behrman, J. A., Marshall, E. A., & Percheski, C. (2026) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2026.54.34
The Glass Is Half Full: The Safety Net for Low-Income Women Around Childbirth
Heflin, C. M., Morrissey, T. W., & Kim, H. (2026) · Demography · doi:10.1215/00703370-12786247
Sladká, D., & Matysiak, A. (2026) · Journal of Family Research · doi:10.20377/jfr-1363
“…shocks that western societies experienced in recent decades, caused by cyclical swings in the economy, the changes driven by technological change or globalization have produced structural shifts in labour demand which might change people’s economic prospects more permanently (Seltzer, 2019).”
Metadata
- Authors
- Seltzer, N.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Seltzer, Nathan
- ORCID
- Seltzer, Nathan
- Venue
- Demography
- Publisher
- Duke University Press
- Published
- 2019-06-18
- Volume
- 56
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1463-1493
- ISSN
- 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-7790
- PMC
- PMC7197790
- OpenAlex
- W2950717371
- Cited by
- 196
- References
- 104
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 22.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Demography (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Wisconsin-Madison (P2CHD047873)
- National Institute on Aging (T32AG000129)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD047873, P2CHD047873, T32HD007014)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Keywords
- fertility decline, labor market polarization, Great Recession, total fertility rate, structural unemployment, manufacturing decline, industry structure, financial uncertainty, childbearing decisions, racial and ethnic groups, urban labor markets, economic recovery
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Birth Rate, Employment, Ethnicity, Female, Humans, Middle Aged, Mothers, Socioeconomic Factors, Unemployment, United States, Urban Population, Racial Groups, Young Adult, Economic Recession
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