The DOI matches its Crossref record; 97 of the 104 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 17 of the 79 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006–2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition—specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses—have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time—in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles—further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.
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Claims the paper makes
43 Own result · 24 Own interpretation · 17 Sources not found · 14 Own method · 11 No basis given · 10 Partly supported · 9 No full text of the sources · 9 Not checked yet · 4 Supported · 1 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Delays in childbearing – even for a couple of years – can reduce lifetime fertility rates for cohorts of women (Bongaarts and Feeney 1998; Currie and Schwandt 2014; Morgan 2003; Ryder 1980).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Bongaarts and Feeney 1998 source
- Partly supportedcites Currie and Schwandt 2014 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results (page unavailable) report that cohorts exposed to high unemployment in their early 20s had fewer children in both the short and long term, rather than simply postponing births. This supports the possibility that a short-run fertility reduction can persist, but the paper does not establish that delaying childbearing by just a couple of years itself reduces lifetime fertility. (LLM, conf=0.84)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Morgan 2003 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“As economic prosperity diminishes during cyclical downturns and financial uncertainty and distress increases, women and couples postpone childbearing (Balbo et al. 2013; Buckles, Hungerman, and Lugauer 2018; Currie and Schwandt 2014).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Balbo et al. 2013 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Economic Trends section reports studies linking downturns and uncertainty to postponed childbearing, and the Economic and Employment Uncertainty section links precarious circumstances to delayed parenthood. But the review describes the evidence as mixed, including contrary cyclical findings and differences in how women respond to uncertainty. The claim states the pattern more generally than the source supports. (LLM, conf=0.84)
- Partly supportedcites Buckles, Hungerman, and Lugauer 2018 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction reports that conception growth declined around recent U.S. downturns, often before recessions began, and the Conclusion describes fertility as pro-cyclical. The paper does not establish that rising financial uncertainty or distress caused women and couples to postpone childbearing; it treats delayed births as a possibility rather than a demonstrated explanation. (LLM, conf=0.85)
- Partly supportedcites Currie and Schwandt 2014 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract (page unavailable) reports that fertility falls as unemployment rises, and the Results say reduced household income might help explain lower fertility during recessions. But the paper does not establish that financial uncertainty causes postponement; its Results find that women facing high unemployment in their early 20s do not just postpone births, but have fewer children in the long term. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
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In the paper
“Since the 1980s, the U.S. labor market has experienced declines in middle-skill, middle-income jobs in manufacturing and construction as a result of improvements in assembly line automation and the displacement of routine production jobs offshore, among other explanations (Acemoglu and Autor 2011; Autor, Katz, and Kearney 2006; Kalleberg 2009).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Acemoglu and Autor 2011 source
- Partly supportedcites Autor, Katz, and Kearney 2006 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract and Section II report employment growth favoring high- and low-wage jobs over middle-wage jobs in the 1990s, and the paper models computerization as displacing routine production tasks. They do not establish that declining middle-wage jobs were specifically in manufacturing and construction, or that offshoring caused those declines; Section III presents outsourcing only as a possible complementary mechanism. Section II also distinguishes the 1980s employment pattern from the polarization observed in the 1990s. (LLM, conf=0.87)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Kalleberg 2009 source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Since structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time, in contrast to unemployment rates which fluctuate with economic cycles”
- Also stated in: § STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS · plain
“once manufacturing and other goods-producing jobs disappear, they rarely return during post-recessional recovery periods (Abel and Deitz 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Abel and Deitz 2012 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Polarization of Employment (p. 3) says routine middle-skill jobs are lost largely during recessions and that employment in those jobs never recovers, supporting the persistence of a specific labor-market change. The paper does not discuss unemployment rates fluctuating with economic cycles or directly compare their duration with structural changes. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS · plain
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Racial differences in labor market occupational distributions are also attributed to employer discrimination (Pager and Pedulla 2015).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Pager and Pedulla 2015 source
In “Additional Considerations > Sorting by Firm or Job?” (page unavailable), the paper reports evidence that employers discriminate more against African Americans in client-facing jobs and channel black applicants toward back-of-house jobs. That supports employer discrimination as a contributor to racial differences in the kinds of jobs workers hold. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Currie and Schwandt’s (2014) comprehensive analysis of state-level fertility trends between 1975–2010 suggests that increased unemployment during economic recessions was associated with short-term and long-term reductions in fertility for women in their early 20s.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Currie and Schwandt’s (2014) source
The paper’s Abstract reports an analysis of US birth records from 1975–2010 and finds that high unemployment reduced fertility among women in their early 20s in both the short and long run. The Results likewise state that the short-term response was strongest at ages 20–24 and that cohorts facing high unemployment at those ages had fewer children in both periods. (LLM, conf=0.94)
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Jaimovich and Siu (2012), examining rebounds in job loss across occupational categories after every economic recession in the U.S. since the 1970s, find that an overwhelming proportion of permanent job loss in middle-skill positions since the 1980s occurred during periods of economic recession rather than periods between economic recessions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Jaimovich and Siu (2012) source
The Introduction reports that 88% of job loss in routine, middle-skill occupations since the mid-1980s occurred within a 12-month window around NBER-dated recessions. Section 3.2 says employment in these occupations did not recover in the short, medium, or long term. The paper measures loss around recessions, rather than strictly within their official dates. (LLM, conf=0.90)
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Importantly, once manufacturing and other goods-producing jobs disappear, they rarely return during post-recessional recovery periods (Abel and Deitz 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Abel and Deitz 2012 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Polarization of Employment (p. 3) says routine middle-skill jobs are lost almost exclusively during recessions and their employment levels never recover. The Economic Forces behind Job Polarization (p. 2) identifies manufacturing as especially exposed and says goods-producing jobs are disproportionately middle-skill, but it does not extend the recovery finding to all manufacturing and other goods-producing jobs. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“During the post-recession period, availability and usage of long acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) increased substantially (Branum and Jones 2015; Finer, Jerman, and Kavanaugh 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Branum and Jones 2015
- Partly supportedcites Finer, Jerman, and Kavanaugh 2012 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results report that LARC use among U.S. contraceptors rose substantially from 3.7% in 2007 to 8.5% in 2009. The paper does not establish that availability also increased substantially, and its 2007–2009 comparison does not specifically establish a post-recession trend. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Most research examining the influence of the Great Recession on teenage fertility rates finds little empirical evidence of a significant relationship with unemployment rates (Boonstra 2014; Lindberg, Santelli, and Desai 2016; Percheski and Kimbro 2014).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Boonstra 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Could not verifycites Lindberg, Santelli, and Desai 2016 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The paper’s introductory discussion says prior research examined economic factors in declining adolescent fertility, but it does not report whether unemployment rates had a significant relationship with teenage fertility. Searches for Great Recession, unemployment, and job loss found no passage in our copy that assesses that relationship; the Discussion instead addresses sexual activity and contraceptive use. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.74)
- Not matchedcites Percheski and Kimbro 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“At the same time, rates of unintended pregnancy declined considerably (Finer and Zolna 2016).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Finer and Zolna 2016 source
The Results, under ‘Findings at the National Level,’ report that the U.S. unintended-pregnancy rate fell from 54 to 45 per 1,000 women and girls aged 15–44 between 2008 and 2011—an 18% decline. The Discussion also describes the decline as substantial. (LLM, conf=0.95)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The data used in the present analysis indicate that the average percentage of goods-producing businesses in metropolitan statistical areas decreased from 16.66% in 2006 to 14.24% in 2014, a 2.42 percentage point decline (Figure 1).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The findings also indicate that Hispanic fertility is substantially more responsive to the loss of goods-producing businesses than white, black, and Asian fertility.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The findings suggest that changes in industry composition – specifically, the loss of manufacturing and construction businesses – have a larger effect on TFR than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“The findings of the present study suggest that structural changes in U.S. labor markets have a larger effect on TFR than changes in unemployment rates for all racial/ethnic groups during the 2006–2014 period.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The graph shows that the share of workers employed in goods-producing industries declined from 29% in 1987 to 14.7% in 2014.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By the end of the period, Hispanic TFR had dropped below black TFR.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Hispanic women experienced the largest decline in TFR, from approximately 2.9 in 2006 to 2.2 in 2014, a 24 percent drop.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With exception of the Hispanic models, the unemployment rate parameter estimates were mostly small in size and non-significant once labor market polarization was included in the models.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At the beginning of the period, 1991, goods-producing businesses comprised an average of 18.28% of all businesses in MSAs; by the end of the period, 2014, goods-producing businesses comprised an average of 14.24% of all businesses in MSAs, an overall 4.04 percentage point decrease (Figure 1).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, the unemployment rate coefficient for white women diminishes in size and significance.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“for Hispanic women, the unemployment rate coefficient slightly diminishes between the 2006–2010 period (β = −.033) and the 2011–2014 period (β = −.026).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The inclusion of this measure into the statistical analysis, which adjusts for compositional changes in the Hispanic population, does little to alter the main results for the goods-producing and unemployment parameter estimates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In Model 3, a one-point increase in the percentage of goods-producing businesses in a MSA is associated with a .020 increase in TFR for white women (S.E. = .001), a .051 increase in TFR for black women (S.E. = .004), a .023 increase for Asian women (S.E. = .005), and a .035 increase for Hispanic women. (S.E. = .005).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In these models, the coefficients are positively and significantly associated with TFR for white, black, Asian, and Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The estimates in Model 2 suggest that a decline of this magnitude predicts an average decline in TFR of .051 for white women, .053 for black women, .066 for Asian women, and .141 for Hispanic women throughout the entire period.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When operationalized as the logged number of goods-producing businesses (Models 1–2, Online Appendix Table S4a), labor market polarization similarly explains more variation than the unemployment rate for three out of the four racial/ethnic groups.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since the percentage of goods-producing businesses in metropolitan areas declined by an average of 4.04 percentage points over this 24-year period, the estimates from model 3 predict that changes in industry composition accounted for an average decline in TFR of .081 for white women, .206 for black women, .093 for Asian women, and .141 for Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the goods-producing businesses coefficients diminish in size and significance for black and Asian women in all models.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The percentage of goods-producing businesses in all MSAs declined an average of 2.42 percentage points between 2006 and 2014 (Figure 4, Panel B).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results from Model 4 indicate that the effect size of the percentage of goods-producing businesses coefficient remain similar and statistically significant during the post-recession period as they did for the pre-recession/recession period for white, Asian, and Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Moreover, accounting for gender-specific trends in unemployment and labor force participation, the results from these models suggest little change from the main results.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A one percentage point increase in goods-producing businesses in a MSA is associated with a .021 increase in TFR for white women (S.E. = .002), a .022 increase in TFR for black women (S.E. = .008), a .027 increase for Asian women (S.E. = .010), and a .058 increase for Hispanic women. (S.E. = .008).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Substituting racial/ethnic-specific covariates for MSA-specific covariates (Models 4, Online appendix Table S4a) does not substantively change the results of the ACS subset analysis in Table 4 (Model 3).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results from these alternate specifications yield comparable results to those in Table 3.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Upon adding these additional covariates, the coefficients and standard errors for the percentage of goods-producing businesses and the unemployment rate remain approximately comparable to those in the previous full 381 MSA analysis for all models estimated above, with several important exceptions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For Hispanic women, the coefficient for the unemployment rate remains sizeable and precisely estimated.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“There was no significant effect of structural or cyclical economic conditions on age-specific fertility rates for black or Asian women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For all racial/ethnic groups, the largest effect sizes for the goods-producing businesses coefficients are concentrated towards women in their 20s.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In fact, 33% of the Hispanic labor force was employed in goods-producing industries prior to the recession in 2007, whereas only 22.5% of whites, 20% of Asians, and 18% of blacks were employed in goods-producing industries at that time (Figure 2).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The magnitude of the coefficient estimates of labor market polarization on fertility rates was nearly three times larger for Hispanic women than for white women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
In the paper
“Morgan and colleagues’ (2011) analysis of state-level economic and fertility trends during the Great Recession suggests that larger increases in unemployment are associated with larger decreases in fertility rates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Morgan and colleagues’ (2011)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, few empirical studies support this theoretical perspective in contemporary U.S. or European contexts (Cherlin et al. 2013; Morgan, Cumberworth, and Wimer 2011).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cherlin et al. 2013 source
- Not matchedcites Morgan, Cumberworth, and Wimer 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the results indicate that structural characteristics of U.S. labor markets are as important, if not more important, than short-term swings in unemployment in predicting decreased levels of TFR in recent years.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Importantly, the findings from this study help explain why fertility rates continues to decline in the United States despite the presence of indicators of employment and income that would otherwise predict a return to pre-recession fertility levels.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, both brief and sustained changes in macroeconomic conditions have long term implications for population change and renewal.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time, in contrast to unemployment rates which fluctuate with economic cycles, further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“the results of this study indicate that further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“The 2007–2009 financial crisis led to immediate reductions in fertility in the United States and Europe (Hamilton and Sutton 2012; Matysiak, Sobotka, and Vignoli 2014).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton and Sutton 2012
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Matysiak, Sobotka, and Vignoli 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This ongoing fertility decline in the U.S. is at odds with slow, yet steady improvements in economic conditions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The smallest identifiable geographic unit in the 1-year public release ACS estimates are public use microdata areas (PUMAs) which have a minimum of 100,000 residents. As a result, ACS estimates used to generate covariates are only available for MSAs with greater than 100,000 residents.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Data
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The aggregate trend of decreased fertility in the U.S. during the Great Recession conceals substantial variation across racial/ethnic subgroups.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Cherlin and colleagues’ (2013) analysis indicated an 11 percent decrease in TFR between 2007 and 2011 – a drop from a 2.1 to 1.9.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Cherlin and colleagues’ (2013)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Valletta and van der List (2015), for instance, find structural changes in industry composition to contribute to involuntary part-time work in the years following the Great Recession.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Valletta and van der List (2015)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“First, Hispanic women experienced large decreases in fertility following the start of the Great Recession (Martin et al. 2014).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Martin et al. 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Reemployment for many who lost jobs during the Great Recession did not necessarily return economic security and stability to pre-recession levels (Janoski et al. 2014; Moretti 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Janoski et al. 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Moretti 2012
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“The variation in fertility trends across race and ethnicity throughout this period is particularly striking and may reflect differential economic impacts experienced in domains such as housing foreclosure (Hall et al. 2015; Rugh 2015), wealth loss (McKernan et al. 2014; Pfeffer et al. 2016), and job loss (Holder 2017, 2015; Hout and Cumberworth 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“By 2013, six years after the onset of the Great Recession, the national TFR remained below the level of population replacement (Martin et al. 2015).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Martin et al. 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Workers displaced from positions in goods-producing industries must find new work in service-providing industries which often provide fewer hours, lower pay, and scarcer benefits (Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Department of Labor 2016; Janoski et al. 2014; Kalleberg 2009).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Department of Labor 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Janoski et al. 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Kalleberg 2009 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“These differential economic consequences of the Great Recession across race/ethnicity also reflect a broader history of labor market stratification.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“This constrained upward mobility is reflected in the structure of educational and occupational networks which act as barriers to high-level professions for black and Latino workers (Catanzarite and Aguilera 2002; Cohen and Huffman 2007; Kmec 2003; Royster 2003).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Cherlin and colleagues (2013), for instance, find larger decreases in past-year births for Hispanic women than non-Hispanic women between 2008–2011.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Cherlin and colleagues (2013)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Accordingly, fixed characteristics of a metropolitan area are inherently controlled for in this analysis.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Although black occupational and socioeconomic mobility increased throughout the middle of the 20th century, the economic downturn of the late 1970s largely constrained upward occupational mobility in the years to follow (Bound, Dresser, and Browne 1999; Pattillo 2013).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bound, Dresser, and Browne 1999
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Pattillo 2013 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Schneider’s (2015) analysis of county- and state-level fertility trends throughout the Great Recession suggests that both national and state trends in unemployment were negatively associated with general fertility rates (GFR).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Schneider’s (2015)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“This mechanism is consistent with findings on the association between work precarity and fertility and family formation (Brauner-Otto and Geist 2018; Lim 2017; Modena and Sabatini 2012; Piotrowski, Kalleberg, and Rindfuss 2015; White and Rogers 2000; Yu and Sun 2018).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The analysis presented here demonstrates how structural changes in U.S. labor markets help explain trends in declining fertility rates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
boostedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
- Rests on an assumption: The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overlooked in past research on fertility behavior, labor market polarization signifies a permanent change in the financial outlook of American workers, especially for those without a college degree.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, the empirical results from this extended period analysis bolster the theoretical argument that ongoing structural trends in the labor market have contributed to fertility decline over the past several decades.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
boostedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
- Rests on an assumption: The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the results from Model 4 demonstrate how reductions in the percentage of goods-producing businesses in a MSA contributed not only to declines in TFR throughout the recession, but also during the post-recession recovery period.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
- Rests on an assumption: The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The “hollowing out” of the middle of the occupational income distribution results in decreased financial security for American workers as they seek to start or expand families.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As long as goods-producing businesses remain a smaller share of the overall industry composition of U.S. metropolitan areas, the models presented here indicate that fertility rates will remain below their pre-recession levels.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
- Rests on an assumption: The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results also suggest a more heterogenous picture regarding the pro-cyclicity of economic cycles and fertility rates during the Great Recession.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results were robust to alternative measures of employment, including sex-specific unemployment rates, sex-specific employment-to-population ratios, and the overall employment-to-population ratio.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“As businesses, and therefore jobs, in goods-producing industries disappear, displaced workers who wish to remain in the labor force must find employment in the lower paid, lower-skill service sector that provides jobs with fewer hours, lower pay, and scarcer benefits (Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Department of Labor 2016; Janoski et al. 2014; Kalleberg 2009).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Department of Labor 2016
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Janoski et al. 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Kalleberg 2009 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Importantly, once goods-producing businesses disappear from American cities – either as a result of offshoring or improvements in assembly line automation – they tend to not return (Autor and Dorn 2013).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Autor and Dorn 2013 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These findings held even upon adjusting for the unemployment rate and additional economic and noneconomic covariates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The present analysis suggests that labor market polarization contributed to the decline in fertility rates throughout the entire decade spanning the Great Recession, including the post-recession period between 2011–2014.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
- Rests on an assumption: The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, however, these results provide evidence that structural changes in labor markets (i.e. the loss of goods-producing businesses) are more predictive of fertility decline than cyclical changes (i.e. unemployment), at least when examining fertility across racial and ethnic groups at the metropolitan level.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
- Rests on an assumption: The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the results suggest that births are likely being delayed rather than entirely foregone.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“In absolute terms, as well, there were more Hispanic workers in manufacturing, construction, and mining/extraction industries than there are black and Asian workers combined in 2007 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2008).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2008
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Accordingly, I cannot directly test how individual-level financial uncertainty influences fertility decision-making.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To the extent that labor market restructuring changed the demand for children and the attendant demand for contraception with lower failure rates, LARC take-up is an explanation of post-recession fertility decline that is consistent with the findings presented here.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Differences in occupational distributions across racial and ethnic groups might partially explain this finding because groups with a larger share of workers in goods-producing industries would be disproportionately affected by the disappearance of these businesses.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the numerators of the equation, birth counts, represent a full enumeration of all new births in U.S. metropolitan statistical areas between 1991–2014, the denominators of the equation, population counts, draw on bridged-race population estimates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is therefore likely that compositional differences account for some of the differential impact.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The large share of Hispanic workers in the goods-producing sector might also explain why the unemployment rate coefficient remained sizeable and significant for Hispanic fertility.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Schneider and Gemmill (2016) find that increases in regional LARC usage between 2003–2014 partially accounted for state-level declines in the non-marital fertility rate, especially for Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Schneider and Gemmill 2016 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 42
- Probably not a substantial claim. 19
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Past research on labor market polarization has established that the goods-producing business sector contains a disproportionate share of middle-skill, middle-income jobs and therefore represents an appropriate measure of local labor market polarization (Abel and Deitz 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Measures
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Abel and Deitz 2012 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Economic Forces behind Job Polarization (p. 2) says the goods-producing sector employs a disproportionate share of middle-skill workers. But for its regional analysis, Job Polarization in New York and Northern New Jersey (p. 5) measures changes in employment across four skill groups; it does not establish the goods-producing sector as an appropriate measure of local polarization. (LLM, conf=0.88)
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Although this finding contrasts with earlier studies on the Great Recession which find considerable evidence of pro-cyclicality (e.g. Currie and Schwandt 2014; Morgan et al. 2011; Schneider 2015), this discrepancy might be explained by the extended time period of the present study and the geographic level examined.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Supportedcites Currie and Schwandt 2014 source
Split into 2 atoms — 2 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not matchedcites Morgan et al. 2011
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Schneider 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Consequently, the search for re-employment for non-white workers after economic recessions has been more drawn out than for whites, entailing lengthier spells of unemployment and therefore increased periods of financial precarity (Couch and Fairlie 2010; Hout and Cumberworth 2012).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites Couch and Fairlie 2010 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Unemployment Transitions section reports that unemployed Black men were less likely than white men to be reemployed the following month (29.4% versus 33.6%), supporting a slower return to work for the group studied. But the Conclusion says this reemployment gap did not change over the business cycle. The paper studies Black men rather than all non-white workers, and the cited passages do not establish increased financial precarity. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hout and Cumberworth 2012 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Discrimination in hiring practices by employers has played a significant role in perpetuating these racial disparities, constructing social barriers towards stable and long-term employment (Fryer, Pager, and Spenkuch 2013; Pager, Bonikowski, and Western 2009).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Fryer, Pager, and Spenkuch 2013
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Partly supportedcites Pager, Bonikowski, and Western 2009 sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Experimental Results (Race-Coded Job Channeling, page unavailable) describe racial barriers in hiring that reduce minority applicants’ chances of employment, supporting the claim about disparities and barriers. The Discussion (page unavailable) says discrimination may have long-term effects, but the study examines hiring decisions, not whether applicants obtain stable, long-term employment. (LLM, conf=0.86)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Throughout this nine-year period, Hispanics had the highest percentage of workers employed in goods-producing industries, followed by whites. Black and Asian workers had the smallest percentage of workers in goods-producing industries.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“white TFR declined 7.7%, black TFR declined 7%, and Asian TFR declined 7.8% between 2006–2014.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For all racial/ethnic groups, TFR began to decline in 2008, although at different rates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In Online Appendix Table S2, I substitute the rate of single/never-married in an MSA for the MSA divorce rate for the population age 15–64. The results from these ACS models are likewise comparable to the previous ACS subset models.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In regard to the unemployment rate, the coefficients remain non-significant for black and Asian women, and close to zero for white women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the overall decline in TFR between 2006–2014 was .136 for white women, .139 for black women, .143 for Asian women, .547 for Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Panel B displays a sharp decline in the average share of goods-producing businesses in MSAs at the start of the Great Recession. The rate of decline decreased and leveled off towards the end of the period in 2014.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results indicate a significant, negative association between the unemployment rate and TFR for non-Hispanic white women (β = −.007 S.E. = .001), non-Hispanic black women (β = −.012; S.E. = .005), non-Hispanic Asian women (β = −.016; S.E. = .007), and Hispanic women (β = .036; S.E. = .005).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: unclear — It is unclear whether the authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While labor market polarization was found to influence TFR for all racial/ethnic groups throughout the extended period analysis, the effect size is substantially larger in magnitude for women of color than for whites, particularly black and Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results are substantively comparable to the results from the 2006–2014 analysis for the percentage goods-producing coefficients (Table 3), although the effect size is largest for black women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For MSA-level unemployment, the coefficients suggest that the relationship between the unemployment rate and racial/ethnic total fertility rate remained pro-cyclical throughout the entire period for white and Asian women, but not for black and Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the effect size of the percentage of goods-producing businesses coefficients remain similar to those estimated in Model 2 for all racial/ethnic groups, although their magnitude slightly diminishes. In contrast, the coefficients for the unemployment rate attenuate in both size and significance in comparison to the coefficients estimated in Model 1.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“declines in the percentage of goods-producing businesses on average account for 37% of overall TFR declines for white women, 38% of overall TFR declines for black women, 46% of overall TFR declines for Asian women, and 26% of overall TFR declines for Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the average MSA unemployment rate increased sharply at the start of the Great Recession in 2008 and then slowly declined after 2011.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While the coefficient for the percentage of goods-producing businesses does not change across time periods for white women, it slightly increases for Asian women and slightly decreases for Hispanic women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Comparing coefficients across racial and ethnic groups (Eq. 3), the results indicate that the effect size for the goods-producing businesses parameters is significantly larger for Hispanics than for whites, blacks, and Asians. There is no significant difference between the coefficients for the latter three groups.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Throughout this 24-year period, the average unemployment rate was 6.2%, although cyclical economic expansions and contractions resulted in an average low of 4.2 % in 2001 and an average high of 9.6% in 2011.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Long-Term Structural Change, 1991–2014
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The age-specific fertility rate models also suggest that fertility rates for teenage women ages 15–19 were significantly responsive to changes in structural economic conditions for both white and Hispanic women and changes in cyclical economic conditions for white women.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Since the effect size is small and mostly non-significant for women in their 30s and 40s, the results suggest that births are likely being delayed rather than entirely foregone.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“The total fertility rate for the United States remained below replacement at about 1.77 births per woman in 2017 (Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017; Martin, Hamilton, and Osterman 2018), down from 2.12 births per woman in 2007.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Martin, Hamilton, and Osterman 2018
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Researchers theorize a pro-cyclical relationship between economic conditions and fertility behavior: fertility rates increase during economic expansions and decrease during economic recessions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“the national unemployment rate returned to its pre-recession level of 4.7% in May 2016 (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017) and median household income surpassed pre-recession levels in 2015 (Semega, Fontenot, and Kollar 2017).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Bureau of Labor Statistics 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Semega, Fontenot, and Kollar 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This process of “labor market polarization” has reduced employment demand for jobs in the middle of the occupational skills distribution while increasing employment demand for lower-paid, low-skill service sector positions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“McKernan et al. (2014), for instance, find that while white families experienced an average decrease in family wealth of approximately 26.2% following the Great Recession, black and Hispanic families lost 47.6% and 44.3%, respectively.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites McKernan et al. (2014) source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“According to national vital statistics records on fertility between 2007 to 2015 (Hamilton et al. 2017), GFR decreased 3% for non-Hispanic whites, 10% for non-Hispanic blacks, 10% for Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 36% for Hispanics.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton et al. 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“The analytic method used in the present analysis, fixed-effects, controls for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity that enters the specifications linearly and additively (Allison 2009).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Allison 2009 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Fixed-effects analyses, however, do not account for time-varying sources of unobserved heterogeneity.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“Cherlin and colleagues (2013) likewise finds variation across age groups during the Great Recession: while younger women experienced decreases in age-specific GFR, women in their 40s continued having children at the same pre-recession age-specific GFR levels.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Cherlin and colleagues (2013)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“between 2007–2009, employment in occupational categories of production, craft, and repair decreased by 17% and employment in occupational categories of operators, fabricators, and laborers decreased by 15% (Autor 2010).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Autor 2010
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of 13,709 total TFR observations, 159 exceed 4.0. I remove these cases from the analytic sample to ensure that outliers are not influencing the regression results. The inclusion of these values in the models, however, does not substantively change the results.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Measures
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“research on occupational shifts of African American men during the Great Recession by Holder (2015) indicates that black men experienced declines in representation in high-wage and middle-wage occupational categories between 2005–2006 and 2010–2011, while non-Hispanic white men experienced only minor shifts in their representation in the same occupational categories.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Holder (2015)
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim could be matched to a paper in Crossref, so there is nothing to check it against.
In the paper
“Only in 2014 did the TFR briefly reverse course and increase before decreasing yet more through 2017 (Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017; Martin et al. 2018).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > CYCLICAL TRENDS IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND FERTILITY BEHAVIOR
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton and Kirmeyer 2017
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not matchedcites Martin et al. 2018
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Additionally, because the availability of goods-producing jobs in a local area is a matter of supply, the distribution of business establishments, rather than the distribution of workers across occupations, is the preferred measurement of structural labor market conditions.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Measures
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The use of local-area population estimates in conjunction with birth records to calculate TFR generates a few implausible TFR values.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Measures
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Second, black and Asian/Pacific Islander fertility rates decreased more sharply than white fertility rates, but less than Hispanic fertility rates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RACIAL/ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DURING THE GREAT RECESSION
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The present analysis relies on population-level data and cannot test how individual-level factors influence fertility decision-making.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To minimize threats to causal inference, I include a set of theoretically relevant covariates that are lagged one year (Table 1).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Overall, economic recessions have hastened permanent structural changes in U.S. labor markets and have reduced the demand for middle-wage, middle-income jobs.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“One plausible mechanism through which this macroeconomic relationship may operate is individual-level financial uncertainty, initiated by job displacement from manufacturing, construction, and other goods-producing industries.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN U.S. LABOR MARKETS
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In total, this battery of alternate specifications yields comparable results to the previously estimated models in Table 3 and Table 4, suggesting that the findings are largely robust.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS > Robustness Checks
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
- Rests on an assumption: The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Job loss in goods-producing industries is more devastating for non-white workers since racial disparities in employment exist even during economically prosperous times (Janoski et al. 2014; Moore 2010).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Janoski et al. 2014
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Moore 2010 source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In fact, fertility rates continue to decline, with 2017 reaching an unprecedented national low for general fertility rates (Hamilton et al. 2018).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Hamilton et al. 2018
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Researchers have overlooked important long-term structural changes in U.S. labor markets, particularly the decline of manufacturing and construction industries, and the coincident rise of low-paid jobs in service industries.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the bridged-race population estimates used in the present analysis are the same source of population estimates used by the NCHS when they generate and distribute public release vital statistics figures, including fertility rates, and are regarded as the best source of population data for this task.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the present analysis uses aggregate data and is susceptible to ecologically fallacious inference; the findings should only be interpreted in terms of population-level behavior patterns, not individual-level choices.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Past research suggests that these trends contributed to post-recession fertility declines (Fletcher and Polos 2017; Schneider and Gemmill 2016).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“However, the association between structural labor market changes and fertility dates at least to the early 1990s (Table 5) before major increases in LARC availability and usage (Branum and Jones 2015), suggesting that LARCs may be part of but not the entire story of the present findings.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Branum and Jones 2015
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite these limitations, this study offers an innovative economic explanation for why fertility rates in the United States continue to decline.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Second, the TFR measure relies on both administrative data and population estimates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Rests on an assumption: The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the denominators of the equation, population counts, draw on bridged-race population estimates.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Rests on an assumption: The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By proposing a structural economic explanation for why fertility rates continues to decline, this study contributes to the understanding of how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility behavior and decision-making.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Prevailing theoretical perspectives on how economic conditions influence fertility have primarily relied on cyclical measures of economic change.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DISCUSSION and CONCLUSION
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper relies on this without support.
The percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area adequately captures the labor market polarization or structural change relevant to fertility.
“In Model 2, I estimate the effect of labor market polarization, measured as the percentage of goods-producing businesses in a metropolitan area, on TFR without the inclusion of the unemployment rate parameter.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The two-way fixed-effects models with the included covariates adequately control for unmeasured time-varying metropolitan-area characteristics that could confound the association between labor market polarization and fertility.
“Since the specifications presented above do not account for several unmeasured, time-varying metropolitan area characteristics that might influence the results, I conduct a series of robustness checks which test alternate specifications of these models.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The bridged-race population estimates used as denominators are accurate enough for calculating total fertility rates.
“the denominators of the equation, population counts, draw on bridged-race population estimates.”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
“The results indicate a significant, negative association between the unemployment rate and TFR for non-Hispanic white women (β = −.007 S.E. = .001), non-Hispanic black women (β = −.012; S.E. = .005), non-Hispanic Asian women (β = −.016; S.E. = .007), and Hispanic women (β = .036; S.E. = .005).”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
“Hispanic women (β = .036; S.E. = .005).”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
“The results indicate a significant, negative association between the unemployment rate and TFR”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > RESULTS
“Hispanic women (β = .036; S.E. = .005).”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
“where the β coefficients represent the average value for the post-recession period (ppostrecession), while the γ coefficients represent the average difference in coefficients for the pre-recession/recession and post-recession periods.”
§ Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States > DATA and METHODS > Control variables
“with an interacted set of binary-coded vectors for the post-recession period ppostrecesssion with vectors xmt (Eq. 4). The model is estimated as follows: (Eq. 4)TFRmrt = βxmt + γ(xmt * pmt) + αm + μmt”
Citations
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“2014), researchers have identified technological advances in assembly line automation and the offshoring of routine production jobs as major causes (Autor et al. 2006; Kalleberg 2009).”
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Cited by
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Determinants of Disparities in Covid-19 Job Losses
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“Beyond labor market outcomes, large economic and social events also influence fertility (Grossman and Slusky 2019; Seltzer 2019), marriage (Schneider and Hastings 2015), migration (Sastry and Gregory 2014) and children’s well-being (Cools et al.”
The Demography of Families: A Review of Patterns and Change
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“…2011), but there is no consensus about whether the decline represents a temporary postponement or whether the total number of children women eventually have will be negatively affected by the recession (Astone, Martin, & Peters, 2015; Cherlin et al., 2013; Currie & Schwandt, 2014; Seltzer, 2019).”
Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries
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Metadata
- Authors
- Seltzer, N.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Seltzer, Nathan
- ORCID
- Seltzer, Nathan
- Venue
- Demography
- Publisher
- Duke University Press
- Published
- 2019-06-18
- Volume
- 56
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1463-1493
- ISSN
- 0070-3370 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-7790
- PMC
- PMC7197790
- OpenAlex
- W2950717371
- Cited by
- 196
- References
- 104
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 16 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 22.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Demography (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Wisconsin-Madison (P2CHD047873)
- National Institute on Aging (T32AG000129)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD047873, P2CHD047873, T32HD007014)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Keywords
- fertility decline, labor market polarization, Great Recession, total fertility rate, structural unemployment, manufacturing decline, industry structure, financial uncertainty, childbearing decisions, racial and ethnic groups, urban labor markets, economic recovery
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Birth Rate, Employment, Ethnicity, Female, Humans, Middle Aged, Mothers, Socioeconomic Factors, Unemployment, United States, Urban Population, Racial Groups, Young Adult, Economic Recession
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