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Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings
Open accessAbstract
We investigated early behavioural markers of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using the Autism Observational Scale for Infants (AOSI) in a prospective familial high-risk (HR) sample of infant siblings (N=54) and low-risk (LR) controls (N=50). The AOSI was completed at 7 and 14 month infant visits and children were seen again at age 24 and 36 months. Diagnostic outcome of ASD (HR-ASD) versus no ASD (HR-No ASD) was determined for the HR sample at the latter timepoint. The HR group scored higher than the LR group at 7 months and marginally but non-significantly higher than the LR group at 14 months, although these differences did not remain when verbal and nonverbal developmental level were covaried. The HR-ASD outcome group had higher AOSI scores than the LR group at 14 months but not 7 months, even when developmental level was taken into account. The HR-No ASD outcome group had scores intermediate between the HR-ASD and LR groups. At both timepoints a few individual items were higher in the HR-ASD and HR-No ASD outcome groups compared to the LR group and these included both social (e.g. orienting to name) and non-social (e.g. visual tracking) behaviours. AOSI scores at 14 months but not at 7 months were moderately correlated with later scores on the autism diagnostic observation schedule (ADOS) suggesting continuity of autistic-like behavioural atypicality but only from the second and not first year of life. The scores of HR siblings who did not go on to have ASD were intermediate between the HR-ASD outcome and LR groups, consistent with the notion of a broader autism phenotype.
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TL;DR
In a prospective BASIS sample of 104 infants (54 high-risk [HR], 50 low-risk [LR]), AOSI scores differentiated HR from LR at 7 months but not after controlling for developmental level, while at 14 months AOSI scores differentiated HR-ASD from LR and marginally from HR-No ASD. AOSI scores at 14 months, but not 7 months, were moderately associated with later ADOS scores at 24 and 36 months in the HR group.
Key findings
- At 7 months, HR infants had higher AOSI total scores than LR infants, F(1, 102) = 4.10, p < .045, d = .39; at 14 months the HR vs LR difference was not significant, F(1, 99) = 3.36, p = .07, d = .36. Covarying Mullen Verbal and Nonverbal T-scores attenuated HR vs LR differences at both ages (7 m: p = .37; 14 m: p = .14).
- At 14 months, the three-group comparison was significant, F(2, 96) = 4.43, p = .014: HR-ASD scored higher than LR (p = .01, d = .81) and marginally higher than HR-No ASD (p = .07, d = .65). After covarying Mullen scores, the 14-month group difference remained, F(4, 93) = 3.85, p = .03, with HR-ASD > LR (p < .01) and HR-ASD > HR-No ASD (p = .03); HR-No ASD and LR did not differ (p = .53).
- Individual AOSI items: at 7 months HR and LR did not differ on any item, but at 14 months HR scored higher on orientation to name (U = 931.00, p < .01). Outcome-group item differences occurred at 7 months for visual tracking (χ² = 9.99, p < .01; HR-No ASD > LR, U = 634.50, p < .01) and social referencing (χ² = 10.78, p < .01; HR-ASD > LR, U = 206.50, p < .01), and at 14 months for orientation to name (χ² = 11.50, p < .01; HR-No ASD > LR, U = 596.00, p < .01; HR-ASD > LR, U = 282.50, p < .01), engagement of attention (χ² = 9.75, p < .01; no significant post-hoc tests), and social referencing (χ² = 9.75, p < .01; no significant post-hoc tests).
- In the HR group, AOSI at 7 months was not associated with ADOS at 24 months (r = .23, p = .10) or 36 months (r = .16, p = .27); AOSI at 14 months was associated with ADOS at 24 months (r = .30, p = .03) and 36 months (r = .38, p = .005).
Methods
- Prospective British Autism Study of Infant Siblings (BASIS) cohort: 104 children (54 HR, 50 LR) seen at approximately 7 months (mean = 7.35, SD = 1.21), 14 months (mean = 13.79, SD = 1.46), 24 months (mean = 23.9, SD = .95), and 36 months (mean = 37.93, SD = 3.02). HR infants had an older sibling with a community clinical ASD diagnosis; LR controls had no ASD in first-degree relatives.
- The Autism Observational Scale for Infants (AOSI), a 19-item experimenter-led semi-structured assessment, was administered at 7 and 14 months; total score maximum = 44. Double-coding agreement was excellent at 7 months (n = 92, ICC = .97) and 14 months (n = 85, ICC = .95). At 36 months, 17 HR toddlers met ICD-10 criteria for ASD (HR-ASD) and 36 did not (HR-No ASD); LR controls received no formal clinical diagnosis.
- AOSI total scores were square-root transformed and compared using ANOVA/Tukey tests; individual items used Mann–Whitney/Kruskal–Wallis tests with p < .01; Pearson correlations examined AOSI–ADOS associations in the HR group; Mullen Verbal and Nonverbal T-scores were covaried in follow-up analyses.
Limitations
- The paper states findings are preliminary due to modest sample size and require confirmation in larger and other independent samples. It also states assessments were non-blind to risk status at infancy and toddler assessments, although the toddler team was blind to infant AOSI scores.
- The paper notes item-level findings should be considered exploratory because a strict correction for multiple testing was not undertaken and require replication.
- The paper reports a recurrence rate of 32.1%, higher than the 18.7% in Ozonoff et al. (2011), and states this likely reflects the modest at-risk sample and may not be generalizable. Evident from the text: LR controls lacked a full developmental history and no ADI-R was administered, so no formal clinical diagnoses were assigned to that group.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As shown in Table 2, at 7 m the HR group had a higher AOSI score than the LR group F(1, 102) = 4.10, p < .045 (d = .39).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR versus LR group differences
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, when Mullen Verbal and Nonverbal T-score at each age point was covaried, the difference between the HR and LR groups was no longer significant (7 m: F(3, 99) = .66, p = .37; 14 m: F(3, 96) = 2.24, p = .14).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR versus LR group differences
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesNone of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Furthermore, in line with the BAP concept (Georgiades et al., 2013; Ozonoff et al., 2014), HR siblings who did not go on to have an ASD also showed higher levels of atypical behaviour at 7 m (visual tracking) and 14 m (orientation to name), compared to LR controls.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Individual items
What the sources say
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At 14 m, the three outcome group comparison was significant F(2, 96) = 4.43, p = .014.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR outcome group differences
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Post-hoc Tukey tests showed that the HR-ASD group scored higher than the LR group (p = .01; d = .81).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR outcome group differences
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Whilst the ELC scores of the HR siblings were in the average range, at each visit their scores were lower than those for the LR controls (t-tests, all ps < .01).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Methods > Developmental assessments and outcome groups
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The HR-No ASD outcome group scored intermediate between the HR-ASD outcome group and the LR control group.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Comparing AOSI scores for the HR-ASD and HR-No ASD outcome groups and the LR group, at 7 m the one-way ANOVA just missed significance F(2, 98) = 2.94, p = .058 (see Table 2 and Fig. 1).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR outcome group differences
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“First, the HR versus LR group comparisons are modest only in effect size (.39 at 7 months and .36 at 14 months).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, in those HR infants who went on to meet diagnostic criteria for ASD at 36 months by the 14 month timepoint the effect sizes were large (.81 compared to the LR controls; .65 compared to HR infants who did not go on to meet criteria for ASD at 36 months.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Early behavioural atypicalities measured by the AOSI at 12 months have also been shown to characterise nearly one fifth of HR siblings who do not go on to have ASD (Georgiades et al., 2013), consistent with the notion of sub-clinical manifestations of ASD being present at an enhanced rate in family members of individuals with ASD, referred to as the broader autism phenotype (BAP; Bolton et al., 19”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Introduction > The Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI)
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Georgiades et al., 2013 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesNone of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Recent reviews of high-risk (HR) sibling studies find convergent evidence for the emergence of overt behavioural markers between 12 and 18 months of age that distinguish, at a group level, those infants who go on to receive an ASD diagnosis from other HR infants and low-risk (LR) groups (Jones, Gliga, Bedford, Charman, & Johnson, 2014; Zwaigenbaum et al., 2013).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Introduction > Early behavioural signs of autism in high-risk studies
What the sources say
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“Prior to 12 months of age, however, few overt behavioural markers for autism have been identified (Jones et al., 2014).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Introduction > Early behavioural signs of autism in high-risk studies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jones et al., 2014 source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although the two instruments are not identical there is a considerable overlap in the concepts, behaviours and scoring systems, and this suggests a moderate degree of continuity of autistic-like behavioural atypicality from the beginning of the second year of life into the toddler years.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Associations between the AOSI and later ADOS scores
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“However, as has been found with many experimental measures (Jones et al., 2014), with a few exceptions, this continuity is not apparent from as early as 6 to 8 months of age.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Associations between the AOSI and later ADOS scores
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jones et al., 2014 source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesNone of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“It is increasingly apparent, consistent with the phenotype of ASD, that both developmental and language delays are part of the BAP at a group level (Messinger et al., 2013; Ozonoff et al., 2014) and, whilst covarying for these differences one might be taking out some of the variance of interest, early atypical behaviours still discriminated between the infants who went on to have ASD and those who”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Individual items
What the sources say
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As such, it appears that the AOSI is successfully capturing very early emerging autistic behaviours.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Associations between the AOSI and later ADOS scores
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“The current findings confirm the emerging picture that early behavioural atypicalities in emergent ASD include both social and non-social behaviours (see Jones et al., 2014; for a review).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jones et al., 2014 source
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- It may state two separate claims as one. 30
- Probably not a substantial claim. 9
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“AOSI score at 7 m was not associated with ADOS score at either 24 m (r = .23, p = .10) or 36 m (r = .16, p = .27).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > Associations between AOSI scores at 7 m and 14 m and ADOS scores at 24 m and 36 m
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At 14 m the HR group had a higher AOSI score than the LR group but the difference was not statistically significant F(1, 99) = 3.36, p = .07 (d = .36).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR versus LR group differences
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In terms of individual items, at 7 m the HR and LR groups did not differ on any items but the HR group scored higher than the LR controls on one item at 14 m (orientation to name; U = 931.00, p < .01).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > Individual AOSI items
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Seventeen toddlers (11 boys, 6 girls) met ICD-10 (World Health Organisation, 1993) criteria for an ASD (combining ICD-10 childhood autism and pervasive developmental disorder (hereafter, HR-ASD subgroup)). The remaining 36 toddlers (10 boys, 26 girls) did not meet diagnostic criteria for ASD (HR-No ASD).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Methods > Developmental assessments and outcome groups
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We found that social referencing at 7 m and orientation to name also at 14 m differentiated the HR siblings who went on to have an ASD from LR controls.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Individual items
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, AOSI score at 14 m was significantly associated both with ADOS score at 24 m (r = .30, p = .03) and at 36 m (r = .38, p = .005).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > Associations between AOSI scores at 7 m and 14 m and ADOS scores at 24 m and 36 m
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In terms of HR-ASD vs. HR-No ASD outcome groups vs. LR group differences, at 7 m there were significant differences for the following items: visual tracking (χ2 = 9.99, p < .01; HR-No ASD > LR: U = 634.50, p < .01) and Social Referencing (χ2 = 10.78, p < .01; HR-ASD > LR: U = 206.50, p < .01).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > Individual AOSI items
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although the AOSI combines developmental abilities (e.g. imitation) and the presence of atypical or unusual behaviours (e.g. atypical motor and sensory behaviours) the effects of developmental level as measured by the Mullen verbal and nonverbal subscales did not predominate, with only verbal ability at 7 month being significantly associated with the AOSI total score.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At 7 m but not 14 m the covariate effect for Mullen Verbal T-score was significant (F(3, 99) = 4.48, p < .05).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR versus LR group differences
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In terms of individual AOSI items we found no HR vs. LR group differences at 7 m and HR siblings only scored higher than LR controls on one item at 14 m (orientation to name).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Individual items
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At 14 m there were significant differences for the following items: orientation to name (χ2 = 11.50, p < .01; HR-No ASD > LR: U = 596.00, p < .01; HR-ASD > LR: U = 282.50, p < .01), Engagement of Attention (χ2 = 9.75, p < .01; no significant post-hoc tests) and Social Referencing (χ2 = 9.75, p < .01; no significant post-hoc tests).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > Individual AOSI items
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The HR-ASD group had lower ELC scores than the LR group at all four visits (all ps < .05) and lower ELC scores compared to the HR-No ASD group at the 14 m and 36 m visits (both p < .05) but not the 7 m and 24 m visits.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Methods > Developmental assessments and outcome groups
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The HR-ASD group also had a marginally but not significantly higher AOSI score than the HR-No ASD group (p = .07; d = .65).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR outcome group differences
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At 7 m but not 14 m the covariate effect for Mullen Verbal T-score was significant (F(4, 95) = 4.31, p < .05).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR outcome group differences
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Post-hoc LSD tests showed that at 14 m the HR-ASD group scored higher than both the LR group (p < .01) and the HR-No ASD group (p = .03) and that the HR-No ASD group and LR group did not differ from each other (p = .53).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR outcome group differences
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“It is worth noting that the recurrence rate reported in the current study (32.1%) is higher than that reported in the large consortium paper published by Ozonoff and colleagues (18.7%; Ozonoff et al., 2011).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Methods > Developmental assessments and outcome groups
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Ozonoff et al., 2011 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedn = 53Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These analyses were repeated covarying for Mullen Verbal and Nonverbal T-score at each age. The HR outcome groups and LR group did not differ from each other at 7 m of age, F(4, 95) = .61, p = .47 but did differ from each other at 14 m of age, F(4, 93) = 3.85, p = .03.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Results > HR outcome group differences
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“AOSI scores at 7 months were not associated with later ADOS scores but AOSI scores at 14 months were moderately associated with ADOS scores at 24 and 36 months.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Associations between the AOSI and later ADOS scores
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, these item-level findings should be considered exploratory given that a strict correction for multiple testing was not undertaken and require replication in other samples.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Individual items
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of the 54 HR infants recruited, 53 were retained to the 36 m visit when comprehensive diagnostic assessment was undertaken.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Methods > Developmental assessments and outcome groups
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedn = 54Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Agreement between the two coders was excellent at both 7 months (n = 92, intraclass correlation coefficient = .97) and 14 months (n = 85, intraclass correlation coefficient = .95).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Methods > The Autism Observational Scale for Infants (AOSI)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“HR siblings and LR controls did not significantly differ from each other in age at any visit (t-tests, all ps > .34), nor did the HR outcome groups or LR controls differ from one another in age at any visit (all ps > .20; see Table 1 for descriptive statistics on all measures).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Methods > Developmental assessments and outcome groups
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In contrast to previous reports (Brian et al., 2008, 2013; Georgiades et al., 2013), we conservatively adjusted for the differences in verbal and non-verbal developmental ability between the groups.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Individual items
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Brian et al., 2008, 2013
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked yetcites Georgiades et al., 2013 source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Preliminary findings from the instrument's authors’ HR sibling cohort suggested that AOSI scores by 12 months but not at 6 months were promising as a predictor of later ASD outcomes based on 24 month ADOS classification (Zwaigenbaum et al., 2005).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Introduction > The Autism Observation Scale for Infants (AOSI)
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Zwaigenbaum et al., 2005 source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At 14 months (but not 7 months) these behavioural markers also discriminated between those HR infants who went on to an ASD diagnosis and LR controls and marginally between HR who did and did not go on to an ASD diagnosis.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“At this age, clinically relevant behavioural differences span both social communication (e.g. gaze following (Bedford et al., 2012); social referencing (Cornew, Dobkins, Akshoomoff, McCleery, & Carver, 2012)) and stereotyped/repetitive behaviour (e.g. repetitive play (Christensen et al., 2010); repetitive movement (Loh et al., 2007) domains, as well as motor (Flanagan et al., 2012) and attentional”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Introduction > Early behavioural signs of autism in high-risk studies
What the sources say
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The HR versus LR group comparisons were attenuated when verbal and nonverbal developmental level was controlled but the HR-ASD outcome group differences remained significant.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Experimental studies have detected atypical neural response to social stimuli such as dynamic eye gaze from as young as 6 months of age (Elsabbagh et al., 2012).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Introduction > Early behavioural signs of autism in high-risk studies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Elsabbagh et al., 2012 source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Consistent with previous reports (Brian et al., 2008, 2013; Georgiades et al., 2013) behavioural atypicalities as measured by the AOSI differentiated the HR and LR groups in the first year (7 months) and (marginally) early in the second year (14 months) of life.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites Brian et al., 2008, 2013
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked yetcites Georgiades et al., 2013 source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Other behavioural signs in the first year of life have included reduced gaze to people (Chawarska, Macari, & Shic, 2013) and vocal atypicalities (Paul, Fuerst, Ramsay, Chawarska, & Klin, 2010).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Introduction > Early behavioural signs of autism in high-risk studies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Chawarska, Macari, & Shic, 2013 source
- Not checked yetcites Paul, Fuerst, Ramsay, Chawarska, & Klin, 2010
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“In a recent report, Jones and Klin (2013) found that in a small sample of HR infants who went on to an ASD diagnosis, fixation on the eyes declined between 2 and 6 months of age.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Introduction > Early behavioural signs of autism in high-risk studies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Jones and Klin (2013) source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We consider these findings preliminary due to the modest sample size and they will require confirmation in larger and other independent samples.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Limitations
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Some of these atypicalities are found only in HR siblings who go on to have ASD but others are also found in HR siblings who do not, supporting the notion of an early broader autism phenotype (Georgiades et al., 2013; Ozonoff et al., 2014).”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Conclusions
What the sources say
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We also note several limitations in the design, including non-blind assessment (to risk status) at both the infancy and toddler assessments, although the team conducting the toddler visits were blind to infant AOSI scores.”
§ Behavioural markers for autism in infancy: Scores on the Autism Observational Scale for Infants in a prospective study of at-risk siblings > Discussion > Limitations
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“It appears that for most high-risk (HR) infants, the hallmark features of ASD, social-communication deficits, and repetitive behavior are not evident until 12 months of age or later [3, 10, 12, 14, 36, 47, 49].”
From Behavioral, cognitive, and adaptive development in infants with autism spectrum disorder in the first 2 years of life (2015) · cites this paper as [14]
Statistics that don’t add up
Each reported p-value recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom.
Inconsistent p-value: F(4, 95) = .61, p = .47
MinorThe paper reports p = .47 here; recomputing from the test statistic and its degrees of freedom gives p = .656. The check cannot tell whether the statistic or the p-value is the misprint.
Reported p = .47 · recomputed p = .656
“F(4, 95) = .61, p = .47”
Inconsistent p-value: F(3, 96) = 2.24, p = .14
MinorThe paper reports p = .14 here; recomputing from the test statistic and its degrees of freedom gives p = .089. The check cannot tell whether the statistic or the p-value is the misprint.
Reported p = .14 · recomputed p = .089
“F(3, 96) = 2.24, p = .14”
Inconsistent p-value: F(3, 99) = .66, p = .37
MinorThe paper reports p = .37 here; recomputing from the test statistic and its degrees of freedom gives p = .579. The check cannot tell whether the statistic or the p-value is the misprint.
Reported p = .37 · recomputed p = .579
“F(3, 99) = .66, p = .37”
Statistics recomputed
Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.
- Doesn’t add upF(3, 99) = 0.66reported p = .37 · recomputed p = .579
“F(3, 99) = .66, p = .37”
- Doesn’t add upF(3, 96) = 2.24reported p = .14 · recomputed p = .089
“F(3, 96) = 2.24, p = .14”
- Doesn’t add upF(4, 95) = 0.61reported p = .47 · recomputed p = .656
“F(4, 95) = .61, p = .47”
- Not confirmedF(1, 102) = 4.1reported p < .045 · recomputed p = .045
“F(1, 102) = 4.10, p < .045”
- ConsistentF(1, 99) = 3.36reported p = .07 · recomputed p = .070
“F(1, 99) = 3.36, p = .07”
- ConsistentF(3, 99) = 4.48reported p < .05 · recomputed p = .005
“F(3, 99) = 4.48, p < .05”
- ConsistentF(2, 98) = 2.94reported p = .058 · recomputed p = .058
“F(2, 98) = 2.94, p = .058”
- ConsistentF(2, 96) = 4.43reported p = .014 · recomputed p = .014
“F(2, 96) = 4.43, p = .014”
- ConsistentF(4, 93) = 3.85reported p = .03 · recomputed p = .006
“F(4, 93) = 3.85, p = .03”
The paper states a correction for multiple tests
- ConsistentF(4, 95) = 4.31reported p < .05 · recomputed p = .003
“F(4, 95) = 4.31, p < .05”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Self-check results appear here once an independent check has confirmed them.
Citations
Cites
Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences
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Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences
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Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences (2nd ed.).
Lachenbruch, P. A., & Cohen, J. (1989) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2290095 · Cited by 37,421
Lord, C., Rutter, M., & Le Couteur, A. (1994) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/bf02172145 · Cited by 9,065
Mullen Scales of Early Learning
Bradley‐Johnson, S. (1997) · Psychology in the Schools · doi:10.1002/(sici)1520-6807(199710)34:4 · Cited by 2,329
Goodman, R., Ford, T., Richards, H., Gatward, R., & Meltzer, H. (2000) · Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/j.1469-7610.2000.tb02345.x · Cited by 1,755
Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule
Lord, C., Rutter, M. L., Goode, S., Heemsbergen, J., Jordan, H., Mawhood, L., & Schopler, E. (1989) · PsycTESTS Dataset · doi:10.1037/t54175-000 · Cited by 1,695
Behavioral manifestations of autism in the first year of life
Zwaigenbaum, L., Bryson, S., Rogers, T., Roberts, W., Brian, J., & Szatmari, P. (2005) · International Journal of Developmental Neuroscience · doi:10.1016/j.ijdevneu.2004.05.001 · Cited by 1,602
Recurrence Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Baby Siblings Research Consortium Study
Ozonoff, S., Young, G. S., Carter, A., Messinger, D., Yirmiya, N., Zwaigenbaum, L., Bryson, S., Carver, L. J., Constantino, J. N., Dobkins, K., et al. (2011) · Pediatrics · doi:10.1542/peds.2010-2825 · Cited by 1,429
Attention to eyes is present but in decline in 2–6-month-old infants later diagnosed with autism
Jones, W., & Klin, A. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature12715 · Cited by 1,293
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
IBIS network, Estes, A., Zwaigenbaum, L., Gu, H., St. John, T., Paterson, S., Elison, J. T., Hazlett, H., Botteron, K., Dager, S. R., et al. (2015) · Journal of Neurodevelopmental Disorders · doi:10.1186/s11689-015-9117-6 · Cited by 363
Green, J., Pickles, A., Pasco, G., Bedford, R., Wan, M. W., Elsabbagh, M., Slonims, V., Gliga, T., Jones, E., Cheung, C., et al. (2017) · Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/jcpp.12728 · Cited by 328
Self-citationFrench, L., & Kennedy, E. (2017) · Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/jcpp.12828 · Cited by 234
Toward a conceptual framework for early brain and behavior development in autism
Piven, J., Elison, J. T., & Zylka, M. J. (2017) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/mp.2017.131 · Cited by 173
Ozonoff, S., & Iosif, A.-M. (2019) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2019.03.012 · Cited by 146
Metadata
- Authors
- Gammer, I., Bedford, R., Elsabbagh, M., Garwood, H., Pasco, G., Tucker, L., Volein, A., Johnson, M. H., & Charman, T.
- Affiliations
- King's College London (GB)
- McGill University (CA)
- University of London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Charman, Tony
- Venue
- Infant Behavior and Development
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2015-02
- Volume
- 38
- Pages
- 107-115
- ISSN
- 0163-6383 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4346204
- OpenAlex
- W2159608964
- Semantic Scholar
- f1ce63180cea0eb1af301e4e379b7f62390343cc
- Cited by
- 118
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 47 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 3
- FWCI
- 6.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Infant Behavior and Development (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (publishedVersion)
- BIROn (Birkbeck, University of London) (acceptedVersion)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Autism Speaks
- Medical Research Council (G0701484)
- ESF
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Child Nutrition and Feeding Issues
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Child and Animal Learning Development
- Keywords
- autism spectrum disorder, infant siblings, familial high risk, Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, visual object tracking, social orienting, broader autism phenotype
- MeSH terms
- Child, Child Development Disorders, Pervasive, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Personality Assessment, Phenotype, Prospective Studies, Psychometrics, Risk Assessment, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Siblings, Early Diagnosis, Early Medical Intervention
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-06, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-06 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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