Who is lonely in lockdown? Cross-cohort analyses of predictors of loneliness before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: There are concerns internationally that lockdown measures taken during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic could lead to a rise in loneliness. As loneliness is recognised as a major public health concern, it is therefore vital that research considers the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic on loneliness to provide necessary support. But it remains unclear, who is lonely in lockdown? METHODS: This study compared sociodemographic predictors of loneliness before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using cross-cohort analyses of data from UK adults captured before the pandemic (UK Household Longitudinal Study, n = 31,064) and during the pandemic (UCL (University College London) COVID-19 Social Study, n = 60,341). RESULTS: Risk factors for loneliness were near identical before and during the pandemic. Young adults, women, people with lower education or income, the economically inactive, people living alone and urban residents had a higher risk of being lonely. Some people who were already at risk of being lonely (e.g. young adults aged 18-30 years, people with low household income and adults living alone) experienced a heightened risk during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with people living before COVID-19 emerged. Furthermore, being a student emerged as a higher risk factor during lockdown than usual. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that interventions to reduce or prevent loneliness during COVID-19 should be targeted at those sociodemographic groups already identified as high risk in previous research. These groups are likely not just to experience loneliness during the pandemic but potentially to have an even higher risk than normal of experiencing loneliness relative to low-risk groups.
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Several studies suggest that loneliness increased by 20-30% during the pandemic, particularly among younger people, those with lower incomes, and those with chronic health conditions.
“several studies suggest that loneliness increased by 20–30% during the pandemic, particularly among younger people, those with lower incomes, and those with chronic health conditions [75, 76].”
From Psychological correlates of perceived loneliness in college students before and during the COVID-19 stay-at-home period: a longitudinal study (2023) · cites this paper as [75]
The Results and Discussion report heightened loneliness risk during lockdown for young adults and people with low household income. They do not report a 20–30% increase; the Discussion cautions that the findings are not accurate prevalence figures. The Introduction mentions poor physical health as a risk factor identified by previous research, but this study does not establish a pandemic-specific increase for people with chronic health conditions. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAdults living alone had consistently worse levels of depressive symptoms, which could be related to higher levels of loneliness due to social restrictions.
“By contrast, adults living alone had consistently worse levels of depressive symptoms, which could be related to higher levels of loneliness due to social restrictions.30”
From Trajectories of anxiety and depressive symptoms during enforced isolation due to COVID-19 in England: a longitudinal observational study (2021) · cites this paper as [30]
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- Authors
- Bu, F., Steptoe, A., & Fancourt, D.
- Affiliations
- University College London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Fancourt, D.
- Venue
- Public Health
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-09
- Volume
- 186
- Pages
- 31-34
- ISSN
- 0033-3506 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7405905
- OpenAlex
- W3047168709
- Cited by
- 703
- References
- 14
- Citations by year
- 2026: 33 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 121 · 2023: 143 · 2022: 192 · 2021: 150 · 2020: 20
- FWCI
- 50.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- UCL Ethics Committee
- Nuffield Foundation (WEL/FR-000022583)
- MARCH Mental Health Network
- Cross-Disciplinary Mental Health Network Plus
- UK Research and Innovation (ES/S002588/1)
- Wellcome Trust (221400/Z/20/Z, 205407/Z/16/Z)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › COVID-19 and Mental Health
- Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Social impacts of COVID-19
- Keywords
- loneliness, COVID-19 pandemic, lockdown, sociodemographic risk factors, young adults, women, low income, living alone, students, urban residents, cross-cohort comparison, loneliness prevention
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, Adolescent, Adult, Female, United Kingdom, Humans, Loneliness, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Viral, Risk Factors, Social Isolation, Coronavirus Infections, Young Adult, Pandemics
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