Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes
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Abstract
There is now substantial literature on climate model studies of equatorial or tropical stratospheric SO 2 injections that aim to counteract the surface warming produced by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we present the results from the first systematic intercomparison of climate responses in three Earth system models wherein the injection of SO 2 occurs at different latitudes in the lower stratosphere: CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0 and GISS-E2.1-G. The first two use a modal aerosol microphysics scheme, while two versions of GISS-E2.1-G use a bulk aerosol (One-Moment Aerosol, OMA) and a two-moment (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, MATRIX) microphysics approach, respectively. Our aim in this work is to determine commonalities and differences between the climate model responses in terms of the distribution of the optically reflective sulfate aerosols produced from the oxidation of SO 2 and in terms of the surface response to the resulting reduction in solar radiation. A focus on understanding the contribution of characteristics of models transport alongside their microphysical and chemical schemes, and on evaluating the resulting stratospheric responses in different models, is given in the companion paper (Bednarz et al., 2023). The goal of this exercise is not to evaluate these single-point injection simulations as stand-alone proposed strategies to counteract global warming; instead we determine sources and areas of agreement and uncertainty in the simulated responses and, ultimately, the possibility of designing a comprehensive intervention strategy capable of managing multiple simultaneous climate goals through the combination of different injection locations. We find large disagreements between GISS-E2.1-G and the CESM2-WACCM6 and UKESM1.0 models regarding the magnitude of cooling per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD) produced, which varies from 4.7 K per unit of AOD in CESM2-WACCM6 to 16.7 K in the GISS-E2.1-G version with two-moment aerosol microphysics. By normalizing the results with the global mean response in each of the models and thus assuming that the amount of SO 2 injected is a free parameter that can be managed independently, we highlight some commonalities in the overall distributions of the aerosols, in the inter-hemispheric surface temperature response and in shifts to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as some areas of disagreement, such as the extent of the aerosol confinement in the equatorial region and the efficiency of the transport to polar latitudes. In conclusion, we demonstrate that it is possible to use these simulations to produce more comprehensive injection strategies in multiple climate models. However, large differences in the injection magnitudes can be expected, potentially increasing inter-model spreads in some stratospheric quantities (such as aerosol distribution) while reducing the spread in the surface response in terms of temperature and precipitation; furthermore, the selection of the injection locations may be dependent on the models' specific stratospheric transport.
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There would be substantial regional variation in the extent and direction of changes in precipitation under stratospheric aerosol injection.
“However, there would be substantial regional variation in the extent and direction of changes in precipitation [48–50].”
A drier Mediterranean and wetter northern Europe are projected due to a poleward shift of the storm tracks over the North Atlantic Ocean under stratospheric aerosol injection.
“A drier Mediterranean and wetter northern Europe are projected due to a poleward shift of the storm tracks over the North Atlantic Ocean (reviewed by Visioni et al. [49])).”
Stratospheric aerosol injection could result in reductions in precipitation of up to 10% during June, July, and August in Amazonia and Patagonia.
“These changes could result in reductions in precipitation of up to 10% during June, July, and August in Amazonia and Patagonia [48, 49].”
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“First, it is closer to the upper limit of altitudes achievable by traditional aircraft (Smith, 2020) while still being sufficiently far above the tropopause for aerosols not to be removed too quickly (as opposed to 25 km, which is likely too high for practical considerations). Second, we aimed to inject SO2 in all mod…”
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Self-citationLaakso, A., Niemeier, U., Visioni, D., Tilmes, S., & Kokkola, H. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-22-93-2022 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Self-citationBednarz, E. M., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., Jones, A., Haywood, J. M., Richter, J., MacMartin, D. G., & Braesicke, P. (2023) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-687-2023 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Self-citationDoeringer, D., Eldering, A., Boone, C. D., Abad, G. G., & Bernath, P. F. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jd016556 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Visioni, D., Pitari, G., Aquila, V., Tilmes, S., Cionni, I., Di Genova, G., & Mancini, E. (2017) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-17-11209-2017 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Self-citationThermodynamic and dynamic responses of the hydrological cycle to solar dimming
Smyth, J. E., Russotto, R. D., & Storelvmo, T. (2017) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-17-6439-2017 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Wurl, D., Grainger, R. G., McDonald, A., & Deshler, T. (2010) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-10-4295-2010 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
How large is the design space for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering?
Zhang, Y., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., & Kravitz, B. (2022) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-13-201-2022 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Self-citationVisioni, D., Tilmes, S., Bardeen, C., Mills, M., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Richter, J. H. (2022) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationPost, M. J., Grund, C. J., Wang, D., & Deshler, T. (1997) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/97jd00644 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., & Lee, W. (2022) · eCommons (Cornell University) · doi:10.7298/22cq-mx33 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
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Potential effects of climate change and solar radiation modification on renewable energy resources
Kumler, A., Kravitz, B., Draxl, C., Vimmerstedt, L. J., Benton, B., Lundquist, J. K., Martin, M., Buck, H. J., Wang, H., Lennard, C., et al. (2024) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2024.114934 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Self-citationVisioni, D., Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., Haywood, J., Boucher, O., Lawrence, M., Irvine, P., Niemeier, U., Xia, L., et al. (2023) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Self-citationBednarz, E., Butler, A. H., Visioni, D., Zhang, Y., Kravitz, B., & MacMartin, D. G. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-13665-2023 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Self-citationHenry, M., Haywood, J., Jones, A., Dalvi, M., Wells, A., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., MacMartin, D. G., Lee, W., & Tye, M. R. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Self-citationHemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection
Zhang, Y., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E., & Kravitz, B. (2024) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-15-191-2024 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Self-citationBednarz, E. M., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., Jones, A., Haywood, J. M., Richter, J., MacMartin, D. G., & Braesicke, P. (2023) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-687-2023 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Self-citationHaywood, J., Jones, A., Jones, A. C., Halloran, P. R., & Rasch, P. J. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-15305-2023 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Self-citationVisioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Goddard, P. B. (2023) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003851 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Self-citationQuantifying the Efficiency of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering at Different Altitudes
Lee, W. R., Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Tilmes, S. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl104417 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Self-citationWells, A., Jones, A., Osborne, M., Damany-Pearce, L., Partridge, D. G., & Haywood, J. (2023) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-23-3985-2023 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationNeale, P. J., Hylander, S., Banaszak, A. T., Häder, D.-P., Rose, K. C., Vione, D., Wängberg, S.-Å., Jansen, M. A. K., Busquets, R., Andersen, M. P. S., et al. (2025) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43630-025-00687-x · Cited by 32 · see citing works
“These changes could result in reductions in precipitation of up to 10% during June, July, and August in Amazonia and Patagonia [48, 49].”
Patel, T. D., Odoulami, R. C., Pinto, I., Egbebiyi, T. S., Lennard, C., Abiodun, B. J., & New, M. G. (2023) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/acdaec · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Impact of the Latitude of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on the Southern Annular Mode
Bednarz, E., Visioni, D., Richter, J. H., Butler, A. H., & MacMartin, D. G. (2022) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2022gl100353 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Self-citationHow does the latitude of stratospheric aerosol injection affect the climate in UKESM1?
Henry, M., Bednarz, E., & Haywood, J. (2024) · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · doi:10.5194/acp-24-13253-2024 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Self-citationNarenpitak, P., Kongkulsiri, S., Tomkratoke, S., & Sirisup, S. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-73149-6 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Brown, H., Wagman, B., Bull, D., Peterson, K., Hillman, B., Liu, X., Ke, Z., & Lin, L. (2024) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-17-5087-2024 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Stratospheric residence time and the lifetime of volcanic stratospheric aerosols
Toohey, M., Jia, Y., Khanal, S., & Tegtmeier, S. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-3821-2025 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Machine learning for renewable energy advancements: Prospects and emerging techniques
Khan, S., Mim, J. J., Shorna, J. F., Hasan, A. M., Tarek, H. R., Islam, M. A., & Hossain, N. (2026) · Energy Reports · doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2025.109008 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Haywood, J., Boucher, O., Lennard, C., Storelvmo, T., Tilmes, S., & Visioni, D. (2025) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2025.1507479 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Self-citationBednarz, E., Goddard, P. B., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Bailey, D. A., & Danabasoglu, G. (2025) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2025ef005919 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationBednarz, E., Visioni, D., Butler, A. H., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., & Tilmes, S. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl104726 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationLow‐Altitude High‐Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Is Feasible With Existing Aircraft
Duffey, A., Henry, M., Smith, W., Tsamados, M. C., & Irvine, P. J. (2025) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef005567 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Yu, F., Anderson, B. E., Pierce, J. R., Wong, A., Nair, A. A., Luo, G., & Herb, J. (2024) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.3c08408 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Key Gaps in Models' Physical Representation of Climate Intervention and Its Impacts
Eastham, S. D., Butler, A. H., Doherty, S. J., Gasparini, B., Tilmes, S., Bednarz, E., Burkhardt, U., Chiodo, G., Cziczo, D. J., Diamond, M., et al. (2025) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2024ms004872 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationCarbonyl Sulfide (COS) in Terrestrial Ecosystem: What We Know and What We Do Not
Li, J., Shen, L., Zhang, Y., Liu, Y., Wu, J., & Wang, A. (2024) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos15070778 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
A New Era for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
Visioni, D., Robock, A. D., Haywood, J., Henry, M., & Wells, A. (2023) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-23-0232.1 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationStratospheric transport and tropospheric sink of solar geoengineering aerosol: a Lagrangian analysis
Sun, H., Bourguet, S., Luan, L., & Keith, D. (2024) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00664-8 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Hack, M., McNeill, V. F., Steingart, D., & Wagner, G. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-20447-2 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
“Such asymmetric scenarios do exist in literature and are studied here ( 18,24,30,51,53,] 55,85,109,115,123,124,] 132–134,137,159,164,165,223 ).”
Assessing the Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on US Convective Weather Environments
Glade, I., Hurrell, J. W., Sun, L., & Rasmussen, K. L. (2023) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef004041 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Using optimization tools to explore stratospheric aerosol injection strategies
Brody, E., Zhang, Y., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., & Bednarz, E. (2025) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-16-1325-2025 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationSize-resolved process understanding of stratospheric sulfate aerosol following the Pinatubo eruption
Hu, A., Ke, Z., Liu, X., Wagman, B., Brown, H., Lu, Z., Wu, M., Wang, H., Tang, Q., Bull, D., et al. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-12137-2025 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Strategic logic of unilateral climate intervention
Bell, C., & Keys, P. W. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acf94b · Cited by 6 · see citing works
A Climate Intervention Dynamical Emulator (CIDER) for scenario space exploration
Farley, J., MacMartin, D. G., Visioni, D., Kravitz, B., Bednarz, E., Duffey, A., Henry, M., & Akherati, A. (2026) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-19-1809-2026 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationBaur, S., Sanderson, B. M., Séférian, R., & Terray, L. (2025) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-16-667-2025 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Revisiting the 10th‐Century Eldgjá Eruption: Modeling the Climatic and Environmental Impacts
Fuglestvedt, H., Gabriel, I., Sigl, M., Thordarson, T., & Krüger, K. (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2024gl110507 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Sagar, A. K., & Chakraborty, A. K. (2025) · Aerosol Science and Engineering · doi:10.1007/s41810-025-00341-0 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Scenario and Model Dependence of Strategic Solar Climate Intervention in CESMPreprint
Fasullo, J., & Richter, J. H. (2022) · doi:10.1002/essoar.10511796.2 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Projected global sulfur deposition with climate intervention
Rubin, H. J., Yang, C.-E., Hoffman, F. M., & Fu, J. S. (2024) · Global Environmental Change Advances · doi:10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100011 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
The Community-Based Road to CMIP7 in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
Visioni, D., Robock, A. D., MacMartin, D. G., Quaglia, I., Brody, E., & Farley, J. (2024) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-24-0274.1 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationFirst Simulations of Feedback Algorithm‐Regulated Marine Cloud Brightening
Lee, W., Chen, C., Richter, J. H., MacMartin, D. G., & Kravitz, B. (2025) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2024gl113728 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationDiao, C., Keys, P. W., Bell, C., Barnes, E. A., & Hurrell, J. W. (2025) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef005455 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Projected malaria transmission risk under climate intervention in South Asia
Athar, H., Latif, M., Shoaib, M., & Khan, V. (2025) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/adbeb9 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Subtropical Marine Cloud Brightening Suppresses the El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Xing, C., Stevenson, S. L., Fasullo, J., Harrison, C. S., Chen, C., Wan, J., Coupe, J., & Pfléger, C. (2025) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2025ef006522 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Lee, W., Visioni, D., Wagman, B., Wentland, C. R., Kravitz, B., Watanabe, S., Sekiya, T., Jones, A., Haywood, J., Henry, M., et al. (2026) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-26-7463-2026 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationWells, A., & Haywood, J. (2025) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef005810 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationDuffey, A., Lee, W., Wheeler, L., Irvine, P. J., Wagman, B., Henry, M., Visioni, D., Tsamados, M. C., & MacMartin, D. G. (2026) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-17-353-2026 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationEstimation of nighttime aerosol optical depths using the ground-based microwave radiometer
Liu, G., Li, J., Yue, S., Zhang, L., & Zhang, C. (2025) · Atmospheric measurement techniques · doi:10.5194/amt-18-6705-2025 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Sensitivity of Arctic sea ice recovery to stratospheric aerosol injection latitude
Kim, H., Kim, H., Visioni, D., & Bednarz, E. (2025) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01298-0 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationProjected temperature and precipitation extremes over Tanzania under stratospheric SO 2 injection
Patel, T. D., Nguvava, M., & Odoulami, R. C. (2026) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ae4920 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
When are small-scale field experiments in solar geoengineering worth pursuing?
O’Loughlin, R., & Visioni, D. (2026) · European Journal for Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1007/s13194-026-00762-9 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationNkrumah, F., Quagraine, K. A., Quenum, G. M. L. D., Visioni, D., Koffi, H. A., & Klutse, N. A. B. (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2024jd043117 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationFasullo, J., & Richter, J. H. (2022) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-779-rc2
Fasullo, J. (2022) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-779-ac2
Fasullo, J. (2022) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-779-ac1
Comment on egusphere-2023-1611
Haywood, J., Jones, A., Jones, A. C., et al. (2023) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-1611-rc1
Henry, M. (2023) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-980-ac2
Henry, M. (2023) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-980-ac1
Marshall, L. (2024) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-1322-ac1
Visioni, D., Narenpitak, P., & Honegger, M. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-96026-7.00170-3
Self-citationVisioni, D., Narenpitak, P., & Honegger, M. (2025) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-15748-6.00003-4
Self-citationLu, Y., Liu, C., Peng, Y., Rosenlof, K. H., Bian, J., & Yu, P. (2025) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2024jd042813
Oloniyo, O. A., Abiodun, B. J., MAKINDE, A. I., Olagbegi, O. M., Egbebiyi, T. S., Odoulami, R. C., & Lennard, C. (2026) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ae71ff
Jörimann, A., Sukhodolov, T., Tilmes, S., Plummer, D. A., Watanabe, S., Akiyoshi, H., Chiodo, G., Visioni, D., Vattioni, S., Rozanov, E., et al. (2026) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-26-11207-2026
Self-citationVisioni, D., Robock, A. D., Duffey, A., Henry, M., Hirasawa, H., Lee, W., Wang, C., Roberts, K., Watanabe, S., Reboita, M. S., et al. (2026) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-19-8469-2026
Self-citation
- Authors
- Visioni, D., Bednarz, E. M., Lee, W. R., Kravitz, B., Jones, A., Haywood, J. M., & MacMartin, D. G.
- Affiliations
- Cornell University (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Met Office (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Visioni, Daniele
- Bednarz, Ewa M.
- Lee, Walker R.
- Kravitz, Ben
- Jones, Andy
- Haywood, Jim M.
- MacMartin, Douglas G.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Publisher
- Copernicus GmbH
- Published
- 2023-01-16
- Volume
- 23
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 663-685
- ISSN
- 1680-7316 (ISSN-L)
- 1680-7324
- OpenAlex
- W4316467257
- Cited by
- 69
- References
- 83
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 5
- FWCI
- 7.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Atmospheric chemistry and physics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (CBET-1931641)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Keywords
- stratospheric sulfur injection, sulfate aerosols, solar geoengineering, climate model intercomparison, aerosol microphysics, aerosol optical depth, surface cooling, Intertropical Convergence Zone, aerosol transport, CESM2-WACCM6
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