Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction
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Accuracy is improved in base-rate neglect studies when a causal link is provided between the individual events, and experiencing outcomes together weakens conjunction fallacies.
“accuracy is improved in base-rate neglect studies when a causal link is provided between the individual events [55,56], and experiencing outcomes together weakens conjunction fallacies [57]”
From Bayesian Brains without Probabilities (2016) · cites this paper as [55]
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- Authors
- Ajzen, I.
- Corresponding author
- Ajzen, Icek
- ORCID
- Ajzen, Icek
- Venue
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
- Published
- 1977-05
- Volume
- 35
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 303-314
- ISSN
- 0022-3514 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1315
- OpenAlex
- W2168158137
- Cited by
- 503
- References
- 21
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 14
- FWCI
- 8.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
- Keywords
- intuitive theories, base rates, prediction, causal reasoning, probability judgment, base rate neglect
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