Cited by 503Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsClinical Reasoning and Diagnostic SkillsSocial and Intergroup Psychology

Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction

Ajzen, Icek·1977·Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1037/0022-3514.35.5.303

Cites

21 of 21 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Accuracy is improved in base-rate neglect studies when a causal link is provided between the individual events, and experiencing outcomes together weakens conjunction fallacies.

    “accuracy is improved in base-rate neglect studies when a causal link is provided between the individual events [55,56], and experiencing outcomes together weakens conjunction fallacies [57]”

    From Bayesian Brains without Probabilities (2016) · cites this paper as [55]

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Ajzen, I.
Corresponding author
Ajzen, Icek
Venue
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Published
1977-05
Volume
35
Issue
5
Pages
303-314
ISSN
  • 0022-3514 (ISSN-L)
  • 1939-1315
OpenAlex
W2168158137
Cited by
503
References
21
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 14
FWCI
8.18
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
Keywords
intuitive theories, base rates, prediction, causal reasoning, probability judgment, base rate neglect

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review