Cited by 346Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsEpistemology, Ethics, and MetaphysicsClinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills

Bias and error in human judgment

Kruglanski, Arie W., Ajzen, Icek·1983·European Journal of Social Psychology

Abstract

Currently prevalent views of human inference are contrasted with an integrated theory of the epistemic process. The prevailing views are characterized by the following orienting assumptions: (1) There exist reliable criteria of inferential validity based on objectively veridical or optimal modes of information processing. (2) Motivational and cognitive factors bias inferences away from these criteria and thus enhance the likelihood of judgmental error. (3) The layperson's epistemic process is pluralistic; it consists of a diverse repertory of information‐processing strategies (heuristics, schemas) selectively invoked under various circumstances. By contrast, the present analysis yields the following conclusions: (1) There exist no secure criteria of validity. (2) Psychological factors that bias inferences away from any currently accepted criteria need not enhance the likelihood of error. (3) The inference process may be considered unitary rather than pluralistic. The various strategies and biases discussed in the literature typically confound universal epistemic process with specific examples (or contents) of such processes. Empirical support for the present analysis is presented, including evidence refuting proposals that specific contents of inference are of universal applicability; evidence suggesting that people do not, because of a reliance on subnormative heuristics, underutilize nonnative statistical information—rather, people seem unlikely to utilize any information i…

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1002/ejsp.2420130102

Cites

127 of 127 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Kruglanski, A. W., & Ajzen, I.
Affiliations
Tel Aviv University (IL)
Corresponding author
Kruglanski, Arie W.
Venue
European Journal of Social Psychology
Publisher
Wiley
Published
1983-01
Volume
13
Issue
1
Pages
1-44
ISSN
  • 0046-2772 (ISSN-L)
  • 1099-0992
OpenAlex
W2009485604
Cited by
346
References
127
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 7 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 6
FWCI
6.93
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
European Journal of Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Keywords
human judgment, cognitive biases, heuristics, schemas, epistemic processes, inferential validity, belief perseverance, discreditation, motivational factors, information processing strategies

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review