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Perceived social isolation makes me sad: 5-year cross-lagged analyses of loneliness and depressive symptomatology in the chicago health, aging, and social relations study
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We present evidence from a 5-year longitudinal study for the prospective associations between loneliness and depressive symptoms in a population-based, ethnically diverse sample of 229 men and women who were 50-68 years old at study onset. Cross-lagged panel models were used in which the criterion variables were loneliness and depressive symptoms, considered simultaneously. We used variations on this model to evaluate the possible effects of gender, ethnicity, education, physical functioning, medications, social network size, neuroticism, stressful life events, perceived stress, and social support on the observed associations between loneliness and depressive symptoms. Cross-lagged analyses indicated that loneliness predicted subsequent changes in depressive symptomatology, but not vice versa, and that this temporal association was not attributable to demographic variables, objective social isolation, dispositional negativity, stress, or social support. The importance of distinguishing between loneliness and depressive symptoms and the implications for loneliness and depressive symptomatology in older adults are discussed.
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“longitudinal studies have found loneliness to predict future occurrence of depression and anxiety [6, 7]”
From Psychological correlates of perceived loneliness in college students before and during the COVID-19 stay-at-home period: a longitudinal study (2023) · cites this paper as [6]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“They are further in line with studies showing those individuals who worry more [39], who are more socially isolated [40], and receive less social support [41, 42] are more likely to develop mental health problems.”
From Students under lockdown: Comparisons of students’ social networks and mental health before and during the COVID-19 crisis in Switzerland (2020) · cites this paper as [40]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“However, such studies do not clearly establish whether loneliness results in mental illness or vice versa.”
From The effects of social deprivation on adolescent development and mental health (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Given that loneliness is a significant and independent risk factor for complex psychopathology, including depression and suicidal ideation [8,9,11,12,34-36], lonely people may be particularly susceptible to disengaging from treatment early.”
From The Effectiveness of a Smartphone Intervention Targeting Suicidal Ideation in Young Adults: Randomized Controlled Trial Examining the Influence of Loneliness (2023) · cites this paper as [36]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“loneliness has been shown to correlate with negative health outcomes including increased morbidity and mortality (Cacioppo et al., 2010)”
From Living through lockdown: A qualitative exploration of individuals' experiences in the UK. (2022) · cites this paper as Cacioppo et al., 2010
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“The finding that loneliness is associated with depressive symptoms appears well established [6, 85–87].”
From Psychological correlates of perceived loneliness in college students before and during the COVID-19 stay-at-home period: a longitudinal study (2023) · cites this paper as [6]
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In the citing paper
“Several studies have focused on loneliness in humans and have reported a connection between self-reported loneliness and mental health problems.30”
From The effects of social deprivation on adolescent development and mental health (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
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In the citing paper
“Furthermore, human loneliness is not straightforward to study experimentally as loneliness is not a simple product of objective social deprivation: people can be alone without feeling lonely or feel lonely even in a crowd.30”
From The effects of social deprivation on adolescent development and mental health (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
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“These results are consistent with the existing literature examining the relationship between loneliness and mental health to the extent that they suggest that loneliness is associated with more complex psychopathology [8,9,11,12,34-36].”
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“Research shows that loneliness represents a risk factor for depression [12, 13]”
From The prospective association of adolescent loneliness and low resilience with anxiety and depression in young adulthood: The HUNT study (2025) · cites this paper as [13]
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In the citing paper
“more recent analyses of five consecutive annual assessments of loneliness and depressive symptoms have shown that loneliness predicts increases in depressive symptoms over 1-year intervals, but depressive symptoms do not predict increases in loneliness over those same intervals [36]”
From Loneliness matters: a theoretical and empirical review of consequences and mechanisms (2010) · cites this paper as [36]
In the citing paper
“Similarly, perceived isolation has been found to predict lifetime change in IQ36 and changes in depressive symptoms37,38 beyond what could be predicted by objective isolation.”
From Social isolation (2011) · cites this paper as [38]
In the citing paper
“Longitudinal research has confirmed these findings: loneliness is an independent risk factor for depression, controlling for a number of covariates such as demographic characteristics, marital status, social isolation and psychosocial risk factors (Cacioppo et al. 2010).”
From Social isolation, loneliness and health in old age: a scoping review (2017) · cites this paper as Cacioppo et al. 2010
In the citing paper
“In contrast, cross-lagged panel analysis showed that loneliness predicted subsequent changes in depression but not vice versa (Cacioppo et al. 2010).”
From Social isolation, loneliness and health in old age: a scoping review (2017) · cites this paper as Cacioppo et al. 2010
In the citing paper
“The item on loneliness was omitted from the CES-D to avoid direct overlap with the loneliness scale (41); however, the same results emerged when this item was included.”
From Social isolation, loneliness, and all-cause mortality in older men and women (2013) · cites this paper as [41]
In the citing paper
“Additionally, controlled experimental studies investigating the effect of loneliness on health outcomes are especially scarce [37].”
From Loneliness and health in older adults: a mini-review and synthesis (2016) · cites this paper as [37]
In the citing paper
“There is mounting support for the notion that subjective or “perceived” isolation (the quality of social relationships) is a stronger predictor of poor health and emotional state in humans than objective isolation (the number/frequency of social contacts)11,62,146.”
From Neural mechanisms of social homeostasis (2019) · cites this paper as [146]
In the citing paper
“Loneliness is associated with worse physical and mental health [5–8] and increases mortality risk [9,10].”
From Loneliness in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: Cross-sectional results from the COVID-19 Psychological Wellbeing Study (2020) · cites this paper as [6]
In the citing paper
“There is also compelling evidence that loneliness precedes depression [6].”
From Loneliness in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: Cross-sectional results from the COVID-19 Psychological Wellbeing Study (2020) · cites this paper as [6]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Cacioppo, J. T., Hawkley, L. C., & Thisted, R. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Chicago (US)
- Venue
- Psychology and Aging
- Published
- 2010
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 453-463
- ISSN
- 0882-7974 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1498
- PMC
- PMC2922929
- OpenAlex
- W2098003297
- Cited by
- 1,757
- References
- 76
- Citations by year
- 2026: 95 · 2025: 161 · 2024: 134 · 2023: 175 · 2022: 193 · 2021: 207 · 2020: 178 · 2019: 146 · 2018: 113 · 2017: 80 · 2016: 65 · 2015: 66 · 2014: 57 · 2013: 35 · 2012: 24
- FWCI
- 27.13
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Psychology and Aging (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (PO1 AG18911; RO1 AG034052-01)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Developmental and Educational Psychology › Aging and Gerontology Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Aging, Health, and Disability
- Keywords
- loneliness, depressive symptoms, social isolation, older adults, prospective associations, social support, perceived stress, life events, neuroticism, social network size, physical function, ethnicity, gender differences
- MeSH terms
- Activities of Daily Living, Age Factors, Aged, Black or African American, Depressive Disorder, Female, Health Surveys, Hispanic or Latino, Humans, Interpersonal Relations, Life Change Events, Loneliness, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Psychological, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Social Isolation, Social Support, White People
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