Perceived social isolation makes me sad: 5-year cross-lagged analyses of loneliness and depressive symptomatology in the chicago health, aging, and social relations study
Open accessAbstract
We present evidence from a 5-year longitudinal study for the prospective associations between loneliness and depressive symptoms in a population-based, ethnically diverse sample of 229 men and women who were 50-68 years old at study onset. Cross-lagged panel models were used in which the criterion variables were loneliness and depressive symptoms, considered simultaneously. We used variations on this model to evaluate the possible effects of gender, ethnicity, education, physical functioning, medications, social network size, neuroticism, stressful life events, perceived stress, and social support on the observed associations between loneliness and depressive symptoms. Cross-lagged analyses indicated that loneliness predicted subsequent changes in depressive symptomatology, but not vice versa, and that this temporal association was not attributable to demographic variables, objective social isolation, dispositional negativity, stress, or social support. The importance of distinguishing between loneliness and depressive symptoms and the implications for loneliness and depressive symptomatology in older adults are discussed.
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Loneliness predicts future occurrence of depression and anxiety.
“longitudinal studies have found loneliness to predict future occurrence of depression and anxiety [6, 7]”
From Psychological correlates of perceived loneliness in college students before and during the COVID-19 stay-at-home period: a longitudinal study (2023) · cites this paper as [6]
The Discussion (page unavailable) reports that loneliness predicts increases in depressive symptoms in the following year. The paper does not establish the future occurrence of diagnosed depression, and the passages found do not report anxiety as an outcome. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIndividuals who worry more, who are more socially isolated, and receive less social support are more likely to develop mental health problems.
“They are further in line with studies showing those individuals who worry more [39], who are more socially isolated [40], and receive less social support [41, 42] are more likely to develop mental health problems.”
From Students under lockdown: Comparisons of students’ social networks and mental health before and during the COVID-19 crisis in Switzerland (2020) · cites this paper as [40]
For citation [40], the Results report that loneliness—perceived social isolation—predicted later depressive symptoms. The paper distinguishes this from objective social isolation: social network size had no significant lagged effect on depressive symptoms. The claim does not make that distinction and describes mental health problems more broadly than the depressive symptoms studied. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredLoneliness studies do not clearly establish whether loneliness causes mental illness or vice versa.
“However, such studies do not clearly establish whether loneliness results in mental illness or vice versa.”
From The effects of social deprivation on adolescent development and mental health (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
The Introduction (page unavailable) says earlier longitudinal studies could not formally test whether loneliness and depressive symptoms predict each other; the Discussion (page unavailable) says experimental evidence would give greater confidence about causation. But the paper studied depressive symptoms, not mental illness broadly, and explicitly says clinical depression was not measured. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredLonely people may be particularly susceptible to disengaging from treatment early.
“Given that loneliness is a significant and independent risk factor for complex psychopathology, including depression and suicidal ideation [8,9,11,12,34-36], lonely people may be particularly susceptible to disengaging from treatment early.”
From The Effectiveness of a Smartphone Intervention Targeting Suicidal Ideation in Young Adults: Randomized Controlled Trial Examining the Influence of Loneliness (2023) · cites this paper as [36]
The Discussion (page not provided) reports that loneliness independently predicts later depressive symptoms. The introductory section (page not provided) says loneliness is associated with suicidal ideation and behavior, but does not establish it as an independent risk factor for those outcomes. The treatment-disengagement statement follows the citations and is the citing authors’ inference, not a finding attributed to this paper. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredLoneliness has been shown to correlate with negative health outcomes including increased morbidity and mortality.
“loneliness has been shown to correlate with negative health outcomes including increased morbidity and mortality (Cacioppo et al., 2010)”
From Living through lockdown: A qualitative exploration of individuals' experiences in the UK. (2022) · cites this paper as Cacioppo et al., 2010
The introductory section (page unavailable) reports associations between loneliness and poorer physical health, Alzheimer's disease progression, and other adverse health outcomes. It does not report an association with mortality, so the mortality portion of the claim is unsupported by our copy. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Loneliness is associated with depressive symptoms.
“The finding that loneliness is associated with depressive symptoms appears well established [6, 85–87].”
From Psychological correlates of perceived loneliness in college students before and during the COVID-19 stay-at-home period: a longitudinal study (2023) · cites this paper as [6]
Studies on loneliness in humans report a connection between self-reported loneliness and mental health problems.
“Several studies have focused on loneliness in humans and have reported a connection between self-reported loneliness and mental health problems.30”
From The effects of social deprivation on adolescent development and mental health (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
Human loneliness is not a simple product of objective social deprivation; people can be alone without feeling lonely or feel lonely in a crowd.
“Furthermore, human loneliness is not straightforward to study experimentally as loneliness is not a simple product of objective social deprivation: people can be alone without feeling lonely or feel lonely even in a crowd.30”
From The effects of social deprivation on adolescent development and mental health (2020) · cites this paper as [30]
Loneliness is associated with more complex psychopathology, including depression and suicidal ideation.
“These results are consistent with the existing literature examining the relationship between loneliness and mental health to the extent that they suggest that loneliness is associated with more complex psychopathology [8,9,11,12,34-36].”
Loneliness represents a risk factor for depression.
“Research shows that loneliness represents a risk factor for depression [12, 13]”
From The prospective association of adolescent loneliness and low resilience with anxiety and depression in young adulthood: The HUNT study (2025) · cites this paper as [13]
Perceived isolation predicts lifetime IQ change and depressive symptom changes beyond objective isolation.
“Similarly, perceived isolation has been found to predict lifetime change in IQ36 and changes in depressive symptoms37,38 beyond what could be predicted by objective isolation.”
From Social isolation (2011) · cites this paper as [38]
Longitudinal research has confirmed that loneliness is an independent risk factor for depression, controlling for demographic characteristics, marital status, social isolation and psychosocial risk factors.
“Longitudinal research has confirmed these findings: loneliness is an independent risk factor for depression, controlling for a number of covariates such as demographic characteristics, marital status, social isolation and psychosocial risk factors (Cacioppo et al. 2010).”
From Social isolation, loneliness and health in old age: a scoping review (2017) · cites this paper as Cacioppo et al. 2010
Cross-lagged panel analysis showed that loneliness predicted subsequent changes in depression but not vice versa.
“In contrast, cross-lagged panel analysis showed that loneliness predicted subsequent changes in depression but not vice versa (Cacioppo et al. 2010).”
From Social isolation, loneliness and health in old age: a scoping review (2017) · cites this paper as Cacioppo et al. 2010
The loneliness item was omitted from the CES-D to avoid overlap, and results were similar when it was included.
“The item on loneliness was omitted from the CES-D to avoid direct overlap with the loneliness scale (41); however, the same results emerged when this item was included.”
From Social isolation, loneliness, and all-cause mortality in older men and women (2013) · cites this paper as [41]
Controlled experimental studies investigating the effect of loneliness on health outcomes are especially scarce.
“Additionally, controlled experimental studies investigating the effect of loneliness on health outcomes are especially scarce [37].”
From Loneliness and health in older adults: a mini-review and synthesis (2016) · cites this paper as [37]
Subjective or perceived isolation is a stronger predictor of poor health and emotional state in humans than objective isolation.
“There is mounting support for the notion that subjective or “perceived” isolation (the quality of social relationships) is a stronger predictor of poor health and emotional state in humans than objective isolation (the number/frequency of social contacts)11,62,146.”
From Neural mechanisms of social homeostasis (2019) · cites this paper as [146]
Loneliness is associated with worse physical and mental health and increases mortality risk.
“Loneliness is associated with worse physical and mental health [5–8] and increases mortality risk [9,10].”
From Loneliness in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: Cross-sectional results from the COVID-19 Psychological Wellbeing Study (2020) · cites this paper as [6]
There is compelling evidence that loneliness precedes depression.
“There is also compelling evidence that loneliness precedes depression [6].”
From Loneliness in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: Cross-sectional results from the COVID-19 Psychological Wellbeing Study (2020) · cites this paper as [6]
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- Authors
- Cacioppo, J. T., Hawkley, L. C., & Thisted, R. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Chicago (US)
- Venue
- Psychology and Aging
- Published
- 2010
- Volume
- 25
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 453-463
- ISSN
- 0882-7974 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1498
- PMC
- PMC2922929
- OpenAlex
- W2098003297
- Cited by
- 1,757
- References
- 76
- Citations by year
- 2026: 95 · 2025: 161 · 2024: 134 · 2023: 175 · 2022: 193 · 2021: 207 · 2020: 178 · 2019: 146 · 2018: 113 · 2017: 80 · 2016: 65 · 2015: 66 · 2014: 57 · 2013: 35 · 2012: 24
- FWCI
- 27.13
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Psychology and Aging (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (PO1 AG18911; RO1 AG034052-01)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Health › Health disparities and outcomes
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Neuropsychology and Physiological Psychology › Aging and Gerontology Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Aging, Health, and Disability
- Keywords
- loneliness, depressive symptoms, social isolation, older adults, prospective associations, social support, perceived stress, life events, neuroticism, social network size, physical function, ethnicity, gender differences
- MeSH terms
- Activities of Daily Living, Age Factors, Aged, Black or African American, Depressive Disorder, Female, Health Surveys, Hispanic or Latino, Humans, Interpersonal Relations, Life Change Events, Loneliness, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Psychological, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Social Isolation, Social Support, White People
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