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The influence of mortality and socioeconomic status on risk and delayed rewards: A life history theory approach.
Open accessAbstract
Why do some people take risks and live for the present, whereas others avoid risks and save for the future? The evolutionary framework of life history theory predicts that preferences for risk and delay in gratification should be influenced by mortality and resource scarcity. A series of experiments examined how mortality cues influenced decisions involving risk preference (e.g., $10 for sure vs. 50% chance of $20) and temporal discounting (e.g., $5 now vs. $10 later). The effect of mortality depended critically on whether people grew up in a relatively resource-scarce or resource-plentiful environment. For individuals who grew up relatively poor, mortality cues led them to value the present and gamble for big immediate rewards. Conversely, for individuals who grew up relatively wealthy, mortality cues led them to value the future and avoid risky gambles. Overall, mortality cues appear to propel individuals toward diverging life history strategies as a function of childhood socioeconomic status, suggesting important implications for how environmental factors influence economic decisions and risky behaviors.
Overview
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
Across three experiments, mortality cues shifted financial risk and delayed-reward preferences in opposite directions depending on childhood socioeconomic status (SES). People from relatively resource-scarce childhoods became more present-oriented and risk-taking after mortality cues, whereas those from relatively resource-plentiful childhoods became more future-oriented and risk-averse.
Key findings
- In Experiment 1, mortality cues interacted with childhood SES on risk taking, \(F(1, 93) = 6.86, p = .01\); at 1 SD below the childhood-SES mean, mortality increased risk taking, \(t(93) = 2.60, p < .05, \eta^2 = .07\), while at 1 SD above the mean there was a nonsignificant trend toward less risk taking, \(t(93) = 1.10, p = .27, \eta^2 = .01\). Current/expected SES did not significantly interact with prime, \(F(1, 93) = 2.30, p = .14\).
- In Experiment 2, mortality cues again interacted with childhood SES for risk, \(F(1, 67) = 13.86, p < .001, \eta^2 = .17\): lower childhood SES participants took more risk after mortality cues, \(t(67) = 3.57, p < .01, \eta^2 = .14\), and higher childhood SES participants took less risk, \(t(67) = 2.84, p < .01, \eta^2 = .10\). For time preference, the interaction was \(F(1, 67) = 3.2, p = .048, \eta^2 = .046\); lower childhood SES participants preferred the present, \(t(67) = 1.62, p = .06, \eta^2 = .04\), and higher childhood SES participants preferred the future, \(t(67) = 1.71, p = .05, \eta^2 = .04\).
- In Experiment 3, using childhood family income, mortality cues interacted with childhood SES on time preference, \(F(1, 40) = 7.55, p = .005\); at 1 SD above the mean, mortality increased future valuation, \(t(40) = 2.55, p = .023, \eta^2 = .12\), while at 1 SD below the mean there was a marginally significant increase in valuing the present, \(t(40) = 1.46, p = .08, \eta^2 = .04\).
- Overall, the authors conclude that mortality cues can propel individuals toward diverging life-history strategies as a function of childhood SES, with implications for economic decisions and risky behavior.
Methods
- Three experiments with university students: Experiment 1 had 97 participants (67 male, 30 female); Experiment 2 had 71 participants (36 male, 35 female; mean age = 20.8 years); Experiment 3 had 44 participants (mean age = 20.3 years). Participants were seated at computers and randomly assigned to mortality-prime or control conditions using a fictitious news article.
- Dependent measures involved dichotomous financial choices assessing risk preference and temporal discounting. Childhood SES was measured with subjective items in Experiments 1 and 2 and with recalled household family income in Experiment 3; Experiment 1 also measured current/future SES.
- Analyses used general linear models/ANOVA to test Prime × Childhood SES interactions, followed by simple-effects tests at ±1 SD of childhood SES. Experiment 2 used directed tests allocating .04 of alpha to the predicted direction and .01 to the unpredicted direction.
Limitations
- The paper states that the sample had a relatively limited range of SES, which may have reduced power to detect the interaction and means the low-SES participants were relatively affluent compared with the full global and historical range; effects might be stronger at SES extremes.
- The paper states that future research is needed on the psychological and physiological mechanisms, critical periods in childhood, distinctions between extrinsic and intrinsic mortality, and whether findings generalize to other types of risk and more diverse populations.
- Evident from the text: all samples were university students, the financial choices were hypothetical lab measures rather than actual financial behavior, Experiment 3 had a small sample (\(N = 44\)), and several simple effects were marginal (\(p = .06\) or \(p = .08\)).
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For individuals who grew up relatively poor, mortality cues led them to value the present and gamble for big immediate rewards.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A main effect of participant sex emerged, whereby women took less risk than men (p = .029).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 1: Mortality, SES, and Risk > Results
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An analysis of potential interactions did not reveal a three-way interaction with participant sex, prime, and either type of SES or a two-way interaction with participant sex and prime or with participant sex and either type of SES (ps > .20).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 1: Mortality, SES, and Risk > Results
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Conversely, for individuals who grew up relatively wealthy, mortality cues led them to value the future and avoid risky gambles.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The effect of mortality depended critically on whether people grew up in a relatively resource-scarce or resource-plentiful environment.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Conversely, participants from wealthier backgrounds—who were 1 SD above the childhood SES mean—took significantly less risk when primed with mortality, t(67) = 2.84, p < .01, η2 = .10.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 2: Risk Preferences and Temporal Discounting > Results
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Conversely, those from wealthier backgrounds—who were 1 SD above the childhood SES mean—showed a preference for the future, choosing more larger, delayed rewards when primed with mortality, t(67) = 1.71, p = .05, η2 = .04.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 2: Risk Preferences and Temporal Discounting > Results
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For time preference, prime also interacted with childhood SES, F(1, 67) = 3.2, p = .048, η2 = .046”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 2: Risk Preferences and Temporal Discounting > Results
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Consistent with the findings from the second experiment, there was an interaction between prime and childhood family income, F(1, 40) = 7.55, p = .005 (see Figure 4).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 3: Mortality, Gratification Delay, and Childhood Family Income > Results and Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIn the paper
“For example, we found in the current studies and in previous work (Griskevicius et al., 2010) that childhood SES had consistently stronger moderating effects than did current SES.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Genetics and Life History Strategies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Griskevicius et al., 2010
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- Probably not a substantial claim. 12
- It may state two separate claims as one. 23
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“It is also important to note that the pattern for risk preferences in the control conditions was often the reverse (albeit not significantly so) of that in the mortality conditions.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Limitations and Future Directions
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For time preference, mortality cues also had a different effect as a function of childhood SES: Mortality cues led people with higher SES childhoods to value the future and led those with lower SES childhoods to value the present.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 2: Risk Preferences and Temporal Discounting > Discussion
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In contrast, individuals who grew up with relatively more resources responded to mortality cues by preferring lower risk but lower yield rewards (although a test of this simple effect did not reach conventional levels of statistical significance in this study).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 1: Mortality, SES, and Risk > Discussion
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For people who grew up in relatively resource-plentiful environments, mortality cues led them to take less risk and value the future more.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Conversely, mortality cues led people who grew up in relatively resource-scarce environments to prefer more risk and value the present.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For risk, findings replicated the pattern found in the first study: Mortality cues led people who grew up in resource-plentiful environments to take fewer risks and led those who grew up in resource-scarce environments to take more risk.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 2: Risk Preferences and Temporal Discounting > Discussion
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In the paper
“In a study examining the association between life expectancy at birth (an indicator of mortality) and age at first birth in 170 nations, variation in life expectancy accounted for 74% of the variation in age at first birth, with shorter life expectancy predicting earlier age at first birth (Low, Hazel, Parker, & Welch, 2008).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Life History Theory > Individual Differences in Life History Strategies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Low, Hazel, Parker, & Welch, 2008
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In the paper
“Thus, we propose that slow and fast life history strategies are linked to specific preferences for risk: Whereas a slower strategy should be associated with preference for less risk, a faster strategy should be associated with preference for more risk.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Life History Strategies and Risk
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites E. Hill, Ross, & Low, 1997
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This suggests that the psychology and behavior associated with different life history strategies might be dormant in benign environments but may be especially likely to emerge in conditions that suggest environmental unpredictability and harshness.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Life History Theory > Influences of Childhood and Adult Environments
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In the paper
“Although people generally having a slow life history strategy characterized by a long developmental period, heavy investment in a few offspring, and a long expected life span (Kaplan, Hill, Lancaster, & Hurtado, 2000), some individuals reach sexual maturity and become sexually active earlier, whereas others delay reproduction and invest more in embodied capital (Ellis, 2004).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Life History Theory > Individual Differences in Life History Strategies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kaplan, Hill, Lancaster, & Hurtado, 2000
- Not checked yetcites Ellis, 2004
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, members of species that typically live under conditions of high environmental unpredictability and harshness (e.g., seasonal hurricane threat that may kill large proportions of the population) do not gain much from high investment in somatic effort, as that investment could be wiped out by forces outside that organism's control. Instead, such species evolve a relatively fast strategy”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Life History Theory > Environmental Contingency in Life History Strategies
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In the paper
“Although the factors were moderately correlated (r = .41), they were nevertheless empirically distinct.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 1: Mortality, SES, and Risk > Method
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Pilot testing revealed that the two articles elicited the same amount of general arousal, but the mortality prime led participants to view the world as more uncertain and more unsafe (for additional details, see Griskevicius et al., 2010).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 1: Mortality, SES, and Risk > Method
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Griskevicius et al., 2010
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In the paper
“Indeed, research shows that responses to stress are moderated by a person's genotype (Caspi et al., 2003).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Genetics and Life History Strategies
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Caspi et al., 2003
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The pattern of results in Experiment 3—with additional measures of time preference and a different measure of childhood SES—converged with the results found in Experiment 2: Individuals adopting a slower life history strategy responded to cues of mortality by valuing the future, whereas individuals adopting a faster strategy responded by valuing the present.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 3: Mortality, Gratification Delay, and Childhood Family Income > Results and Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Life history strategy is sensitized by events experienced during childhood.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Directed tests allocate .04 of a total alpha level of .05 to the predicted direction of a test statistic and .01 to the unpredicted direction (see, e.g., Gangestad, Garver-Apgar, & Simpson, 2007).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 2: Risk Preferences and Temporal Discounting > Method
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Braver, 1975
- Not checked yetcites Rice & Gaines, 1994
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In the paper
“This model suggests that individuals in a good state are prepared to take relatively large risks, in line with what we found for people with higher SES childhood when there was no immediate threat.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Limitations and Future Directions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Nettle, 2009
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, we suggest that individuals who grew up in higher SES environments should typically perceive cues to danger as indicating intrinsic mortality, whereas those who grew up in lower SES environments should perceive the same danger cues as indicative of extrinsic mortality.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Human Life History Strategies and Psychological Mechanisms
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Life history strategy is sensitized by events experienced during childhood.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The order of the two questions was randomized.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 1: Mortality, SES, and Risk > Method
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A suspicion probe during survey development showed that participants believed this cover story, and they made no connections between the financial questions and news articles.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 1: Mortality, SES, and Risk > Method
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, we created a composite for childhood SES (α = .87) and a composite for current SES (α = .70), analyzing each one separately.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 1: Mortality, SES, and Risk > Method
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“However, when a person's state becomes dire, such as a low-SES childhood combined with prevalent mortality threat, there is an abrupt shift toward being totally risk prone (Nettle, 2009).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Limitations and Future Directions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Nettle, 2009
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Life history theory predicts that a preference for the future should be associated with a slower life history strategy; organisms with slow life histories “expect” that they will be alive in the future and thus can benefit by waiting for a larger but delayed reward. Conversely, a preference for the present should be associated with a faster strategy”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 2: Risk Preferences and Temporal Discounting
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Kaplan et al., 2000
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The order of whether participants first answered the risk items or the time items was randomized.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 2: Risk Preferences and Temporal Discounting > Method
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A principal-axis factor analysis of the six SES items yielded two factors with eigenvalues above 1.0 (3.34 and 1.07).”
- Also stated in: § Method · plain
“The first rotated factor consisted of the three childhood SES items, and it accounted for 47% of item variance. The second rotated factor consisted of the three current SES items, and it accounted for 27% of item variance.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 1: Mortality, SES, and Risk > Method
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Method · plain
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This possible mechanism suggests that psychologies associated with different life history strategies might lay “dormant” in benign ecological conditions but might become enacted in critical conditions suggesting ecological harshness and unpredictability.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Human Life History Strategies and Psychological Mechanisms
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Life history strategy is sensitized by events experienced during childhood.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This differential sensitization in childhood ought to affect how individuals respond to certain ecological variables later in life.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Human Life History Strategies and Psychological Mechanisms
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Life history strategy is sensitized by events experienced during childhood.
In the paper
“Whereas the prevalence of extrinsic mortality is linked to faster life history strategies, the prevalence of intrinsic mortality is linked to the adoption of slower strategies (Ellis et al., 2009).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Human Life History Strategies and Psychological Mechanisms
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites Ellis et al., 2009
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This specific pattern is consistent with a fast life history strategy, which entails taking risks for big immediate payoffs and preferring to get any kind of certain reward now rather than a potentially larger reward later.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Life history strategy is sensitized by events experienced during childhood.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As expected, all of the items showed highly similar patterns, and thus they were combined into a time preference index (α = .90).”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > Experiment 3: Mortality, Gratification Delay, and Childhood Family Income > Method
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This work substantially extends previous work by demonstrating that life history strategies are not only important for directing reproductive decisions (e.g., when to reproduce) but are also important for behaviors such as financial decision making and desire for immediate versus delayed rewards.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Life history strategy is sensitized by events experienced during childhood.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, this restriction may have actually reduced our power to detect a significant interaction between childhood SES and mortality cues, because our low-SES participants developed in conditions that were relatively affluent compared to the full range of economic conditions worldwide and historically.”
§ The Influence of Mortality and Socioeconomic Status on Risk and Delayed Rewards: A Life History Theory Approach > General Discussion > Limitations and Future Directions
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The authors state this as an assumption.
Life history strategy is sensitized by events experienced during childhood.
“Throughout this paper, we have assumed that life history strategy is sensitized by events experienced during childhood.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Our findings also dovetail with recent evidence that scarcity is cognitively taxing (28)(29)(30) and thus may undermine an individual's ability to regulate unintended prejudices.”
From Economic scarcity alters the perception of race (2014) · cites this paper as [28]
Statistics that don’t add up
Each reported p-value recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom.
Inconsistent p-value: t(40) = 2.55, p = .023
MinorThe paper reports p = .023 here; recomputing from the test statistic and its degrees of freedom gives p = .015 (two-tailed). The check cannot tell whether the statistic or the p-value is the misprint.
Reported p = .023 · recomputed p = .015
“t(40) = 2.55, p = .023”
Inconsistent p-value: F(1, 93) = 2.30, p = .14
MinorThe paper reports p = .14 here; recomputing from the test statistic and its degrees of freedom gives p = .133. The check cannot tell whether the statistic or the p-value is the misprint.
Reported p = .14 · recomputed p = .133
“F(1, 93) = 2.30, p = .14”
Statistics recomputed
Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.
- Doesn’t add upF(1, 93) = 2.3reported p = .14 · recomputed p = .133
“F(1, 93) = 2.30, p = .14”
- Doesn’t add upt(40) = 2.55reported p = .023 · recomputed p = .015
“t(40) = 2.55, p = .023”
- Not confirmedF(1, 67) = 3.2reported p = .048 · recomputed p = .078
“F(1, 67) = 3.2, p = .048”
- ConsistentF(1, 93) = 6.86reported p = .01 · recomputed p = .010
“F(1, 93) = 6.86, p = .01”
- Consistentt(93) = 2.6reported p < .05 · recomputed p = .011
“t(93) = 2.60, p < .05”
- Consistentt(93) = 1.1reported p = .27 · recomputed p = .274
“t(93) = 1.10, p = .27”
- ConsistentF(1, 67) = 13.86reported p < .001 · recomputed p < .001
“F(1, 67) = 13.86, p < .001”
- Consistentt(67) = 3.57reported p < .01 · recomputed p < .001
“t(67) = 3.57, p < .01”
- Consistentt(67) = 2.84reported p < .01 · recomputed p = .006
“t(67) = 2.84, p < .01”
- Consistentt(67) = 1.62reported p = .06 · recomputed p = .110
“t(67) = 1.62, p = .06”
The paper states a one-tailed test
- Consistentt(67) = 1.71reported p = .05 · recomputed p = .092
“t(67) = 1.71, p = .05”
The paper states a one-tailed test
- ConsistentF(1, 40) = 7.55reported p = .005 · recomputed p = .009
“F(1, 40) = 7.55, p = .005”
The paper states a one-tailed test
- Consistentt(40) = 1.46reported p = .08 · recomputed p = .152
“t(40) = 1.46, p = .08”
The paper states a one-tailed test
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Self-check results appear here once an independent check has confirmed them.
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Consilience and Life History Theory: From genes to brain to reproductive strategy
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Life History Theory and Evolutionary Psychology
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“Considerations of life history theory suggest that some proportion of these individual differences may develop in response to environmental cues of mortality (Chisholm, 1993, 1996; Ellis et al., 2009; Kaplan & Gangestad, 2005; Quinlan, 2007; Simpson & Belsky, 2008; Worthman & Kuzara, 2005).”
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They All Look the Same to Me (Unless They're Angry)
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“…to life history theory covary (e.g., Ellis, McFadyen-Ketchum, Dodge, Pettie, & Bates, 1999; Figueredo, Vásquez, Brumbach, & Schneider, 2004; Kruger & Nesse, 2006; Nettle, 2010; Wilson & Daly, 1997), life history predictions regarding psychology and decision making have rarely been examined…”
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“Because natural selection favors allocation strategies that optimize resource use over the life course (Schaffer, 1983; Williams, 1957), evolutionary biologists and behavioral ecologists developed life history theory to help explain how and why organisms, including humans, allocate resources to…”
Threat to Life and Risk-Taking Behaviors: A Review of Empirical Findings and Explanatory Models
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Carpe diem: adaptation and devaluing the future
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“…as temporal discounting, intertemporal choice, or delay of gratification, involves choosing between a smaller, immediate reward and a larger, delayed reward (for recent evolutionary applications, see Adams & Nettle, 2009; Daly & Wilson, 2005; for a general overview, see Green & Myerson, 2004).”
Childhood Socioeconomic Status and Host Resistance to Infectious Illness in Adulthood
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Life history and the early origins of health differentials
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“Considerations of life history theory suggest that some proportion of these individual differences may develop in response to environmental cues of mortality (Chisholm, 1993, 1996; Ellis et al., 2009; Kaplan & Gangestad, 2005; Quinlan, 2007; Simpson & Belsky, 2008; Worthman & Kuzara, 2005).”
Infant Attachment Security and the Timing of Puberty
Belsky, J., Houts, R., & Fearon, P. R. M. (2010) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797610379867 · Cited by 158 · cited 1×
“…findings from multiple fields suggest that people may nonconsciously calibrate or sensitize their life history strategies during a sensitive window in childhood, much like the early " critical period " for language acquisition (Belsky, 2007; Belsky et al., 1991, 2010; Boyce & Ellis, 2005).”
Fear Extinction to an Out-Group Face
Navarrete, C. D., Olsson, A., Ho, A. K., Mendes, W. B., Thomsen, L., & Sidanius, J. (2009) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02273.x · Cited by 153
Influences on Women's Reproductive Lives
Low, B. S., Hazel, A., Parker, N., & Welch, K. B. (2008) · Cross-Cultural Research · doi:10.1177/1069397108317669 · Cited by 152
Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making
Kenrick, D. T., Griskevicius, V., Sundie, J. M., Li, N. P., Li, Y. J., & Neuberg, S. L. (2009) · Social Cognition · doi:10.1521/soco.2009.27.5.764 · Cited by 150
Self-citationAN EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF TASTE FOR RISK
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“Although taking highly uncertain gambles is often deemed irrational from a classic economic perspective, choosing to gamble can be an optimal strategy when expected profits from safer choices are negligible (e.g., Kacelnik & Bateson, 1996; Rubin & Paul, 1979).”
The trade-off between number and size of offspring in humans and other primates
Walker, R. S., Gurven, M., Bürger, O., & Hamilton, M. J. (2007) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1511 · Cited by 133
An evolutionary ecological perspective on demographic transitions: Modeling multiple currencies
Low, B. S., Simon, C. P., & Anderson, K. G. (2002) · American Journal of Human Biology · doi:10.1002/ajhb.10043 · Cited by 81
An evolutionary model of low mood states
Nettle, D. (2008) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.10.033 · Cited by 57 · cited 1×
“…as temporal discounting, intertemporal choice, or delay of gratification, involves choosing between a smaller, immediate reward and a larger, delayed reward (for recent evolutionary applications, see Adams & Nettle, 2009; Daly & Wilson, 2005; for a general overview, see Green & Myerson, 2004).”
Is clutch size individually optimized?
Tinbergen, J. M. (1999) · Behavioral Ecology · doi:10.1093/beheco/10.5.504 · Cited by 38 · cited 1×
“Species tend to differ in their life history strategies, but there is substantial variability in strategies within a given species (Daan & Tinbergen, 1997; Tinbergen & Both, 1999).”
An Evolutionary Life-History Model of Gender Differences and Similarities
Kenrick, D. T., & Luce, C. L. (2012) · Psychology Press eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781410605245-9 · Cited by 38 · cited 1×
“This fundamental life history trade-off can be illustrated with an analogy to a bank account (Kenrick & Luce, 2000).”
A Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Uncertainty on Reproductive Behaviors
Davis, J., & Werre, D. (2008) · Human Nature · doi:10.1007/s12110-008-9052-2 · Cited by 31 · cited 1×
“…and it is becoming increasingly useful in explaining human behavior (see, e.g., Belsky, Houts, & Fearon, 2010; Belsky et al., 1991; Chisholm, 1993; Davis & Werre, 2008; Del Giudice, 2009; Eibl-Eibesfeldt, 1989; Ellis, 2004; Ellis et al., 2009; Figueredo et al., 2006; K. Hill & Kaplan, 1999; Horn…”
Childhood experiences and reproductive strategies
Belsky, J. (2012) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198568308.013.0018 · Cited by 29 · cited 2×
“These converging findings from multiple fields suggest that people may nonconsciously calibrate or sensitize their life history strategies during a sensitive window in childhood, much like the early “critical period” for language acquisition (Belsky, 2007; Belsky et al., 1991, 2010; Boyce & Ellis, 2005).”
On Splitting the Tails Unequally: a New Perspective on One-Versus Two-Tailed Tests
Braver, S. L. (1975) · Educational and Psychological Measurement · doi:10.1177/001316447503500206 · Cited by 27 · cited 1×
“Given our specific directional predictions and the results of the first experiment consistent with these predictions, we used directed tests (Braver, 1975; Rice & Gaines, 1994).”
Pheromonally accelerated puberty is enhanced by previous experience of the same stimulus
Mucignat‐Caretta, C., Caretta, A., & Cavaggioni, A. (1995) · Physiology & Behavior · doi:10.1016/0031-9384(94)00344-5 · Cited by 17
Kaplan (2000) · doi:10.1002/1520-6505(2000)9:4
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Charnov EL Life history invariants 1993 Oxford University Press Oxford, England
- Horn HS Rubenstein DI Krebs JR Davies NB Behavioral adaptations and life history. Behavioural ecology: An evolutionary approach 1984 279 300 Blackwell Oxford, England 2nd ed.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Miller, G. E., Chen, E., & Parker, K. J. (2011) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/a0024768 · Cited by 1,785
“Griskevicius et al. (2011); McLoyd et al. (1994); Sweitzer et al. (2008) - Adults from low-SES families are more likely to smoke, drink to excess, have poor diets and inactive lifestyles, and be obese.”
BackgroundThe evolutionary basis of risky adolescent behavior: Implications for science, policy, and practice.
Ellis, B. J., Del Giudice, M., Dishion, T. J., Figueredo, A. J., Gray, P., Griskevicius, V., Hawley, P. H., Jacobs, W. J., James, J., Volk, A. A., et al. (2012) · Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0026220 · Cited by 745
Self-citationGriskevicius, V., Ackerman, J. M., Cantú, S. M., Delton, A. W., Robertson, T. E., Simpson, J. A., Thompson, M. E., & Tybur, J. M. (2013) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797612451471 · Cited by 594
Self-citationSimpson, J. A., Griskevicius, V., Kuo, S. I., Sung, S., & Collins, W. A. (2012) · Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0027293 · Cited by 493
Self-citationCognitive systems for revenge and forgiveness
McCullough, M. E., Kurzban, R., & Tabak, B. A. (2012) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x11002160 · Cited by 511
Metadata
- Authors
- Griskevicius, V., Tybur, J. M., Delton, A. W., & Robertson, T. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Minnesota (US)
- University of New Mexico (US)
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- Corresponding author
- Griskevicius, Vladas
- Venue
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
- Published
- 2011
- Volume
- 100
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1015-1026
- ISSN
- 0022-3514 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1315
- PMC
- PMC3298774
- OpenAlex
- W2172137497
- Semantic Scholar
- 926b6e5ff6f663ec9ac18e79730426d0a165d7ac
- Cited by
- 790
- References
- 85
- Citations by year
- 2026: 51 · 2025: 60 · 2024: 64 · 2023: 49 · 2022: 84 · 2021: 62 · 2020: 67 · 2019: 52 · 2018: 54 · 2017: 71 · 2016: 51 · 2015: 35 · 2014: 34 · 2013: 26 · 2012: 19
- FWCI
- 15.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (0843764)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Death Anxiety and Social Exclusion
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Evolutionary Psychology and Human Behavior
- Keywords
- risk preferences, delay discounting, life history theory, socioeconomic status, child poverty, resource constraints, risky decision making, evolutionary psychology
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Arousal, Attitude to Death, Child, Cues, Decision Making, Female, Gambling, Humans, Individuality, Internal-External Control, Life Change Events, Life Expectancy, Male, Motivation, Personality Development, Poverty, Sex Factors, Social Class, Social Environment, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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