SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY AND DELAY
Open accessAbstract
Human subjects indicated their preference between a hypothetical $1,000 reward available with various probabilities or delays and a certain reward of variable amount available immediately. The function relating the amount of the certain‐immediate reward subjectively equivalent to the delayed $1,000 reward had the same general shape (hyperbolic) as the function found by Mazur (1987) to describe pigeons' delay discounting. The function relating the certain‐immediate amount of money subjectively equivalent to the probabilistic $1,000 reward was also hyperbolic, provided that the stated probability was transformed to odds against winning. In a second experiment, when human subjects chose between a delayed $1,000 reward and a probabilistic $1,000 reward, delay was proportional to the same odds‐against transformation of the probability to which it was subjectively equivalent.
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Cross-species research shows that the value of a commodity declines according to a hyperbolic or hyperboloid discounting function.
“These decades of cross-species research reveal that the value of a commodity declines according to a hyperbolic (or hyperboloid) discounting function like the ones shown in Figure 1 (Green & Myerson, 2004; Mazur, 1987; Rachlin, Raineri, & Cross, 1991).”
From Changing Delay Discounting and Impulsive Choice: Implications for Addictions, Prevention, and Human Health (2019) · cites this paper as Rachlin et al., 1991
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- Authors
- Rachlin, H., Raineri, A., & Cross, D.
- Affiliations
- Stony Brook University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Rachlin, Howard
- Venue
- Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1991-03
- Volume
- 55
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 233-244
- ISSN
- 0022-5002 (ISSN-L)
- 1938-3711
- PMC
- PMC1323057
- OpenAlex
- W1973550127
- Cited by
- 1,341
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 24 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 119 · 2019: 52 · 2018: 60 · 2017: 58 · 2016: 68 · 2015: 80 · 2014: 72 · 2013: 74 · 2012: 59
- FWCI
- 11.10
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- europepmc.org
- Locations
- Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Keywords
- delay discounting, subjective probability, hyperbolic discounting, probability transformation, reward preference
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Humans, Motivation, Probability Learning, Mental Recall, Reinforcement Schedule, Reward
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