Cited by 3,382Hydrology and Drought AnalysisClimate variability and modelsPlant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

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Global warming and changes in drought

Trenberth, Kevin E., Dai, Aiguo, van der Schrier, Gerard, Jones, Philip D., Barichivich, Jonathan, Briffa, Keith R., Sheffield, Justin·2014·Nature Climate Change

DOI 10.1038/nclimate2067

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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
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“However, distributions of rain gauges are sparse and spatially uneven in some remote regions, which increases uncertainty when generating areal precipitation estimations via spatial interpolation [23,24], which largely influences the performance of drought indices [25].”
Background
Smallholder farmers’ perceived evaluation of agricultural drought adaptation technologies used in Uganda: Constraints and opportunities
Mfitumukiza, D., Barasa, B., Kiggundu, N., Nyarwaya, A., & Muzei, J. (2020) · Journal of Arid Environments · doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104137 · Cited by 42
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“intensities of extreme drought and rainfall events (1, 2).”
Background
Metabolite‐mediated adaptation of crops to drought and the acquisition of tolerance
Zhang, F., Rosental, L., Ji, B., Brotman, Y., & Dai, M. (2024) · The Plant Journal · doi:10.1111/tpj.16634 · Cited by 43
Synthesis and Characteristics of Ionic Liquid-Implanted HKUST-1 Metal–Organic Frameworks for Transforming Heat into Extraordinary Water Transfer
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Comparisons of SPI and SPEI in capturing drought dynamics: A Global assessment across arid and humid regions
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Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change
Uden, D. R., Allen, C. R., Bishop, A. A., Grosse, R. C., Jorgensen, C. F., LaGrange, T. G., Stutheit, R. G., & Vrtiska, M. P. (2015) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es15-00256.1 · Cited by 41
Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change
Hossain, K., Yadav, S., Quaik, S., Pant, G., Maruthi, A. Y., & Ismail, N. (2016) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1837-3 · Cited by 45
“…catchment areas to the lakes (Jeppesen et al., 2009a, b; 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014) and high salinity causing a shift to oligosaline or mesosaline conditions (Wrona et al., 2006; Beklioglu and Tan, 2008; Jeppesen et al., 2009a, Jeppesen et al., 2009b; Beklioglu et al., 2011; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
When Should Irrigators Invest in More Water‐Efficient Technologies as an Adaptation to Climate Change?
Malek, K., Adam, J., Stöckle, C., Brady, M., & Rajagopalan, K. (2015) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2018wr022767 · Cited by 37
Drought variability and change across the Iberian Peninsula
Coll, J. R., Aguilar, E., & Ashcroft, L. (2016) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1926-3 · Cited by 41
Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States
Duan, K., Sun, G., McNulty, S. G., Caldwell, P. V., Cohen, E. C., Sun, S., Aldridge, H. D., Zhou, D., Zhang, L., & Zhang, Y. (2017) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-21-5517-2017 · Cited by 45
“…of hydrologic cycle (Creed et al., 2015; Davis et al., 2015), precipitation partitioning (Duan et al., 2016b; Zhou et al., 2015), extreme floods and droughts (Duan et al., 2016a; Trenberth et al., 2014; Duan and Mei, 2014b), and can lead to hydrological “nonstationarity” (Milly et al., 2008).”
Background
Enhancing soil drought induced by climate change and agricultural practices: Observational and experimental evidence from the semiarid area of northern China
Zhang, J., Yang, J., An, P., Ren, W., Pan, Z., Dong, Z., Han, G., Pan, Y., Pan, S., & Tian, H. (2017) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.05.008 · Cited by 42
Investigating Drought Duration-Severity-Intensity Characteristics Using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index: Case Studies in Drought-Prone Southeast Queensland
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On the long‐term changes of drought over China (1948–2012) from different methods of potential evapotranspiration estimations
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Drought intensification alters the composition, body size, and trophic structure of invertebrate assemblages in a stream mesocosm experiment
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“Many regions of the world are expected to experience more intense and prolonged droughts over the coming century (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Future drought changes and associated uncertainty over the homogenous regions of India: A multimodel approach
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A typology of drought decision making: Synthesizing across cases to understand drought preparedness and response actions
Cravens, A. E., Henderson, J., Friedman, J. R., Burkardt, N., Cooper, A. E., Haigh, T. R., Hayes, M. J., McEvoy, J., Paladino, S., Wilke, A. K., et al. (2021) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100362 · Cited by 47
Water deprivation compromises maternal physiology and reproductive success in a cold and wet adapted snake Vipera berus
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“At the same time, we simulated a short period of water deprivation whereas it is predicted that droughts can be more intense in the wild spanning periods ranging from days to months (Cook et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Daytime warming triggers tree growth decline in the Northern Hemisphere
Tao, W., Mao, K., He, J., Smith, N. G., Qiao, Y., Guo, J., Yang, H., Wang, W., Liu, J., & Chen, L. (2022) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16238 · Cited by 40
“In addition, warmer temperatures may increase evaporative demand and trigger drought events (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
BackgroundInfluential
A comparative transcriptomic meta-analysis revealed conserved key genes and regulatory networks involved in drought tolerance in cereal crops
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“Therefore, a large effort is required to increase agricultural production by improving the adaptation of crops to sub-optimal environments in spite of reduced water availability [4,5].”
Background
Massive crop expansion threatens agriculture and water sustainability in northwestern China
Lai, J., Li, Y., Chen, J., Niu, G., Lin, P., Li, Q., Wang, L., Han, J., Luo, Z., & Sun, Y. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac46e8 · Cited by 40
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Urbanization-induced drought modification: Example over the Yangtze River Basin, China
Huang, S., Zhang, X., Yang, L., Chen, N., Nam, W., & Niyogi, D. (2022) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101231 · Cited by 40
Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi contribute to reactive oxygen species homeostasis of Bombax ceiba L. under drought stress
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“Drought stress is a vital abiotic stress to plant and worldwide distribution (Piao et al., 2010; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Interactive effects of elevated temperature and drought on plant carbon metabolism: A meta‐analysis
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Propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in China
Luo, D., Yang, X., Xie, L., Ye, Z., Ren, L., Zhang, L., Wu, F., & Jiao, D. (2025) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133023 · Cited by 40
Global vulnerability to agricultural drought and its spatial characteristics
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Hydro-meteorological drought assessment under climate change impact over the Vu Gia–Thu Bon river basin, Vietnam
Vu, M. T., Vo, N. D., Gourbesville, P., Raghavan, S. V., & Liong, S. Y. (2017) · Hydrological Sciences Journal · doi:10.1080/02626667.2017.1346374 · Cited by 40
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“The combination of droughts and global warming is likely to have a greater effect on the environment and may induce other abiotic stresses [6].”
Background
Impact of the dry-day definition on Mediterranean extreme dry-spell analysis
Rivoire, P., Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Hertig, E., & Vicente-Serrano, S. M. (2019) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019 · Cited by 40
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Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on regional rainfall and temperature change across India
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Are we sacrificing the future of coral reefs on the altar of the “climate change” narrative?
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“Drought will become more frequent and severe in the future along with global climate change (Choat et al. 2018; Cook et al. 2015; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Background
Nonstationary Modeling of Meteorological Droughts: Application to a Region in India
Das, S., Das, J., & Umamahesh, N. V. (2020) · Journal of Hydrologic Engineering · doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0002039 · Cited by 40
Drought Extent and Severity on Arable Lands in Romania Derived from Normalized Difference Drought Index (2001–2020)
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“Other factors that define the characteristics of the active surface, or the physiological peculiarities of the plants, in addition to the anthropogenic influence on the environment, are highly significant in its occurrence [1,2].”
Background
Drought characteristics over Nepal Himalaya and their relationship with climatic indices
Sharma, S., Hamal, K., Khadka, N., Shrestha, D., Aryal, D., & Thakuri, S. (2021) · Meteorological Applications · doi:10.1002/met.1988 · Cited by 40
“Frequent and severe droughts impact the meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socioeconomic systems globally (Reichstein et al., 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014; Guo et al., 2019; Haile et al., 2020).”
Background
Water storage and agricultural resilience to drought: historical evidence of the capacity and institutional limits in the United States
Smith, S. M., & Edwards, E. C. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac358a · Cited by 40
Sentinel-1 SAR Backscatter Response to Agricultural Drought in The Netherlands
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Teleconnections of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Regional Drought in Mid-Latitudes: A Case Study in Xinjiang, China
Yang, R., & Bing, X. (2022) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos13020230 · Cited by 39
Assessing seasonal variation and trends in rainfall patterns of Madhya Pradesh, Central India
Kumar, A., Kumar, S., Rautela, K. S., Shekhar, S., Ray, T., & Thangavel, M. (2023) · Journal of Water and Climate Change · doi:10.2166/wcc.2023.280 · Cited by 39
An appraisal of the local‐scale spatio‐temporal variations of drought based on the integrated GRACE / GRACE‐FO observations and fine‐resolution FLDAS model
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Biological control of soil-borne pathogens in arid lands: a review
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Probabilistic monitoring of meteorological drought impacts on water quality of major rivers in South Korea using copula models
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Assessment of the Drought Hazard in the Tiber River Basin in Central Italy and a Comparison of New and Commonly Used Meteorological Indicators
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Soil Functional Zone Management: A Vehicle for Enhancing Production and Soil Ecosystem Services in Row-Crop Agroecosystems
Williams, A., Kane, D. A., Ewing, P. M., Atwood, L. W., Jilling, A., Li, M., Lou, Y., Davis, A. S., Grandy, A. S., Huerd, S. C., et al. (2016) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2016.00065 · Cited by 42
A Sensitivity Study of Applying a Two‐Source Potential Evapotranspiration Model in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for Drought Monitoring
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“drought identification, the Thornthwaite (TW) equation (Thornthwaite, 1948) is commonly used (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
BackgroundMethod
Status of Aquatic Macrophytes in Changing Climate: A Perspective
Dhir, B. (2015) · Journal of Environmental Science and Technology · doi:10.3923/jest.2015.139.148 · Cited by 41
“…causing shift to oligosaline or mesosaline conditions (Wrona et al., 2006; Beklioglu and Tan, 2008; Jeppesen et al., 2009b; Beklioglu et al., 2011; Trenberth et al., 2014) and (c) acidification of water leading to increase in Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) (Eissa and Zaki, 2011; Ejankowski and…”
Background
Urban responses to restrictive conservation policy during drought
Palazzo, J., Liu, O. R., Stillinger, T., Song, R., Wang, Y., Hiroyasu, E. H. T., Zenteno, J. I., Anderson, S. E., & Tague, C. (2017) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2016wr020136 · Cited by 41
“As global climate change intensifies, drought conditions are increasing in frequency, intensity, duration, and geographic scope throughout the world [Dai, 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014].”
Background
National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes
Kay, A. L., Bell, V. A., Guillod, B. P., Jones, R., & Rudd, A. C. (2018) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2145-y · Cited by 41
Robustness of hydroclimate metrics for climate change impact research
Ekström, M., Gutmann, E. D., Wilby, R. L., Tye, M. R., & Kirono, D. (2018) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water · doi:10.1002/wat2.1288 · Cited by 40
“Trenberth et al. (2014) address the challenges of calculating and analyzing the PDSI at a global scale.”
Background
Drought Assessment using GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Deficit in Mongolia from 2002 to 2017
Yu, W., Li, Y., Cao, Y., & Schillerberg, T. A. (2019) · Water · doi:10.3390/w11061301 · Cited by 39
“Some studies indicate that the frequency and magnitude of droughts are projected to enhance in the future due to climate change [2,3].”
Background
Fructan and antioxidant metabolisms in plants of Lolium perenne under drought are modulated by exogenous nitric oxide
Rigui, A. P., Carvalho, V., dos Santos, A. L. W., Morvan‐Bertrand, A., Prudhomme, M. P., de Carvalho, M. Â. M., & Gaspar, M. (2019) · Plant Physiology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.plaphy.2019.10.029 · Cited by 39
“It is predicted that climate changes will result in drought periods, that are expected to be more intense and frequent in the subtropical band, resulting in expansion of dry areas to the Poles (Seneviratne et al., 2012; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
An Open-Source Tool to Facilitate the Processing of GRACE Observations and GLDAS Outputs: An Evaluation in Bangladesh
Purdy, A. J., David, C. H., Sikder, M. S., Reager, J. T., Chandanpurkar, H. A., Jones, N. L., & Matin, M. A. (2019) · Frontiers in Environmental Science · doi:10.3389/fenvs.2019.00155 · Cited by 39
“, 2013), changes in seasonal snowpack (Smith and Bookhagen, 2018), and shifts in the intensity of drought (Trenberth et al., 2014), water managers require as much relevant information as possible to meet water needs of a growing populations to support food and energy production (Vörösmarty et al.”
Background
Analysis of spatio-temporal rainfall trends across southern African biomes between 1981 and 2016
Marumbwa, F. M., Cho, M. A., & Chirwa, P. W. (2019) · Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C · doi:10.1016/j.pce.2019.10.004 · Cited by 42
Major factors of global and regional monsoon rainfall changes: natural versus anthropogenic forcing
Ha, K., Kim, B.-H., Chung, E., Chan, J. C. L., & Chang, C.-P. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab7767 · Cited by 39
Agronomic Crop Responses and Tolerance to Drought Stress
Salehi-Lisar, S. Y., & Bakhshayeshan-Agdam, H. (2020) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-15-0025-1_5 · Cited by 39
Drought timing and primary productivity in a semiarid grassland
Zhang, J., Miao, Y., Tong, Z., Wei, Y., Qiao, X., Miao, R., Wang, D., Han, S., & Yang, Z. (2020) · Land Degradation and Development · doi:10.1002/ldr.3603 · Cited by 39
Lagged influence of ENSO regimes on droughts over the Poyang Lake basin, China
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“Ourresultsalso point toward temperature as an important factor to consider in the hydrological balance over the tropics, due to its ability to exacerbate droughts 13,59,60 .”
Climate-smart agriculture: Insights and challenges
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“Moreover, changes inmean precipitation values are also linked to increased rainfall variability and more frequent extremes (Trenberth et al. 2014); for example, a small reduction in mean annual precipitation can transform a 1/100-year drought into a 6/100-year event.”
BackgroundSelf-citation
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“While future studies should focus on improved mapping of soil moisture using mechanistic hydrological models, when forecasting the impacts of future climate change on vegetation communities, forecasts of soil moisture remain challenging (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
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Influential
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“PDSI is widely used in observational analyses (Trenberth et al. 2014), as a target for tree-ring-based paleoclimate reconstructions (Cook et al. 2004) and to investigate drought dynamics in model simulations (Coats et al. 2015; Cook et al. 2014, 2015; Dai 2013; Feng et al. 2017).”
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Background
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Authors: Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J.
Affiliations: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
University of East Anglia (GB)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Trenberth, Kevin E.
ORCID: Trenberth, Kevin E.
Dai, Aiguo
Jones, Philip D.
Barichivich, Jonathan
Briffa, Keith R.
Sheffield, Justin
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2013-12-20
Volume: 4
Issue: 1
Pages: 17-22
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2067
OpenAlex: W2108886061
Cited by: 3,382
References: 41
Citations by year: 2026: 299 · 2025: 317 · 2024: 360 · 2023: 347 · 2022: 397 · 2021: 399 · 2020: 332 · 2019: 243 · 2018: 232 · 2017: 170 · 2016: 148 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 1
FWCI: 71.19
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
HAL (submittedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
Oskar-Bordeaux (Universite de Bordeaux) (submittedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy (DESC0005689)
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G018863/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Keywords: drought, climate change impacts, Palmer Drought Severity Index, evapotranspiration, precipitation data quality, natural variation, ENSO, La Niña, drought attribution, global warming

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