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Global warming and changes in drought
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“First, there are numerous types of droughts: agricultural, metrological, and hydrological.23”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [23]
In the citing paper
“One study 23 further highlighted the disparate results by pointing out (among other reasons) that each study relied on a different precipitation dataset.”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [23]
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- Parker, D. E., Hilburn, K., Hennon, P. & Becker, A. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93 (special issue), S26–S27 (2012).
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“As shown in Trenberth et al.82, precipitation must be taken into account when evaluating the drought impacts of temperature, and use of datasets like the CHIRPS should aid in this task.”
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“Even if the increased heating from global warming does not directly cause increases in drought frequency, hotter conditions will result in droughts intensifying more quickly once they do occur and generally being more severe—the essence of ‘‘hotter drought’’ (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundInfluentialTriggers of tree mortality under drought
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“…more common under climate change ( 25 ), which together with an increased atmospheric demand for water associated with global warming might exacerbate the impact of El Niño events over semi-arid ecosystems and further increase the role of semi-arid regions in driving global NBP IAV ( 26-28 ).”
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“Detection and attribution studies have attributed the most extreme heat waves and the increasing likelihood of heat waves occurring in the past several decades to anthropogenic influences and warming (Easterling et al. 2016, Stott et al. 2004, Sun et al. 2017, Trenberth et al. 2015).”
BackgroundWill drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?
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“…2017a), we are aware that a better option would have been the Penman–Monteith’s method (Allen et al., 1998), as it also includes solar radiation, vapour pressure, and relative humidity and consequently provides more realistic estimations of PET (Sheffield et al., 2012; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
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“The record-breaking drought of the 2018 growing season from April to October confirms projections from climate models that the future climate in Central Europe will be hotter, drier and will encompass more extreme climatic events (Samaniego et al., 2018; Trenberth et al., 2014; Zhou, Zhang, Park Williams, & Gentine, 2…”
BackgroundGlobal patterns of drought recovery
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Self-citationLarger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide
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A global transition to flash droughts under climate change
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Self-citationHanging by a thread? Forests and drought
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Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices
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“It has been shown that sparse and poor quality of precipitation data [106] generate large uncertainties in quantifying spatiotemporal drought assessment under climate change [26, 27, 80, 107].”
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Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe
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Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts
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“Numerous studies on drought research used the PDSI 1,6,23,45 .”
Self-citationA review of environmental droughts: Increased risk under global warming?
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Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the United States
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“Past studies focused on changes in drought trends report conflicting results (9, 21, 25, 26).”
BackgroundResultMultifaceted characteristics of dryland aridity changes in a warming world
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BackgroundDrivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests
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Excess forest mortality is consistently linked to drought across Europe
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Self-citationDrought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
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Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought
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“A increase in the intensity and duration of drought (1, 2), along with warmer temperatures, is projected for the 21st century (3).”
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Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in China
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“Furthermore, a few recent studies have claimed that the drought indices provide better estimates of the true global drought trend when using the PM evapotranspiration framework because of its more comprehensive physics (Sheffield et al. 2012; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Contrasting responses of water use efficiency to drought across global terrestrial ecosystems
Yang, Y., Guan, H., Batelaan, O., McVicar, T. R., Long, D., Piao, S. L., Liang, W., Liu, B., Jin, Z., & Simmons, C. T. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep23284 · Cited by 425
Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities
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Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere
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“Climate warming causes an increase in atmospheric water demand and terrestrial evapotranspiration (Greve et al., 2014; Novick et al., 2016; Trenberth et al., 2014; Will, Wilson, Zou, & Hennessey, 2013), which may profoundly change the soil water resources available for vegetation growth.”
BackgroundRapid responses of plants to temperature changes
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A multi-model and multi-index evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century
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“Indeed, attempts to evaluate changes in drought over the instrumental record have yielded conflicting results, with contradictions attributable at least in part to discrepancies in the data used, as well as to the selection of the comparison period (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, C.-F., Barbosa, H. M. J., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G., Staal, A., Wang-Erlandsson, L., & Rammig, A. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms14681 · Cited by 413
Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa
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“Nevertheless, given the projected climate warming in the 21st century and the forcing factor of climate change, drought is likely to set in more quickly, be more intense and last longer (Cook et al., 2015; Dai, 2011, 2013; Shef fi eld & Wood, 2008; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
BackgroundMethodThe biggest drought events in Europe from 1950 to 2012
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Vogt, J., & Barbosa, P. (2015) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.01.001 · Cited by 432
Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers
Wu, W., Lo, M., Wada, Y., Famiglietti, J. S., Reager, J. T., Yeh, P. J. ‐., Ducharne, A., & Yang, Z. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-17581-y · Cited by 423
Recent advances in photocatalytic treatment of pollutants in aqueous media
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Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective
Berg, A., & Sheffield, J. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0095-0 · Cited by 414
Self-citationRETRACTED ARTICLE: Warming accelerates global drought severity
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“45 The results of global studies analyzing the effect of warming processes on drought severity differ in 46 the magnitude of the drought trends and in their spatial patterns as a consequence of differences in 47 the forcing precipitation data sets used (Trenberth et al., 2014), the models used to estimate ETo and 48 t…”
MethodClimate-resilient strategies for sustainable management of water resources and agriculture
Srivastav, A. L., Dhyani, R., Ranjan, M., Madhav, S., & Sillanpää, M. E. T. (2021) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-021-14332-4 · Cited by 442
“It is expected that CC can alter the hydrological as well as energy cycles of the earth due to increased atmospheric temperature and further aggravate water-related sustainability of agricultural production (Stewart et al. 2004; Seneviratne et al. 2010; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundClimate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils
Schlaepfer, D. R., Bradford, J. B., Lauenroth, W. K., Munson, S. M., Tietjen, B., Hall, S. A., Wilson, S. D., Duniway, M. C., Jia, G., Pyke, D. A., et al. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms14196 · Cited by 403
“Model projections largely agree, however, that drylands will likely continue to expand during the twenty first century 1–3, 5, 10 due to This uncertainty is especially complicated for soil moisture availability, which is dictated by the combination of weather, vegetation, soil and landscape…”
InfluentialDrought legacies and ecosystem responses to subsequent drought
Müller, L. M., & Bahn, M. (2022) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16270 · Cited by 391
“…change has been and will likely be causing a significant increase in the severity and frequency of drought events (IPCC, 2021; Spinoni et al., 2018; Trenberth et al., 2014) with strong repercussions on ecosystem processes and services (Bastos et al., 2020; Ciais et al., 2005; Feeley et al., 2020;…”
BackgroundThe Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early Twenty-First Century
Rodell, M., Beaudoing, H. K., L’Ecuyer, T., Olson, W. S., Famiglietti, J. S., Houser, P. R., Adler, R. F., Bosilovich, M. G., Clayson, C. A., Chambers, D. P., et al. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00555.1 · Cited by 384
“…is assumed to be zero, while the net energy transfer to the ocean basins is assumed to be 0.6Wm22 with an uncertainty of 0.4Wm22, based upon recent estimates of ocean heat storage from the Argo array [Willis et al. 2009; Lyman et al. 2010; see Trenberth et al. (2014b) for a thorough discussion].”
BackgroundSelf-citationRepresenting the function and sensitivity of coastal interfaces in Earth system models
Ward, N. D., Megonigal, J. P., Bond‐Lamberty, B., Bailey, V., Butman, D., Canuel, E. A., Diefenderfer, H. L., Ganju, N. K., Goñi, M. A., Graham, E. B., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16236-2 · Cited by 382
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“Although projections of future droughts vary between models and also largely depend on the methodology and baseline periods chosen (Trenberth and Dai 2014), an increase in extreme drought conditions around the Mediterranean, Northern Africa and the Middle East is consistently projected across a variety of studies (IPC…”
Having the right neighbors: how tree species diversity modulates drought impacts on forests
Grossiord, C. (2018) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15667 · Cited by 365
Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health
Bell, J. E., Brown, C., Conlon, K. C., Herring, S. C., Kunkel, K. E., Lawrimore, J. H., Luber, G., Schreck, C. J., Smith, A., & Uejio, C. K. (2018) · Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association · doi:10.1080/10962247.2017.1401017 · Cited by 397
“Over the past 50 years, drought frequency and intensity have increased with rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns for some parts of the globe (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundDrought Stress in Plants: Causes, Consequences, and Tolerance
Salehi-Lisar, S. Y., & Bakhshayeshan-Agdam, H. (2016) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-28899-4_1 · Cited by 363
Root Response to Drought Stress in Rice (Oryza sativa L.)
Kim, Y.-H., Chung, Y. S., Lee, E., Tripathi, P., Heo, S. U., & Kim, K.-H. (2020) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms21041513 · Cited by 385
“The frequency, severity, and long-term trends of global drought remain contentious [17,18], yet the incidence and extremity of drought have been increasing globally, such as in the Mediterranean [19], Central China [20], and West Africa [21].”
BackgroundHuman and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought
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Jeppesen, E., Meerhoff, M., Davidson, T. A., Trolle, D., Søndergaard, M., Lauridsen, T. L., Beklioğlu, M., Brucet, S., Volta, P., González‐Bergonzoni, I., et al. (2014) · Journal of Limnology · doi:10.4081/jlimnol.2014.844 · Cited by 372
“As there is a strong linkage between climate and the hydrological cycle, warming can also enhance drought (Wrona et al., 2006; Trenberth et al., 2014) with strong implications for water level and salinity in lakes in arid and semi-arid climates (Wantzen et al.”
BackgroundMethodology of Drought Stress Research: Experimental Setup and Physiological Characterization
Osmolovskaya, N., Shumilina, J., Kim, A., Didio, A., Grishina, T., Bilova, T. E., Keltsieva, O. A., Zhukov, V. A., Tikhonovich, I. A., Tarakhovskaya, E., et al. (2018) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms19124089 · Cited by 355
“Due to oncoming climate changes, the frequency and duration of drought periods will increase, making this factor one of the most important threats of the current century [8,9].”
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Addressing agricultural nitrogen losses in a changing climate
Bowles, T. M., Atallah, S. S., Campbell, E. E., Gaudin, A. C. M., Wieder, W. R., & Grandy, A. S. (2018) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-018-0106-0 · Cited by 342
Seed Priming: A Feasible Strategy to Enhance Drought Tolerance in Crop Plants
Vishvanathan, M., Geetha, R., Kumutha, K., Renganathan, V. G., Karthikeyan, A., & Ramalingam, J. (2020) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms21218258 · Cited by 367
“Drought-induced economic losses were estimated to be about 29 billion dollars during 2005 to 2015, and it is predicted to become more persistent and extensive in the coming decades [2,3].”
BackgroundGlobal drought trends and future projections
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Peña‐Angulo, D., Beguerı́a, S., Domínguez‐Castro, F., Tomàs‐Burguera, M., Noguera, I., Gimeno‐Sotelo, L., & Kenawy, A. E. (2022) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2021.0285 · Cited by 355
Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda
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Soil Constraints in an Arid Environment—Challenges, Prospects, and Implications
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“…may increase temperature (about 2-4°C globally) and frequency and severity of extreme droughts, elevate evapotranspiration (Stocker et al. 2013; Trenberth et al. 2014), result in more frequent and intense precipitation and flooding in temperate regions (Taylor et al. 2013), and even prolong…”
BackgroundClimate risk: The price of drought
Huynh, T., Nguyen, T., & Truong, C. (2020) · Journal of Corporate Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101750 · Cited by 344
Metadata
- Authors
- Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Trenberth, Kevin E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2013-12-20
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 17-22
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2108886061
- Cited by
- 3,382
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 299 · 2025: 317 · 2024: 360 · 2023: 347 · 2022: 397 · 2021: 399 · 2020: 332 · 2019: 243 · 2018: 232 · 2017: 170 · 2016: 148 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 71.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- Oskar-Bordeaux (Universite de Bordeaux) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (DESC0005689)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G018863/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Keywords
- drought, climate change impacts, Palmer Drought Severity Index, evapotranspiration, precipitation data quality, natural variation, ENSO, La Niña, drought attribution, global warming
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