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Global warming and changes in drought
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“First, there are numerous types of droughts: agricultural, metrological, and hydrological.23”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [23]
In the citing paper
“One study 23 further highlighted the disparate results by pointing out (among other reasons) that each study relied on a different precipitation dataset.”
From A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science (2014) · cites this paper as [23]
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Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence
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BackgroundDifferential sensitivity to regional-scale drought in six central US grasslands
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“Thus, understanding ecosystem responses to drought is critical and heightened by expectations that future droughts will be more intense and greater in extent than those experienced in the last century (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundPan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., & Vogt, J. (2016) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013 · Cited by 347
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Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts
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Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change
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“Increases in drought are driven primarily by decreased precipitation with increased evapotranspiration from higher temperatures (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
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Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle
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Global Patterns of Crop Production Losses Associated with Droughts from 1983 to 2009
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Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus
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Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates
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Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea
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“Recently, Trenberth et al.3 demonstrated that natural variability, especially El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is the primary cause of many episodic droughts around the world.”
BackgroundTrends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region
Mallya, G., Mishra, V. K., Niyogi, D., Tripathi, S., & Govindaraju, R. S. (2016) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.002 · Cited by 293
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Self-citationNatural hazards in Australia: droughts
Kiem, A. S., Johnson, F. M., Westra, S., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Evans, J. P., O’Donnell, A. J., Rouillard, A., Barr, C., Tyler, J. J., Thyer, M., et al. (2016) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1798-7 · Cited by 287
Dryland changes under different levels of global warming
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Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems
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“…trends over the past century (Sheffield et al., 2012; Trenberth et al., 2013; McCabe and Wolock, 2015), drought hazards will likely increase in many regions in the coming decades (Sheffield and Wood, 2008; Dai, 2011; Trenberth et al., 2013; Spinoni et al., 2017; UNDRR, 2019, Spinoni et al., 2019b).”
InfluentialChanges in the severity of compound drought and hot extremes over global land areas
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Drought, Heat, and the Carbon Cycle: a Review
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“While thermodynamic arguments indicate that increased heating might indeed amplify droughts via increased atmospheric water demand [25], potentially coinciding with a tendency towards more variable precipitation 26], negative feedbacks via relative humidity, soil moisture limits to further drying [19], and plant physi…”
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“10.01 P data since the 1990s resulted in considerably higher global-mean sc_PDSI_pm for the recent decades compared with the cases using the DaiP, GPCC V6, and WilP P data.”
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Yu, Z., Yun, F. F., Wang, Y., Yao, L., Dou, S. X., Liu, K., Jiang, L., & Wang, X. L. (2017) · Small · doi:10.1002/smll.201701403 · Cited by 275
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“Drought is likely to set in more quickly and intensely under the increased heating from global warming (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
BackgroundInfluentialFuture drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia
Zhai, J., Mondal, S. K., Fischer, T., Wang, Y., Su, B., Huang, J., Tao, H., Wang, G., Ullah, W., & Uddin, M. J. (2020) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105111 · Cited by 264
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European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach
Spinoni, J., Naumann, G., Vogt, J., & Barbosa, P. (2015) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.012 · Cited by 275
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“%) were estimated according to the method described by Trouvelot et al. (1986).”
MethodLagged Compound Occurrence of Droughts and Pluvials Globally Over the Past Seven Decades
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Self-citationEvidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink
Ruehr, S., Keenan, T. F., Williams, C. A., Zhou, Y., Lu, X., Bastos, A., Canadell, J. G., Prentice, I. C., Sitch, S. A., & Terrer, C. (2023) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00456-3 · Cited by 274
“Significant drying trends have been detected in the western United States, mid-altitudes, European peatland and global islands, limiting the carbon sink 158,164–167 .”
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“Tanarhte et al. (2012) and Trenberth et al. (2014) provide further discussion.”
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“Unfortunately, drought is expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to the future warming air temperature (Trenberth et al., 2014; Zambrano et al., 2018).”
BackgroundClimate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System
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“Like hurricanes, droughts are expected to increase in intensity as regional temperature and precipitation regimes shift with changing global climate (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
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A climatological assessment of drought impact on vegetation health index
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Mechanisms of forest resilience
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Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century
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Early-season mapping of winter wheat in China based on Landsat and Sentinel images
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Increasingly Important Role of Atmospheric Aridity on Tibetan Alpine Grasslands
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Compound climate events increase tree drought mortality across European forests
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Global root zone storage capacity from satellite-based evaporation
Wang‐Erlandsson, L., Bastiaanssen, W. G. M., Gao, H., Jägermeyr, J., Senay, G. B., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Guerschman, J. P., Keys, P. W., Gordon, L. J., & Savenije, H. H. G. (2016) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-20-1459-2016 · Cited by 238
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A Big Data Guide to Understanding Climate Change: The Case for Theory-Guided Data Science
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“One study 23 further highlighted the disparate results by pointing out (among other reasons) that each study relied on a different precipitation dataset.”
ResultObserved drought indices show increasing divergence across Europe
Stagge, J. H., Kingston, D. G., Tallaksen, L. M., & Hannah, D. M. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-14283-2 · Cited by 242
Detecting forest response to droughts with global observations of vegetation water content
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“As the climate warms, droughts are getting hotter, more extreme, and more frequent (Dai, 2013; Touma et al., 2015; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
BackgroundLosing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations
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“If extreme climate events become more common as is often predicted (Kodra et al. 2011; Dai 2013; Trenberth et al. 2014), then range-edge populations may have a fitness advantage (e.g., higher rates of survival) relative to the more central conspecific populations that are less tolerant of these…”
BackgroundSoil Moisture Stress as a Major Driver of Carbon Cycle Uncertainty
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“Much of the drought impacts literature is concerned with the appropriateness of present-day drought measures to assess future drought risks (Mankin et al., 2017; Milly & Dunne, 2016; Roderick et al., 2015; Swann et al., 2016; Trenberth et al., 2013).”
BackgroundPropagation of Drought: From Meteorological Drought to Agricultural and Hydrological Drought
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“Despite the controversy regarding drought changes in the last decades [1–3], increases in drought intensity are clearly identified in some areas [4] and it is believed that although increased heating from global warming may not directly cause droughts, it is expected that when droughts occur, they are likely to set in…”
BackgroundGlobal land moisture trends: drier in dry and wetter in wet over land
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Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century
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“Frequency of water-related disasters arising from floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, landslides and tsunamis has apparently increased in recent decades and appears to continue to be increasing (Dai 2013; Milly et al. 2002; Trenberth et al. 2014; Duan et al. 2015).”
BackgroundIncreasing aridity, temperature and soil pH induce soil C-N-P imbalance in grasslands
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“Our 3500-km transect study in 65 dryland sites of northern China’s steppe, to our knowledge, was the first to explore how aridity and warming influence soil C-N-P balance in meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe, all of which are expected to experience drier and warmer climates 1,2 .”
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Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1° resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present
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Recent progress in drought and salt tolerance studies in Brassica crops
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“Even worse, global climate change is predicted to lead to extreme temperatures and severer prolonged drought in some parts of the world, which will have a dramatic impact on crop growth and productivity (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundOngoing and Emerging Questions in Water Erosion Studies
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Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century
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“The increasing frequency and severity of declines in precipitation result in critical drought events and hydrological imbalances (Trenberth et al., 2014), inducing tree mortality and shifting species distributions across global ecosystems (Breshears et al.”
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Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey
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Multivariate assessment and attribution of droughts in Central Asia
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“F (17) detrend i observed i y detrend i”
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Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development
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“Dai (2012) finds a statistically significant increase in drought conditions for Central America and the Caribbean for the 1950–2010 period, although the significance of this trend depends on the reference period and the formulation of the underlying drought index (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
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“…and climate changes, including warming, drought, excess fertilization and the biological accumulation of pesticides and antibiotics (Shade et al., 2012; Stocker, 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014), with considerable influence on the soil microbiome structure and function (De Nijs et al., 2019).”
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“…in spatial pattern between the GRACE-DSI, PDSI-Z, and USDM over different seasons and across a wide range of land covers, despite the fact that vegetation, snow, and other cold season land surface processes are not explicitly treated in the PDSI model (Dai 2013; van der Schrier et al. 2013).”
BackgroundRim, G., Kong, F., Song, M., Rosu, C., Priyadarshini, P., Lively, R. P., & Jones, C. W. (2022) · JACS Au · doi:10.1021/jacsau.1c00414 · Cited by 194
GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL LOSSES AND THEIR CAUSES
JUNAID, M., & GOKCE, A. (2024) · Bulletin of Biological and Allied Sciences Research · doi:10.54112/bbasr.v2024i1.66 · Cited by 195
“According to Trenberth et al. (2014), drought is a persistent lack of precipitation or an inadequate amount of it, resulting in dry spells and hydrological imbalances.”
BackgroundHuang, L., He, B., Han, L., Liu, J., Wang, H., & Chen, Z. (2017) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.084 · Cited by 194
“Drought is projected to increase both in intensity and frequency in the context of climate change (Trenberth et al., 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014) despite with great uncertainties.”
BackgroundTowards an operationalisation of nature-based solutions for natural hazards
Kumar, P., Debele, S. E., Sahani, J., Aragão, L., Barisani, F., Basu, B., Bucchignani, E., Charizopoulos, Ν., Sabatino, S. D., Domeneghetti, A., et al. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138855 · Cited by 193
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“However, temperature, high winds, sunlight, humidity, and soil moisture also have significant impact on drought variation (Trenberth et al., 2013).”
BackgroundDebele, S. E., Kumar, P., Sahani, J., Martí-Cardona, B., Mickovski, S. B., Leo, L. S., Porcù, F., Bertini, F., Montesi, D., Vojinović, Z., et al. (2019) · Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2019.108799 · Cited by 209
“3) and defined in different ways that makes it hard to easily observe and assess its arrival and development (Trenberth et al., 2014; Van Loon, 2015).”
BackgroundEller, F., Skálová, H., Caplan, J. S., Bhattarai, G. P., Burger, M. K., Cronin, J. T., Guo, W.-Y., Guo, X., Hazelton, E. L. G., Kettenring, K. M., et al. (2017) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2017.01833 · Cited by 203
Zarco‐Tejada, P. J., Hornero, A., Beck, P. S. A., Kattenborn, T., Kempeneers, P., & Hernández‐Clemente, R. (2019) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2019.01.031 · Cited by 202
“This trend may become clearer and stronger as further climate change is likely to exacerbate droughts (Trenberth et al., 2014), cause new biotic disturbance regimes, while it shifts the suitable habitats of many tree species geographically (Allen et al.”
BackgroundZhao, T., & Dai, A. (2016) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x · Cited by 196
“There are still large uncertainties, however, in recent and projected future drought changes, especially regarding the extent to which the drought trends will be forced by changes in precipitation versus evaporative demand (Hobbins et al. 2008; Sheffield et al. 2012; Taylor et al. 2013; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citationDoes drought in China show a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2009?
Wang, Z., Li, J., Lai, C., Zeng, Z., Zhong, R., Chen, X., Zhou, X., & Wang, M. (2016) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.098 · Cited by 191
Huang, D., Ma, M., Wang, Q., Zhang, M., Jing, G., Li, C., & Ma, F. (2020) · Plant Physiology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.plaphy.2020.02.020 · Cited by 188
Walthert, L., Ganthaler, A., Mayr, S., Saurer, M. M., Waldner, P., Walser, M., Zweifel, R., & von Arx, G. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141792 · Cited by 203
“Climate change is leading to more severe and longer drought episodes inmany regionsworldwide (Dai, 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014) including mountainous environments such as the European Alps (Gobiet et al.”
BackgroundRawat, A. K., Kumar, D., & Khati, B. S. (2023) · Journal of Water and Climate Change · doi:10.2166/wcc.2023.536 · Cited by 237
Is atmospheric phosphorus pollution altering global alpine Lake stoichiometry?
Brahney, J., Mahowald, N. M., Ward, D. S., Ballantyne, A. P., & Neff, J. C. (2015) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2015gb005137 · Cited by 193
“…from land use and climate changes that influence the wind erosion of soils, increases in food production, use of grazing lands, and changes in the frequency and severity of droughts that influence biomass burning [Foley et al., 2005; Hudson, 2011; Pandey and Pandey, 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014].”
BackgroundTemperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California
Shukla, S., Safeeq, M., AghaKouchak, A., Guan, K., & Funk, C. C. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl063666 · Cited by 184
“High evaporative demands put greater stress on available moisture, exacerbating a drought ’ s severity [ Trenberth et al., 2013; Seager and Hoerling , 2014; Seager et al., 2014].”
BackgroundCompound Extremes in Hydroclimatology: A Review
Hao, Z., Singh, V. P., & Hao, F. (2018) · Water · doi:10.3390/w10060718 · Cited by 187
“Drought and hot extremes are interconnected, which is mostly due to the positive feedback in transitional regions between a wet and dry climate, in that drought condition may be amplified/exacerbated when accompanied by heat wave, while drought may create favorable conditions for hot extreme or heat wave [4,8,13,38,71…”
BackgroundSeasonal Drought Pattern Changes Due to Climate Variability: Case Study in Afghanistan
Ishanch, Q., Shiru, M. S., Sharafati, A., Ahmed, K., Al-Ansari, N. A., Yaseen, Z. M., Shahid, S., & Wang, X. (2019) · Water · doi:10.3390/w11051096 · Cited by 184
Li, J., Wang, Z., Wu, X., Xu, C., Guo, S., & Chen, X. (2020) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-19-0298.1 · Cited by 184
Comparison of Global Precipitation Estimates across a Range of Temporal and Spatial Scales
Gehne, M., Hamill, T. M., Kiladis, G. N., & Trenberth, K. E. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0618.1 · Cited by 180
“Even rain gaugeonly datasets have large differences; in the context of drought, using one or another dataset can result in an increase or decrease in the determination of drought conditions (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Self-citationLamichhane, J. R., Debaeke, P., Steinberg, C., You, M. P., Barbetti, M. J., & Aubertot, J. (2018) · Plant and Soil · doi:10.1007/s11104-018-3780-9 · Cited by 180
“Extreme climatic events due to climate change bring about many unexpected and more frequent biotic and abiotic stress situations (Bebber et al. 2014; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
BackgroundDas, J., Jha, S., & Goyal, M. K. (2019) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124356 · Cited by 177
Current Status, Challenges, and Opportunities in Rice Production
Prasad, R., Shivay, Y. S., & Kumar, D. (2017) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-47516-5_1 · Cited by 206
Fitzky, A. C., Sandén, H., Karl, T., Fares, S., Calfapietra, C., Grote, R., Saunier, A., & Rewald, B. (2019) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2019.00050 · Cited by 181
A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue from 1950 to 2016
He, X., Pan, M., Wei, Z., Wood, E. F., & Sheffield, J. (2020) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-18-0269.1 · Cited by 177
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Trenberth, Kevin E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2013-12-20
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 17-22
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2108886061
- Cited by
- 3,382
- References
- 41
- Citations by year
- 2026: 299 · 2025: 317 · 2024: 360 · 2023: 347 · 2022: 397 · 2021: 399 · 2020: 332 · 2019: 243 · 2018: 232 · 2017: 170 · 2016: 148 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 71.19
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
- Oskar-Bordeaux (Universite de Bordeaux) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy (DESC0005689)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G018863/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Keywords
- drought, climate change impacts, Palmer Drought Severity Index, evapotranspiration, precipitation data quality, natural variation, ENSO, La Niña, drought attribution, global warming
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