Cited by 3,382Hydrology and Drought AnalysisClimate variability and modelsPlant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

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Global warming and changes in drought

Trenberth, Kevin E., Dai, Aiguo, van der Schrier, Gerard, Jones, Philip D., Barichivich, Jonathan, Briffa, Keith R., Sheffield, Justin·2014·Nature Climate Change

DOI 10.1038/nclimate2067

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Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America
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Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate
Sippel, S., & Otto, F. E. L. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1153-9 · Cited by 74
“Although the empirical Thornthwaithe-method has been criticized as being oversimplistic and biased (Seneviratne 2012; Sheffield et al. 2012; Trenberth et al. 2014), the so-derived metric P −PET can be seen a simple proxy for dryness in any given month or season.”
Method
Effects of different reference periods on drought index (SPEI) estimations from 1901 to 2014
Um, M., Kim, Y., Park, D., & Kim, J. (2017) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-21-4989-2017 · Cited by 66
“Drought can be defined and explained using absolute or relative terminology, which allows terms and measures to be compared (Dai, 2011b; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Visual and hydraulic techniques produce similar estimates of cavitation resistance in woody species
Gauthey, A., Peters, J. M. R., Carins‐Murphy, M. R., Domínguez, C. M. R., Li, X., Delzon, S., King, A., López, R., Medlyn, B. E., Tissue, D. T., et al. (2020) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.16746 · Cited by 66
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Evaluating the Performance of Hyperspectral Leaf Reflectance to Detect Water Stress and Estimation of Photosynthetic Capacities
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“Consequently, climate change may exacerbate droughts, which may then set in more quickly, be more intense, and last longer [2,3].”
Background
Ameliorating Drought Effects in Wheat Using an Exclusive or Co-Applied Rhizobacteria and ZnO Nanoparticles
Muhammad, F., Raza, M. A. S., Iqbal, R., Zulfiqar, F., Aslam, M. U., Yong, J. W. H., Altaf, M. A., Zulfiqar, B., Amin, J., & Ibrahim, M. A. (2022) · Biology · doi:10.3390/biology11111564 · Cited by 65
“, in rice and wheat were reported to get significantly affected by the drought [51].”
Background
Quantifying the drought sensitivity of vegetation types in northern China from 1982 to 2022
Yuan, B., Guo, S., Zhang, X., Mu, H., Cao, S., Xia, Z., Pan, X., & Du, P. (2024) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110293 · Cited by 63
Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and salinity stress mitigation in plants
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Rapid warming forces contrasting growth trends of subalpine fir (Abies fabri) at higher- and lower-elevations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau
Wang, W., Jia, M., Wang, G., Zhu, W., & McDowell, N. G. (2017) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2017.07.043 · Cited by 66
Persistent multi-scale fluctuations shift European hydroclimate to its millennial boundaries
Markonis, Y., Hanel, M., Máca, P., Kyselý, J., & Cook, E. R. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04207-7 · Cited by 65
Tree Neighbourhood Diversity Has Negligible Effects on Drought Resilience of European Beech, Silver Fir and Norway Spruce
Gillerot, L., Forrester, D. I., Bottero, A., Rigling, A., & Lévesque, M. (2020) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-020-00501-y · Cited by 64
A Framework for Global Multicategory and Multiscalar Drought Characterization Accounting for Snow Processes
Zhang, B., Xia, Y., Huning, L. S., Wei, J., Wang, G., & AghaKouchak, A. (2019) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2019wr025529 · Cited by 63
Joint behaviour of climate extremes across India: Past and future
Kumar, N., Goyal, M. K., Gupta, A. K., Jha, S., Das, J., & Madramootoo, C. A. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126185 · Cited by 66
Observed Changes in Meteorological Drought Events during 1981–2020 over Rwanda, East Africa
Uwimbabazi, J., Jing, Y., Iyakaremye, V., Ullah, I., & Ayugi, B. O. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su14031519 · Cited by 69
Climate change impacts on conventional and flash droughts in the Mekong River Basin
Kang, H., Sridhar, V., & Ali, S. A. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155845 · Cited by 64
Global evaluation of the “dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter” paradigm from a terrestrial water storage change perspective
Xiong, J., Guo, S., Abhishek, Chen, J., & Yin, J. (2022) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-26-6457-2022 · Cited by 67
Sensitivity of Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to the choice of SPEI probability distribution and evapotranspiration method
Lee, S., Moriasi, D., Mehr, A. D., & Mirchi, A. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101761 · Cited by 82
A pronounced decline in northern vegetation resistance to flash droughts from 2001 to 2022
Zhang, M., Yuan, X., Zeng, Z., Pan, M., Wu, P., Xiao, J., & Keenan, T. F. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-58253-z · Cited by 70
Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts
Ganguli, P., & Ganguly, A. R. (2016) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.09.004 · Cited by 70
“drought trends and considerable uncertainty in the assessments (Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2013; Sheffield et al., 2012; Trenberth et al., 2014; Van Loon, 2015; Vogel et al., 2015).”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
Foraging Activity Pattern Is Shaped by Water Loss Rates in a Diurnal Desert Rodent
Levy, O., Dayan, T., Porter, W. P., & Kronfeld‐Schor, N. (2016) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/687246 · Cited by 64
Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research
Trnka, M., Hayes, M. J., Jurečka, F., Bartošová, L., Anderson, M., Brázdil, R., Brown, J. E., Camarero, J. J., Cudlín, P., Dobrovolný, P., et al. (2018) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr01509 · Cited by 63
“The last AR5 IPCC (Hartmann 2015) report stated a medium level of confidence in drought trends at the global scale because of the large data and model uncertainties associated with objective drought quantification (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012, Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Background
Sea-level rise and storm surges structure coastal forests into persistence and regeneration niches
Kearney, W. S., Fernandes, A., & Fagherazzi, S. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0215977 · Cited by 71
Climate Risk and the Price of Audit Services: The Case of Drought
Truong, C., Garg, M., & Adrian, C. (2020) · Auditing A Journal of Practice & Theory · doi:10.2308/ajpt-18-097 · Cited by 61
A scoping review of drought impacts on health and society in North America
Sugg, M. M., Runkle, J. D., Leeper, R. D., Bagli, H., Golden, A., Handwerger, L. R., Magee, T., Moreno, C., Reed-Kelly, R., Taylor, M., et al. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02848-6 · Cited by 67
Explainable AI reveals new hydroclimatic insights for ecosystem-centric groundwater management
Chakraborty, D., Başağaoğlu, H., Gutierrez, L., & Mirchi, A. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2fde · Cited by 65
“Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts, but when droughts occur, they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense [31].”
Background
An Agenda for Land Data Assimilation Priorities: Realizing the Promise of Terrestrial Water, Energy, and Vegetation Observations From Space
Kumar, S. V., Kolassa, J., Reichle, R. H., Crow, W. T., Lannoy, G. J. M. D., de Rosnay, P., MacBean, N., Girotto, M., Fox, A., Quaife, T. L., et al. (2022) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2022ms003259 · Cited by 72
“Together, these observations facilitate the development of observation-only based water, energy, and carbon budget closure estimates (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Assessment of agricultural drought based on multi-source remote sensing data in a major grain producing area of Northwest China
Cai, S., Zuo, D., Wang, H., Xu, Z., Wang, G., & Yang, H. (2023) · Agricultural Water Management · doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108142 · Cited by 63
Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: the Australian case
Williamson, G. J., Prior, L. D., Jolly, W. M., Cochrane, M. A., Murphy, B. P., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035003 · Cited by 65
“Globally, there is concern that fire weather is worsening as temperatures rise and droughts become more frequent and intense (Hansen et al 2010, Dai 2013, Trenberth et al 2014).”
Background
Towards Estimating Land Evaporation at Field Scales Using GLEAM
Martens, B., de Jeu, R., Verhoest, N. E. C., Schuurmans, H., Kleijer, J., & Miralles, D. G. (2018) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs10111720 · Cited by 66
“Following the expected intensification and increasing frequency of droughts and heatwaves under future climate [9,10], the ability to mitigate the impacts of these events on our water resources, natural ecosystems, and food production systems strongly relies on the capability to predict the dynamics of evaporation dur…”
BackgroundInfluential
Physiological and anatomical changes in two rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) genotypes under drought stress conditions
Zhu, J., Cai, D., Wang, J., Cao, J.-H., Wen, Y., He, J., Zhao, L., Wang, D., & Zhang, S. (2021) · Oil Crop Science · doi:10.1016/j.ocsci.2021.04.003 · Cited by 62
Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels
Liu, W., Sun, F., Feng, Y., Li, C., Chen, J., Sang, Y., & Zhang, Q. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac188f · Cited by 61
Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States
Qiu, M., Ratledge, N., Azevedo, I. L., Diffenbaugh, N. S., & Burke, M. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2300395120 · Cited by 65
Global vegetation, moisture, thermal and climate interactions intensify compound extreme events
Adeyeri, O. E., Zhou, W., Ndehedehe, C. E., & Wang, X. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169261 · Cited by 67
“…et al., 2022b; Perkins et al., 2015; Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis, 2020), others (e.g., Dai, 2013; Fischer et al., 2007; Miralles et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014) argue that certain regions may see more frequent and severe precipitation, which could alleviate the consequences of…”
BackgroundInfluential
Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario
Li, X., Ju, H., Sarah, G., Yan, C., Batchelor, W. D., & Liu, Q. (2017) · Journal of Integrative Agriculture · doi:10.1016/s2095-3119(16)61545-9 · Cited by 64
A Comparison of the Early Twenty-First Century Drought in the United States to the 1930s and 1950s Drought Episodes
Heim, R. R. (2017) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0080.1 · Cited by 61
“Higher temperatures increase evapotranspiration and can intensify drought, causing quicker onset and higher intensity (Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Background
Severe drought limits trees in a semi‐arid savanna
Case, M. F., Coetsee, C., Nzima, N., Scogings, P. F., & Staver, A. C. (2019) · Ecology · doi:10.1002/ecy.2842 · Cited by 64
Radial water transport in arbuscular mycorrhizal maize plants under drought stress conditions is affected by indole-acetic acid (IAA) application
Quiroga, G., Erice, G., Aroca, R., Zamarreño, A. M., García‐Mina, J. M., & Ruíz-Lozano, J. M. (2020) · Journal of Plant Physiology · doi:10.1016/j.jplph.2020.153115 · Cited by 62
Photosynthetic resistance and resilience under drought, flooding and rewatering in maize plants
Qi, M., Liu, X., Li, Y., Song, H., Yin, Z., Zhang, F., He, Q., Xu, Z., & Zhou, G. (2021) · Photosynthesis Research · doi:10.1007/s11120-021-00825-3 · Cited by 70
Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century
King, K. E., Cook, E. R., Anchukaitis, K. J., Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., Harley, G. L., & Spei, B. A. (2024) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adj4289 · Cited by 69
“…the future of precipitation in the region remains uncertain, projections of increasing temperatures pose substantial risk for intensifying drought conditions and increasing water insecurity ( 58–60 ) for these economically important, population-dense, and historically active mega-drought regions.”
Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea
Park, C.-K., Byun, H., Deo, R. C., & Lee, B. (2014) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.043 · Cited by 63
Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming
Yin, Y., Ma, D., & Wu, S. (2018) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-18798-6 · Cited by 62
Construction of a large-scale semi-field facility to study genotypic differences in deep root growth and resources acquisition
Svane, S. F., Jensen, C. S., & Thorup‐Kristensen, K. (2019) · Plant Methods · doi:10.1186/s13007-019-0409-9 · Cited by 61
A global database of water vapor isotopes measured with high temporal resolution infrared laser spectroscopy
Wei, Z., Lee, X., Aemisegger, F., Benetti, M., Berkelhammer, M., Casado, M., Caylor, K. K., Christner, E., Dyroff, C., García, O., et al. (2019) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/sdata.2018.302 · Cited by 61
Increasing concurrent drought and heat during the summer maize season in Huang–Huai–Hai Plain, China
Wang, L., Liao, S., Huang, S., Ming, B., Meng, Q., & Wang, P. (2018) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5492 · Cited by 60
Evaluation of remotely sensed precipitation sources for drought assessment in Semi-Arid Iraq
Suliman, A. H. A., Awchi, T. A., Al-Mola, M. H. A., & Shahid, S. (2020) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105007 · Cited by 60
Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya, East Africa
Tan, G., Ayugi, B. O., Ngoma, H., & Ongoma, V. (2020) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105112 · Cited by 58
Validation of Satellite and Merged Rainfall Data over Ghana, West Africa
Atiah, W. A., Amekudzi, L. K., Aryee, J. N. A., Preko, K., & Danuor, S. K. (2020) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos11080859 · Cited by 60
“The Climate Research Unit (CRU) is based on the reanalysis of 4000 stations spanning a period of 1901–2012 [34].”
Method
Non-stomatal processes reduce gross primary productivity in temperate forest ecosystems during severe edaphic drought
de la Motte, L. G., Beauclaire, Q., Heinesch, B., Cuntz, M., Foltýnová, L., Šigut, L., Kowalska, N., Manca, G., Ignacio, G. B., Vincke, C., et al. (2020) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0527 · Cited by 60
“With global climate change, droughts are likely to be more intense [1,2].”
Background
Retrospective analysis of wood anatomical traits and tree‐ring isotopes suggests site‐specific mechanisms triggering Araucaria araucana drought‐induced dieback
Puchi, P. F., Camarero, J. J., Battipaglia, G., & Carrer, M. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15881 · Cited by 60
Bioprospecting Desert Plants for Endophytic and Biostimulant Microbes: A Strategy for Enhancing Agricultural Production in a Hotter, Drier Future
Zhang, Q., & White, J. F. (2021) · Biology · doi:10.3390/biology10100961 · Cited by 61
“As global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise, agricultural regions are experiencing greater and greater frequencies of drought [18].”
Background
Potential impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection on drought risk managements over major river basins in Africa
Abiodun, B. J., Odoulami, R. C., Sawadogo, W., Oloniyo, O. A., Abatan, A. A., New, M. G., Lennard, C., Pinto, I., Egbebiyi, T. S., & MacMartin, D. G. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03268-w · Cited by 60
Comprehensive global assessment of precipitation trend and pattern variability considering their distribution dynamics
Tahroudi, M. N. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-06050-5 · Cited by 82
Climate risk management for the U.S. cellulosic biofuels supply chain
Langholtz, M., Webb, E., Preston, B. L., Turhollow, A., Breuer, N., Eaton, L., King, A. W., Sokhansanj, S., Nair, S. S., & Downing, M. E. (2014) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2014.05.001 · Cited by 62
Assessing reference evapotranspiration estimation from reanalysis weather products. An application to the Iberian Peninsula
Martins, D., Paredes, P., Raziei, T., Pires, C., Cadima, J. F. C. L., & Pereira, L. S. (2016) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4852 · Cited by 60
“However, reanalysis data may not be an adequate surrogate for weather data influencing hydrological processes as referred by Trenberth et al. (2014) who used reanalysis data for drought analysis but clearly identified the need for free access to observation data for more accurate drought analysis…”
Method
Combined Impacts of Warm Central Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Anthropogenic Warming on the 2019 Severe Drought in East China
Ma, S., Zhu, C., & Liu, J. (2020) · Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00376-020-0077-8 · Cited by 60
Formation of soil phosphorus fractions along a climate and vegetation gradient in the Coastal Cordillera of Chile
Brucker, E., & Spohn, M. (2019) · CATENA · doi:10.1016/j.catena.2019.04.022 · Cited by 60
Application of an improved spatio-temporal identification method of flash droughts
Gou, Q., Zhu, Y., Lü, H., Horton, R., Yu, X., Zhang, H., Wang, X., Su, J., Liu, E., Ding, Z., et al. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127224 · Cited by 64
Drought acclimation of Quercus ilex leaves improves tolerance to moderate drought but not resistance to severe water stress
Limousin, J., Roussel, A., Rodríguez‐Calcerrada, J., Ruiz, J. M. T., Moreno, M., de Jalón, L. G., Ourcival, J., Simioni, G., Cochard, H., & Martin-StPaul, N. K. (2022) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.14326 · Cited by 59
Warming and greening exacerbate the propagation risk from meteorological to soil moisture drought
Li, Y., Huang, S., Wang, H. E., Huang, Q., Li, P. X., Zheng, X., Wang, Z., Jiang, S., Leng, G., Li, J., et al. (2023) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129716 · Cited by 59
Drought legacies delay spring green-up in northern ecosystems
Liu, Y., Zhang, Y., Peñuelas, J., Kannenberg, S. A., Gong, H., Yuan, W., Wu, C., Zhou, S., & Piao, S. L. (2025) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02273-6 · Cited by 64
“…are projected to increase with future warming 23 , which may be further exacerbated by increased evapotranspiration alongside vegetation greening 14,24 , the lack of a mechanistic understanding of drought legacies may introduce substantial uncertainty into future spring phenology projections.”
Quantifying drought-induced tree mortality in the open canopy woodlands of central Texas
Schwantes, A. M., Swenson, J., & Jackson, R. (2016) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2016.03.027 · Cited by 54
“…precipitation, warmer temperatures will increase the frequency of droughts, affecting ecosystems faster and more intensely than in recent decades and centuries (Trenberth et al., 2014), likely leading to increased vulnerability of trees to drought stress (Allen, Breshears, & McDowell, 2015).”
Estimates of Global Surface Hydrology and Heat Fluxes from the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) with Four Atmospheric Forcing Datasets
Wang, A., Zeng, X., & Guo, D. (2016) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-16-0041.1 · Cited by 59
Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: identifying critical processes in a land surface model
Ukkola, A., Pitman, A. J., Decker, M., Kauwe, M. G. D., Abramowitz, G., Kala, J., & Wang, Y. (2016) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-20-2403-2016 · Cited by 58
Drought Monitoring of Southwestern China Using Insufficient GRACE Data for the Long-Term Mean Reference Frame under Global Change
Zhao, C., Huang, Y., Li, Z., & Chen, M. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0869.1 · Cited by 58
Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus
Wang, A., Wang, Y., Su, B., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Tao, H., Wen, S., Qin, J., Gong, Y., & Jiang, T. (2020) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001448 · Cited by 58
Central Asian Precipitation Shaped by the Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
Jiang, J., Zhou, T., Chen, X., & Wu, B. (2021) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0905.1 · Cited by 58
“GPCC is chosen as data from more stations are available and this dataset is more suitable to detect the long-term precipitation variations over central Asia compared with other datasets (Trenberth et al. 2014; Hu et al. 2018).”
Method
Animal-derived plant biostimulant alleviates drought stress by regulating photosynthesis, osmotic adjustment, and antioxidant systems in tomato plants
Wang, W., Zheng, W., Lv, H., Liang, B., Jin, S., Li, J., & Zhou, W. (2022) · Scientia Horticulturae · doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2022.111365 · Cited by 58
Vegetation Greening and Climate Warming Increased the Propagation Risk From Meteorological Drought to Soil Drought at Subseasonal Timescales
Ma, F., & Yuan, X. (2024) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl107937 · Cited by 57
“Over southern Australia and western United States, the significant warming can increase the demand for water in the atmosphere and aggravate the loss of soil water (Trenberth et al., 2014; M. Zhang et al., 2022), which hence leads to increased drought propagation risk.”
Background
Unleashing the power of machine learning and remote sensing for robust seasonal drought monitoring: A stacking ensemble approach
Xu, X., Chen, F., Wang, B., Harrison, M. T., Chen, Y. J., Liu, K., Zhang, C., Zhang, M., Zhang, X., Feng, P., et al. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131102 · Cited by 61
Seasonal Drivers of the Epidemiology of Arthropod-Borne Viruses in Australia
Geoghegan, J. L., Walker, P. J., Duchemin, J., Jeanne, I., & Holmes, E. C. (2014) · PLoS neglected tropical diseases · doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003325 · Cited by 58
“Consistent with global climate trends, long-term climatic data in Australia show that temperature is increasing [39–41].”
Background
Response of ecosystem productivity to dry/wet conditions indicated by different drought indices
Wang, H., He, B., Zhang, Y., Huang, L., Chen, Z., & Liu, J. (2017) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.212 · Cited by 58
“PDSI is one of the most popular drought indices, accounting for the balance of precipitation, runoff and ET (Dai et al., 2009; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Is Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) a Useful Indicator to Forecast Groundwater Droughts? — Insights from a Karst Aquifer
Uddameri, V., Singaraju, S., & Hernandez, E. A. (2018) · JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association · doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12698 · Cited by 58
Drought Characteristics Assessment in Europe over the Past 50 Years
Oikonomou, P. D., Karavitis, C. A., Tsesmelis, D. E., Kolokytha, E., & Maia, R. (2020) · Water Resources Management · doi:10.1007/s11269-020-02688-0 · Cited by 62
Soil-dependent responses of US crop yields to climate variability and depth to groundwater
Huang, J., Hartemink, A. E., & Kucharik, C. J. (2021) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103085 · Cited by 63
Eutrophication drives divergent water clarity responses to decadal variation in lake level
Lisi, P. J., & Hein, C. L. (2018) · Limnology and Oceanography · doi:10.1002/lno.11095 · Cited by 57
“Changes in the water cycle are expected, and for many regions that will include more frequent extreme precipitation events and prolonged drought periods, which may exacerbate P and lake eutrophication (Trenberth et al. 2013; Carpenter et al. 2015).”
Background
Dynamic drought recovery patterns over the Yangtze River Basin
Huang, L., Zhou, P., Cheng, L., & Liu, Z. (2021) · CATENA · doi:10.1016/j.catena.2021.105194 · Cited by 57
Use of a multiscalar GRACE-based standardized terrestrial water storage index for assessing global hydrological droughts
Cui, A., Li, J., Zhou, Q., Zhu, R., Liu, H., Wu, G., & Li, Q. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126871 · Cited by 59
Serendipita indica alleviates drought stress responses in walnut (Juglans regia L.) seedlings by stimulating osmotic adjustment and antioxidant defense system
Liu, B., Jing, D., Liu, F., Ma, H., Liu, X., & Peng, L. (2021) · Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology · doi:10.1007/s00253-021-11653-9 · Cited by 58
Leaf anatomical alterations reduce cotton's mesophyll conductance under dynamic drought stress conditions
Zou, J., Hu, W., Li, Y., Zhu, H., He, J., Wang, Y., Meng, Y., Chen, B., Zhao, W., Wang, S., et al. (2022) · The Plant Journal · doi:10.1111/tpj.15794 · Cited by 56
The blue revolution: sustainable water management for a thirsty world
Onyena, A. P., & Sam, K. (2025) · Discover Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s43621-024-00631-6 · Cited by 57
“The impact of climate change exacerbates these challenges by modifying precipitation patterns and compromising water quality [18, 19].”
Overriding control of methane flux temporal variability by water table dynamics in a Southern Hemisphere, raised bog
Goodrich, J. P., Campbell, D. I., Roulet, N. T., Clearwater, M. J., & Schipper, L. A. (2015) · Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences · doi:10.1002/2014jg002844 · Cited by 57
“…the drought effects on ecosystem methane fluxes in other peatland types and regions are valuable in reducing uncertainties around future peatland CH4 emissions across the globe given the potential for increased severity of drought as a consequence of climate change [Trenberth et al., 2014].”
Background
Future-proof crops: challenges and strategies for climate resilience improvement
Kissoudis, C., van de Wiel, C. C. M., Visser, R. G. F., & van der Linden, G. (2016) · Current Opinion in Plant Biology · doi:10.1016/j.pbi.2016.01.005 · Cited by 79
Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate
Zhou, L. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep31065 · Cited by 62
Salinity pulses interact with seasonal dry‐down to increase ecosystem carbon loss in marshes of the Florida Everglades
Wilson, B. J., Servais, S., Mazzei, V., Kominoski, J. S., Hu, M., Davis, S. E., Gaiser, E. E., Sklar, F. H., Bauman, L., Kelly, S. P., et al. (2018) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.1798 · Cited by 57
Impacts of climate change on hydrological droughts at basin scale: A case study of the Weihe River Basin, China
Zhao, P., Lü, H., Yang, H., Wang, W., & Fu, G. (2019) · Quaternary International · doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2019.02.022 · Cited by 57
Abiotic Stress and Belowground Microbiome: The Potential of Omics Approaches
Sandrini, M., Nerva, L., Sillo, F., Balestrini, R., Chitarra, W., & Zampieri, E. (2022) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms23031091 · Cited by 57
Fairness matters when responding to disasters: An experimental study of government legitimacy
Mazepus, H., & van Leeuwen, F. (2019) · Governance · doi:10.1111/gove.12440 · Cited by 60
“as floods, tornados, and draughts more extreme (Trenberth, 2012; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Explaining Extreme Events of 2018 from a Climate Perspective
Herring, S. C., Christidis, N., Hoell, A., Hoerling, M. P., & Stott, P. A. (2020) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-explainingextremeevents2018.1 · Cited by 60
Tracking Moisture Sources of Precipitation over Central Asia: A Study Based on the Water-Source-Tagging Method
Jiang, J., Zhou, T., Wang, H., Qian, Y., Noone, D., & Man, W. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0169.1 · Cited by 56
Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania
Zarei, A., Chemura, A., Gleixner, S., & Hoff, H. (2021) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107600 · Cited by 56
Correcting Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration using a global grid of local coefficients to support temperature-based estimations of reference evapotranspiration and aridity indices
(2022) · doi:10.5194/essd-14-163-2022 · Cited by 56
Future droughts in northern Italy: high-resolution projections using EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX ensembles
Baronetti, A., Dubreuil, V., Provenzale, A., & Fratianni, S. (2022) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03370-7 · Cited by 56
“The application of SPEI and SPI has revealed a high complexity of the individual drought events: both indices were able to detect the same drought events, but marked differences were present in the estimated percentage of drought-affected area, suggesting that droughts may depend on different triggering factors (Trenb…”
Background
Mechanisms for stronger warming over drier ecoregions observed since 1979
Liming Zhou, B., Chen, H., Hua, W., Dai, Y., & Wei, N. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3007-9 · Cited by 56
“Climate models project drying over many areas in low- and mid-latitudes under increasing GHG concentrations (Trenberth et al. 2013).”
Background
The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale
Sun, Q., Miao, C., Qiao, Y., & Duan, Q. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3586-0 · Cited by 62
“As temperatures change, the occurrence of temperature extremes tends to increase, leading to greater probability that droughts and heat waves will occur simultaneously, thereby intensifying drought severity (AghaKouchak et al. 2014; Trenberth et al. 2013).”
Background
Contrasting global teleconnection features of the eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño events
Alizadeh, O. (2017) · Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans · doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2017.10.004 · Cited by 56
Novel Digital Features Discriminate Between Drought Resistant and Drought Sensitive Rice Under Controlled and Field Conditions
Duan, L., Han, J., Guo, Z., Tu, H., Yang, P., Zhang, D., Fan, Y., Chen, G., Xiong, L., Dai, M., et al. (2018) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2018.00492 · Cited by 56
“Thus, water scarcity has become an urgent global and environmental problem (Hussain and Mumtaz, 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Generating Plants with Improved Water Use Efficiency
Blankenagel, S., Yang, Z., Avramova, V., Schön, C., & Grill, E. (2018) · Agronomy · doi:10.3390/agronomy8090194 · Cited by 56
“Global food security is further challenged by climate change, with a predicted increase in frequency of droughts [2,3].”
Background
Plant host and drought shape the root associated fungal microbiota in rice
Andreo‐Jiménez, B., Vandenkoornhuyse, P., Van, A. L., Heutinck, A., Duhamel, M., Kadam, N. N., Jagadish, S. V. K., Ruyter-Spira, C. P., & Bouwmeester, H. J. (2019) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.7463 · Cited by 56
“The resulting higher temperatures act to reinforce the effect of drought ( Trenberth et al., 2014 ).”
Background
Evaluation of hot temperature extremes and heat waves in the Mississippi River Basin
Tavakol, A., Rahmani, V., & Harrington, J. A. (2020) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104907 · Cited by 58
Impacts of soil water stress on the acclimated stomatal limitation of photosynthesis: Insights from stable carbon isotope data
Lavergne, A., Sandoval, D., Hare, V., Graven, H., & Prentice, I. C. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15364 · Cited by 56

Authors: Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J.
Affiliations: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
University of East Anglia (GB)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Trenberth, Kevin E.
ORCID: Trenberth, Kevin E.
Dai, Aiguo
Jones, Philip D.
Barichivich, Jonathan
Briffa, Keith R.
Sheffield, Justin
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2013-12-20
Volume: 4
Issue: 1
Pages: 17-22
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2067
OpenAlex: W2108886061
Cited by: 3,382
References: 41
Citations by year: 2026: 299 · 2025: 317 · 2024: 360 · 2023: 347 · 2022: 397 · 2021: 399 · 2020: 332 · 2019: 243 · 2018: 232 · 2017: 170 · 2016: 148 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 1
FWCI: 71.19
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
HAL (submittedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
Oskar-Bordeaux (Universite de Bordeaux) (submittedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy (DESC0005689)
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G018863/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Keywords: drought, climate change impacts, Palmer Drought Severity Index, evapotranspiration, precipitation data quality, natural variation, ENSO, La Niña, drought attribution, global warming

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