Cited by 3,382Hydrology and Drought AnalysisClimate variability and modelsPlant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

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Global warming and changes in drought

Trenberth, Kevin E., Dai, Aiguo, van der Schrier, Gerard, Jones, Philip D., Barichivich, Jonathan, Briffa, Keith R., Sheffield, Justin·2014·Nature Climate Change

DOI 10.1038/nclimate2067

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Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America
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Community forest management in Indonesia: Avoided deforestation in the context of anthropogenic and climate complexities
Santika, T., Meijaard, E., Budiharta, S., Law, E. A., Kusworo, A., Hutabarat, J. A., Indrawan, T. P., Struebig, M. J., Raharjo, S., Huda, I., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.08.002 · Cited by 194
“Indonesia is expected to experience more intense droughts in the future due to global warming (Trenberth et al., 2014; Nur’utami and Hidayat, 2016).”
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Background
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Gao, Y., Li, X., Leung, L.-Y. R., Chen, D., & Xu, J. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034013 · Cited by 174
“Some studies addressed a global expansion in drought (Loukas et al 2008, Li et al 2009, Dai et al 2011, Chen and Chen 2013, Trenberth et al 2014, Fu and Feng 2014) or drylands (Feng and Fu 2013) due to the warming.”
Background
Anthropogenic warming and intraseasonal summer monsoon variability amplify the risk of future flash droughts in India
Mishra, V. K., Aadhar, S., & Mahto, S. S. (2021) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-020-00158-3 · Cited by 179
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“Despite the need for hydrological drought information, most large-scale future drought studies focus either on precipitation or soil moisture (e.g. Burke et al., 2006; Sheffield and Wood, 2008; Sheffield et al., 2012; Dai, 2013; Orlowsky and Seneviratne, 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Monitoring the vegetation activity in China using vegetation health indices
Pei, F., Wu, C., Liu, X., Li, X., Yang, K., Zhou, Y., Wang, K., Xu, L., & Xia, G. (2017) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.10.001 · Cited by 174
How Unusual Is the 2022 European Compound Drought and Heatwave Event?
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“As global temperatures continue to rise, it is anticipated that the severity and frequency of droughts and heatwaves will become more intense in the future (Fischer et al., 2021; Hao et al., 2018; Perkins et al., 2012; Teuling, 2018; Trenberth et al., 2014; Tripathy et al., 2023).”
Background
Soil Water Holding Capacity Mitigates Downside Risk and Volatility in US Rainfed Maize: Time to Invest in Soil Organic Matter?
Williams, A., Hunter, M. C., Kammerer, M. A., Kane, D. A., Jordan, N. R., Mortensen, D. A., Smith, R. G., Snapp, S. S., & Davis, A. S. (2016) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0160974 · Cited by 181
Patterns of post‐drought recovery are strongly influenced by drought duration, frequency, post‐drought wetness, and bioclimatic setting
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Long-Term Organic Fertilization Promotes the Resilience of Soil Multifunctionality Driven by Bacterial Communities
Luo, J., Liao, G., Banerjee, S., Gu, S., Liang, J., Guo, X., Zhao, H., Liang, Y., & Li, T. (2021) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2022.108922 · Cited by 180
Impact of agricultural drought on main crop yields in the Republic of Moldova
Potopová, V., Boroneant, C., Boincean, B. P., & Soukup, J. (2015) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.4481 · Cited by 178
“This is due to the complexity of droughts, and the nuances of their long-term development and duration, progressive character of impacts, and diffuse spatial limits (Mavromatis, 2007, 2010; Sheffield et al., 2012; Dai, 2013; WMO, 2013; Beguería et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014; Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014a, 2014b…”
Background
Arbuscular mycorrhiza effects on plant performance under osmotic stress
Santander, C., Aroca, R., Ruíz-Lozano, J. M., Olave, J., Cartes, P., Borie, F., & Cornejo, P. (2017) · Mycorrhiza · doi:10.1007/s00572-017-0784-x · Cited by 179
“…salinity represent the environmental abiotic stresses that most limit plant growth at present (Kramer and Boyer 1997; Cattivelli et al. 2008; Lambers et al. 2008; Trenberth et al. 2014), with greatest effects in arid and semiarid areas (Knapp et al. 2001; Seki et al. 2003; Fischlin et al. 2007).”
Background
Impacts of recent drought and warm years on water resources and electricity supply worldwide
van Vliet, M. T. H., Sheffield, J., Wiberg, D. A., & Wood, E. F. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124021 · Cited by 190
“Potential increases in the severity of streamflow droughts (e.g. Prudhomme et al 2014, Trenberth et al 2014) and heatwaves (e.g. Christidis et al 2015) under changing climate will therefore directly impact energy security.”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Can Barents Sea Ice Decline in Spring Enhance Summer Hot Drought Events over Northeastern China?
Li, H., Chen, H., Wang, H., Sun, J., & Ma, J. (2018) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0429.1 · Cited by 169
Intermittency in Precipitation: Duration, Frequency, Intensity, and Amounts Using Hourly Data
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“For instance, Trenberth et al. (2014) and Dai and Zhao (2017) revealed important differences among datasets arising mostly from the number of stations with data included in the analysis.”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Global drought trends under 1.5 and 2 °C warming
Xu, L., Chen, N., & Zhang, X. (2018) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.5958 · Cited by 171
Global gross primary productivity and water use efficiency changes under drought stress
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“12 (2017) 014016 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5258 © 2017 IOP Publishing Ltd 7 (Trenberth et al 2014).”
Influential
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“com/jo we can expect warmer temperatures, greater vapour pressure deficits (VPDLA; McDowell & Allen, 2015) and more frequent and severe droughts (Allen, Breshears, & McDowell, 2015; Diffenbaugh, Swain, & Touma, 2015; Polley, Briske, Wolter, Bailey, & Brown, 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014) than experienced in the recent…”
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Leaf hydraulic vulnerability triggers the decline in stomatal and mesophyll conductance during drought in rice
Wang, X., Du, T., Huang, J., Peng, S., & Xiong, D. (2018) · Journal of Experimental Botany · doi:10.1093/jxb/ery188 · Cited by 161
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Lennox, R. J., Crook, D. A., Moyle, P. B., Struthers, D. P., & Cooke, S. J. (2019) · Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries · doi:10.1007/s11160-018-09545-9 · Cited by 177
“Temperatures have progressively warmed through the late 20th and 21st centuries and are projected to continue increasing (IPCC 2007), accelerating evaporative water loss and contributing to drought (Gregory et al. 1997; Dai 2013; Trenberth et al. 2014).”
Background
Beneficial microbes ameliorate abiotic and biotic sources of stress on plants
Porter, S. S., Bantay, R., Friel, C. A., Garoutte, A., Gdanetz, K., Ibarreta, K., Moore, B. M., Shetty, P., Siler, E., & Friesen, M. (2019) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.13499 · Cited by 166
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Long-term decline in grassland productivity driven by increasing dryness
Brookshire, E. N. J., & Weaver, T. (2015) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms8148 · Cited by 160
Evidence for a rhizobia-induced drought stress response strategy in Medicago truncatula
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Tree resilience to drought increases in the Tibetan Plateau
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“Moreover, with the added pressures of climate change, the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts will likely increase in many regions across the globe (Asadieh and Krakauer, 2017; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Soil Moisture Drought in Europe: A Compound Event of Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration on Multiple Time Scales
Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Loon, A. F. V., Maraun, D., & Vrac, M. (2018) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm-d-18-0017.1 · Cited by 160
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“It has been noted that the onset of droughts is starting earlier in the year, shifting towards spring (Beniston et al., 2007; Giannako-poulos et al., 2009; Trenberth et al., 2014; Samaniego et al., 2018).”
Background
Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe
Gudmundsson, L., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044005 · Cited by 160
Long-term spatiotemporal variation of drought patterns over the Greater Horn of Africa
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“The main driving factors for the increased occurrence of drought in the GHA are natural climate variability and anthropogenic inﬂuences (Dinku et al., 2011; Funk et al., 2015; IPCC, 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Root metabolic plasticity underlies functional diversity in mycorrhiza‐enhanced stress tolerance in tomato
Rivero, J., Álvarez, D., Flors, V., Azcón‐Aguilar, C., & Pozo, M. J. (2018) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15295 · Cited by 154
Agricultural drought mitigating indices derived from the changes in drought characteristics
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System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles
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“Overcoming this phenomenon requires a shift from short-term to long-term thinking (Figure 4) [1].”
Background
High Sensitivity of Compound Drought and Heatwave Events to Global Warming in the Future
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“, 2014), drought (Ault, 2020; Dai, 2011; Trenberth et al., 2014; G. Wu et al., 2022), heavy precipitation (Fischer & Knutti, 2016; Min et al.”
Comparative numerical study on the co-optimization of CO2 storage and utilization in EOR, EGR, and EWR: Implications for CCUS project development
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Effect of water stress “memory” on plant behavior during subsequent drought stress
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Monitoring winter wheat drought threat in Northern China using multiple climate-based drought indices and soil moisture during 2000–2013
Wang, H., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Tao, F., Zhang, X., Wang, P., Zhang, C., Chen, Y., Zhu, D., & Kenawy, A. E. (2016) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.06.004 · Cited by 157
The tropical atlantic observing system
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Drought promotes soil phosphorus transformation and reduces phosphorus bioavailability in a temperate forest
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Review of Meteorological Drought in Africa: Historical Trends, Impacts, Mitigation Measures, and Prospects
Ayugi, B. O., Eresanya, E. O., Onyango, A. O., Ogou, F. K., Okoro, E. C., Okoye, C. O., Anoruo, C. M., Dike, V. N., Ashiru, O. R., Daramola, M. T., et al. (2022) · Pure and Applied Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s00024-022-02988-z · Cited by 179
Do banks price environmental transition risks? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China
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Shifts in pore connectivity from precipitation versus groundwater rewetting increases soil carbon loss after drought
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The effect of climate type on timescales of drought propagation in an ensemble of global hydrological models
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Drought characterization over India under projected climate scenario
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“Trenberth et al. (2013) suggested the likelihood of more extensive natural droughts with a possibility of quick onset, higher intensity, and longer duration.”
Background
Drought and Desertification in Iran
Emadodin, I., Reinsch, T., & Taube, F. (2019) · Hydrology · doi:10.3390/hydrology6030066 · Cited by 148
“Dry gets drier, wet gets wetter”: A case study over the arid regions of central Asia
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Meta-analysis Reveals Different Competition Effects on Tree Growth Resistance and Resilience to Drought
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The Potential Role of Microbial Biostimulants in the Amelioration of Climate Change-Associated Abiotic Stresses on Crops
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“Drought stress has been increasingly severe and frequent, especially in semi-arid regions (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Exploring the use of recombinant inbred lines in combination with beneficial microbial inoculants (AM fungus and PGPR) to improve drought stress tolerance in tomato
Calvo‐Polanco, M., Sánchez‐Romera, B., Aroca, R., Asíns, M. J., Declerck, S., Dodd, I. C., Martínez‐Andújar, C., Albacete, A. A., & Ruíz-Lozano, J. M. (2016) · Environmental and Experimental Botany · doi:10.1016/j.envexpbot.2016.06.015 · Cited by 145
Biochar Mitigates Combined Effects of Drought and Salinity Stress in Quinoa
Yang, A., Akhtar, S. S., Li, L., Fu, Q., Li, Q., Naeem, M. A., He, X., Zhang, Z., & Jacobsen, S. (2020) · Agronomy · doi:10.3390/agronomy10060912 · Cited by 152
“Global climate change is expected to cause increased temperatures and more unevenly distributed precipitation, resulting in severe drought, heat wave, and soil salinity in arid and semi-arid areas [1,2].”
Background
Dynamics and characteristics of dry and moist heatwaves over East Asia
Ha, K., Seo, Y., Yeo, J., Timmermann, A., Chung, E., Franzke, C. L. E., Chan, J. C. L., Yeh, S., & Ting, M. (2022) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00272-4 · Cited by 145
Stress memory and its regulation in plants experiencing recurrent drought conditions
Kambona, C. M., Koua, A. P., Léon, J., & Ballvora, A. (2023) · Theoretical and Applied Genetics · doi:10.1007/s00122-023-04313-1 · Cited by 161
Not all droughts are created equal: the impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling
Hoover, D. L., & Rogers, B. M. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13161 · Cited by 149
“Over the next century, global climate models project an increase in the frequency and severity of droughts due to higher temperatures and changes in precipitation (Dai, 2012; IPCC, 2013; Trenberth et al., 2014; Cook et al., 2015).”
Background
Moving from drought hazard to impact forecasts
Sutanto, S. J., van der Weert, M., Wanders, N., Blauhut, V., & Van Lanen, H. A. J. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12840-z · Cited by 144
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Background
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Background
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Background
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Background
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Background
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Background
Changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming
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Background
Hydroclimatic trends during 1950–2018 over global land
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Self-citation

Authors: Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J.
Affiliations: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
University of East Anglia (GB)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Trenberth, Kevin E.
ORCID: Trenberth, Kevin E.
Dai, Aiguo
Jones, Philip D.
Barichivich, Jonathan
Briffa, Keith R.
Sheffield, Justin
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2013-12-20
Volume: 4
Issue: 1
Pages: 17-22
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2067
OpenAlex: W2108886061
Cited by: 3,382
References: 41
Citations by year: 2026: 299 · 2025: 317 · 2024: 360 · 2023: 347 · 2022: 397 · 2021: 399 · 2020: 332 · 2019: 243 · 2018: 232 · 2017: 170 · 2016: 148 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 1
FWCI: 71.19
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
HAL (submittedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
Oskar-Bordeaux (Universite de Bordeaux) (submittedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy (DESC0005689)
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G018863/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Keywords: drought, climate change impacts, Palmer Drought Severity Index, evapotranspiration, precipitation data quality, natural variation, ENSO, La Niña, drought attribution, global warming

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