Cited by 3,382Hydrology and Drought AnalysisClimate variability and modelsPlant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

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Global warming and changes in drought

Trenberth, Kevin E., Dai, Aiguo, van der Schrier, Gerard, Jones, Philip D., Barichivich, Jonathan, Briffa, Keith R., Sheffield, Justin·2014·Nature Climate Change

DOI 10.1038/nclimate2067

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“Intensifying droughts (Trenberth et al., 2014; Schlaepfer et al., 2017), fire impacts (Sankey et al.”
Background
Daily SPEI Reveals Long-term Change in Drought Characteristics in Southwest China
Jia, Y., Zhang, B., & Ma, B. (2018) · Chinese Geographical Science · doi:10.1007/s11769-018-0973-3 · Cited by 47
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Climate gerontology
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Climate change impacts on the aptitude area of forest species
Pirovani, D. B., Pezzopane, J. E. M., Xavier, A. C., Pezzopane, J. R. M., de Jesús, W. C., Herrera, M. Á., dos Santos, G. M. A. D. A., da Silva, S. F., de Almeida, S. L. H., Pelúzio, T. M. D. O., et al. (2018) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.08.002 · Cited by 46
“Studies show an increase in temperature of the atmosphere and oceans, a reduction in the amount of snow and ice, and rising sea levels and greenhouse gas concentrations (Dai, 2012; Fu et al., 2015; IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2013; Peters et al., 2012; Rogelj et al., 2011; Romps et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2013).”
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Does climate risk exposure affect corporate leverage adjustment speed? International evidence
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Background
CAM6 simulation of mean and extreme precipitation over Asia: sensitivity to upgraded physical parameterizations and higher horizontal resolution
Lin, L., Gettelman, A., Xu, Y., Wu, C., Wang, Z., Rosenbloom, N. A., Bates, S. C., & Dong, W. (2019) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-12-3773-2019 · Cited by 46
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Background
Longer-lived tropical songbirds reduce breeding activity as they buffer impacts of drought
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Projected Meteorological Drought over Asian Drylands under Different CMIP6 Scenarios
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“We used the Penman–Monteith equation to integrate the effects of thermal and dynamic factors such as temperature, solar and infrared radiation, humidity, and wind speed changes on evapotranspiration [4,37].”
BackgroundMethodInfluential
ENSO in the Global Climate System
Trenberth, K. E. (2020) · Geophysical monograph · doi:10.1002/9781119548164.ch2 · Cited by 53
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Differences in multi‐model ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections for future droughts in South Korea
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Probabilistic Evaluation of Drought in CMIP6 Simulations
Papalexiou, S. M., Rajulapati, C. R., Andreadis, K. M., Foufoula‐Georgiou, E., Clark, M. P., & Trenberth, K. E. (2021) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2021ef002150 · Cited by 45
“Furthermore, due to climate change and rising temperatures, droughts are expected to increase in terms of both frequency and duration (Markonis et al., 2021; Spinoni et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014; M. Zhang et al., 2013).”
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Assessment and attribution of China’s droughts using an integrated drought index derived from GRACE and GRACE-FO data
Deng, S., Liu, S., & Mo, X. (2021) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127170 · Cited by 45
A reversal in global occurrences of flash drought around 2000 identified by rapid changes in the standardized evaporative stress ratio
Deng, S., Tan, X., Liu, B., Yang, F. Y., & Yan, T. (2022) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157427 · Cited by 46
Seed priming with protein hydrolysate promotes seed germination via reserve mobilization, osmolyte accumulation and antioxidant systems under PEG-induced drought stress
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“Drought is a major abiotic stress that threatens plant growth, development, and yield production by inhibiting various physiological processes (Fabregas and Fernie 2019; Razi and Muneer 2021; Trenberth et al. 2013).”
Background
Using ecosystem integrity to maximize climate mitigation and minimize risk in international forest policy
Rogers, B. M., Mackey, B., Shestakova, T. A., Keith, H., Young, V., Kormos, C., DellaSala, D. A., Dean, J., Birdsey, R. A., Bush, G., et al. (2022) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2022.929281 · Cited by 53
“, 2018), and are expected to increase with future climate change (Cook et al., 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014; Yi et al., 2014; Xu et al., 2019; Zhou et al., 2019; De Faria et al., 2021).”
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The Role of Deadwood in the Carbon Cycle: Implications for Models, Forest Management, and Future Climates
Wijas, B. J., Allison, S., Austin, A. T., Cornwell, W. K., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Eggleton, P., Fraver, S., Ooi, M. K. J., Powell, J. R., Woodall, C. W., et al. (2024) · Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110421-102327 · Cited by 50
A comprehensive review of recent progress on the drought-flood abrupt alternation
Zhang, G., Wang, H., Gan, T. Y., Zhang, S., Zhao, J., Su, X., Fu, X., Shi, L., Xu, P., Lu, M., et al. (2025) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133806 · Cited by 56
Changes in the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts over Ethiopia from 1960 to 2013
Kenawy, A. E., McCabe, M. F., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., López‐Moreno, J. I., & Robaa, S. M. (2016) · Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica · doi:10.18172/cig.2931 · Cited by 45
“, intensity, severity and spatial extent of occurrence) (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
Background
Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest
Gu, L., Pallardy, S. G., Yang, B., Hosman, K. P., Mao, J., Ricciuto, D. M., Shi, X., & Sun, Y. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences · doi:10.1002/2015jg003302 · Cited by 45
“…consideration andmodel simulation generally suggest that atmospheric warming will shift precipitation regimes toward more intense but less frequent precipitation events with increased risk of heat wave, drought, and flood [e.g., Sherwood and Fu, 2014; Trenberth et al., 2014; Giorgi et al., 2014].”
Background
Combining satellite observations to develop a global soil moisture product for near-real-time applications
Enenkel, M., Reimer, C., Dorigo, W. A., Wagner, W., Pfeil, I., Parinussa, R., & de Jeu, R. (2016) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-20-4191-2016 · Cited by 45
Relating Spatiotemporal Patterns of Forest Fires Burned Area and Duration to Diurnal Land Surface Temperature Anomalies
Maffei, C., Alfieri, S. M., & Menenti, M. (2018) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs10111777 · Cited by 45
“In Mediterranean ecosystems, prolonged droughts and heat waves create the preconditions for increases in frequency and intensity of forest fires [13,14], the underlying mechanism being the reduction of live and dead fuels moisture content as a response of the soil-plant system to increased vapor-pressure deficit [11,1…”
Background
Impact of climate model resolution on soil moisture projections in central-western Europe
van der Linden, E. C., Haarsma, R., & van der Schrier, G. (2019) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-23-191-2019 · Cited by 45
Identification of Drought Events and Correlations with Large-Scale Ocean–Atmospheric Patterns of Variability: A Case Study in Xinjiang, China
Yao, J., Tuoliewubieke, D., Chen, J., Huo, W., & Hu, W. (2019) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos10020094 · Cited by 45
Low Nitrogen Priming Enhances Photosynthesis Adaptation to Water-Deficit Stress in Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Seedlings
Gao, J., Luo, Q., Sun, C., Hu, H., Wang, F., Tian, Z., Jiang, D., Cao, W., & Dai, T. (2019) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2019.00818 · Cited by 45
“Long-term global warming is predicted to increase soil drying because heating increases evaporation from plants and the soil surface (Trenberth et al., 2014; Cushman et al., 2015).”
Background
Spatio-temporal variation of drought characteristics, water resource availability and the relation of drought with large scale climate indices: A case study of Jhelum basin, India
Himayoun, D., & Roshni, T. (2019) · Quaternary International · doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2019.07.018 · Cited by 45
Long-term nitrogen addition and precipitation reduction decrease soil nematode community diversity in a temperate forest
Wang, H., Liu, G., Huang, B., Wang, X., Xing, Y., & Wang, Q. (2021) · Applied Soil Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.apsoil.2021.103895 · Cited by 45
Assessment of Merged Satellite Precipitation Datasets in Monitoring Meteorological Drought over Pakistan
Rahman, K. U., Shang, S., & Zohaib, M. (2021) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs13091662 · Cited by 45
“Therefore, the insufficiency of RGs for monitoring droughts has been addressed in a number of studies [20,29,30], which is emphasizing on application and development of continuous precipitation datasets for drought assessment [19].”
Background
Climate change and ecological engineering jointly induced vegetation greening in global karst regions from 2001 to 2020
Huang, J., Ge, Z., Huang, Y., Tang, X., Shi, Z., Lai, P., Song, Z., Hao, B., Yang, H., & Ma, M. (2021) · Plant and Soil · doi:10.1007/s11104-021-05054-0 · Cited by 48
“Especially in the recent decades, drought occurred with longer durations, greater intensities and more frequently, with the serious impact on karst ecosystem (Trenberth et al. 2014; Williams et al. 2015).”
Background
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on fisheries and aquaculture
(2020) · doi:10.4060/ca8348en · Cited by 44
“ENSO is the primary driver of variation in the global precipitation record (Trenberth et al., 2014), explaining 38 percent of the interannual variance in globally averaged land precipitation and approximately 8 percent of the space–time variability of precipitation at a global level (New et al.”
Background
60-year record of stem xylem anatomy and related hydraulic modification under increased summer drought in ring- and diffuse-porous temperate broad-leaved tree species
Zimmermann, J., Link, R. M., Hauck, M., Leuschner, C., & Schuldt, B. (2021) · Trees · doi:10.1007/s00468-021-02090-2 · Cited by 44
Maize leaf functional responses to blending urea and slow-release nitrogen fertilizer under various drip irrigation regimes
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“…the application of the Penman-Monteith method (PM) (Allen et al. 1998) for PET estimation can result in more reasonable drought trends globally (Trenberth et al. 2014) and throughout China (Chen and Sun 2015), as this method takes more factors Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues *…”
Method
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“Its onset, duration, end, and severity are not easily measurable [9–11], and their effects can slowly accumulate over a substantial period of time, affecting large geographical areas [3,12,13] and numerous sectors, such as environment, agriculture, economy, and society.”
Background
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“, 1993); for instance, the SPI are based on precipitation alone and are limited because they do not deal with the evapotranspiration side of the issue (Trenberth et al., 2014).”
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Background
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Authors: Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., & Sheffield, J.
Affiliations: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
University of East Anglia (GB)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Trenberth, Kevin E.
ORCID: Trenberth, Kevin E.
Dai, Aiguo
Jones, Philip D.
Barichivich, Jonathan
Briffa, Keith R.
Sheffield, Justin
Venue: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2013-12-20
Volume: 4
Issue: 1
Pages: 17-22
ISSN: 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2067
OpenAlex: W2108886061
Cited by: 3,382
References: 41
Citations by year: 2026: 299 · 2025: 317 · 2024: 360 · 2023: 347 · 2022: 397 · 2021: 399 · 2020: 332 · 2019: 243 · 2018: 232 · 2017: 170 · 2016: 148 · 2015: 89 · 2014: 42 · 2013: 1
FWCI: 71.19
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations: Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (acceptedVersion)
HAL (submittedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (submittedVersion)
Oskar-Bordeaux (Universite de Bordeaux) (submittedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy (DESC0005689)
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/G018863/1)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Keywords: drought, climate change impacts, Palmer Drought Severity Index, evapotranspiration, precipitation data quality, natural variation, ENSO, La Niña, drought attribution, global warming

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