Cited by 190COVID-19 epidemiological studiesSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States during 2020

Open access
Pei, Sen, Yamana, Teresa K., Kandula, Sasikiran, Galanti, Marta, Shaman, Jeffrey·2021·Nature

Published version of a preprint

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems and economies throughout the world during 2020 and was particularly devastating for the United States, which experienced the highest numbers of reported cases and deaths during 2020 1-3. Many of the epidemiological features responsible for observed rates of morbidity and mortality have been reported 4-8; however, the overall burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the United States have not been comprehensively quantified. Here we use a data-driven model-inference approach to simulate the pandemic at county-scale in the United States during 2020 and estimate critical, time-varying epidemiological properties underpinning the dynamics of the virus. The pandemic in the United States during 2020 was characterized by national ascertainment rates that increased from 11.3% (95% credible interval (CI): 8.3-15.9%) in March to 24.5% (18.6-32.3%) during December. Population susceptibility at the end of the year was 69.0% (63.6-75.4%), indicating that about one third of the US population had been infected. Community infectious rates, the percentage of people harbouring a contagious infection, increased above 0.8% (0.6-1.0%) before the end of the year, and were as high as 2.4% in some major metropolitan areas. By contrast, the infection fatality rate fell to 0.3% by year's end.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41586-021-03914-4

Cites

45 of 45 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

2 of the 47 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Pei, S., Yamana, T. K., Kandula, S., Galanti, M., & Shaman, J.
Affiliations
Columbia University (US)
Corresponding author
  • Pei, Sen
  • Shaman, Jeffrey
Venue
Nature
Published
2021-08-26
Volume
598
Issue
7880
Pages
338-341
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
OpenAlex
W3195051481
Cited by
190
References
47
Citations by year
2026: 6 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 31 · 2023: 58 · 2022: 64 · 2021: 11
FWCI
15.92
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Nature (publishedVersion)
  • medRxiv (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (2027369)
  • Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, population susceptibility, infection fatality rate, disease transmission dynamics, human mobility, United States
MeSH terms
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Calibration, Humans, United States, Incidence, Prevalence, Cost of Illness, Basic Reproduction Number, Pandemics

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review