The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56)

STEVENS, Richard J.; KOTHARI, Viti; ADLER, Amanda I.; STRATTON, Irene M.

doi:10.1042/cs20000335

Cited by 1,084Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and LipoproteinsDiabetes Treatment and ManagementDiabetes Management and Research

The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56)

STEVENS, Richard J., KOTHARI, Viti, ADLER, Amanda I., STRATTON, Irene M.·2001·Clinical Science

DOI 10.1042/cs20000335

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Abstract

A definitive model for predicting absolute risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in male and female people with Type II diabetes is not yet available. This paper provides an equation for estimating the risk of new CHD events in people with Type II diabetes, based on data from 4540 U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study male and female patients. Unlike previously published risk equations, the model is diabetes-specific and incorporates glycaemia, systolic blood pressure and lipid levels as risk factors, in addition to age, sex, ethnic group, smoking status and time since diagnosis of diabetes. All variables included in the final model were statistically significant (P<0.001, except smoking for which P=0.0013) in likelihood ratio testing. This model provides the estimates of CHD risk required by current guidelines for the primary prevention of CHD in Type II diabetes.

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Authors: STEVENS, R. J., KOTHARI, V., ADLER, A. I., & STRATTON, I. M.
Affiliations: University of Oxford (GB)
ORCID: STEVENS, Richard J.
ADLER, Amanda I.
STRATTON, Irene M.
Venue: Clinical Science
Publisher: Portland Press Ltd.
Published: 2001-12-01
Volume: 101
Issue: 6
Pages: 671
ISSN: 0143-5221 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1042/cs20000335
OpenAlex: W2117191092
Cited by: 1,084
References: 51
Citations by year: 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 33 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 60 · 2020: 46 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 47 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 60 · 2014: 66 · 2013: 68 · 2012: 59
FWCI: 12.67
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Clinical Science (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
Keywords: coronary artery disease, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular risk prediction, risk prediction model, glycemia, systolic blood pressure, serum lipids, primary prevention, smoking, sex differences
MeSH terms: Adult, Blood Pressure, Coronary Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Diabetic Angiopathies, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Glycated Hemoglobin, Humans, Lipids, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, Smoking, Models, Statistical, Survival Rate, Risk Assessment

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The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56)

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