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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
In the citing paper
“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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AQUECIMENTO GLOBAL, OCEANOS & SOCIEDADE
Nobre, P. (2011) · InterfacEHS - Revista de Saúde, Meio Ambiente e Sustentabilidade · Cited by 26
Future land use/land cover and its impacts on ecosystem services: case of Aydın, Turkey
TONYALOĞLU, E. E. (2024) · International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology · doi:10.1007/s13762-024-05907-y · Cited by 26
“…natural habitats and fragmentation can disrupt ecological processes, put species at risk and interfere with carbon balance on the Earth (Houghton et al. et al. 2015; Ren et al. 2023) and sustainable land management practices to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change (Canadell et al. 2007).”
Response of ocean acidification to a gradual increase and decrease of atmospheric CO2
Cao, L., Zhang, H., Zheng, M., & Wang, S. (2014) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024012 · Cited by 26
Can bottom-up ocean CO2 fluxes be reconciled with atmospheric 13C observations?
Alden, C., Miller, J. B., & White, J. (2010) · Tellus B · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00481.x · Cited by 34
“Uncertainty in the air–sea CO 2 flux from the Le Qu´er´e et al. (2007) model is ± 0.4 PgC yr − 1 for the period from 1990 to 2000 (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialGomiero, A., Bellerby, R. G. J., Zeichen, M. M., Babbini, L., & Viarengo, A. (2018) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2018.01.063 · Cited by 26
Ecological sustainability assessment of the carbon footprint in Fujian Province, southeast China
Zeng, J., Zhang, R., Tang, J., Liang, J., Li, J., Zeng, Y., Li, Y., Zhang, Q., Shui, W., & Wang, Q. (2020) · Frontiers of Earth Science · doi:10.1007/s11707-020-0815-3 · Cited by 26
Zhang, X., Li, Q., Zhong, Z., Huang, Z., Bian, F., Yang, C., & Wen, X. (2022) · Journal of Fungi · doi:10.3390/jof8060640 · Cited by 26
Control of phytoplankton bloom inception in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, by Ekman restratification
Long, M. C., Thomas, L. N., & Dunbar, R. B. (2011) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2010gb003982 · Cited by 26
Loucaides, S., Tyrrell, T., Achterberg, E. P., Torres, R., Nightingale, P. D., Kitidis, V., Serret, P., Woodward, M., & Robinson, C. (2012) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2011gb004216 · Cited by 26
“About a quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 released during the last few decades has been taken up by the ocean [Canadell et al., 2007].”
BackgroundProspects of Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration: Implications for Nepal’s Mountain Agriculture
Dahal, N., & Bajracharya, R. M. (2013) · Journal of Forest and Livelihood · doi:10.3126/jfl.v9i1.8593 · Cited by 26
“It is generally agreed that one of the main feedback effects from the climate ecosystems will be through the increase in soil respiration under increased temperature, particularly in the Arctic, with the potential to add 200 ppm CO2 to the atmosphere by 2100 (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundUnderstanding of Coupled Terrestrial Carbon, Nitrogen and Water Dynamics—An Overview
Chen, B., & Coops, N. C. (2009) · Sensors · doi:10.3390/s91108624 · Cited by 26
Hazlewood, J. A. (2012) · Journal of Sustainable Forestry · doi:10.1080/10549811.2011.566539 · Cited by 28
“…land cover change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007) have resulted in a 35–39% increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Canadell et al., 2007; Le Quéré et al., 2007; Raupach et al., 2007; Canadell, Raupach, & Houghton, 2008; Gregg, Andres, & Marland, 2008;…”
BackgroundCarbon dioxide reduction by mononuclear ruthenium polypyridyl complexes
Planas, N., Ono, T., Vaquer, L., Miró, P., Benet‐Buchholz, J., Gagliardi, L., Cramer, C. J., & Llobet, A. (2011) · Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics · doi:10.1039/c1cp22814e · Cited by 26
The Changing Climate: Past, Present, Future
Quante, M. (2009) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-92160-8_2 · Cited by 26
“This rate is the highest since the beginning of continuous monitoring in 1958 and is a significant increase over the increase rates in earlier decades; the average growth rates for the 1980s and the 1990s were 1.58 and 1.49 ppm year−1, respectively (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundInfluentialLong‐term pCO2 trends in Adirondack Lakes
Seekell, D. A., & Gudasz, C. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl068939 · Cited by 26
“…positive and negative) is positive and more than six times greater (12.19μatm yr 1) than the rates of change observed for the atmosphere (1.93μatm yr 1, years 2000–2006; 1.74μatm yr 1, years 1989–2008) and the oceans (1.84 μatm yr 1, years 1989–2008) [Canadell et al., 2007; Doney et al., 2009].”
BackgroundInfluentialDu, F., Du, Q.-S., Dai, J., Tang, P.-D., Li, Y., Long, S., Xie, N., Wang, Q., & Ri-bo, H. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0197188 · Cited by 26
Clement, M. T. (2011) · Society & Natural Resources · doi:10.1080/08941920903482937 · Cited by 27
“Previous research looking at the economic factors influencing changes in carbon emissions over time (e.g., Canadell et al. 2007; Jorgenson 2009; Shi 2003; York 2008) has not incorporated into the analyses a discussion of the Jevons paradox.”
BackgroundSources of uncertainty in global modelling of future soil organic carbon storage
JONES, C. D., & Falloon, P. (2009) · NATO science for peace and security series. C, Environmental security · doi:10.1007/978-90-481-2636-1_13 · Cited by 26
Loveland, T. R., Mahmood, R., Patel-Weynand, T., Karstensen, K. A., Beckendorf, K., Bliss, N. B., & Carleton, A. M. (2012) · Antarctica A Keystone in a Changing World · doi:10.3133/ofr20121155 · Cited by 26
Shao, J., Zhou, X., He, H., Yu, G., Wang, H., Luo, Y., Chen, J., Gu, L., & Li, B. (2014) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-014-9786-0 · Cited by 25
Jiang, L., Yan, Y., Hararuk, O., Mikle, N., Xia, J., Shi, Z., Tjiputra, J. F., Wu, T., & Luo, Y. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00270.1 · Cited by 25
“A substantial proportion of annual anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission is sequestered by terrestrial vegetation (Canadell et al. 2007; Houghton 2007; Le Qu é r é et al. 2014), but this carbon sink may decrease in the future as a result of the positive feedback between climate change and the…”
BackgroundArctic Carbon Cycle: Patterns, Impacts and Possible Changes
Olsen, A. S., Anderson, L. G., & Heinze, C. (2015) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-17602-4_8 · Cited by 25
Regional difference and driving factors of industrial carbon emissions performance in China
Wang, Q., & Zhao, C. (2020) · Alexandria Engineering Journal · doi:10.1016/j.aej.2020.08.009 · Cited by 25
Bolaño-Ortiz, T. R., Puliafito, S. E., Berná, L., Pascual-Flores, R. M., Urquiza, J., & Caicedo, Y. C. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12208661 · Cited by 25
Combined effects of climate change and the herbicide diuron on the coral Acropora millepora
Flores, F., Marques, J. A., Uthicke, S., Fisher, R., Patel, F., Kaserzon, S., & Negri, A. P. (2021) · Marine Pollution Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112582 · Cited by 25
“including a reduction in available carbonate ions to marine calcifying organisms (Ganadell et al., 2007; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007).”
BackgroundBhatta, K. P., Aryal, A., Baral, H., Khanal, S., Acharya, A. K., Phomphakdy, C., & Dorji, R. (2021) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su13137510 · Cited by 25
“Forest structure and composition also have a vital role in the global carbon budget as they act as huge C-pools [5].”
BackgroundGlobal Trends of Carbon Finance: A Bibliometric Analysis
Su, L., Yu, W., & Zhongxuan, Z. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15086784 · Cited by 29
Constraining the Capacity of Global Croplands to CO 2 Drawdown via Mineral Weathering
Haque, F., Khalidy, R., Chiang, Y. W., & Santos, R. M. (2023) · ACS Earth and Space Chemistry · doi:10.1021/acsearthspacechem.2c00374 · Cited by 26
Adapting production forests in southern Sweden to climate change
Felton, A., Ellingson, L., Andersson, E., Drößler, L., & Blennow, K. (2010) · International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management · doi:10.1108/17568691011020274 · Cited by 25
“sinks appear to have declined in efficiency, thus enabling a larger airborne fraction of greenhouse gas emissions to occur ( Canadell et al. , 2007”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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