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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
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“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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Wright, P. C., Tecot, S. R., Erhart, E. M., Baden, A. L., King, S. J., & Grassi, C. (2011) · American Journal of Primatology · doi:10.1002/ajp.20936 · Cited by 65
“In general, tropical forests store 340 billion tons of carbon, equivalent to more than 40 years’ worth of human fossil fuel emissions [Canadell et al., 2007].”
BackgroundGingrich, S., Grešlová, P., & Steinberger, J. K. (2010) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.006 · Cited by 65
“…pace than expected in scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) due to strong economic growth, an increase of carbon intensity (i.e. the amount of carbon emitted per unit of economic output) and increased population growth (Canadell et al., 2007; Raupach et al., 2007).”
BackgroundMethodEmissions in the Platinum Age: the implications of rapid development for climate-change mitigation
Garnaut, R., Howes, S., Jotzo, F., & Sheehan, P. J. (2008) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/grn021 · Cited by 63
Sengupta, M., Bag, A., Ghosh, S., Mondal, P., Bordoloi, A., & Islam, S. M. (2019) · Journal of CO2 Utilization · doi:10.1016/j.jcou.2019.07.036 · Cited by 65
Zickfeld, K., Eby, M., & Weaver, A. J. (2008) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2007gb003118 · Cited by 64
Forest structure and aboveground biomass in the southwestern United States from MODIS and MISR
Chopping, M. J., Schaaf, C., Zhao, F., Wang, Z., Nolin, A. W., Moisen, G. G., Martonchik, J. V., & Bull, M. A. (2011) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2010.08.031 · Cited by 64
“However, the amount and distribution of terrestrial carbon in forests are dynamic and are still poorly known (Canadell et al., 2007; CCSP, 2007; Heimann & Reichstein, 2008).”
BackgroundThe contribution of maize cropping in the Midwest USA to global warming: A regional estimate
Grace, P., Robertson, G. P., Millar, N., Colunga-Garcia, M., Basso, B., Gage, S. H., & Hoben, J. P. (2010) · Agricultural Systems · doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2010.09.001 · Cited by 64
“1 Pg C y 1 (Canadell et al., 2007), therefore in comparison, N2O represents a major area for both concern and mitigation (IPCC, 2007a).”
BackgroundPresent Day Carbon Dioxide Fluxes in the Coastal Ocean and Possible Feedbacks Under Global Change
Borges, A. V. (2010) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-90-481-9821-4_3 · Cited by 69
“…in the atmosphere, the land biosphere is supposed to have absorbed 2.8 PgC year–1, and the oceans have absorbed the remaining 2.2 PgC year–1 (Canadell et al. 2007). hence, oceans are a major component of the global CO 2 cycle. however, the oceans are also vulnerable to climate change…”
BackgroundInfluentialWang, K., Ren, Z., Deng, L., Zhou, Z., Shangguan, Z., Shi, W., & Chen, Y. (2016) · Soil Science Society of America Journal · doi:10.2136/sssaj2015.08.0296 · Cited by 64
“From 1959 to 2006, the average CO2 emission from land use changes was about 1.5 ± 0.5 Pg C yr−1, which contributed 22.4% of the total emissions from human activities (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundInfluentialUeyama, M., & Ando, T. (2016) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-16-14727-2016 · Cited by 69
Atmospheric CO2 response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability
Frölicher, T. L., Joos, F., Raible, C. C., & Sarmiento, J. L. (2013) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/gbc.20028 · Cited by 64
“…the total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (fossil fuel and cement, plus land emissions), has been used by authors of the Global Carbon Project to argue that the sink ef fi ciency of the land and ocean carbon sinks at absorbing excess CO 2 has decreased [ Canadell et al ., 2007; Le Quéré et al ., 2009].”
MethodTemporal variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 storage in the Irminger Sea
Pérez, F. F., Vázquez‐Rodríguez, M., Louarn, E., Padín, X. A., Mercier, H., & Rı́os, A. F. (2008) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-5-1669-2008 · Cited by 63
“The ocean is a CO2 sink that during the 1990s has removed 2.2±0.4 Pg C yr−1 from the atmosphere out of the total 8.0±0.5 Pg yr−1 of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) emitted to the atmosphere directly from human activities (Canadell et al., 2007).”
InfluentialAssessment of above- and belowground carbon pools in a semi-arid forest ecosystem of Delhi, India
Meena, A., Bidalia, A., Hanief, M., Dinakaran, J., & Rao, K. S. (2019) · Ecological Processes · doi:10.1186/s13717-019-0163-y · Cited by 63
Bergamaschi, B. A., Bernknopf, R. L., Clow, D. W., Dye, D. G., Faulkner, S. P., Forney, W. M., Gleason, R. A., Hawbaker, T. J., Liu, J., Liu, S., et al. (2010) · Scientific investigations report · doi:10.3133/sir20105233 · Cited by 63
High rates of organic carbon processing in the hyporheic zone of intermittent streams
Burrows, R. M., Rutlidge, H., Bond, N. R., Eberhard, S. M., Auhl, A., Andersen, M. S., Valdez, D. G., & Kennard, M. J. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-12957-5 · Cited by 62
Intercomparison of global terrestrial carbon fluxes estimated by MODIS and Earth system models
Hu, Q., Li, T., Deng, X., Wu, T., Zhai, P., Huang, D., Fan, X., Zhu, Y., Lin, Y., Xiao, X., et al. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152231 · Cited by 62
Suckling, C. C., Clark, M. S., Beveridge, C., Brunner, L., Hughes, A. D., Harper, E. M., Cook, E., Davies, A. J., & Peck, L. S. (2014) · Invertebrate Reproduction & Development · doi:10.1080/07924259.2013.875951 · Cited by 65
“As a consequence, oceanic surface waters have reduced by 0.1 pH units during the last 250 years and are forecasted to reduce by a further 0.3–0.5 units by the year 2100 (Houghton et al. 2001; Caldeira & Wickett 2003, 2005; Royal Society 2005; Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundInfluentialWhy are East Asian ecosystems important for carbon cycle research?
Fang, J. X., Tang, Y., & Son, Y. (2010) · Science China Life Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11427-010-4032-2 · Cited by 62
Yang, F., Deng, P., Wang, Q., Zhu, J., Yan, Y. P., Zhou, L., Qi, K., Liu, H., Park, H. S., & Xia, B. Y. (2020) · Journal of Materials Chemistry A · doi:10.1039/d0ta03565c · Cited by 62
Influence of monsoons on atmospheric CO2 spatial variability and ground-based monitoring over India
Tiwari, Y. K., Vellore, R. K., Kumar, K. R., van der Schoot, M., & Cho, C. (2014) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.05.045 · Cited by 60
The effect of nitrogen deposition on forest carbon sequestration: a model‐based analysis
Dezi, S., Medlyn, B. E., Tonon, G., & Magnani, F. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02102.x · Cited by 66
“In the global carbon (C) budget, the terrestrial biosphere is thought to be a significant C sink, sequestering on the order of 2.8 Pg C yr 1 (Field 2001; Myneni et al., 2001; Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundInfluentialSoil carbon development in rejuvenated Indian coal mine spoil
Tripathi, N., Singh, R. S., & Hills, C. D. (2016) · Ecological Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.ecoleng.2016.01.019 · Cited by 61
Global and Brazilian Carbon Response to El Niño Modoki 2011–2010
Bowman, K. W., Liu, J., Bloom, A. A., Parazoo, N. C., Lee, M., Jiang, Z., Menemenlis, D., Gierach, M. M., Collatz, G. J., Gurney, K. R., et al. (2017) · Earth and Space Science · doi:10.1002/2016ea000204 · Cited by 62
“While this trend in the airborne fraction has been remarkably stable, some studies have suggested the AF is changing while others dispute this conclusion [Canadell et al., 2007; Knorr , 2009; Le Quere et al., 2009; Gloor et al., 2010].”
ResultTerrestrial fluxes of carbon in GCP carbon budgets
Houghton, R. A. (2020) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15050 · Cited by 64
“2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866–18870; Raupach”
BackgroundSelf-citationBrikowski, T. H. (2008) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.02.020 · Cited by 61
Biehl, J. G., & Locke, P. (2017) · Duke University Press eBooks · doi:10.1215/9780822372455-002 · Cited by 60
Lamichaney, A., Tewari, K., Basu, P. S., Katiyar, P. K., & Singh, N. P. (2021) · Physiology and Molecular Biology of Plants · doi:10.1007/s12298-021-00928-0 · Cited by 60
Sustainable energy for the marine sector
Vergara, J. A., McKesson, C. B., & Walczak, M. (2012) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.026 · Cited by 60
Cotrufo, M. F., Alberti, G., Inglima, I., Marjanović, H., LeCain, D. R., Zaldei, A., Peressotti, A., & Miglietta, F. (2011) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-8-2729-2011 · Cited by 60
Malm, A. (2012) · Organization & Environment · doi:10.1177/1086026612449338 · Cited by 58
Climate change and plant pathogens: Understanding dynamics, risks and mitigation strategies
Kumar, D., & Mukhopadhyay, R. (2024) · Plant Pathology · doi:10.1111/ppa.14033 · Cited by 59
Ellis, E. E., Keil, R. G., Ingalls, A. E., Richey, J. E., & Alin, S. R. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jg001816 · Cited by 59
“Inland waters receive 2.7 Pg C/year [Battin et al., 2009; Tranvik et al., 2009], which is a flux nearly equal to the size of the terrestrial sink for anthropogenic C (2.8 Pg C/yr) [Canadell et al., 2007; Battin et al., 2009].”
BackgroundInfluentialDoherty, S. J., Bojinski, S., Henderson-Sellers, A., Noone, K. J., Goodrich, D. C., Bindoff, N. L., Church, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Karl, T. R., Kajfež-Bogataj, L., et al. (2008) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/2008bams2643.1 · Cited by 61
The European land and inland water CO 2 , CO, CH 4 and N 2 O balance between 2001 and 2005
Luyssaert, S., Abril, G., Andres, R. J., Bastviken, D., Bellassen, V., Bergamaschi, P., Bousquet, P., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Corazza, M., et al. (2012) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-9-3357-2012 · Cited by 58
“Globally, terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed about 30 % of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the period 2000–2007 (Canadell et al., 2007; Le Quéŕe et al., 2009).”
BackgroundSelf-citationPhotochemical Alterations of Natural and Anthropogenic Dissolved Organic Nitrogen in the York River
Mesfioui, R., Abdulla, H. A. N., & Hatcher, P. G. (2014) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es504095c · Cited by 60
Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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