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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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In the citing paper
“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
In the citing paper
“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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The role of large—scale BECCS in the pursuit of the 1.5°C target: an Earth system model perspective
Muri, H. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab324 · Cited by 56
“Anthropogenic land use change can have large impacts on the climate not only through changes to the carbon cycle (Canadell et al 2007, Bonan 2008), but also changes in biogeophysical processes and alterations to surface energy and moisture fluxes (Betts 2001, Bala et al 2007, Lawrence and Chase…”
BackgroundCarbon export is facilitated by sea urchins transforming kelp detritus
Filbee‐Dexter, K., Pedersen, M. F., Fredriksen, S., Norderhaug, K. M., Rinde, E., Kristiansen, T., Albretsen, J., & Wernberg, T. (2019) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-019-04571-1 · Cited by 50
The Paradox at the Heart of Modernity
York, R. (2010) · International Journal of Sociology · doi:10.2753/ijs0020-7659400201 · Cited by 49
Ecological applications of physically based remote sensing methods
Rautiainen, M., Heiskanen, J., Eklundh, L., Mõttus, M., Lukeš, P., & Stenberg, P. (2010) · Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1080/02827581.2010.497159 · Cited by 49
“The land sinks of carbon absorb close to one-third of anthropogenic emissions (Canadell et al., 2007); hence, monitoring these systems using the latest technical methods is crucial.”
BackgroundTang, J., Cheng, H., & Fang, C. (2017) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0186675 · Cited by 49
Mo, Y., Ullah, S., & Öztürk, İ. (2022) · Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja · doi:10.1080/1331677x.2022.2140302 · Cited by 62
“According to Canadell et al. (2007), the rising human activities are mainly responsible for increasing global average temperatures, which is the ultimate cause of environmental degradation.”
BackgroundSharma, R., Sharda, H., Dutta, A., Dahiya, A., Chaudhary, R., Singh, A., Rathi, K., Kumar, S., Sharma, A., Maken, S., et al. (2023) · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy · doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.03.179 · Cited by 49
RetractedDonor‐Acceptor Activation of Carbon Dioxide
Pérez‐Jiménez, M., Corona, H., de la Cruz‐Martínez, F., & Campos, J. (2023) · Chemistry - A European Journal · doi:10.1002/chem.202301428 · Cited by 50
Forest biotech and climate change
Fenning, T. M., Walter, C. A., & Gartland, K. M. A. (2008) · Nature Biotechnology · doi:10.1038/nbt0608-615 · Cited by 49
Cruz, J. L., Alves, A. A. C., LeCain, D. R., Ellis, D. D., & Morgan, J. A. (2013) · Plant and Soil · doi:10.1007/s11104-013-1869-8 · Cited by 49
“Canadell et al. 2007; Sun et al. 2009).”
Challenges in elevated CO2 experiments on forests
Calfapietra, C., Ainsworth, E. A., Beier, C., Angelis, P. D., Ellsworth, D. S., Godbold, D. L., Hendrey, G. R., Hickler, T., Hoosbeek, M. R., & Karnosky, D. F. (2009) · Trends in Plant Science · doi:10.1016/j.tplants.2009.11.001 · Cited by 49
Future impacts of nitrogen deposition and climate change scenarios on forest crown defoliation
Marco, A. D., Proietti, C., Cionni, I., Fischer, R., Screpanti, A., & Vitale, M. (2014) · Environmental Pollution · doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2014.07.027 · Cited by 49
Ghaley, B. B., Porter, J. R., & Sandhu, H. (2014) · International Journal of Biodiversity Science Ecosystems Services & Management · doi:10.1080/21513732.2014.926990 · Cited by 49
“SOC stock is affected, spatially and temporally, in an ecosystem due to climate, terrestrial vegetation, soil mineralogy, soil management and the interactions between these factors (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundVoelker, S. L. (2011) · Tree physiology/Tree physiology (Dordrecht) · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-1242-3_17 · Cited by 49
“Understanding the processes that govern terrestrial ecosystem productivity is critical to predicting future concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( Canadell et al. 2007 ).”
BackgroundError characterization of CO 2 vertical mixing in the atmospheric transport model WRF-VPRM
Kretschmer, R., Gerbig, C., Karstens, U., & Koch, F. T. (2012) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-12-2441-2012 · Cited by 49
“Oceans and terrestrial biosphere are slowing down this process by 20 absorbing about half of the anthropogenic carbon emissions (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundXu, X., Shi, Z., Chen, X., Lin, Y., Niu, S., Jiang, L., Luo, R., & Luo, Y. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13192 · Cited by 51
“This is supported by global C cycle models that predict increased terrestrial C uptake under warming by 2050 (Canadell et al., 2007; Sitch et al., 2008).”
BackgroundTermites promote resistance of decomposition to spatiotemporal variability in rainfall
Veldhuis, M. P., Laso, F., Olff, H., & Berg, M. P. (2016) · Ecology · doi:10.1002/ecy.1658 · Cited by 49
“…stability; temperature; termites. introduction Decomposition of dead organic matter is a key process in the recycling of carbon and nutrients in terrestrial ecosystems (Sayer 2006, Canadell et al. 2007), providing the primary input of nutrients for both plant and detritivore communities.”
BackgroundTree growth-climate relationships in a forest-plot network on Mediterranean mountains
Fyllas, N. M., Christopoulou, A. N., Galanidis, A., Michelaki, C. Z., Dimitrakopoulos, P. G., Fulé, P. Z., & Αριανούτσου, Μ. (2017) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.04.145 · Cited by 50
Supuran, C. T., & Capasso, C. (2021) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms22094324 · Cited by 49
“In the last twenty years, human CO2 emissions have been enormously accelerated, considering the overall rise in energy consummation, the greater use of coal to produce energy, increased consumption per capita, and population development [1].”
BackgroundPetryna, A. (2017) · Duke University Press eBooks · doi:10.1215/9780822372455-010 · Cited by 49
Söllinger, A., Séneca, J., Dahl, M. B., Motleleng, L. L., Prommer, J., Verbruggen, E., Sigurdsson, B. D., Janssens, I. A., Peñuelas, J., Urich, T., et al. (2022) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abm3230 · Cited by 49
Chen, L., Ren, C., Bao, G., Zhang, B., Wang, Z., Liu, M., Man, W., & Liu, J. (2022) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs14122743 · Cited by 48
Jiang, X., Li, X., Kong, Y., Deng, C., Li, X., Hu, Q. L., Yang, H., & He, C. (2022) · Small · doi:10.1002/smll.202204148 · Cited by 49
Patel, H. A., & Yavuz, C. T. (2015) · Faraday Discussions · doi:10.1039/c5fd00099h · Cited by 48
Eight years of carbon dioxide exchange above a mixed forest at Borden, Ontario
Teklemariam, T., Staebler, R. M., & Barr, A. (2009) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.07.011 · Cited by 48
Historical carbon emissions and uptake from the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon
Galford, G. L., Melillo, J. M., Kicklighter, D. W., Mustard, J. F., Cronin, T. W., Cerri, C. E. P., & Cerri, C. E. P. (2010) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/09-1957.1 · Cited by 48
“Our annual carbon emissions estimate for Mato Grosso is larger than the Brazilian government’s estimates (Ministry of Science and Technology 2006) for forest clearing in the Legal Amazon (117 Tg C/yr), but smaller than the corresponding estimates for land clearing in both forest and cerrado (167 Tg C/yr).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialMarkelz, R. J. C., LAI, L. X., VOSSELER, L. N., & Leakey, A. D. B. (2013) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.12205 · Cited by 49
“Atmospheric CO2 concentration ( [CO2] ) is increasing because of anthropogenic emissions of ∼10 Pg of carbon each year (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundIgnaciuk, A., Rice, M., Bogárdi, J. J., Canadell, J. G., Dhakal, S., Ingram, J. S. I., Leemans, R., & Rosenberg, M. W. (2012) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2011.12.003 · Cited by 48
“Examples of the second category are exploring the links between the kaya identity and anthropogenic emissions and carbon sinks [36,37], the role of climate and resource extraction from methane hydrates [38], human interactions and emissions from drained tropical peatlands [39], and the role of the southern ocean as a…”
BackgroundSelf-citationA comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentration GOSAT-based observations and model simulations
Lei, L., Guan, X., Zeng, Z., Zhang, B., Ru, F., & Bu, R. (2014) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-013-4807-y · Cited by 48
Oceanic eddy-induced modifications to air–sea heat and CO2 fluxes in the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence
Pezzi, L. P., de Souza, R. B., Santini, M. F., Miller, A. J., Carvalho, J. T., Parise, C. K., de Quadro, M. F. L., Rosa, E. B., Justino, F. B., Sutil, U. A., et al. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-89985-9 · Cited by 48
Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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