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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
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“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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Watham, T., Patel, N. R., Kushwaha, S. P. S., Dadhwal, V. K., & Kumar, A. (2017) · International Journal of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1080/01431161.2017.1333653 · Cited by 42
“Quantification of carbon exchange in terms of gross primary productivity (GPP) from terrestrial ecosystems holds immense significance in carbon cycle research and climate change mitigation (Canadell et al. 2007; Xiao et al. 2008; Beer et al. 2010).”
BackgroundHaley, J. A., Hampton, D., & Marder, E. E. (2018) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.41877 · Cited by 42
Jarvi, M. P., & Burton, A. J. (2020) · Plant and Soil · doi:10.1007/s11104-020-04540-1 · Cited by 42
Ocean carbon uptake under aggressive emission mitigation
Ridge, S., & McKinley, G. A. (2021) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-18-2711-2021 · Cited by 45
Jütterström, S., Andersson, H. C., Omstedt, A., & Malmaeus, M. (2014) · Marine Pollution Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.06.027 · Cited by 44
“The world’s oceans have, in total, gone from being a small source of CO2 to the atmosphere in preindustrial times (Sabine et al., 2004a) to become a sink with an uptake of 30–40% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Canadell et al., 2007; Sabine et al., 2004b; Zeebe et al., 2008).”
BackgroundZhang, X., Liu, N., Lü, H., & Zhu, L. (2022) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.1c07835 · Cited by 41
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural Soils: Sources and Mitigation Potential
Benbi, D. K. (2013) · Journal of Crop Improvement · doi:10.1080/15427528.2013.845054 · Cited by 41
“This corresponds to 34% of the total anthropogenic emissions (478 Gt C) between 1850 and 2005 (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundBiomimetic molecular water splitting catalysts for hydrogen generation
Joya, K. S., & de Groot, H. J. M. (2012) · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy · doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2012.01.139 · Cited by 41
“[8] Canadell JG, Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Field CB, Buitenhuis ET, Ciais P, et al.”
BackgroundA model study of the seasonal and long–term North Atlantic surface p CO 2 variability
Tjiputra, J. F., Olsen, A. S., Assmann, K., Pfeil, B., & Heinze, C. (2012) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-9-907-2012 · Cited by 41
“This is interesting as a previous study estimated that the surfacef CO2 around the NASPG domain has increased relatively faster (e.g., over the period 1990–2006) than in other regions of the North Atlantic (Corbìere et al., 2007; Schuster et al., 2009).”
BackgroundEssl, F., Erb, K., Glatzel, S., & Pauchard, A. (2017) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.486 · Cited by 42
Lee, H., Han, S., Ryoo, S., Lee, J.-S., & Lee, G. (2019) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-19-2149-2019 · Cited by 41
Carbon Emissions from Oil Palm Induced Forest and Peatland Conversion in Sabah and Sarawak, Malaysia
Jaafar, W. S. W. M., Said, N. F. S., Maulud, K. N. A., Uning, R., Latif, M. T., Kamarulzaman, A. M. M., Mohan, M., Pradhan, B., Saad, S. N. M., Broadbent, E. N., et al. (2020) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f11121285 · Cited by 45
Sierra, C. A., Loescher, H. W., Harmon, M. E., Richardson, A. D., Hollinger, D. Y., & Perakis, S. S. (2009) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/08-0073.1 · Cited by 41
A steep road to climate stabilization
Friedlingstein, P. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature06593 · Cited by 41
“Careful measurements of the airborne proportion of anthropogenic emissions (that is, the proportion that remains in the atmosphere) show a small increasing trend in the past 50 year”
BackgroundYuan, F., Yi, S., McGUIRE, A. D., Johnson, K. D., Liang, J., Harden, J. W., Kasischke, E. S., & Kurz, W. A. (2012) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/11-1957.1 · Cited by 40
“Efforts to assess the efficiency of terrestrial sinks have largely been conducted at the global scale (Canadell et al. 2007a, Le Quere et al. 2009), but it is important that Manuscript received 31 October 2011; revised 30 May 2012; accepted 31 May 2011.”
BackgroundInfluentialWu, C., Li, G., Yue, W., Lu, R., Lu, Z., & You, H. (2014) · Environmental Management · doi:10.1007/s00267-014-0406-8 · Cited by 40
“Land-use and land-cover change is second only to the burning of fossil fuels in terms of increasing the global concentrations of atmospheric GHGs (Hansen and DeFries 2004; Canadell et al. 2007; Gullison et al. 2007; Popp et al. 2012).”
BackgroundInfluentialSTATUS REVIEW OF THE PACIFIC WALRUS (Odobenus rosmarus divergens)
Garlich‐Miller, J. L., MacCracken, J. G., Snyder, J. A., Meehan, R. H., Myers, M. T., Wilder, J. M., Lance, E. W., & Matz, A. C. (2011) · Cited by 40
Cluster analysis of the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth
Li, W., Yang, G., Li, X., Sun, T., & Wang, J. (2019) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.220 · Cited by 40
Photosynthesis in Global-Scale Models
Friend, A. D., Geider, R. J., Behrenfeld, M. J., & Still, C. J. (2009) · Advances in photosynthesis and respiration · doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-9237-4_20 · Cited by 40
“In particular, it is currently not possible to unequivocally identify the process or processes responsible for the uptake of the major part of the ≈57% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions that does not remain in the atmosphere on an annual timescale, or explain why the efficiency of these natural carbon sinks appears to ha…”
BackgroundOn the major proposals for carbon emission reduction and some related issues
Ding, Z., Duan, X., Ge, Q., & Zhang, Z. (2010) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-010-0012-4 · Cited by 40
Response to Comments on "Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO 2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change"
Quéré, C. L., Rödenbeck, C., Buitenhuis, E. T., Conway, T. J., Langenfelds, R. L., Gomez, A. J., Labuschagne, C. J., Ramonet, M., Nakazawa, T., Metzl, N., et al. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1147315 · Cited by 40
Self-citationRoy, S., Wrzesinski, P. J., Pestov, D., Dantus, M. M., & Gord, J. R. (2010) · Journal of Raman Spectroscopy · doi:10.1002/jrs.2587 · Cited by 40
The Vulnerability of South African Estuaries to Climate Change: A Review and Synthesis
Niekerk, L. V., Lamberth, S. J., James, N. C., Taljaard, S., Adams, J. B., Theron, A., & Krug, M. (2022) · Diversity · doi:10.3390/d14090697 · Cited by 42
“Fossil fuel burning and anthropogenic land-use changes have caused the atmospheric CO 2 concentrations to rise from 280 ppm to about 400 ppm globally, of which the oceans have absorbed approximately 20–30% [4,13,103,104].”
BackgroundCrabbe, M. J. C. (2009) · Computational Biology and Chemistry · doi:10.1016/j.compbiolchem.2009.09.004 · Cited by 39
Improving representation of leaf respiration in large‐scale predictive climate–vegetation models
Atkin, O. K., Meir, P., & Turnbull, M. H. (2014) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.12686 · Cited by 39
“Each year, R releases six to eight times more CO2 into the atmosphere than does the burning of fossil fuels (Canadell et al., 2007; Le Quere et al., 2009), with half being released by leaves (Atkin et al., 2007).”
BackgroundGhaley, B. B., Wösten, H., Olesen, J. E., Schelde, K., Baby, S., Karki, Y. K., Børgesen, C. D., Smith, P., Yeluripati, J. B., Ferrise, R., et al. (2018) · Frontiers in Plant Science · doi:10.3389/fpls.2018.01158 · Cited by 39
Sutton, T., Frank, T. M., Judkins, H., & Romero, I. C. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-12963-7_24 · Cited by 39
Yang, H., Xu, L., Chen, M., Lv, C., Cui, Y., Wen, X., Wu, C., Yang, B., Miao, Z., Hu, X., et al. (2020) · Microporous and Mesoporous Materials · doi:10.1016/j.micromeso.2020.110250 · Cited by 39
Fekete, I., Berki, I., Lajtha, K., Trumbore, S. E., Francioso, O., Gioacchini, P., Montecchio, D., Várbíró, G., Béni, Á., Makádi, M., et al. (2020) · Biogeochemistry · doi:10.1007/s10533-020-00728-w · Cited by 42
Garcia‐Tigreros, F., Leonte, M., Ruppel, C. D., Ruiz‐Angulo, A., Joung, D., Young, B., & Kessler, J. D. (2020) · Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences · doi:10.1029/2019jg005621 · Cited by 39
“A signi fi cant fraction of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitted to the atmosphere since the preindustrial Holocene has been taken up by the oceans, leading to higher surface water CO 2 levels (Broecker et al., 1979; Canadell et al., 2007; Doney et al., 2009; Quay et al., 1992).”
BackgroundMorpho-anatomical, Physiological, Biochemical and Molecular Responses of Plants to Air Pollution
Husen, A. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-65912-7_9 · Cited by 39
Intraseasonal variability of terrestrial biospheric CO2 fluxes over India during summer monsoons.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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