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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
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“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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Vaughan, N. E., & Lenton, T. M. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0027-7 · Cited by 297
Soils and food sufficiency. A review
Lal, R. (2008) · Agronomy for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1051/agro:2008044 · Cited by 241
“The land-based C sink may be decreasing (Canadell et al., 2007), probably due to soil/ecosystem degradation.”
BackgroundThe land use–climate change–energy nexus
Dale, V. H., Efroymson, R. A., & Kline, K. L. (2011) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-011-9606-2 · Cited by 242
“Furthermore, the range of CO2 releases caused by land-use change that is commonly used in current modeling was ‘‘assigned’’ rather than calculated and remains the most uncertain of the components of the global carbon budget (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundEmbodied HANPP: Mapping the spatial disconnect between global biomass production and consumption
Erb, K., Krausmann, F., Lucht, W., & Haberl, H. (2009) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.06.025 · Cited by 232
“This seemingly small flow, however, is associatedwith upstreamflowsof embodiedHANPPof 3.0 PgC/year or one fifth of total global HANPP.”
BackgroundInfluentialDirect climate effects of perennial bioenergy crops in the United States
Georgescu, M., Lobell, D. B., & Field, C. B. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1008779108 · Cited by 235
Self-citationGlobal potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation
Canadell, J. G., & Schulze, E. (2014) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms6282 · Cited by 244
“The land-use change (LUC) box shows the two gross fluxes: (1) emissions to the atmosphere from deforestation and (2) removal from the atmosphere by regrowth and reforestation/afforestation), which make the net flux to the atmosphere (1þ 2)13.”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationIs the northern high-latitude land-based CO2sink weakening?
Hayes, D. J., McGuire, A. D., Kicklighter, D. W., Gurney, K. R., Burnside, T. J., & Melillo, J. M. (2011) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2010gb003813 · Cited by 227
Satellite Salinity Observing System: Recent Discoveries and the Way Forward
Vinogradova, N. T., Lee, T., Boutin, J., Drushka, K., Fournier, S., Sabia, R., Stammer, D. B., Bayler, E. J., Reul, N., Gordon, A. L., et al. (2019) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00243 · Cited by 226
Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review
Anwar, M. R., Liu, D. L., Macadam, I., & Kelly, G. (2012) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0780-1 · Cited by 243
“Future emissions will be influenced by the evolution of the global population, socioeconomic development, and technological advances (Canadell et al. 2007; Le Quere et al. 2009).”
BackgroundClimate change mitigation strategies in carbon-intensive firms
Čadež, S., & Czerny, A. (2015) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.07.099 · Cited by 222
Characterizing 3D vegetation structure from space: Mission requirements
Hall, F. G., Bergen, K. M., Blair, J. B., Dubayah, R., Houghton, R. A., HURTT, G. C., Kellndorfer, J., Lefsky, M. A., Ranson, J., Saatchi, S. S., et al. (2011) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2011.01.024 · Cited by 226
“, 2003); thus, the precise causes of their annua swings in strength, on occasion as much as 100% (Canadell et al., 2007) are unknown.”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationPhysiological and isotopic responses of scleractinian corals to ocean acidification
Krief, S., Hendy, E., Fine, M., Yam, R., Meibom, A., Foster, G. L., & Shemesh, A. (2010) · Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta · doi:10.1016/j.gca.2010.05.023 · Cited by 221
Chemical and biological impacts of ocean acidification along the west coast of North America
Feely, R. A., Alin, S. R., Carter, B. R., Bednaršek, N., Hales, B., Chan, F., Hill, T. M., Gaylord, B., Sanford, E., Byrne, R. H., et al. (2016) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.043 · Cited by 228
Genomic basis for stimulated respiration by plants growing under elevated carbon dioxide
Leakey, A. D. B., Xu, F., Gillespie, K. M., McGrath, J. M., Ainsworth, E. A., & Ort, D. R. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0810955106 · Cited by 210
“Carbon emission to the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning, cement production and land use change has risen to 10 PgCy 1 (1).”
BackgroundRuiz‐Vera, U. M., Siebers, M. H., Gray, S. B., Drag, D. W., Rosenthal, D. M., Kimball, B. A., Ort, D. R., & Bernacchi, C. J. (2013) · PLANT PHYSIOLOGY · doi:10.1104/pp.112.211938 · Cited by 219
“The global atmospheric concentration of CO2 ([CO2]) is predicted to rise from current concentrations of approximately 390 mmol mol21 to between 730 and 1,020 mmol mol21 by 2100 (Canadell et al., 2007; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007).”
BackgroundAzam, M., Khan, A. Q., Abdullah, H., & Qureshi, M. E. (2015) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-015-5817-4 · Cited by 210
“Due to which greenhouse gas emission upsurges, where mostly CO2 emissions do play a critical part in the expansion of global warming as well as ozone exhaustion, the principal contributors to the human-induced heating are CO2 emissions (Canadell et al. 2007; Friedlingstein et al. 2010; Le Quere et al. 2012).”
BackgroundDynamic disequilibrium of the terrestrial carbon cycle under global change
Luo, Y., & Weng, E. (2010) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2010.11.003 · Cited by 215
Impact of climate change and variability on the global oceanic sink of CO 2
Quéré, C. L., Takahashi, T., Buitenhuis, E. T., Rödenbeck, C., & Sutherland, S. C. (2010) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2009gb003599 · Cited by 207
Self-citationDecadal changes in the aragonite and calcite saturation state of the Pacific Ocean
Feely, R. A., Sabine, C. L., Byrne, R. H., Millero, F. J., Dickson, A. G., Wanninkhof, R. H., Murata, A. M., Miller, L. A., & Greeley, D. (2012) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2011gb004157 · Cited by 216
“…CO2, currently absorbing 26% of the combined carbon released from deforestation and fossil fuel combustion up to the present and could absorb as much as 90% of the excess CO2 over the next several millennia [Archer et al., 1998; Canadell et al., 2007; Le Quéré et al., 2009; Sabine et al., 2011].”
BackgroundKotowska, M. M., Leuschner, C., Triadiati, T., Meriem, S., & Hertel, D. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12979 · Cited by 214
“It contributes presumably 12–15% of the annual global carbon emissions (Canadell et al., 2007; Van der Werf et al., 2009), and deforestation is also affecting the future potential of forests to remove additional carbon from the atmosphere (Saatchi et al., 2011).”
BackgroundUrgent preservation of boreal carbon stocks and biodiversity
Bradshaw, C. J. A., Warkentin, I. G., & Sodhi, N. S. (2009) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.03.019 · Cited by 204
Zhang, Y., Zhao, Z., Fu, B., Ma, R., Yang, Y., Lü, Y., & Wu, X. (2022) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115158 · Cited by 203
The global loss of net primary production resulting from human-induced soil degradation in drylands
Zika, M., & Erb, K. (2009) · Ecological Economics · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.06.014 · Cited by 213
The decomposition of fine and coarse roots: their global patterns and controlling factors
Zhang, X., & Wang, W. (2015) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep09940 · Cited by 202
Practical Modeling Approaches for Geological Storage of Carbon Dioxide
Celia, M. A., & Nordbotten, J. M. (2009) · Ground Water · doi:10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00590.x · Cited by 199
“…with time; in 2006, about 8.4 billion metric tonnes of carbon (1 billion metric tonnes = 1 gigatonne [Gt] = 1015 g) were emitted to the atmosphere (Canadell et al. 2007), and under many “business as usual” scenarios this rate is projected to double over the next 50 years (Pacala and Socolow 2004).”
MethodInfluentialTwelve testable hypotheses on the geobiology of weathering
Brantley, S. L., Megonigal, J. P., Scatena, F. N., Balogh‐Brunstad, Z., Barnes, R. T., Bruns, M. A., Cappellen, P. V., Dontsova, K. M., Hartnett, H. E., Hartshorn, A. S., et al. (2011) · Geobiology · doi:10.1111/j.1472-4669.2010.00264.x · Cited by 202
“Although climate change may not have been the biggest driver to date in determining changing erosion patterns, this hypothesis probes whether ongoing changes in temperature and precipitation (Canadell et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007) will be more or less important to CZ fluxes than changes in land use and cover.”
BackgroundInfluentialA quantitative approach to analyze carbon emissions of CNC-based machining systems
Li, C., Tang, Y. G., Cui, L., & Li, P. (2013) · Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing · doi:10.1007/s10845-013-0812-4 · Cited by 197
The ocean carbon sink – impacts, vulnerabilities and challenges
Heinze, C., Meyer, S., Goris, N., Anderson, L. G., Steinfeldt, R., Chang, N., Quéré, C. L., & Bakker, D. C. E. (2015) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-6-327-2015 · Cited by 231
“The interannual variability of land–atmosphere carbon fluxes appears to be higher25 than the respective variations for ocean–atmosphere fluxes when computing the land carbon sink as the residual between oceanic uptake and atmospheric CO2 retention (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundTrends and regional distributions of land and ocean carbon sinks
Sarmiento, J. L., Gloor, M. U., Gruber, N., Beaulieu, C., Jacobson, A. R., Fletcher, S. E. M., Pacala, S. W., & Rodgers, K. B. (2010) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-7-2351-2010 · Cited by 197
“6a shows, the land use source LU as presented in Houghton (2007) and Canadell et al. (2007) has, if anything, increased slightly in time, which implies that the increase in the absolute magnitude of the net land carbon sink NLS must be due primarily to an increase in the absolute magnitude of the…”
BackgroundResultInventory-based estimates of forest biomass carbon stocks in China: A comparison of three methods
Guo, Z., Fang, J., Pan, Y., & Birdsey, R. A. (2009) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.047 · Cited by 196
“Therefore, forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle (Dixon et al., 1994; Goodale et al., 2002; Houghton, 2003, 2005; Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundHutyra, L. R., Duren, R., Gurney, K. R., Grimm, N. B., Kort, E. A., Larson, E. K., & Shrestha, G. (2014) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1002/2014ef000255 · Cited by 196
“) on land-atmosphere exchange processes remain poorly understood despite decades of study on specific aspects of urbanization [Pouyat et al., 2006; Canadell et al., 2007; Churkina et al., 2010; Hutyra et al., 2011a; Pickett et al., 2011].”
BackgroundSoil carbon management and climate change
Lal, R. (2013) · Carbon Management · doi:10.4155/cmt.13.31 · Cited by 214
Moras, C. A., Bach, L. T., Cyronak, T. J., Joannes‐Boyau, R., & Schulz, K. G. (2022) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-19-3537-2022 · Cited by 217
Resource use and resource efficiency in the Asia–Pacific region
Schandl, H., & West, J. (2010) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.06.003 · Cited by 192
Lin, I. ‐. (2011) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jc007626 · Cited by 188
“of 45 Pg [Falkowski et al., 1998; Manning and Keeling, 2006; Canadell et al., 2007].”
BackgroundLindsay, K., Bonan, G. B., Doney, S. C., Hoffman, F. M., Lawrence, D. M., Long, M. C., Mahowald, N. M., Moore, J. K., Randerson, J. T., & THORNTON, P. E. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00565.1 · Cited by 193
Trade and technological innovation: The catalysts for climate change and way forward for COP21
Su, C., Naqvi, B., Shao, X., Li, J., & Jiao, Z. (2020) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110774 · Cited by 188
Modelling climate change impacts on the flood pulse in the Lower Mekong floodplains
Västilä, K., Kummu, M., Sangmanee, C., & Chinvanno, S. (2010) · Journal of Water and Climate Change · doi:10.2166/wcc.2010.008 · Cited by 186
“This study was based on the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which seems a rather suitable choice considering the recent development in greenhouse gas emissions (Canadell et al. 2007).”
MethodChapter 1 Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change
Reid, P. C., Fischer, A. C., Lewis‐Brown, E., Meredith, M. P., Sparrow, M., Andersson, A. J., Antia, A., Bates, N. R., Bathmann, U., Beaugrand, G., et al. (2009) · Advances in marine biology · doi:10.1016/s0065-2881(09)56001-4 · Cited by 213
“However, global emissions are already above (Canadell et al., 2007; Raupach et al., 2007) the highest of these scenarios and well above stabilisation scenarios of twice pre-industrial values.”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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