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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
In the citing paper
“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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On the mechanism of CO2 electro-cycloaddition to propylene oxides
Gallardo‐Fuentes, S., Contreras, R. R., Isaacs, M. A., Honores, J. S., Quezada, D., Landaeta, E., & Ormazábal‐Toledo, R. (2016) · Journal of CO2 Utilization · doi:10.1016/j.jcou.2016.06.007 · Cited by 35
Honores, J. S., Quezada, D., García, M., Calfumán, K., Muena, J. P., Aguirre, M. J., Arévalo, M. C., & Isaacs, M. A. (2017) · Green Chemistry · doi:10.1039/c6gc02599d · Cited by 34
Keeping warming within the 2°C limit after Copenhagen
Macintosh, A. (2010) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.01.034 · Cited by 33
Hall, F. G., Hilker, T., & Coops, N. C. (2012) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2012.02.007 · Cited by 33
Zhang, Q., Pitman, A. J., Wang, Y., Dai, Y., & Lawrence, P. (2013) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-4-333-2013 · Cited by 33
“If the CO2 emission from LULCC was 97 Pg C over the same period, the accumulated land carbon uptake is calculated as 76 Pg C for the nutrient-limiting simulation, which is 21 Pg C less than the estimated land carbon uptake from 1960 to 2005 by Canadell et al. (2007).”
BackgroundMethodCoasts: Complex changes affecting the Northwest's diverse shorelines
Reeder, W. S., Ruggiero, P., Shafer, S. L., Snover, A. K., Houston, L. L., Glick, P., Newton, J. A., & Capalbo, S. M. (2013) · Cited by 33
CO2 Sequestration by Bile Salt Aqueous Solutions and Formation of Supramolecular Hydrogels
Zhang, M., Ma, Z., Wang, K., & Zhu, X. X. (2019) · ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering · doi:10.1021/acssuschemeng.8b05112 · Cited by 32
Hu, G., Zhao, L., Wu, X., Ren, L., Wu, T., Su, Y., & Hao, J. (2019) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-019-02888-8 · Cited by 33
“2005) and has been shown to play a critical role in ecosystems, hydrological processes, and energy balance (Bond-Lamberty and Thomson 2010; Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundExcited-State Triplet Equilibria in a Series of Re(I)-Naphthalimide Bichromophores
Yarnell, J. E., Wells, K. A., Palmer, J. R., Breaux, J. M., & Castellano, F. N. (2019) · The Journal of Physical Chemistry B · doi:10.1021/acs.jpcb.9b05688 · Cited by 33
Rank dynamics and club convergence of sustainable development for countries around the world
Sueyoshi, T., & Wang, D. D. (2019) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119480 · Cited by 33
Patel, N. R., Pokhariyal, S., Chauhan, P., & Dadhwal, V. K. (2021) · International Journal of Biometeorology · doi:10.1007/s00484-021-02088-y · Cited by 33
Osborne, B. B., Roybal, C. M., Reibold, R. H., Collier, C. D., Geiger, E. L., Phillips, M. L., Weintraub, M. N., & Reed, S. C. (2022) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.13896 · Cited by 36
“…weather fluctuations in addition to concurrent, anthropogenic- driven changes in climate and other global biogeochemical cycles, including substantial alterations to the C (Canadell et al., 2007; Schimel, 1995) and P cycles (Mahowald et al., 2008; Ringeval et al., 2014), through space and time.”
BackgroundUncovering the CO2 Capture Mechanism of NaNO3-Promoted MgO by 18O Isotope Labeling
Landuyt, A., Kumar, P. V., Yuwono, J. A., Bork, A. H., Donat, F., Abdala, P. M., & Müller, C. R. (2022) · JACS Au · doi:10.1021/jacsau.2c00461 · Cited by 33
Terrestrial biological carbon sequestration: Science for enhancement and implementation
Post, W. M., Amonette, J. E., Birdsey, R. A., Garten, C. T., Izaurralde, R. C., Jardine, P. M., JASTROW, J. D., Lal, R., Marland, G., McCarl, B. A., et al. (2009) · Geophysical monograph · doi:10.1029/2008gm000753 · Cited by 33
“There are, however, indications that this fraction may be decreasing because natural sinks may not be able to keep pace with the increase in fossil fuel emissions due to ocean acidification and as some portions of the terrestrial biosphere reach saturation [Canadell et al., 2007].”
BackgroundSelf-citationWyckoff, P. H., & Bowers, R. (2009) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01602.x · Cited by 33
“Since 2000, the rate of increases for atmospheric CO2 has accelerated (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundPold, G., & DeAngelis, K. M. (2013) · Diversity · doi:10.3390/d5020409 · Cited by 37
“A more complete understanding of how global warming will affect carbon-cycle feedbacks to the climate system is central to model projections of future climate [5].”
BackgroundKale, M. P., Ravan, S. A., Roy, P., & Singh, S. (2009) · Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing · doi:10.1007/s12524-009-0035-5 · Cited by 33
Hoosbeek, M. R., Lukáč, M., Velthorst, E. J., Smith, A. R., & Godbold, D. L. (2011) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-8-353-2011 · Cited by 33
“In a scrub-oak ecosystem with higher biomass production under elevated [CO2], Carney et al. (2007) observed a decline of soil C due to relative higher abundances of fungi and higher activities of phenol oxidase which is responsible for the degradation of recalcitrant SOM such as lignin.”
Observed trends in Earth System behavior
Steffen, W. (2010) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.36 · Cited by 33
Deforestation‐induced reduction in rainfall
Kumagai, T., Kanamori, H., & Yasunari, T. (2013) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.10060 · Cited by 33
“Southeast Asian tropical forests have the highest relative deforestation rate in the world (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundThe anaesthetist and the environment
Sneyd, J. R., Montgomery, H., & Pencheon, D. C. (2010) · Anaesthesia · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2044.2010.06332.x · Cited by 33
Progress and Hotspots of Research on Land-Use Carbon Emissions: A Global Perspective
Liu, M., Chen, Y., Chen, K., & Chen, Y. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15097245 · Cited by 33
Decomposition and Ecosystem Carbon Budgets
Chapin, F. S., Matson, P. A., & Vitousek, P. M. (2011) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-9504-9_7 · Cited by 37
Carbon and water exchange of the world's tallest angiosperm forest
Kilinc, M., Beringer, J., Hutley, L. B., TAPPER, N. J., & McGuire, D. (2013) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.07.003 · Cited by 32
The Atmosphere as a Global Commons - Challenges for International Cooperation and Governance
Edenhofer, O., Flachsland, C., & Jakob, M. (2013) · OPUS 4 (Zuse Institute Berlin) · Cited by 31
Chen, Y., Li, X., Liu, X., & Ai, B. (2013) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.08.002 · Cited by 32
“It is estimated that terrestrial eco-systems have absorbed about 25% of the carbon emissions caused by human activities (Canadell et al., 2007).”
Stoy, P. C., Williams, M., Spadavecchia, L., Bell, R. A., Prieto-Blanco, A., Evans, J. G., & van Wijk, M. T. (2009) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-009-9243-7 · Cited by 32
An analytical model for estimating soil temperature profiles on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China
Hu, G., Zhao, L., Wu, X., Ren, L., Wu, T., Xie, C., Qiao, Y., Shi, J., & Cheng, G. (2015) · Journal of Arid Land · doi:10.1007/s40333-015-0058-4 · Cited by 32
Rodgers, K. B., Schlunegger, S., Slater, R. D., Ishii, M., Frölicher, T. L., Toyama, K., Plancherel, Y., Aumont, O., & Fassbender, A. J. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl089275 · Cited by 33
“This de fi nition differs from that typically used for AF (e.g., Canadell et al., 2007), where annual budgets are considered (annual accumulated fraction of CO 2 in the atmosphere versus annual carbon emissions).”
MethodInfluentialConversion of plant materials into hydroxymethylfurfural using ionic liquids
Yi, Y.-B., Lee, J.-W., & Chung, C. (2015) · Environmental Chemistry Letters · doi:10.1007/s10311-015-0503-9 · Cited by 32
“These emissions significantly contribute to global warming (Canadell et al. 2007), and thus the chemical manufacture from petroleum-based feedstocks is considered as one of the major contributors to global climate change.”
BackgroundDoes terrestrial drought explain global CO 2 flux anomalies induced by El Niño?
Schwalm, C. R., Williams, C. A., Schaefer, K. M., Baker, I., Collatz, G. J., & Rödenbeck, C. (2011) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-8-2493-2011 · Cited by 33
Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China
Leng, G., Tang, Q., Huang, M., Hong, Y. E., & Ruby, L. L. (2014) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-014-4987-0 · Cited by 32
Climate effects on atmospheric carbon dioxide over the last century
Rafelski, L. E., Piper, S. C., & Keeling, R. F. (2009) · Tellus B · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2009.00439.x · Cited by 32
“Several studies have called attention to the possibility that recent high growth rate in CO2 may be partly due to decreasing efficiency of CO2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007; Le Quéré et al., 2007).”
BackgroundShutler, J. D., Grant, M., Miller, P. I., Rushton, E., & Anderson, K. (2010) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2009.12.024 · Cited by 32
Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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