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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
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“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty
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“It has been widely observed that the SRES scenarios, originally constructed in the mid-1990s, underestimated emissions trends of the last 10 to 15 years and are well-below observed emissions today (Canadell et al. 2007; Pielke et al. 2008). As can be seen from Fig. 7, the “likely”,(7) ranges given by the IPCC AR4 are…”
BackgroundMethodBiogeochemical response of tropical coastal systems to present and past environmental change
Jennerjahn, T. C. (2012) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2012.04.005 · Cited by 115
Bellerby, R. G. J., Schulz, K. G., Riebesell, U., Neill, C. C., Nondal, G., Heegaard, E., Johannessen, T., & Brown, K. R. (2008) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-5-1517-2008 · Cited by 113
Managing for change: wetland transitions under sea-level rise and outcomes for threatened species
Traill, L. W., Perhans, K., Lovelock, C. E., Prohaska, A., McFallan, S., Rhodes, J. R., & Wilson, K. A. (2011) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00807.x · Cited by 111
“We chose the A1FI scenario to represent a plausible outcome, given that emissions continue to increase (Canadell et al., 2007).”
MethodHistorical land use change and associated carbon emissions in Brazil from 1940 to 1995
Leite, C. C., Costa, M. H., Soares-Filho, B. S., & Hissa, L. D. B. V. (2012) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2011gb004133 · Cited by 111
“[5] Estimates of global carbon emissions due to land use change vary enormously, with estimates for emissions in the 1990s ranging from +0.5 to +3.0 Pg-C yr 1 [Houghton, 2003], although recent estimates point to around 1.5 Pg-C yr 1 [Canadell et al., 2007; Le Quéré et al., 2009].”
BackgroundInfluentialOta, T., Ogawa, M., Shimizu, K., Kajisa, T., Mizoue, N., Yoshida, S., Takao, G., Hirata, Y., Furuya, N., Sano, T., et al. (2015) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f6113882 · Cited by 110
“As a result, carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in tropical forests are a major issue in the global carbon budget [5–8].”
BackgroundCarbon stocks of trees killed by bark beetles and wildfire in the western United States
Hicke, J. A., Meddens, A. J. H., Allen, C. D., & Kolden, C. A. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035032 · Cited by 111
“Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. between the land and atmosphere (Goodale et al 2002, Canadell et al 2007, Pan et al 2011).”
BackgroundCoral reef metabolism and carbon chemistry dynamics of a coral reef flat
Albright, R., Benthuysen, J. A., Cantin, N. E., Caldeira, K., & Anthony, K. R. N. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl063488 · Cited by 112
“Approximately 25% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are absorbed by the surface oceans causing measurable shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry [Canadell et al., 2007; Sabine et al., 2011].”
BackgroundAssessing the impacts of droughts on net primary productivity in China
Pei, F., Li, X., Liu, X., & Lao, C. (2012) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.031 · Cited by 110
“However, Recent studies argued that the northern terrestrial ecosystem takes up less carbon than thought before (Stephens et al., 2007), and that the carbon sink is weakening (Fung et al., 2005; Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundModified PROMETHEE approach for assessing energy technologies
Oberschmidt, J., Geldermann, J., Ludwig, J., & Schmehl, M. (2010) · International Journal of Energy Sector Management · doi:10.1108/17506221011058696 · Cited by 109
“Apart from economic considerations, it has also become increasingly obvious that the environmental impacts of electricity and heat supply cannot be ignored (Canadell et al., 2007; Smil, 2003).”
BackgroundChen, X., Huang, Y., Nie, C., Zhang, S., Wang, G., Chen, S., & Chen, Z. (2022) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-022-01520-1 · Cited by 109
Militarization and Energy Consumption
Clark, B., Jorgenson, A. K., & Kentor, J. (2010) · International Journal of Sociology · doi:10.2753/ijs0020-7659400202 · Cited by 63
Modeling vegetation and land use in models of the Earth System
Levis, S. (2010) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.83 · Cited by 110
Organic–Inorganic Hybrid Nanomaterials for Electrocatalytic CO 2 Reduction
Yang, C., Li, S., Zhang, Z., Wang, H., Liu, H., Jiao, F., Guo, Z., Zhang, X., & Hu, W. (2020) · Small · doi:10.1002/smll.202001847 · Cited by 109
International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme and Earth system science: Three decades of co-evolution
Seitzinger, S. P., Gaffney, O., Brasseur, G. P., Broadgate, W. J., Ciais, P., Claussen, M. A., Erisman, J. W., Kiefer, T., Lancelot, C., Monks, P. S., et al. (2015) · Anthropocene · doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2016.01.001 · Cited by 110
“The Global Carbon Project (GCP) released their first global carbon budget in 2007 (Canadell et al., 2007a,b) with annual updates since then of new advances in understanding and constraining the human perturbation of the carbon cycle (Le Quéré et al., 2009, 2015).”
BackgroundSelf-citationThe carbon sequestration potential of tree crop plantations
Kongsager, R., Napier, J., & Mertz, O. (2012) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-012-9417-z · Cited by 107
“2007), corresponding to more than forty times total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuels (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundInfluence of stand age on the magnitude and seasonality of carbon fluxes in Canadian forests
Coursolle, C., Margolis, H. A., Giasson, M., Bernier, P. Y., Amiro, B. D., Arain, M. A., Barr, A., Black, T. A., Goulden, M. L., McCaughey, J. H., et al. (2012) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.06.011 · Cited by 116
Rosales, J. (2008) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01091.x · Cited by 106
Detecting regional anthropogenic trends in ocean acidification against natural variability
Friedrich, T., Timmermann, A., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Bates, N. R., Chikamoto, M. O., Church, M. J., Dore, J. E., Gledhill, D. K., González‐Dávila, M., Heinemann, M., et al. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1372 · Cited by 117
Ma, T., Fan, Q., Tao, H., Han, Z., Jia, M., Gao, Y., Ma, W., & Sun, Z. (2017) · Nanotechnology · doi:10.1088/1361-6528/aa8f6f · Cited by 110
Large-scale carbon sequestration in post-agrogenic ecosystems in Russia and Kazakhstan
Kurganova, I. N., de Gerenyu, V. О. L., & Kuzyakov, Y. V. (2015) · CATENA · doi:10.1016/j.catena.2015.06.002 · Cited by 107
“These models are typical to calculate annual CO2 emissions and C accumulations at various scales — from the regional level to national or global (Canadell et al., 2007; Shvidenko and Nilsson, 2003, 2011).”
Seasonal Variations of Carbon Dioxide, Water Vapor and Energy Fluxes in Tropical Indian Mangroves
Rodda, S. R., Thumaty, K. C., Jha, C. S., & Dadhwal, V. K. (2016) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f7020035 · Cited by 104
Cabon, A., Mouillot, F., Lempereur, M., Ourcival, J., Simioni, G., & Limousin, J. (2017) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2017.11.030 · Cited by 104
Resource‐ratio theory predicts mycorrhizal control of litter decomposition
Smith, G. R., & Wan, J. (2019) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15884 · Cited by 101
“Soil holds more carbon than all plants and the atmosphere together (Batjes, 1996) and is a major component of the land carbon sink, which absorbs almost a third of our annual CO2 emissions (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundDukes, J. S., Chiariello, N. R., Loarie, S. R., & Field, C. B. (2011) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/11-0111.1 · Cited by 104
“Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are increasing by ;2 ppm/yr around the globe (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundSelf-citationDar, J. A., & Sundarapandian, S. (2015) · Environmental Monitoring and Assessment · doi:10.1007/s10661-015-4299-7 · Cited by 110
“Forest biomass carbon is significantly affected by land use, timber harvesting, climate change, and other natural as well as human-induced disturbances (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundEvaluation of various observing systems for the global monitoring of CO 2 surface fluxes
Hungershoefer, K., Bréon, F., Peylin, P., Chevallier, F., Rayner, P. J., Klonecki, A., Houweling, S., & Marshall, J. (2010) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-10-10503-2010 · Cited by 104
“…fraction of CO 2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere has recently increased, partly because of a decline in the efficiency of the natural sinks (Canadell et al., 2007; Le Qu´er´e et al., 2009), although there are still significant uncertainties both on the fossil fuel emissions and the ocean…”
Zepp, R. G., Erickson, D. J., PAUL, N. D., & Sulzberger, B. (2011) · Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences · doi:10.1039/c0pp90037k · Cited by 108
Matthews, S. N., Iverson, L. R., Prasad, A., Peterson, D. L., & Rodewald, P. G. (2011) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.06.047 · Cited by 103
“We selected our highest emission scenario (HADhi) for demonstration, as recent data suggest that emissions are tracking at higher levels than projected even in the most severe A1fi scenario used in the HADhi model (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundMethodThe SMAP Level 4 Carbon Product for Monitoring Ecosystem Land–Atmosphere CO 2 Exchange
Jones, L. A., Kimball, J. S., Reichle, R. H., Madani, N., Glassy, J., Ardizzone, J., Colliander, A., Cleverly, J., Desai, A. R., Eamus, D., et al. (2017) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/tgrs.2017.2729343 · Cited by 106
“The land and global ocean CO2 sinks provide a roughly 50% offset of anthropogenic atmospheric emissions with seasonal and interannual variability driven by land [1].”
BackgroundLiddicoat, S., Wiltshire, A., Jones, C. D., Arora, V., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Hajima, T., Lawrence, D., Pongratz, J., Schwinger, J., et al. (2021) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0991.1 · Cited by 61
“The airborne fraction is typically determined as a fraction of total anthropogenic emissions, from fossil fuel as well as land-use change (Canadell et al. 2007; Denman et al. 2007; Le Qu é r é et al. 2009; Raupach et al. 2008; Rayner et al. 2010; Bennedsen et al. 2019), though it has also been…”
BackgroundAhmad, A. R., Liu, Q., Nizami, S. M., Mannan, A., & Saeed, S. (2018) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.07.009 · Cited by 106
Two-dimensional semiconducting covalent organic frameworks for photocatalytic solar fuel production
Huang, W., Luo, W., & Li, Y. (2020) · Materials Today · doi:10.1016/j.mattod.2020.07.003 · Cited by 101
Greater carbon allocation to mycorrhizal fungi reduces tree nitrogen uptake in a boreal forest
Hasselquist, N. J., Metcalfe, D. B., Inselsbacher, E., Stangl, Z. R., Ram Oren, G., Näsholm, T., & Högberg, P. (2015) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/15-1222.1 · Cited by 100
The CO2 capture performance of a high-intensity vortex spray scrubber
Javed, K. H., Mahmud, T., & Purba, E. (2010) · Chemical Engineering Journal · doi:10.1016/j.cej.2010.03.038 · Cited by 100
Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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