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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
In the citing paper
“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
In the citing paper
“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationEcological Lessons from Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) Experiments
Norby, R. J., & Zak, D. R. (2011) · Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102209-144647 · Cited by 681
“…oceans, and C losses attributable to land-use change, the amount of C from fossil fuel releases that is not accounted for—the “missing sink”—is assumed to result from uptake (i.e., photosynthesis) by the terrestrial biosphere in excess of terrestrial respiration (Field 2001, Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundReconstruction of the history of anthropogenic CO2 concentrations in the ocean
Khatiwala, S., Primeau, F., & Hall, T. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08526 · Cited by 678
Carbon capture and storage using alkaline industrial wastes
Bobicki, E. R., Liu, Q., Xu, Z., & Zeng, H. (2012) · Progress in Energy and Combustion Science · doi:10.1016/j.pecs.2011.11.002 · Cited by 666
Friedlingstein, P., Houghton, R. A., Marland, G., Hackler, J. L., Boden, T. A., Conway, T. J., Canadell, J. G., Raupach, M., Ciais, P., & Quéré, C. L. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1022 · Cited by 664
Self-citationGougoulias, C., Clark, J. M., & Shaw, L. J. (2014) · Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture · doi:10.1002/jsfa.6577 · Cited by 692
“38 – 40 Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks are far from straightforward, complicated by direct and indirect effects and interactions with other factors 41 (also reviewed in Bardgett et al. 42 and Singh et al. 43 ).”
Folke, C., Jansson, Å., Rockström, J., Olsson, P., Carpenter, S. R., Chapin, F. S., Crépin, A., Daily, G. C., Danell, K., Ebbesson, J., et al. (2011) · AMBIO · doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0184-y · Cited by 723
“123 Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2011 www.kva.se/en past 150 years provided an immense ecosystem service to humanity by absorbing *50% of the global carbon dioxide emissions (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundFeely, R. A., Alin, S. R., Newton, J. A., Sabine, C. L., Warner, M. J., Devol, A. H., Krembs, C., & Maloy, C. F. (2010) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2010.05.004 · Cited by 657
“Over the same time interval, the surface oceans have absorbed more than 550 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or approximately 30% of the total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundRecent reversal in loss of global terrestrial biomass
Liu, Y., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., de Jeu, R., Canadell, J. G., McCabe, M. F., Evans, J. P., & Wang, G. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2581 · Cited by 627
Self-citationSoil warming, carbon–nitrogen interactions, and forest carbon budgets
Melillo, J. M., Butler, S. M., Johnson, J. E., Mohan, J. E., Steudler, P. A., Lux, H., Burrows, E. H., Bowles, F. P., Smith, R. M., Scott, L., et al. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1018189108 · Cited by 602
Wittig, V. E., Ainsworth, E. A., Naidu, S. L., Karnosky, D. F., & Long, S. P. (2008) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01774.x · Cited by 592
“Canadell et al. (2007) suggested that the observed strength of this sink might be declining.”
BackgroundImpact of CO 2 fertilization on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments
Donohue, R. J., Roderick, M. L., McVicar, T. R., & Farquhar, G. D. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50563 · Cited by 592
“While a land-based carbon sink has been observed [Ballantyne et al., 2012; Canadell et al., 2007] and satellites reveal long-term, global greening trends [Beck et al., 2011; Fensholt et al., 2012; Nemani et al., 2003], it has proven difficult to isolate the direct biochemical role of Ca in these…”
BackgroundTrivedi, P., Anderson, I. C., & Singh, B. K. (2013) · Trends in Microbiology · doi:10.1016/j.tim.2013.09.005 · Cited by 603
Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system
Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Zaehle, S., Tsigaridis, K., Menon, S., Bartlein, P. J., Feichter, J., Korhola, A. A., Kulmala, M., O’Donnell, D., et al. (2010) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo905 · Cited by 610
Lal, R. (2010) · BioScience · doi:10.1525/bio.2010.60.9.8 · Cited by 574
Kurz, W. A., Stinson, G., Rampley, G. J., Dymond, C. C., & Neilson, E. T. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0708133105 · Cited by 546
Lawrence, D. M., HURTT, G. C., Arneth, A., Brovkin, V. A., Calvin, K., Jones, A. D., JONES, C. D., Lawrence, P., de Noblet‐Ducoudré, N., Pongratz, J., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016 · Cited by 587
Contribution of Semi-Arid Forests to the Climate System
Rotenberg, E., & Yakir, D. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1179998 · Cited by 536
Walker, A. P., Beckerman, A. P., Gu, L., Kattge, J., Cernusak, L. A., Domingues, T. F., Scales, J. C., Wohlfahrt, G., Wullschleger, S. D., & Woodward, F. I. (2014) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.1173 · Cited by 537
“Photosynthesis is the proximal driver of the carbon cycle (Canadell et al. 2007; Cadule et al. 2010) and is thus a core driver of carbon flux and central to carbon cycle models (e.g., Woodward et al. 1995; Cox 2001; Sitch et al. 2003; Zaehle and Friend 2010; Bonan et al. 2011).”
BackgroundIncreased water-use efficiency during the 20th century did not translate into enhanced tree growth
Peñuelas, J., Canadell, J. G., & Ogaya, R. (2010) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00608.x · Cited by 539
“This finding is consistent and supported by many experimental studies (see reviews by Körner et al., 2007, and Oren et al., 2001; see also Canadell et al., 2007b; Norby et al., 2009).”
BackgroundResultSelf-citationHajjari, M., Tabatabaei, M., Aghbashlo, M., & Ghanavati, H. (2017) · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.rser.2017.01.034 · Cited by 515
Effects of biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling in the U nited S tates and C anada
Hicke, J. A., Allen, C. D., Desai, A. R., Dietze, M. C., Hall, R. J., Hogg, E. H., Kashian, D. M., MOORE, D. J. P., Raffa, K. F., Sturrock, R. N., et al. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02543.x · Cited by 497
“…reduced growth and reallocation of carbon, although repeated severe defoliation may cause tree mortality, resulting in similar modifications to C © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Global Change Biology, 18, 7–34 cycling as tree-killing bark beetles (Elkinton & Liebhold, 1990; Candau et al., 1998).”
BackgroundRaudsepp‐Hearne, C., Peterson, G., Tengö, M., Bennett, E. M., Holland, T. G., Benessaiah, K., MacDonald, G. K., & Pfeifer, L. (2010) · BioScience · doi:10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.4 · Cited by 525
Gibbs, H. K., Johnston, M., Foley, J. A., Holloway, T., Monfreda, C., Ramankutty, N., & Zaks, D. (2008) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034001 · Cited by 470
Response of Mediterranean coralline algae to ocean acidification and elevated temperature
MARTIN, S., & GATTUSO, J. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01874.x · Cited by 459
“3% yr 1 (Canadell et al., 2007) and is expected to reach more than 700 ppm by the end of this century considering the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario (Solomon et al.”
BackgroundInfluentialHigh Resolution Fossil Fuel Combustion CO2 Emission Fluxes for the United States
Gurney, K. R., Mendoza, D., Zhou, Y., Fischer, M. L., Miller, C. C., Geethakumar, S., & du Can, S. D. L. R. (2009) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/es900806c · Cited by 467
Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T. A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Houghton, R. A., Marland, G., Moriarty, R., et al. (2014) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-6-235-2014 · Cited by 450
Self-citationMarine ecosystems’ responses to climatic and anthropogenic forcings in the Mediterranean
de Madron, X. D., Guieu, C., Sempéré, R., Conan, P., Cossa, D., D’Ortenzio, F., Estournel, C., Gazeau, F., Rabouille, C., Stemmann, L., et al. (2011) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2011.02.003 · Cited by 478
“The atmosphere’s level of CO2, measured as the partial pressure (pCO2), rose from 280 latm before the start of the industrial era to 381 latm in 2006 (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundWarming alters the metabolic balance of ecosystems
Yvon‐Durocher, G., Jones, J. I., Trimmer, M., Woodward, G., & Montoya, J. M. (2010) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0038 · Cited by 461
Zheng, Y., Shen, R., Wang, Y., Li, X., Liu, S., Liang, S., Chen, J. M., Ju, W., Zhang, L., & Yuan, W. (2020) · Earth system science data · doi:10.5194/essd-12-2725-2020 · Cited by 448
Atkin, O. K., Bloomfield, K. J., Reich, P. B., Tjoelker, M. G., Asner, G. P., Bonal, D., Bönisch, G., Bradford, M., Cernusak, L. A., Cosio, E. G., et al. (2015) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.13253 · Cited by 442
“…release in darkness (R dark ) in TBMs and ESMs is crucial (King et al., 2006; Huntingford et al., 2013; Wythers et al., 2013), as plant respiration – roughly half of which comes from leaves (Atkin et al., 2007) – releases c. 60 Pg C yr À1 (Prentice et al., 2001; Canadell et al., 2007; IPCC, 2013).”
BackgroundKeenan, T. F., & Williams, C. A. (2018) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030204 · Cited by 468
The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options
Lenton, T. M., & Vaughan, N. E. (2009) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-9-5539-2009 · Cited by 415
“The realisation that existing mitigation efforts are proving wholly ineffectual at the global scale, as evidenced by post-2000 trends in anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Canadell et al., 2007), has fuelled a recent resurgence of interest in geoengineering (Crutzen, 2006), with a growing number of proposals being aired in…”
Environment and host as large-scale controls of ectomycorrhizal fungi
van der Linde, S., Suz, L. M., Orme, C. D. L., Cox, F., Andreae, H., Asi, E., Atkinson, B., Benham, S. E., Carroll, C., Cools, N., et al. (2018) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0189-9 · Cited by 431
“The main projected impacts of environmental change on forest processes stem from global and regional perturbations in the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles 1,2 and declines in soil biodiversity 3,4 .”
Ecosystem function and services provided by the deep sea
Thurber, A. R., Sweetman, A. K., Narayanaswamy, B. E., Jones, D. O. B., Ingels, J., & Hansman, R. L. (2014) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-11-3941-2014 · Cited by 451
“The deep sea currently stores approximately 37 000 Gton of carbon and has already absorbed a quarter of the carbon released from human activities (Canadell et al., 2007; Sabine and Feely, 2007); this CO2 absorbance is a very important regulating service influencing climate and many other deep-sea…”
BackgroundSoil parent material—A major driver of plant nutrient limitations in terrestrial ecosystems
Augusto, L., Achat, D. L., Jonard, M., Vidal, D., & Ringeval, B. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13691 · Cited by 404
“However, the long-term carbon sequestration potential of ecosystems can be affected by diverse factors (Billings & Ziegler, 2008; Canadell et al., 2007), among which the availability of soil nutrients plays a central role (Hungate et al., 2006; 3808 | © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd…”
BackgroundClimate-related increase in the prevalence of urolithiasis in the United States
Brikowski, T. H., Lotan, Y., & Pearle, M. S. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0709652105 · Cited by 406
“5% increase per year in atmospheric CO2 since 2000) (28) are consistent with the SRESa1b scenario, although they would exceed SRESa1b-envisioned emissions if continued beyond 2025.”
ResultEffects of foliage clumping on the estimation of global terrestrial gross primary productivity
Chen, J. M., Mo, G., Písek, J., Liu, J. J., Deng, F., Ishizawa, M., & Chan, D. S. T. (2012) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2010gb003996 · Cited by 399
“[2] The terrestrial carbon cycle is the most variable component of the global carbon cycle [Canadell et al., 2007; Le Quéré et al., 2009], contributing most to the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 concentration [Zhao and Running, 2010].”
BackgroundA socio‐metabolic transition towards sustainability? Challenges for another Great Transformation
Haberl, H., Fischer‐Kowalski, M., Krausmann, F., Alier, J. M., & Winiwarter, V. (2009) · Sustainable Development · doi:10.1002/sd.410 · Cited by 387
“3%, largely as a result of rising energy consumption and increased economic activity (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundRecent progress in biocatalysis for asymmetric oxidation and reduction
Matsuda, T., Yamanaka, R., & Nakamura, K. (2009) · Tetrahedron Asymmetry · doi:10.1016/j.tetasy.2008.12.035 · Cited by 388
Global urban expansion offsets climate-driven increases in terrestrial net primary productivity
Liu, X., Pei, F., Wen, Y., Li, X., Wang, S., Wu, C., Cai, Y., Wu, J., Chen, J., Feng, K., et al. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13462-1 · Cited by 393
A remotely sensed pigment index reveals photosynthetic phenology in evergreen conifers
Gamon, J. A., Huemmrich, K. F., Wong, C. Y. S., Ensminger, I., Garrity, S. R., Hollinger, D. Y., Asko Noormets, A., & Peñuelas, J. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1606162113 · Cited by 384
“About half of the “extra” carbon added to the atmosphere by human activity is rapidly absorbed by the biosphere, effectively slowing climate change relative to what would occur without this uptake (1, 2).”
BackgroundPatterns of new versus recycled primary production in the terrestrial biosphere
Cleveland, C. C., Houlton, B. Z., Smith, W. K., Marklein, A., Reed, S. C., Parton, W. J., Grosso, S. J. D., & Running, S. W. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1302768110 · Cited by 384
Carbon emissions and the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics
Houghton, R. A. (2012) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2012.06.006 · Cited by 385
“Introduction The emissions of carbon from tropical deforestation and forest degradation are an important term in the global carbon budget [1,2].”
BackgroundSelf-citationResearch core and framework of sustainability science
Kajikawa, Y. (2008) · Sustainability Science · doi:10.1007/s11625-008-0053-1 · Cited by 384
“The annual flux of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, land use change, and other emission sources is greater than absorption by sinks, including land and ocean, and CO2 has consequently accumulated in the atmosphere (Canadell et al. 2007). One direction of research is to estimate the amount of carbon emissions…”
BackgroundInfluentialLonger growing seasons lead to less carbon sequestration by a subalpine forest
Hu, J., MOORE, D. J. P., Burns, S. P., & Monson, R. K. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01967.x · Cited by 374
“While approximately half of the emitted anthropogenic CO2 stays in the atmosphere, the remainder is assimilated into terrestrial and ocean ecosystems (Canadell et al., 2007).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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