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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
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“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“These forests have a carbon storage in biomass corresponding to 4–14 decades of global emissions [2], support one out of every five mammal, fish, bird and tree species of the world, and produce 15–20% of worldwide continental freshwater run-off to the oceans [3].”
BackgroundRising CO2, Climate Change, and Public Health: Exploring the Links to Plant Biology
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“…may have jumped from 1.3% to 3.3% per year from the 1990s to 2000–2006, potentially as a result of declining global sinks and increased economic activity, emphasizes the critical need to characterize the probable impacts of this impending climate forcing on human systems (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialMaterial Flows and Material Productivity in China, Australia, and Japan
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“Email: heinz.schandl@csiro.au c© 2012 by Yale University DOI: 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2011.00420.x Volume 16, Number 3 ments for materials and energy, with associated growth in carbon emissions (Canadell et al. 2007; Hashimoto and Moriguchi 2010; Schandl and West 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialAtmospheric deposition, CO2, and change in the land carbon sink
Fernández‐Martínez, M., Vicca, S., Janssens, I. A., Ciais, P., Obersteiner, M. H., Bartrons, M., Sardans, J., Verger, A., Canadell, J. G., Chevallier, F., et al. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-08755-8 · Cited by 97
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“Land-use and land-cover change, primarily in forests, account for the second largest human-induced flux of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, following the combustion of fossil fuels (Houghton and Skole, 1990; Canadell et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007).”
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BackgroundPromise and limitations of soils to minimize climate change
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“Despite 50 years of research data supporting the usefulness of no-till farming and conservation agriculture, the adoption rate is less than 5% (about 9.0 × 107 ha [2.223 × 108 ac] out of 1.5 × 109 ha [3.705 × 109 ac] of global cropland area) (Derpsch 2007).”
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“Currently about 50 % of the annual fossil fuel emissions is absorbed by the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere, which implies that without those sinks the current CO 2 level would approach 500 ppm (Canadell et al., 2007).”
Self-citationEstimating Quebec provincial forest resources using ICESat/GLAS
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“Our values are slightly larger, but within the uncertainty, and a larger value is expected due to the increased rate of atmospheric CO2 rise due to anthropogenic emissions [Canadell et al., 2007].”
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“Terrestrial ecosystems absorb approximately 30% of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which partially counterbalances anthropogenic CO2 emission and, thus, plays an important role in mitigating future climate warming (Canadell et al., 2007).”
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“Note data from Canadell et al. (2007) indicate range over the period 1959–2005 and data from Sitch et al. (2008) indicate range over the period 1958–2002.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialReaction mechanisms of carbon dioxide methanation
Baraj, E., Vagaský, S., Hlinčík, T., Ciahotný, K., & Tekáč, V. (2015) · Chemical Papers · doi:10.1515/chempap-2015-0216 · Cited by 85
“Carbon dioxide is the major greenhouse gas (GHG) arising from human activities and the concentration of atmospheric CO2 has been continuously and considerably increasing since the industrial revolution (Canadell et al., 2007; Kočí et al., 2008).”
BackgroundAgroforestry Practices Promote Biodiversity and Natural Resource Diversity in Atlantic Nicaragua
Sistla, S. A., Roddy, A. B., Williams, N. E., Kramer, D., Stevens, K., & Allison, S. (2016) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0162529 · Cited by 85
Watanabe, C., Sato, S., Yanagisawa, S., Uesono, Y., Terashima, I., & Noguchi, K. (2013) · Plant and Cell Physiology · doi:10.1093/pcp/pct185 · Cited by 84
“The amount of C released by terrestrial plant respiration was estimated to be approximately 6-fold that released by anthropogenic activities (Amthor 1995, Canadell et al. 2007, Houghton 2007).”
Yu, C., Feng, J., Liu, K., Wang, G., Zhu, Y., Chen, H., & Guan, D. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137142 · Cited by 84
Smart Cities : Strategic Sustainable Development for an Urban World
Colldahl, C., Frey, S., & Kelemen, J. E. (2013) · Cited by 84
Forest biomass allometry in global land surface models
Wolf, A., Ciais, P., Bellassen, V., Delbart, N., Field, C. B., & Berry, J. A. (2011) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2010gb003917 · Cited by 84
“Since 1850, land sinks have nearly counterbalanced land use change sources, by taking up ∼160 Pg C [Canadell et al., 2007].”
BackgroundSelf-citationDecoupling 2: Technologies, opportunities and policy options
von Weizsäcker, E., de Larderel, J. A., Hargroves, K. ‘., Hudson, C., Smith, M., Rodrigues, M. A. E., Manalang, A. B. S., Urama, K., Suh, S., Swilling, M., et al. (2014) · QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) · Cited by 84
Natural variability and anthropogenic change in equatorial Pacific surface ocean pCO2 and pH
Sutton, A. J., Feely, R. A., Sabine, C. L., McPhaden, M. J., Takahashi, T., Chávez, F. P., Friederich, G. E., & Mathis, J. T. (2014) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/2013gb004679 · Cited by 93
Low energy packed tower and caustic recovery for direct capture of CO2 from air
Mahmoudkhani, M., Heidel, K., Ferreira, J. C., Keith, D. W., & Cherry, R. S. (2009) · Energy Procedia · doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2009.01.201 · Cited by 83
“The conventional titanate process cannot be directly applied to air capture; however, because it requires pure and dry anhydrous sodium carbonate Separation of anhydrous sodium carbonate from Na2CO3-NaOH feed solution, and preparation of a well-mixed stream of solid sodium carbonate and sodium tri-titanate, the latter…”
BackgroundGuerrieri, R., Vanguelova, E., Michalski, G. M., Heaton, T. H. E., & Mencuccini, M. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13018 · Cited by 82
Spatiotemporal distribution and national measurement of the global carbonate carbon sink
Li, H., Wang, S., Bai, X., Luo, W., Tang, H., Cao, Y., Wu, L., Chen, F., Li, Q., Zeng, C., et al. (2018) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.196 · Cited by 81
Pollution accumulation and abatement policy in a supply chain
Ouardighi, F. E., Sim, J. E., & Kim, B. (2015) · European Journal of Operational Research · doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.08.009 · Cited by 83
Surface-ocean CO2 variability and vulnerability
Doney, S. C., Tilbrook, B., Roy, S., Metzl, N., Quéré, C. L., Hood, M., Feely, R. A., & Bakker, D. C. E. (2008) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.12.016 · Cited by 88
Metsaranta, J. M., Kurz, W. A., Neilson, E. T., & Stinson, G. (2010) · Tellus B · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00487.x · Cited by 82
“…CO2 emissions were absorbed by these sinks between 1959 and 2008 (Le Quéré et al., 2009), but the residual airborne fraction appears to have increased over time because rates of emissions have increased faster than rates of uptake by global sinks (Canadell et al., 2007; Le Quéré et al., 2009).”
BackgroundInfluentialGuerrieri, R., Lepine, L. C., Asbjornsen, H., Xiao, J., & Ollinger, S. V. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences · doi:10.1002/2016jg003415 · Cited by 81
Performance testing to identify climate-ready trees
McPherson, E. G., Berry, A. M., & van Doorn, N. S. (2017) · Urban forestry & urban greening · doi:10.1016/j.ufug.2017.09.003 · Cited by 82
Exposure history determines pteropod vulnerability to ocean acidification along the US West Coast
Bednaršek, N., Feely, R. A., Tolimieri, N., Hermann, A. J., Siedlecki, S. A., Waldbusser, G. G., McElhany, P., Alin, S. R., Klinger, T., Moore-Maley, B., et al. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-03934-z · Cited by 87
“Model-derived severity expressed as undersaturation days (see Methods, equations (1) and (2)) provides an integrated exposure metric representative of pteropod exposure history in their natural environment.”
BackgroundMetzl, N., Corbière, A., Reverdin, G., Lenton, A. A., Takahashi, T., Olsen, A. S., Johannessen, T., Pierrot, D., Wanninkhof, R. H., Ólafsdóttir, S. R., et al. (2010) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2009gb003658 · Cited by 81
“Also, successive blooms of coccolithophorids that were observed in the NA in 2003, 2004 and 2006 ( Brown and Yoder [1994] and http:// cics.umd.edu/∼chrisb/ehux_www.html) may also explain Figure 5. DIC/TA ratio as a function of depth for the northern and southern region in the NASG (mean of GLO-DAP data along Suratlant…”
BackgroundLacoue‐Labarthe, T., Martin, S. G., Oberhänsli, F., Teyssié, J., Markich, S. J., Jeffree, R. A., & Paco Bustamante, A. (2009) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-6-2561-2009 · Cited by 100
Pei, J., Niu, Z., Wang, L., Song, X., Huang, N., Geng, J., Wu, Y., & Jiang, H.-H. (2018) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-018-31733-7 · Cited by 80
Younas, M., & Harrabi, K. (2020) · Solar Energy · doi:10.1016/j.solener.2020.04.051 · Cited by 80
Peters, G. P., Marland, G., Hertwich, E. G., Saikku, L., Rautiainen, A., & Kauppi, P. E. (2009) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9606-2 · Cited by 80
“Inventories of carbon flows between the atmosphere and the biosphere and between the atmosphere and the oceans are still compiled in an effort to better understand the physical and biological processes and the bio-geochemical cycling of carbon ( Canadell et al. 2007b ).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMancinelli, R., Marinari, S., Brunetti, P., Radicetti, E., & Campiglia, E. (2015) · Soil and Tillage Research · doi:10.1016/j.still.2015.04.001 · Cited by 80
What can be learned about carbon cycle climate feedbacks from the CO 2 airborne fraction?
Gloor, M. U., Sarmiento, J. L., & Gruber, N. (2010) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-10-7739-2010 · Cited by 83
“While there remains discussion about whether this trend in the AF is actually statistically significant (Knorr, 2009), we focus our discussion here on whether the inferred conclusion is defensible, i.e. whether an increasing trend in the AF implies a decreasing efficiency of the carbon sinks.”
BackgroundDai, J., Saayman, J., Grace, J. R., & Ellis, N. (2015) · Annual Review of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering · doi:10.1146/annurev-chembioeng-061114-123310 · Cited by 81
“These sources are unsustainable and have greatly augmented atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (1), from 280 ppm before the industrial revolution to more than 400 ppm, with further increases expected in the next decade (2, 3).”
BackgroundCarbon cycling in the North American coastal ocean: a synthesis
Fennel, K., Alin, S. R., Barbero, L., Evans, W., Bourgeois, T., Cooley, S. R., Dunne, J. P. P., Feely, R. A., Hernández‐Ayón, J. M., Hu, X., et al. (2019) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019 · Cited by 81
“Since about 1750, the ocean has absorbed 27 % of anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning, cement production, and land-use changes (Canadell et al., 2007; Le Quéré et al., 2015; Sabine and Tanhua, 2010).”
BackgroundZelikova, T. J., Williams, D. G., Hoenigman, R., Blumenthal, D. M., Morgan, J. A., & Pendall, E. G. (2015) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12440 · Cited by 81
“Vegetation is currently estimated to take up a third of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions globally (Canadell et al. 2007) such that even small changes in vegetation cover and greenness highlight potential consequences for future ecosystemlevel carbon uptake potential.”
BackgroundVichi, M., Manzini, E., Fogli, P. G., Alessandri, A., Patara, L., Scoccimarro, E., Masina, S., & Navarra, A. (2011) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1079-0 · Cited by 79
Leemans, R., Asrar, G., Busalacchi, A. J., Canadell, J. G., Ingram, J. S. I., Larigauderie, A., Mooney, H. A., Nobre, C., Patwardhan, A., Rice, M., et al. (2009) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.013 · Cited by 79
Self-citationBishop, K. A., Leakey, A. D. B., & Ainsworth, E. A. (2014) · Food and Energy Security · doi:10.1002/fes3.44 · Cited by 80
AN INTRODUCTION TO FLUX MEASUREMENTS IN DIFFICULT CONDITIONS
Finnigan, J. (2008) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/07-2105.1 · Cited by 79
What place for livestock on a re-greening earth?
Janzen, H. H. (2011) · Animal Feed Science and Technology · doi:10.1016/j.anifeedsci.2011.04.055 · Cited by 109
Optimal selection of energy efficiency measures for energy sustainability of existing buildings
Tan, B., Yavuz, Y., Otay, E. N., & Çamlıbel, E. (2015) · Computers & Operations Research · doi:10.1016/j.cor.2015.01.013 · Cited by 78
“Introduction Emissions from burning fossil fuels are the primary cause of the rapid growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundHoppe, C. J. M., Langer, G., Rokitta, S. D., Wolf-Gladrow, D. A., & Rost, B. (2012) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-9-2401-2012 · Cited by 78
Deng, X., Yang, W., Li, S., Liang, H., Shi, Z., & Qiao, Z. (2020) · Applied Sciences · doi:10.3390/app10020569 · Cited by 78
“…the large amount of CO 2 and other gases generated by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas directly discharged into the atmosphere, and the emission of limestone roasting to produce cement have resulted in global carbon dioxide emissions increasing by 3.8% [1].”
BackgroundInfluentialTangen, B. A., Finocchiaro, R. G., & Gleason, R. A. (2015) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.148 · Cited by 77
Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Rhodolith/Maërl Beds
Martin, S. G., & Hall-Spencer, J. M. (2016) · Coastal research library · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-29315-8_3 · Cited by 80
How Did the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Impact Deep-Sea Ecosystems?
Fisher, C., Montagna, P. A., & Sutton, T. (2016) · Oceanography · doi:10.5670/oceanog.2016.82 · Cited by 77
Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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