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Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
Open accessAbstract
The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO 2 emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000–2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y −1 . The third process is indicated by increasing evidence ( P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO 2 emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO 2 sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate have been ≈65 ± 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 ± 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 ± 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate–carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.
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“Tropical ecosystems store an enormous 340 billion tonnes of carbon (Gibbs et al 2007), equivalent to more than 40 times the total annual anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Canadell et al 2007).”
From Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology (2008) · cites this paper as Canadell et al 2007
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“The anthropogenic climate forcing has accelerated since the beginning of the 21st century, mainly due to growing global economy and reduced absorbing efficiency of land and ocean CO 2 sinks (Canadell et al., 2007).”
From Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives (2024) · cites this paper as Canadell et al., 2007
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“This corresponds to 34% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“In the same year, land use change (e.g., harvesting of forest products and clearing for agriculture) accounted for an additional 1.5 GtC emissions”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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“This corresponds to 18% of the total 478 GtC emitted by humans between 1850 and 2005”
From Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification (2010) · cites this paper as [11]
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InfluentialTracking the Variable North Atlantic Sink for Atmospheric CO 2
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Fleischer, K., Rebel, K. T., van der Molen, M. K., Erisman, J. W., Wassen, M. J., van Loon, E. E., Montagnani, L., Gough, C. M., Herbst, M., Janssens, I. A., et al. (2013) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1002/gbc.20026 · Cited by 175
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“Annual CO2 emissions from land-use change is a highly uncertain variable, which is illustrated by the spread of the four different historical sources (Canadell et al., 2007; FAOSTAT,10 2016; Harris et al., 2012; Gütschow et al., 2017) included in the respective evaluation plot (Figure A1).”
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BackgroundInfluentialMultiple observation types reduce uncertainty in Australia's terrestrial carbon and water cycles
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“It is currently considered that land biosphere carbon sink absorbs about 30% of the anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation every year (Canadell et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007).”
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“Canadell et al. (2007) pointed that although factors such as technical progress and adjustment of energy distribution reduced the growth rate of CO2 emission, the continuous increase in global economic activity remains the largest contributor to its growth.”
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“[2] Fossil fuel emissions have driven atmospheric CO2 from about 280 ppm in the early 1800s to about 390 ppm presently, despite the uptake of about half of these emissions by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere [Canadell et al., 2007; Knorr, 2009].”
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“Estimating and preserving the carbon stock in forests can help devise sequestration strategies and reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) (Canadell et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007; Miles & Kapos, 2008; UNFCC) as well as promote carbon credits to offset greenhouse gas emissions from other sources.”
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“Variability in the global carbon cycle is dominated by terrestrial ecosystem metabolism (Houghton, 2000; Canadell et al., 2007) and it is critical to understand how and why the terrestrial carbon cycle varies to advance in our knowledge of the Earth system.”
BackgroundHydrate Technologies for CO 2 Capture and Sequestration: Status and Perspectives
Wang, P., Li, Y., Sun, N., Han, S., Wang, X., Su, Q., Li, Y., He, J., Yu, X., Du, S., et al. (2024) · Chemical Reviews · doi:10.1021/acs.chemrev.2c00777 · Cited by 150
Reduced impact logging minimally alters tropical rainforest carbon and energy exchange
Miller, S. D., Goulden, M. L., Hutyra, L. R., Keller, M., SALESKA, S. R., Wofsy, S. C., Figueira, A. M. E. S., da Rocha, H. R., & de Camargo, P. B. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1105068108 · Cited by 152
“The postlogging damage survey data are available online (1).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialInferring regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO 2 from GOSAT XCO 2 data
Deng, F., Jones, D. B. A., Henze, D. K., Bousserez, N., Bowman, K. W., Fisher, J. B., Nassar, R., O’Dell, C., Wunch, D., Wennberg, P. O., et al. (2014) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-14-3703-2014 · Cited by 165
“However, in the past half century only about 45 % of the anthropogenic emissions have remained in the atmosphere (Jones et al., 2005; Canadell et al., 2007), with the remainder absorbed by the oceans and/or fixed by the terrestrial biosphere.”
BackgroundSponge biomass and bioerosion rates increase under ocean warming and acidification
Fang, J. K., Mello‐Athayde, M. A., Schönberg, C. H. L., Kline, D. I., Hoegh‐Guldberg, O., & Dove, S. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12334 · Cited by 148
“Approximately 25% of the CO2 emitted to date by human activities has been absorbed by the oceans (Canadell et al., 2007), a process that increases the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) within the water column and leads to the formation of carbonic acid.”
BackgroundThe Time and Space of Materiality in Organizations and the Natural Environment
Bansal, P., & Knox‐Hayes, J. (2013) · Organization & Environment · doi:10.1177/1086026612475069 · Cited by 147
A Review of Tillage Practices and Their Potential to Impact the Soil Carbon Dynamics
Mehra, P., Baker, J. M., Sojka, R. E., Bolan, N. S., Desbiolles, J. M. A., Kirkham, M. B., Ross, C. W., & Gupta, R. (2018) · Advances in agronomy · doi:10.1016/bs.agron.2018.03.002 · Cited by 160
The mineralization and sequestration of organic carbon in relation to agricultural soil erosion
Xiao, H., Li, Z., Chang, X., Huang, B., Nie, X., Liu, C., Liu, L., Wang, D., & Jiang, J. (2018) · Geoderma · doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.05.018 · Cited by 155
Khan, Y., Oubaih, H., & Elgourrami, F. Z. (2022) · Renewable Energy · doi:10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.140 · Cited by 150
Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies
Caldeira, K., & Wood, L. T. (2008) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0132 · Cited by 147
Forrester, D. I., Benneter, A., Bouriaud, O., & Bauhus, J. (2016) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12704 · Cited by 148
“This carbon sequestration function makes a valuable contribution to climate change protection (Canadell et al. 2007; Canadell & Raupach 2008) and economic incentives have been devised to encourage practices that increase forest carbon sequestration (Agrawal, Nepstad & Chhatre 2011).”
BackgroundRamírez‐Valiente, J. A., Valladares, F., Gil, L., & Aranda, I. (2009) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.01.024 · Cited by 146
“As anthropogenic emissions of CO2 have increased more than those proposed by any recent model (Canadell et al., 2007), we estimated the expected future climate under the A2 scenario.”
BackgroundEnergy, Economic Growth and Environmental Sustainability: Five Propositions
Sorrell, S. (2010) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su2061784 · Cited by 143
“3%/year increase since 2000 [75].”
Wong, C. Y. S., & Gamon, J. A. (2015) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.13251 · Cited by 145
Hu, G., Zhao, L., Ren, L., Wu, X., Wu, T., Xie, C., Zhu, X., & Su, Y. (2018) · Geoderma · doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2018.10.044 · Cited by 145
Morley, S. A., Abele, D., Barnes, D. K. A., Cárdenas, C. A., Cotté, C., Gutt, J., Henley, S. F., Höfer, J., Hughes, K. A., Martin, S. M., et al. (2020) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.547188 · Cited by 155
Davis, J. A., O’Grady, A. P., Dale, A. P., Arthington, A. H., Gell, P., Driver, P. D., Bond, N. R., Casanova, M. T., Finlayson, C. M., Watts, R., et al. (2015) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.127 · Cited by 154
How Well Do We Understand the Land‐Ocean‐Atmosphere Carbon Cycle?
Crisp, D., Dolman, A. J., Tanhua, T., McKinley, G. A., Hauck, J., Bastos, A., Sitch, S. A., Eggleston, S., & Aich, V. (2022) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1029/2021rg000736 · Cited by 167
“Today, these natural fluxes have comparable amplitudes, but now, CO2 “sinks” the land biosphere and ocean also remove about half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions, reducing the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and mitigating climate change (Bennedsen et al., 2019; Canadell et al., 2007; Friedlingstein et al., 2020; Knorr,…”
BackgroundResultComparison of carbon estimation methods for European forests
Neumann, M., Moreno, A. L., Mues, V., Härkönen, S., Mura, M., Bouriaud, O., Lang, M., Achten, W., Thivolle-Cazat, A., Bronisz, K., et al. (2015) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2015.11.016 · Cited by 141
Graphene-based materials for electrochemical CO2 reduction
Ma, T., Fan, Q., Li, X., Qiu, J., Wu, T., & Sun, Z. (2019) · Journal of CO2 Utilization · doi:10.1016/j.jcou.2019.02.001 · Cited by 143
Green growth and climate change: Conceptual and empirical considerations
Antal, M., & Van Den Bergh, J. C. J. M. (2016) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2014.992003 · Cited by 141
“5% for all GHGs (IPCC, 2014; World Bank, 2014) and less than 1% for carbon emissions (Canadell et al., 2007; PwC, 2014).”
BackgroundInfluentialRidhosari, B., & Rahman, A. (2019) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119172 · Cited by 142
Priming depletes soil carbon and releases nitrogen in a scrub-oak ecosystem exposed to elevated CO2
Langley, J. A., McKinley, D. C., Wolf, A. A., Hungate, B. A., Drake, B. G., & Megonigal, J. P. (2008) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2008.09.016 · Cited by 141
Convergence of atmospheric and North Atlantic carbon dioxide trends on multidecadal timescales
McKinley, G. A., Fay, A. R., Takahashi, T., & Metzl, N. (2011) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1193 · Cited by 141
Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing?
Knorr, W. (2009) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl040613 · Cited by 141
“…recent studies have highlighted a decreasing ability of the Earth system to absorb the excess CO2 [Le Quéré et al., 2007; Schuster and Watson, 2007; Canadell et al., 2007], the question if and why the airborne fraction has stayed constant at the decadal time scale has received less attention.”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialKurz, W. A., Stinson, G., & Rampley, G. J. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.2198 · Cited by 141
“Even when NPP is enhanced, NEP may (Chen et al. 2006) or may not (Canadell et al. 2007b) be enhanced.”
BackgroundInfluentialDiverse coral communities in naturally acidified waters of a Western Pacific reef
Shamberger, K. E. F., Cohen, A. L., Golbuu, Y., McCorkle, D. C., Lentz, S. J., & Barkley, H. C. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2013gl058489 · Cited by 150
Öztürk, İ. (2017) · Progress in Nuclear Energy · doi:10.1016/j.pnucene.2017.05.030 · Cited by 143
Zhang, F., Chen, J. M., Pan, Y., Birdsey, R. A., Shen, S., Ju, W., & He, L. (2012) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2011jg001930 · Cited by 139
“[49] There is still substantial debate about whether or not CO2 fertilization has a significant effect on the terrestrial biosphere [Norby et al., 2005; Canadell et al., 2007a, 2007b; Luo and Weng, 2011; Pan et al., 2011a].”
BackgroundAn accounting of C‐based trace gas release during abiotic plant litter degradation
Lee, H., Rahn, T. A., & Throop, H. L. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02579.x · Cited by 140
“…of plant litter is small (e.g., global flux of C from soil respiration is approximately 75 Pg C yr 1, fossil fuel burning is 5 Pg C yr 1, land use change is 1–2 Pg C yr 1, and gross primary production is 100 Pg C yr 1 (Canadell et al., 2007; Raich & Potter, 1995; Schlesinger & Andrews, 2000).”
BackgroundFasoli, B., Lin, J. C., Bowling, D. R., Mitchell, L. E., & Mendoza, D. (2018) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-11-2813-2018 · Cited by 140
The Australian terrestrial carbon budget
Haverd, V., Raupach, M., Briggs, P., Canadell, J. G., Davis, S. J., Law, R. M., Meyer, C. P. M., Peters, G. P., Pickett-Heaps, C. A., & Sherman, B. S. (2013) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-10-851-2013 · Cited by 141
“6 Pg C yr−1 (Canadell et al., 2007; Pan et al., 2011), and taking the Australian land surface are as 5.”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationAudit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty
Ballantyne, A. P., Andres, R. J., Houghton, R. A., Stocker, B. D., Wanninkhof, R. H., Anderegg, W. R. L., Cooper, L. A., DeGrandpre, M. D., Tans, P. P., Miller, J. B., et al. (2015) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015 · Cited by 145
Self-citationPhotophoretic levitation of engineered aerosols for geoengineering
Keith, D. W. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1009519107 · Cited by 135
“Over the last few years, more systematic research and debate on the topic has emerged spurred by Crutzen’s (2) call for systematic analysis of geoengineering in response to the continued acceleration of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (3) and the threat of abrupt climate change.”
BackgroundCarbon cost of collective farming collapse in Russia
Kurganova, I. N., de Gerenyu, V. О. L., Six, J., & Kuzyakov, Y. V. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12379 · Cited by 143
Anlauf, H., D’Croz, L., & O’Dea, A. (2010) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2010.11.009 · Cited by 135
“Increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere not only contribute to global warming but simultaneously cause ocean acidification and shifts in the seawater carbonate system because 25% of CO2 is absorbed by the surface ocean forming carbonic acid (Canadell et al., 2007).”
BackgroundLiu, H., Zhu, Y., Ma, J., Zhang, Z., & Hu, W. (2020) · Advanced Functional Materials · doi:10.1002/adfm.201910534 · Cited by 139
Recent Advances in Interface Engineering for Electrocatalytic CO2 Reduction Reaction
Li, J., Abbas, S. U., Wang, H., Zhang, Z., & Hu, W. (2021) · Nano-Micro Letters · doi:10.1007/s40820-021-00738-9 · Cited by 147
Subhadra, B., & Grinson‐George (2011) · Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture · doi:10.1002/jsfa.4207 · Cited by 135
Interactions among bioenergy feedstock choices, landscape dynamics, and land use
Dale, V. H., Kline, K. L., Wright, L. L., Perlack, R. D., Downing, M. E., & Graham, R. L. (2011) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/09-0501.1 · Cited by 137
The role of networks in transforming Australian agriculture
Dowd, A.-M., Marshall, N., Fleming, A., Jakku, E., Gaillard, E., & Howden, M. S. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2275 · Cited by 136
Telszewski, M., Chazottes, A., Schuster, U., Watson, A. J., Moulin, C., Bakker, D. C. E., González‐Dávila, M., Johannessen, T., Körtzinger, A., Lüger, H., et al. (2009) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-6-1405-2009 · Cited by 136
“For instance, Canadell et al. (2007) suggest that around 10 per cent of the recent (2000–2006) rise in the atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be attributed to the weakening of the ocean sink.25 Despite the huge community effort to increase the network of in situ measurements in the North Atlantic,…”
Ionic liquid-based electrolytes for CO2 electroreduction and CO2 electroorganic transformation
Tan, X., Sun, X., & Han, B. (2021) · National Science Review · doi:10.1093/nsr/nwab022 · Cited by 137
“However, the excessive exploitation of fossil fuels has given rise to the energy crisis and undesirable environmental changes [1,2].”
BackgroundThe microbial aspect of climate change
Dutta, H., & Dutta, A. (2016) · Energy Ecology and Environment · doi:10.1007/s40974-016-0034-7 · Cited by 136
“effects of global warming on carbon cycle feedbacks is a primary requirement to design models of future climate (Canadell et al. 2007).”
BackgroundMind the gap: non‐biological processes contributing to soil CO 2 efflux
Rey, A. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12821 · Cited by 134
“Although this is small compared to current soil CO2 efflux estimates 75 Pg C yr 1 (Canadell et al., 2007; Bond-Lamberty & Thomson, 2010b), it is a significant amount and has not been accounted for in current glo- bal budgets.”
ResultAn assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia
Green, D., Alexander, L. V., McInnes, K. L., Church, J. A., Nicholls, N., & White, N. J. (2009) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9756-2 · Cited by 136
“Canadell et al. 2007; Raupach et al. 2007) show that recent rates of greenhouse gas emissions are currently above those considered by Dunlop and Brown (2008) and Sharing Knowledge (2008) in the form of the commonly used Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), described in Nakićenović and Swart (2000).”
BackgroundChen, S., Arrouays, D., Angers, D. A., Martin, M. P., & Walter, C. A. (2018) · Soil and Tillage Research · doi:10.1016/j.still.2018.11.001 · Cited by 140
Metadata
- Authors
- Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., & Marland, G.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;
- Carnegie Institution for Science (US)
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2007-11-20
- Volume
- 104
- Issue
- 47
- Pages
- 18866-18870
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2141868
- OpenAlex
- W2133920545
- Cited by
- 2,136
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 45 · 2025: 69 · 2024: 73 · 2023: 89 · 2022: 99 · 2021: 93 · 2020: 87 · 2019: 104 · 2018: 94 · 2017: 115 · 2016: 115 · 2015: 140 · 2014: 132 · 2013: 168 · 2012: 121
- FWCI
- 116.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (submittedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/C516079/1, bas010013)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- atmospheric CO2 growth rate, carbon intensity, economic growth, fossil fuel CO2 emissions, carbon sink, ocean carbon uptake, land carbon uptake, radiative forcing, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Fossil Fuels, Time Factors, Greenhouse Effect, Ecosystem
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