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Future of the human climate niche

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Xu, Chi, Kohler, Timothy A., Lenton, Timothy M., Svenning, Jens-Christian, Scheffer, Marten·2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1910114117PMC PMC7260949
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Abstract

Significance: We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.

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Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.1910114117

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Fig. 1. The realized human climate niche relative to available combinations of MAT and precipitation. Human populations have historically remained concentrated in a narrow subset (A–C) of the available climatic range (G), which is not explained by soil fertility (H) or potential primary productivity (I). Current production of crops (D) and livestock (E) are largely congruent with the human distribution, whereas gross domestic product peaks at somewhat lower temperatures. Reconstructions of human populations 500 BP are based on the HYDE database, whereas those for 6 Ky BP are based on ArchaeoGlobe (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CQWUBI, Harvard Dataverse, V4). NPP, net primary productivity. See SI Appendix, Methods.
Fig. 1. The realized human climate niche relative to available combinations of MAT and precipitation. Human populations have historically remained concentrated in a narrow subset (A–C) of the available climatic range (G), which is not explained by soil fertility (H) or potential primary productivity (I). Current production of crops (D) and livestock (E) are largely congruent with the human distribution, whereas gross domestic product peaks at somewhat lower temperatures. Reconstructions of human populations 500 BP are based on the HYDE database, whereas those for 6 Ky BP are based on ArchaeoGlobe (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CQWUBI, Harvard Dataverse, V4). NPP, net primary productivity. See SI Appendix, Methods.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central
Fig. 2. Change in MAT experienced by humans. (A) Current and past human population densities (normalized to sum unity) and modeled human niche (blue dashed curve, a double Gaussian model fitting of current population density) as a function of MAT (°C), contrasted to the projected situation in 2070 (red curve). Bands represent fifth and 95th percentiles of the ensemble of climate and population reconstructions. For the future projection, we take projected populations and climate RCP8.5 and SSP3. (B) Mean temperature experienced by a human being in different periods. Boxplots and data points (gray dots) are shown for the ensemble of climate and population reconstructions. Reconstructions of human populations for 6 Ky BP are based on the HYDE (HY) and ArchaeoGLOBE (AG) (with additional processing) databases.
Fig. 2. Change in MAT experienced by humans. (A) Current and past human population densities (normalized to sum unity) and modeled human niche (blue dashed curve, a double Gaussian model fitting of current population density) as a function of MAT (°C), contrasted to the projected situation in 2070 (red curve). Bands represent fifth and 95th percentiles of the ensemble of climate and population reconstructions. For the future projection, we take projected populations and climate RCP8.5 and SSP3. (B) Mean temperature experienced by a human being in different periods. Boxplots and data points (gray dots) are shown for the ensemble of climate and population reconstructions. Reconstructions of human populations for 6 Ky BP are based on the HYDE (HY) and ArchaeoGLOBE (AG) (with additional processing) databases.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central
Fig. 3. Expansion of extremely hot regions in a business-as-usual climate scenario. In the current climate, MATs >29 °C are restricted to the small dark areas in the Sahara region. In 2070, such conditions are projected to occur throughout the shaded area following the RCP8.5 scenario. Absent migration, that area would be home to 3.5 billion people in 2070 following the SSP3 scenario of demographic development. Background colors represent the current MATs.
Fig. 3. Expansion of extremely hot regions in a business-as-usual climate scenario. In the current climate, MATs >29 °C are restricted to the small dark areas in the Sahara region. In 2070, such conditions are projected to occur throughout the shaded area following the RCP8.5 scenario. Absent migration, that area would be home to 3.5 billion people in 2070 following the SSP3 scenario of demographic development. Background colors represent the current MATs.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central
Fig. 4. Projected geographical shift of the human temperature niche. (Top) Geographical position of the human temperature niche projected on the current situation (A) and the RCP8.5 projected 2070 climate (B). Those maps represent relative human distributions (summed to unity) for the imaginary situation that humans would be distributed over temperatures following the stylized double Gaussian model fitted to the modern data (the blue dashed curve in Fig. 2A). (C) Difference between the maps, visualizing potential source (orange) and sink (green) areas for the coming decades if humans were to be relocated in a way that would maintain this historically stable distribution with respect to temperature. The dashed line in A and B indicates the 5% percentile of the probability distribution. For an analysis including precipitation effects, see SI Appendix, Fig. S10.
Fig. 4. Projected geographical shift of the human temperature niche. (Top) Geographical position of the human temperature niche projected on the current situation (A) and the RCP8.5 projected 2070 climate (B). Those maps represent relative human distributions (summed to unity) for the imaginary situation that humans would be distributed over temperatures following the stylized double Gaussian model fitted to the modern data (the blue dashed curve in Fig. 2A). (C) Difference between the maps, visualizing potential source (orange) and sink (green) areas for the coming decades if humans were to be relocated in a way that would maintain this historically stable distribution with respect to temperature. The dashed line in A and B indicates the 5% percentile of the probability distribution. For an analysis including precipitation effects, see SI Appendix, Fig. S10.CC BY-NC-ND · PubMed Central

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Metadata

Authors
Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J.-C., & Scheffer, M.
Affiliations
  • Nanjing University (CN)
  • Crow Canyon Archaeological Center (US)
  • University of Exeter (GB)
  • Aarhus University (DK)
  • Santa Fe Institute (US)
Corresponding author
  • Xu, Chi
  • Scheffer, Marten
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2020-05-04
Volume
117
Issue
21
Pages
11350-11355
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1910114117
PMC
PMC7260949
OpenAlex
W3021189791
Cited by
862
References
77
Citations by year
2026: 62 · 2025: 102 · 2024: 181 · 2023: 143 · 2022: 160 · 2021: 150 · 2020: 64
FWCI
51.67
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Funders
  • national natural s (31770512)
  • Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2018-046)
  • National Science Foundation (SMA-1637171)
  • Villum Fonden (16549)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Climate change impacts on agriculture
Keywords
mean annual temperature, climate envelope, thermal adaptation, migration, in situ adaptation, agricultural production, economic output, Sahara, human development, climate change mitigation
MeSH terms
Africa, Northern, Agriculture, Animals, Humans, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Temperature, Data Mining, Climate Change, Livestock, Human Migration

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