Cited by 372Ethics and Social Impacts of AIComputational and Text Analysis MethodsArtificial Intelligence Applications

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 105 of the 105 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 2 of the 91 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Can Generative AI improve social science?

Open access
Bail, Christopher A.·2024·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Abstract

Generative AI that can produce realistic text, images, and other human-like outputs is currently transforming many different industries. Yet it is not yet known how such tools might influence social science research. I argue Generative AI has the potential to improve survey research, online experiments, automated content analyses, agent-based models, and other techniques commonly used to study human behavior. In the second section of this article, I discuss the many limitations of Generative AI. I examine how bias in the data used to train these tools can negatively impact social science research—as well as a range of other challenges related to ethics, replication, environmental impact, and the proliferation of low-quality research. I conclude by arguing that social scientists can address many of these limitations by creating open-source infrastructure for research on human behavior. Such infrastructure is not only necessary to ensure broad access to high-quality research tools, I argue, but also because the progress of AI will require deeper understanding of the social forces that guide human behavior.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This perspective argues that generative AI can improve social science by advancing survey research, online experiments, automated content analysis, and agent-based modeling, while also posing serious bias, ethics, replication, environmental, and “junk science” risks. It concludes that social scientists should build open-source infrastructure to govern, study, and shape these tools.

Key findings

  • Generative AI can impersonate humans in some research settings: GPT-2 produced foreign-policy statements judged as credible as human-written ones, humans were largely unable to distinguish LLM- from human-authored texts, and GPT-3 could generate COVID-19 misinformation that escaped detection by most social media platforms.
  • LLMs show promise for reproducing experiments and coding text: Ashokkumar et al. found a correlation of 0.86 between treatment effects in 482 studies and GPT-4 responses, and Mellon et al. found LLM classifications matched highly trained coders roughly 95% of the time.
  • Simulation research is expanding: Park et al. used several dozen GPT-3.5-turbo agents in a small-town simulacrum that developed routines and emergent group behavior; Törnberg et al. simulated a social media platform with 500 agents calibrated using American National Election Study data; Allamong et al. had respondents interact with LLM impersonators for ten minutes, with most participants uncertain whether they interacted with humans or bots.
  • The paper identifies major risks: LLM bias against groups such as those over 65, widowed, or Mormon; difficulty replicating probabilistic outputs; prompt sensitivity and model drift; ethical/privacy concerns; and environmental costs, citing a 2019 study that training a single LLM may generate as much CO₂ as the lifetime emissions of five automobiles.

Methods

  • Design: conceptual/perspective article, not an empirical study; the author synthesizes recent research and proposes an agenda for social science use of generative AI.
  • Data or sample: no original data; the argument draws on cited studies, including published papers and preprints, across surveys, online experiments, text analysis, and agent-based modeling.
  • Main analysis: narrative synthesis and conceptual argument; no systematic search strategy, meta-analysis, or new quantitative analysis is described.

Limitations

  • Author-stated: the analysis is limited to social science, focuses on scientific research rather than broader social life, may become outdated quickly, does not provide a technical discussion of how generative AI models work, and many cited studies are preprints that have not undergone rigorous peer review and may fail to replicate.
  • Evident from the text: as a perspective/review, the selection of studies is illustrative rather than systematic, with no formal inclusion criteria or quantitative synthesis; conclusions depend heavily on rapidly evolving models and preprints.
  • Evident from the text: the paper notes unresolved replication problems, including probabilistic outputs, lack of standards for temperature parameters, prompt sensitivity, model drift over time, and substantial differences across models.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.2314021121

Cites

105 of 105 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

67 Not checked yet · 52 Own interpretation · 9 No basis given · 1 Supported · 1 Partly supported · accuracy not yet measured

Verify all 85 references — free account

Show all 53 claims

  • It may state two separate claims as one. 51
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 47
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
77 of 77
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Bias in Generative AI tools can be carefully controlled.

    “If bias in Generative AI tools can be carefully controlled—a major assumption—it could allow researchers to study its impact in empirical settings (for example, a survey respondent evaluating a hypothetical applicant for a job).”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The processes used to train the most popular Generative AI models, such as GPT-4, are largely unknown.

    “This is no easy task when the processes used to train the most popular Generative AI models—such as GPT-4—are largely unknown.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Many populations that are difficult to study may not be well represented in the training data used to create Generative AI.

    “Far more research is needed to determine whether LLM-based simulations are realistic enough to be useful in such endeavors—especially since many populations that are difficult to study may not be well represented in the training data used to create Generative AI.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Many of the studies discussed in the article are preprints that have not yet been peer-reviewed, much less replicated.

    “As I mentioned at the outset of this article, many of the studies discussed above are preprints that have not yet been peer-reviewed, much less replicated.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Best practices for sensitivity analyses of prompt variations have not yet been identified in social science or any other field.

    “But best practices for such sensitivity analyses have not yet been identified in social science—or any other field—to my knowledge.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    OpenAI has not disclosed basic information about GPT-4, such as its size or number of parameters.

    “Indeed, OpenAI has not even disclosed even the most basic information about GPT-4—such as its size, or number of parameters.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Meta recently stopped providing information about datasets used to train Llama and does not provide licenses without restriction.

    “Yet Meta recently stopped providing information about the datasets used to train Llama, and does not provide licenses without restriction, as is customary with open-source software.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The quality and performance of open-source Generative AI tools has increased markedly in recent months.

    “Another reason for social scientists to consider building their own infrastructure is that the quality and performance of open-source Generative AI tools has increased markedly in recent months.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Llama 3 and R Command + and other freely available models are beginning to approach the performance of proprietary models in many areas.

    “Though benchmarks for evaluating the performance of LLMs are hotly debated, it is noteworthy that Llama 3 and R Command + and other freely available models are beginning to approach the performance of proprietary models in many areas.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Most open-source models provide more transparency than proprietary counterparts.

    “In addition to being free to use, most open-source models provide more transparency than their proprietary counterparts.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Open-source models often create and sustain a community of people with shared concerns.

    “Open-source models also often create and sustain a community of people with shared concerns.”
11 of 11

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Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

4 of 4

Citations

Cites

Show all 90 references

Research works printed but not linked: 6

  1. K. Sayash, A. Narayanan, AI Snake Oil (Princeton University Press, 2024).
  2. Y. Li Y. Zhang L. Sun Metaagents: Simulating interactions of human behaviors for LLM-based task-oriented coordination via collaborative generative agents. arXiv [Preprint] (2023). https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.06500 (Accessed 19 December 2023). · arXiv
  3. N. Ghaffarzadegan A. Majumdar R. Williams N. Hosseinichimeh Generative agent-based modeling: Unveiling social system dynamics through coupling mechanistic models with generative artificial intelligence. arXiv [Preprint] (2023). https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.11456 (Accessed 19 December 2023). · arXiv
  4. K. C. Yang F. Menczer Large language models can rate news outlet credibility. arXiv [Preprint] (2023). https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.00228 (Accessed 20 December 2023). · DOI · Paper page
  5. W. I. Cho J. W. Kim S. M. Kim N. S. Kim “On measuring gender bias” in Proceedings of the First Workshop on Gender Bias in Natural Language Processing (2019).
  6. R. Bommasani , Considerations for Governing Open Foundation Models. Issue Brief Human, Stanford HAI (Elsevier, 2023).

Cited by

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Items 301–372 of 372

Metadata

Authors
Bail, C. A.
Affiliations
Duke University (US)
Corresponding author
Bail, Christopher A.
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2024-05-09
Volume
121
Issue
21
Pages
e2314021121-e2314021121
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
OpenAlex
W4396781199
Cited by
369
References
90
Citations by year
2026: 143 · 2025: 160 · 2024: 55
FWCI
148.38
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nd)
  • SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
Funders
John F. Templeton Foundation (62656)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Ethics and Social Impacts of AI
  • Social Sciences › General Social Sciences › Computational and Text Analysis Methods
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Artificial Intelligence Applications
Keywords
generative AI, social science research, survey research, online experiments, computational text analysis, agent-based modeling, training data bias, research ethics, replication, environmental impact of AI, human behavior
MeSH terms
Artificial Intelligence, Humans, Social Sciences

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