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Cited by 980Bioenergy crop production and managementBioeconomy and Sustainability DevelopmentBiofuel production and bioconversion

The effect of bioenergy expansion: food, energy, and environment

Open access
Popp, J., Lakner, Z., Harangi-Rákos, M., Fári, M.·2014·Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
DOI 10.1016/j.rser.2014.01.056
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Abstract

The increasing prices and environmental impacts of fossil fuels have made the production of biofuels to reach unprecedented volumes over the last 15 years. Given the increasing land requirement for biofuel production, the assessment of the impacts that extensive biofuel production may cause to food supply and to the environment has considerable importance. Agriculture faces some major inter-connected challenges in delivering food security at a time of increasing pressures from population growth, changing consumption patterns and dietary preferences, and post-harvest losses. At the same time, there are growing opportunities and demands for the use of biomass to provide additional renewables, energy for heat, power and fuel, pharmaceuticals and green chemical feedstocks. Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is expected to play a substantial role in future energy systems. However, the worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited, because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection. Furthermore, the potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation remains unclear due to large uncertainties about future agricultural yield improvements and land availability for biomass plantations. Large-scale cultivation of dedicated biomass is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, global food prices and water scarcity. Therefore, integrated policies for energy, land use and water management are needed. As biomass contains all the elements found in fossil resources, albeit in different combinations, therefore present and developing technologies can lead to a future based on renewable, sustainable and low carbon economies. This article presents [1] risks to food and energy security [2] estimates of bioenergy potential with regard to biofuel production, and [3] the challenges of the environmental impact.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This review assesses global bioenergy expansion and its implications for food, energy, and environment, concluding that bioenergy has large but limited potential and that integrated land, water, and energy policies are needed. It finds that sustainable bioenergy potential is much lower than technical estimates and that indirect land-use change, food prices, and water scarcity are key risks.

Key findings

  • Global technical bioenergy potential estimates span less than 50 to 1500 EJ/year in 2050; sustainability-constrained scenarios indicate 200–500 EJ/year, while some analyses suggest a biophysical upper limit of about 250 EJ/year in 2050.
  • Global cropland used for biofuels is about 2.5% (40 million gross hectares), falling to 1.5% net when co-products substitute for grains and oilseeds; by 2050 land for biofuel production would need to rise to around 100 million ha (about 6% of arable land). Global food production must increase by 60% by 2050, with crop yield growth slowing to 0.8% per year (2005/2007–2050) versus 1.7% per year (1961–2007).
  • Land-use change contributes about 15% of global GHG emissions; bioenergy-related land-use change represents only around 1% of total land-use-change emissions. Indirect land-use change emissions are reported at 30 to more than 100% of fossil fuel emissions, and indirect emissions are in the order of 10–40% of emissions from substituted fossil fuels. Forest conservation reduces bioenergy supply from about 100 EJ in 2055 to 70 EJ and from about 300 EJ in 2095 to 270 EJ.
  • One metric tonne of DDGS can replace on average 1.22 metric tonnes of feed consisting of corn and soybean meal in the United States; accounting for co-products reduces the land required for feedstock cultivation to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).

Methods

  • The paper conducts a meta-analysis contrasting and combining results from various studies, biomass supply scenarios, and global models linked to land, water, energy use, and climate change in terms of food-, energy-, and environmental security.
  • Search terms included food-, energy- and environmental security, food demand, yield trends, renewable energy, biomass, biofuels, by-products for livestock feeding from biofuel production, land-use change, biofuels and the environment, sustainability requirements, and climate change mitigation; references covered 2001 to 2013, with supplemental bibliography searches.
  • Calculations were made for the land required for cultivation of feedstocks adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds; the EU policy objective of 20% GHG emission reductions using 20% renewables by 2020 is also presented.

Limitations

  • The paper states that results are potentially biased because studies might differ in their focus on potential or realized effects, their use of different baselines for comparisons, and other background conditions; there is also a lack of available publications related to the feed value of increasing biofuels by-products.
  • The paper states that precise quantification of GHG savings for specific systems is often hampered by lack of reliable data, different methods of quantification lead to variation in estimates, and indirect effects are uncertain and vary in time with no fixed indirect emission factor.
  • Evident from the text: as a review/meta-analysis, findings depend on assumptions and scenarios in cited studies, and the wide ranges reported (e.g., less than 50 to 1500 EJ/year) limit precision; no new primary experimental data are presented.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.rser.2014.01.056

Cites

71 of 71 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 147 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingreasoning

    By adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds, the land required for cultivation of feedstocks declines to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).

    “By adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds the land required for cultivation of feedstocks declines to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).”
    • Also stated in: § 3.3.3. Substitution of traditional animal feed with co-products of biofuel production · plain
      “By adding by-products substituted for grains and oilseeds the land required for cultivation of feedstocks declines to 1.5% of the global crop area (net land requirement).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
    • Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.
  • Findingcitation

    According to the literature review, the global technical potential for bioenergy, considering also demand for other land-use, ranges from less than 50 EJ to 1500 EJ in 2050.

    “According to the literature review, the global technical potential for bioenergy, considering also demand for other land-use, ranges from less than 50 EJ to 1500 EJ in 2050 (Table 1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingreasoning

    Cultivation of bioenergy crops increases CO2 emissions from deforestation.

    “and it increases CO 2 emissions from deforestation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    Cultivation of bioenergy crops increases cropland expansion.

    “However, cultivation of bioenergy crops has several effects: it increases cropland expansion;”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    Cultivation of bioenergy crops takes over a huge share in total cropland.

    “it takes over a huge share in total cropland;”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 136
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 153
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    International trade in biomass and biofuels has become much more important in the last decade, with roughly 5% of biofuels traded internationally and one-third of all pellet production for energy use in 2010.

    “International trade in biomass and biofuels has become much more important in the last decade, with roughly 5% of biofuels (fuel ethanol and biodiesel only) traded internationally and one-third of all pellet production for energy use in 2010.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    In 2010 global production and transport of wood pellets exceeded 22 million t, and in 2012 about 8.2 million t of pellets were traded internationally, with 40% shipped from North America to Europe.

    “In global production and transport of wood pellets exceeded 22 million t, and in 2012 about 8.2 million t of pellets were traded internationally, 40% of pellets were shipped from North America to Europe [59,82].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [82] Lamers P, Marchal D, Schouwenberg PP, Cocchi M, Junginger M. Global Wood ChipTrade for Energy. IEA Bioenergy, Task 40; 2012.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    About two-thirds of pellet production is used in small heat plants and one-third in larger power plants.

    “About two-thirds of pellet production is used in small heat plants and one-third in larger power plants [83].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [83] Goh CS, Junginger M, Bradley D, Hektor B, Wild M, Deutmeyer M, Schouwenberg PP, Hess JR, Jay Shankar Tumuluru, JS, Bradburn K, editors. Low Cost, Long Distance Biomass Supply Chains. IEA Bioenergy, Task 40; 2013.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Ethanol production in the United States consumes about 15% of annual global corn production, raising concerns about its impact on food supply.

    “Ethanol production in the United States, for example, consumes about 15% of annual global corn production, raising concerns about its impact on food supply.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Currently, less than 3% of global agricultural land is used for cultivating biofuel crops and LUC associated with bioenergy represents only around 1% of the total emissions caused by land-use change globally, most of which are produced by changes in land use for food and fodder production, or other reasons.

    “Currently, less than 3% of global agricultural land is used for cultivating biofuel crops and LUC associated with bioenergy represents only around 1% of the total emissions caused by land-use change globally most of which are produced by changes in land use for food and fodder production, or other reasons [87].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [87] Berndes G, Bird N, Cowie A. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation; 2010. 〈www.ieabioenergy.com〉.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    The fuel ethanol sector, mainly in the US, accounts for 15% (net 10%) of global corn consumption and 20% of global sugar cane production.

    “The fuel ethanol sector, mainly in the US, accounts for 15% (net 10%) of global corn consumption and 20% of global sugar cane production.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    In the case of biodiesel production, 50-60% of rapeseed (rapeseed cake/meal) and 80% of soybean (soybean meal) is returned to the feed sector.

    “In case of biodiesel production 50-60% of rapeseed (rapeseed cake/meal) and 80% of soybean (soybean meal) is returned to the feed sector and the net land requirement decrease to around 6 million ha.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.
    • Rests on an assumption: In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation

    Currently available values indicate a high GHG mitigation potential of 60-120%, similar to the 70-110% mitigation level of sugarcane ethanol and better than most current biofuels.

    “Currently available values indicate a high GHG mitigation potential of 60-120%,foot_3 similar to the 70-110% mitigation level of sugarcane ethanol and better than most current biofuels [2].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    In the US some 8% of cropland is dedicated to biofuel production, however, 20-35% of corn and soybean area is used for biofuel production.

    “In the US some 8% of cropland is dedicated to biofuel production, however, 20-35% of corn and soybean area is used for biofuel production.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The proportion of global cropland used for biofuels is currently some 2.5% with wide differences among countries and regions.

    “The proportion of global cropland used for biofuels is currently some 2.5% with wide differences among countries and regions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In Brazil biofuel requires 3% (ethanol 1.5%) of all cropland (including pastureland) available in the country even if more than 50% of sugar cane area (20% of global area) is used for ethanol production.

    “In Brazil biofuel is just requiring 3% (ethanol 1.5%) of all cropland (included pastureland) available in the country even if more than 50% of sugar cane area (20% of global area) is used for ethanol production [authors's calculation].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [authors's calculation]

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In 2010 about 20 million gross hectares of grains, sugar cane and cassava for fuel ethanol production and 20 million gross hectares of oilseed feedstock was needed for biodiesel production.

    “In 2010 about 20 million gross hectares of grains, sugar cane and cassava for fuel ethanol production and 20 million gross hectares of oilseed feedstock was needed for biodiesel production (Table 2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    For regions with relatively more conversion of forests, the average emission value might be higher.

    “For regions with relatively more conversion of forests, this value might be higher.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Typical emission values over the whole period are on average 300 to 1600 t CO2 equivalent/ha for the conversion of forest to agricultural land, and 75 to 364 t CO2 equivalent/ha for grassland or savannah.

    “Typical emission values over the whole period are on average 300 to 1600 t CO 2 equivalent/ha for the conversion of forest to agricultural land, and 75 to 364 t CO 2 equivalent/ha for grassland or savannah [4,29,30].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [4] Searchinger, 2008, Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [29] Fargione, 2008, Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [30] Van Minnen, JG. The terrestrial carbon cycle on the regional and global scale. Modeling uncertainties and policy relevance [Ph.D. thesis]. Wageningen University; 2008.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In the last 35 years global energy supplies have nearly doubled but the relative contribution from renewables has hardly changed at around 13%.

    “In the last 35 years global energy supplies have nearly doubled but the relative contribution from renewables has hardly changed at around 13% [2].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Fritsche presented an average value of 5 t CO2 equivalent/ha per year.

    “Fritsche [31] presented an average value of 5 t CO 2 equivalent/ha per year.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] Fritsche U. Bioenergy GHG emission balances including direct and indirect land use change effects. In: presented at the IEA workshop “Sustainability certification of biofuels and bioenergy”, 29 January 2009, Brussels.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.

    “However, the worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited, because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Land is multi-functional and is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Large-scale cultivation of dedicated biomass is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, global food prices and water scarcity.

    “Large-scale cultivation of dedicated biomass is likely to affect bioenergy potentials, global food prices and water scarcity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    One of the few technologies that may result in negative emissions is the combination of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

    “One of the few technologies that may result in negative emissions is the combination of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) [7].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [7] Haszeldine, 2009, Carbon capture and storage: how green can black be, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The rise in the use of biofuels is inevitable.

    “It is concluded that the rise in the use of biofuels is inevitable and that international cooperation, regulations, certification mechanisms and sustainability criteria must be established regarding the use of land and the mitigation of environmental impacts caused by biofuel production.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Mandatory bioenergy production can lead to decreasing prices of crude oil, and thereby lead to an increase in crude oil and total energy consumption.

    “Mandatory bioenergy production can lead to decreasing prices of crude oil, and thereby lead to an increase in crude oil and total energy consumption.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [33] Barker, 2009, The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy, Energy Effic source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The Global Energy Assessment concludes a potential equal to 160-270 EJ/year in 2050.

    “Also important are the results reached in the Global Energy Assessment [13], which concludes on a potential equal to 160-270 EJ/year in 2050.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [13] GEA. Global Energy assessment – toward a sustainable future. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Laxenburg: The International Institute for Applied System Analysis; 2012.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Bioenergy currently provides roughly 10% of global supplies and accounts for roughly 80% of the energy derived from renewable sources.

    “Bioenergy currently provides roughly 10% of global supplies and accounts for roughly 80% of the energy derived from renewable sources [2].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Over the next 40 years, agricultural production will have to increase by some 60%.

    “The world's population continues to grow and, over the next 40 years, agricultural production will have to increase by some 60% [1].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [1] FAO, 2011

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The EEA foresees bioenergy to rise to around 10% by 2020, or approximately half of the projected renewable energy output, according to EU Member States' National Renewable Energy Plans.

    “This is foreseen by European Environment Agency (EEA) to rise to around 10% by 2020, or approximately half of the projected renewable energy output, according to EU Member States' National Renewable Energy Plans [35].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [35] EC. Renewable energy, national renewable energy action plans. European Commission. 〈http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/action_plan_en.htm〉; 2010.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100.

    “In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100 [20].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [20] Edenhofer, 2010, The economics of low stabilization: model comparison of mitigation strategies and costs, Energy J

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Forests are a major storage of carbon, so there is an adverse impact when forest carbon is released for the purpose of bioenergy production.

    “Forests are a major storage of carbon [22], so there is an adverse impact when forest carbon is released for the purpose of bioenergy production [23].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [22] Gumpenberger, 2010, Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses – implications for REDD, Environ Res Lett source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [23] Fargione, 2008, Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Differences in bioenergy resource assessment estimates are due to the broad variety of approaches, methodologies, assumptions and datasets.

    “The differences in bioenergy resource assessment estimates are due to the broad variety of approaches, methodologies, assumptions and datasets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The higher bioenergy potential value from an optimistic approach assumes a highly developed agricultural system, while the lower value results from a pessimistic approach with high population growth and extreme measures to avoid biodiversity loss.

    “The higher value resulting from an optimistic approach assumes a highly developed agricultural system, the lower is the result of a pessimistic approach with high population growth and extreme measures to avoid biodiversity loss [14].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [14] Berndes, 2003, The contribution of biomass in the future global energy supply: a review of 17 studies Biomass and Bioenergy

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The effect of mandatory bioenergy production on crude oil and total energy consumption is rather uncertain but could reach as much as 50% of potential gains.

    “This effect is rather uncertain, but could reach as much as 50% of potential gains [33].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [33] Barker, 2009, The macroeconomic rebound effect and the world economy, Energy Effic source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Since biomass can substitute for petrochemicals, higher oil prices will trigger new non-energy demands on bioresources.

    “Since biomass can substitute for petrochemicals too, higher oil prices will trigger new non-energy demands on bioresources as well.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Deforestation not only removes a carbon sink but is also regarded as the greatest threat to terrestrial biodiversity because forests are the most biologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems.

    “But deforestation not only removes a carbon sink, it is also regarded as the greatest threat to terrestrial biodiversity as forests are the most biologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems [24].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [24] Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends findings of the condition and trends working group. In: Hassan R, Scholes R, Ash N, editors. Washington, DC: Island Press; 2005. pp. 77–122.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Higher food, feed and fiber demand will place an increasing pressure on land and water resources.

    “Higher food, feed and fiber demand will place an increasing pressure on land and water resources, whose availability and productivity in agriculture may themselves be under threat from climate change.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In the scenario without forest conservation, bioenergy demand increases up to about 300 EJ in 2095 with a demand of about 100 EJ in 2055.

    “In the scenario without forest conservation, bioenergy demand increases up to about 300 EJ in 2095 with a demand of about 100 EJ in 2055.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy reported a range of 50-500 EJ/year for global primary bioenergy potentials around 2050.

    “Recently, the IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy [12] reported a huge range of 50-500 EJ/year.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [12] IPPC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Recent research has found that starch- and sugar-based bioenergy sources have drawbacks and has turned attention to ligno-cellulosic feedstocks.

    “Recent research has found that these bioenergy sources have their drawbacks [3,4] and turned attention to the use of ligno-cellulosic feedstocks, such as perennial grasses and short rotation woody crops for bioenergy production [5,6].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [3] Crutzen, 2008, N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels, Atmos Chem Phys

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [4] Searchinger, 2008, Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [5] Schmer, 2008, Net energy of cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [6] Melillo, 2009, Indirect emissions from biofuels: how important, Science source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The technical potential for biomass is estimated in the literature to be possibly as high as 1500 EJ/year by 2050.

    “Based on this diverse range of feedstocks, the technical potential for biomass is estimated in the literature to be possibly as high as 1500 EJ/year by 2050 [8].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [8] Smeets, 2007, A bottom-up assessment and review of global bioenergy potentials to 2050, Energy Combust Sci source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The EEA revised its estimate of potential bioenergy production in the EU first published in 2006, reducing the estimate by approximately 40%.

    “The EEA has revised its estimate of potential bioenergy production in the EU first published in 2006 [36], reducing the estimate by approximately 40% [37].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [36] EEA. How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment?, EEA Report. No 7/2006, European Environment Agency. ISBN 92–9167–849-X; 2006. 67 pp.

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [37] EEA, EU. Bioenergy potential from a resource-efficiency perspective. European Environment Agency. EEA Report No 6/2013; 2013. 60 pp. ISBN 978-92-9213-397-9 doi:10.2800/92247.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Food losses in industrialized countries are as high as in developing countries, but in developing countries more than 40% of the food losses occur at post harvest and processing levels, while in industrialized countries, more than 40% of the food losses occur at retail and consumer levels.

    “Food losses in industrialized countries are as high as in developing countries, but in developing countries more than 40% of the food losses occur at post harvest and processing levels, while in industrialized countries, more than 40% of the food losses occur at retail and consumer levels [45].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [45] FAOSTAT. FAOSTAT. Rome: FAO; 2011. 〈http://www.faostat.fao.org/default.aspx〉.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The precise quantification of greenhouse gas savings for specific systems is often hampered by lack of reliable data.

    “The precise quantification of greenhouse gas savings for specific systems is often hampered by lack of reliable data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The impacts and performance of biomass production and use are region- and site-specific.

    “The impacts and performance of biomass production and use are region-and site-specific.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Bioenergy may compete with the food sector, either directly, if food commodities are used as the energy source, or indirectly, if bioenergy crops are cultivated on soil that would otherwise be used for food production.

    “Bioenergy may compete with the food sector, either directly, if food commodities are used as the energy source, or indirectly, if bioenergy crops are cultivated on soil that would otherwise be used for food production.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given

    Results of the meta-analysis are potentially biased because studies might differ in their focus on potential or realized effects, their use of different baselines for comparisons and other background conditions.

    “Results are potentially biased because studies might differ in their focus on potential or realized effects, their use of different baselines for comparisons and other background conditions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Direct land-use change effects of bioenergy production can be controlled through certification systems, wherever biomass is grown.

    “The direct land-use change effects of bioenergy production can be controlled through certification systems, wherever biomass is grown.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Competition for land may be limited, as production of feedstocks for advanced biofuels are expected to be grown mainly outside cultivated land, and that some 100 million ha would be sufficient to achieve the target biofuel share in world transport fuels in 2050.

    “Competition for land may be limited, as production of feedstocks for advanced biofuels are expected to be grown mainly outside cultivated land, and that some 100 million ha would be sufficient to achieve the target biofuel share in world transport fuels in 2050 [49].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [49] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA; 2010.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Indirect land-use changes are more difficult to identify.

    “Indirect land-use changes, however, are more difficult to identify.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The world food security situation is steadily improving, as indicated by a consistent rise of average food consumption per capita and the progressive reduction of undernourishment in the developing world.

    “As a relevant outcome, the world food security situation is steadily improving, as indicated by a consistent rise of average food consumption per capita and the progressive reduction of undernourishment in the developing world [53].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [53] FAO, WFP, IFAD. The state of food insecurity in the World 2012. Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization; 2012.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    If current trends of agricultural intensification and livestock feeding efficiency growth are projected into the future, meeting global food demand might be achieved without reducing the amount of annual plant production remaining in ecosystems, but only in the absence of large-scale additional bioenergy production.

    “If current trends of agricultural intensification and livestock feeding efficiency growth are projected into the future, meeting global food demand might be achieved without reducing the amount of annual plant production remaining in ecosystems, but only in the absence of large-scale additional bioenergy production [40].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [40] Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Globally, an average of 35% of potential crop yield is lost to preharvest pests.

    “Globally, an average of 35% of potential crop yield is lost to preharvest pests [44].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [44] Oerke, 2006, Crop losses to pests, J Agric Sci source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Much of the grass- and woodland with potential for lignocellulosic feedstocks provides food and wood for cooking and heating to local communities, or is in use as extensive grazing ground for livestock, and only some 700 to 800 million ha of this land is suitable for economically viable lignocellulosic feedstock production.

    “However, much of this grass-and woodland provide food and wood for cooking and heating to local communities, or is in use as (extensive) grazing ground for livestock and only some 700 to 800 million ha of this land is suitable for economically viable lignocellulosic feedstock production [50].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [50] Fischer G, Hizsnyik E, Prieler S, Shah M, van Velthuizen H.. Biofuels and Food Security. The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) and International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, Austria; 2009. 228 pp.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10-25% by 2050 compared to 2005 under constant climate, but one model projects a decrease.

    “Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10-25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [54] Schmitz, 2013, Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison, Agric Econ

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Practically all bioenergy systems deliver large greenhouse gas savings if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissions including those arising due to land use change are kept low.

    “Nonetheless practically all bioenergy systems deliver large greenhouse gas savings if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissionsincluding those arising due to land use changeare kept low.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The increase in the cultivation of energy crops could conflict with the availability of land for food crops, therefore the introduction of next generation biofuels in the EU would be essential for guaranteeing energy and food security, and sufficient reduction in carbon emissions to meet the 20% target.

    “The major challenge is that the increase in the cultivation of energy crops could conflict with the availability of land for food crops, therefore the introduction of next generation biofuels in the EU would be essential for guaranteeing energy and food security, and sufficient reduction in carbon emissions to meet the 20% target.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In the scenario without forest conservation, cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops increases total cropland to 1830 million ha, but forest exclusion limits total cropland to 1520 million ha in 2095.

    “In the scenario without forest conservation, cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops increases total cropland to 1830 million ha, but forest exclusion limits total cropland to 1520 million ha in 2095.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27] Popp, 2011, The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system, Environ Res Lett source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given

    Different methods of quantification lead to variation in estimates of greenhouse gas savings.

    “Furthermore, different methods of quantification lead to variation in estimates of greenhouse gas savings.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Due to high dependence of the global food sector on fossil fuels, the volatility of energy markets can have a potentially significant impact on food prices leading to increasing food insecurity.

    “Due to high dependence of the global food sector on fossil fuels the volatility of energy markets can have a potentially significant impact on food prices leading to increasing food insecurity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    According to FAO, more than 80% of the food/feed global future demand will be fulfilled by increment in productivity.

    “According to FAO [52], more than 80% of the food/feed global future demand will be fulfilled by increment in productivity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [52] FAO. Global Agriculture Towards 2050. In: Paper Prepared by the High-Level Expert Forum for the Conference How to Feed the World by 2050. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization; 2009.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The historic time for each energy source to grow from 1 to 10 EJ in primary energy production was 12 years for nuclear, 33 years for crude oil, 39 years for natural gas, 52 years for coal, and 59 years for hydro-power.

    “The historic time for each energy source to grow from 1 to 10 EJ in primary energy production was 12 years for nuclear, 33 years for crude oil, 39 years for natural gas, 52 years for coal, and 59 years for hydro-power [59].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Due to high dependence of the global food sector on fossil fuels, the volatility of energy markets can have a potentially significant impact on food prices, and this would have serious implications for food security and sustainable development.

    “Due to high dependence of the global food sector on fossil fuels the volatility of energy markets can have a potentially significant impact on food prices, and this would have serious implications for food security and sustainable development [56].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [56] IPCC. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change (SRREN). Edenhofer O, Madruga RP, Sokona Y, editors. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2011. source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Of the total primary energy consumed in 2010, 80% was provided by fossil fuels, about 10% by bioenergy mainly from wood combustion, 5.5% from nuclear, 2.2% from hydro, and 0.4% from other renewable energy sources.

    “Of this total 80% was provided by fossil fuels, about 10% by bioenergy mainly from wood combustion, 5.5% from nuclear, 2.2% from hydro, and 0.4% from other renewable energy sources.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] IEA, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The global share of electricity from renewables in 2010 was 20%, with over 70% of electricity provided by hydropower and the rest produced using wind, solar, biomass and waste-to-power, geothermal, marine and small hydro technologies.

    “The global share of electricity from renewables in 2010 was 20%, with over 70% of electricity provided by hydropower and the rest was produced using wind, solar, biomass and waste-topower, geothermal, marine and small hydro technologies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] IEA, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Future renewable energy shares are in the range of 15-20% in conservative scenarios, 30-45% in moderate scenarios, and 50-95% in high-renewables scenarios.

    “Future renewable energy shares are in the range of 15-20% in conservative scenarios, 30-45% in moderate scenarios, and 50-95%”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [60] IEA. The Renewable Energy 2013. Medium-term market Report. A growing role for renewables in the energy mix. International Energy Agency, Paris; 2013.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    National data collection is often carried out by multiple institutions that are not always well-coordinated, or that report contradictory findings.

    “Furthermore, national data collection is often carried out by multiple institutions that are not always wellcoordinated, or that report contradictory findings.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    All energy scenarios portray a mixture of energy supply technologies combined with energy demand growth and energy efficiency improvements.

    “All energy scenarios portray a mixture of energy supply technologies combined with energy demand growth and energy efficiency improvements [60].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [60] IEA. The Renewable Energy 2013. Medium-term market Report. A growing role for renewables in the energy mix. International Energy Agency, Paris; 2013.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Large energy crop potentials can only be justified by assuming the use of a large fraction of the Earth's surface or yields far exceeding current net primary production, or both.

    “Large energy crop potentials can only be justified by assuming the use of a large fraction of the Earth's surface or yields far exceeding current net primary production, or both [10].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [10] Haberl, 2013, Bioenergy: how much can we expect for 2050, Environ Res Lett source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Traditional biomass is already a major source of energy in developing countries, primarily for heating and cooking in rural areas.

    “Traditional biomass is already a major source of energy in developing countries, primarily for heating and cooking in rural areas.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Heating accounted for the vast majority of biomass use and contributed an estimated 6-7% of total global primary energy demand.

    “Heating accounted for the vast majority of biomass use, including heat produced from modern biomass and the traditional, contributing an estimated 6-7% of total global primary energy demand.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] IEA, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Projected world primary energy demand by 2050 is expected to be in the range of 600 to 1000 EJ/year compared to about 500 EJ in 2008.

    “Projected world primary energy demand by 2050 is expected to be in the range of 600 to 1000 EJ/year compared to about 500 EJ in 2008.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The global share of biomass has remained stable over the past two decades, but in recent years a sharp decline in share can be observed in China due to rapid growth of total energy consumption and a steady increase of all types of biomass in the EU.

    “Overall, the global share of biomass has remained stable over the past two decades, but in recent years a sharp decline in share can be observed in China due to a rapid growth of total energy consumption and a steady increase of all types of biomass (for electricity, heat and biofuels) in the EU.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited because all land is multifunctional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber and fiber productions, as well as for nature conservation and climate protection.

    “The worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited because all land is multifunctional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber and fiber productions, as well as for nature conservation and climate protection.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The technical potential for biomass is estimated to be possibly as high as 1500 EJ/year by 2050.

    “Based on this diverse range of feedstocks, the technical potential for biomass is estimated to be possibly as high as 1500 EJ/year by 2050 [8].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [8] Smeets, 2007, A bottom-up assessment and review of global bioenergy potentials to 2050, Energy Combust Sci source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    Rural renewable energy markets show significant diversity, with levels of electrification, access to clean cookstoves, financing models, actors, and support policies varying greatly among countries and regions.

    “Rural renewable energy markets show significant diversity, with the levels of electrification, access to clean cookstoves, financing models, actors, and support policies varying greatly among countries and regions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Useful heat energy from modern renewable sources accounted for an estimated 4.1% of total final energy use; hydropower made up about 3.7%; and an estimated 1.9% was provided by power from wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, and by biofuels.

    “Useful heat energy from modern renewable sources accounted for an estimated 4.1% of total final energy use; hydropower made up about 3.7%; and an estimated 1.9% was provided by power from wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, and by biofuels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] IEA, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    There are large uncertainties in this potential, such as market and policy conditions, and there is a strong dependence on the rate of improvements in the agricultural sector for food, fodder and fiber productions and forest products.

    “However, there are large uncertainties in this potential, such as market and policy conditions, and there is a strong dependence on the rate of improvements in the agricultural sector for food, fodder and fiber productions and forest products.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Attaining high shares of electricity is considered easiest, high shares of heating/cooling is the most difficult, and high shares of transport energy the most uncertain.

    “Attaining high shares of electricity is considered easiest, high shares of heating/cooling is the most difficult, and high shares of transport energy the most uncertain.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    Modern biomass consumption contributed an estimated 3-4% of global primary energy.

    “The total volume of modern biomass consumption contributed an estimated 3-4% of global primary energy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Biomass markets often rely on informal structures, which make it difficult to formally track data and trends.

    “Biomass markets often rely on informal structures, which make it difficult to formally track data and trends.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    Future trends in developing countries continue with a shift away from traditional biomass cookstoves to more modern forms of stoves and fuels.

    “The future trends in developing countries continue with a shift away from traditional biomass cookstoves to more modern forms of stoves and fuels, including efficient biomass cookstoves and stoves that burn biogas or biofuels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Government-driven electrification and grid extension programmes are still being adopted across the developing world.

    “Government-driven electrification and grid extension programmes are still being adopted across the developing world.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Any increase in the use of fossil fuels to boost production will lead to greater GHG emissions, which the global community has pledged to reduce.

    “Furthermore, any increase in the use of fossil fuels to boost production will lead to greater GHG emissions, which the global community has pledged to reduce [57].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [57] FAO, Energy-smart food for people and climate. Issue paper. Rome: FAO; 2011 〈http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/i2454e/i2454e00.pdf〉

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The energy efficiency of photosynthesis is usually <1% under field conditions, far below the efficiency of commercial solar photovoltaic cells of 12-20%.

    “The energy efficiency of photosynthesis is usually o1% under field conditions [63] far below the efficiency of commercial solar photovoltaic cells of 12-20% [64].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [63] Larcher, 2003

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [64] IPCC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Energy consumption is still increasing rapidly, with an approximate 540 EJ consumed at the primary energy level in 2010.

    “Energy consumption is still increasing rapidly, with an approximate 540 EJ consumed at the primary energy level in 2010 [58].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] IEA, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The global harvest of major crops corresponds to about 60 EJ/year and the global industrial roundwood production corresponds to 15 to 20 EJ/year.

    “The global harvest of major crops (cereals, oil crops, sugar crops, roots, tubers and pulses) corresponds to about 60 EJ/year and the global industrial roundwood production corresponds to 15 to 20 EJ/year [45].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [45] FAOSTAT. FAOSTAT. Rome: FAO; 2011. 〈http://www.faostat.fao.org/default.aspx〉.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    For food, and many fiber and wood products, people have no alternative to using plants, but for energy the detour via photosynthesis may in many cases result in exceedingly high land demand.

    “For food, and many fiber and wood products, people have no alternative to using plants, but for energy the detour via photosynthesis may in many cases result in exceedingly high land demand.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Biomass accounts for about 10% of global primary energy supply (54 EJ in 2010) and is the world's fourth largest source of energy (following oil, coal, and natural gas).

    “Biomass accounts for about 10% of global primary energy supply (54 EJ in 2010) and is the world's fourth largest source of energy (following oil, coal, and natural gas).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] IEA, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    On a global basis, renewable energy accounted for 13% of the total 492 EJ or 12,300 million t oil equivalent of primary energy supply in 2008.

    “On a global basis, it is estimated that renewable energy accounted for 13% of the total 492 EJ (Exajoules)foot_1 or 12,300 million t oil equivalent (Mt) of primary energy supply in 2008 [58].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] IEA, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    Technological progress advanced the use of renewables in rural heating and cooking sectors.

    “Technological progress also advanced the use of renewables in the rural heating and cooking sectors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Current world primary energy supply is about 500 EJ/year.

    “which can be compared to the current world primary energy supply of about 500 EJ/year [2].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [2] IEA Bioenergy. A sustainable and reliable energy source. Main Report. Paris: International Energy Agency; 2009.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Short-rotation energy crops currently provide about 3-4% of the total biomass resource consumed annually.

    “Shortrotation energy crops, grown on agricultural land specifically for energy purposes, currently provide about 3-4% of the total biomass resource consumed annually [58].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] IEA, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The world gets about 19% of its energy from renewables, including about 9.3% from traditional biomass and about 9.7% from modern renewables.

    “The world gets about 19% of its energy from renewables, including about 9.3% from traditional biomass and about 9.7% from modern renewables (Fig. 2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [58] IEA, 2012 source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Premisenone given

    In 2012 the United States was the world's largest producer of biofuels, followed by Brazil and the European Union.

    “In 2012 the United States was the world's largest producer of biofuels,”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In the case of residues, opportunity costs can occur, and the scattered distribution of residues may render it difficult in some places to recover them.

    “In the case of residues, opportunity costs can occur, and the scattered distribution of residues may render it difficult in some places to recover them [49].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [49] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA; 2010.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    China also made progress on advanced biofuels in 2012, with around 3 million liters of ethanol produced from corn cobs and used in blends with gasoline.

    “China also made progress on advanced biofuels in 2012, with around 3 million liters of ethanol produced from corn cobs and used in blends with gasoline.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Limited biomass resources will be allocated to the sector (materials, chemicals, and energy) that is most able to afford them.

    “Limited biomass resources will be allocated to the sector (materials, chemicals, and energy) that is most able to afford them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The bioenergy potential in 2030 represents around 15-16% of the projected primary energy requirements of the EU-25 in 2030 compared to a 4% share of bioenergy in 2003 and to a 8.5% share in 2010.

    “The bioenergy potential in 2030 represents around 15-16% of the projected primary energy requirements of the EU-25 in 2030 compared to a 4% share of bioenergy in 2003 and to a 8.5% share in 2010.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Using organic waste and agricultural or forestry residues as feedstock is more resource efficient than many other types of feedstock, as it does not add pressure on land and water resources and offers very high greenhouse gas savings.

    “Using organic waste and agricultural or forestry residues as feedstock is more resource efficient than many other types of feedstock, as it does not add pressure on land and water resources and offers very high greenhouse gas savings.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    In bioenergy systems, the solar radiation is naturally stored as chemical energy in the biomass and further in the biofuel, allowing full dispatchability.

    “In bioenergy systems, the solar radiation is naturally stored as chemical energy in the biomass and further in the biofuel, allowing full dispatchability.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In 2012, the U.S. produced 51 billion liters of ethanol and accounted for 60% of global production.

    “In 2012, it produced 51 billion liters of ethanol and accounted for 60% of global production.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Different energy cropping systems can vary hugely in their productivity, as well as in environmental impacts.

    “Different energy cropping systems can vary hugely in their productivity, as well as in environmental impacts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    Liquid biofuels currently provide about 3% (2.6 EJ) of global road transport fuels.

    “Liquid biofuels continue to make a small but growing contribution to transport fuel demand worldwide, currently providing about 3% (2.6 EJ) of global road transport fuels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    In the EU final energy consumption is about 50 EJ/year with a 8.5% share of bioenergy.

    “In the EU final energy consumption is about 50 EJ/year with a 8.5% share of bioenergy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    During 2012 in Germany the share of biomethane in natural gas increased from 6% to more than 15%, and the number of fueling stations selling 100% biomethane more than tripled.

    “During 2012 in Germany the share of biomethane in natural gas increased from 6% to more than 15%, and the number of fueling stations selling 100% biomethane more than tripled.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Whatever is actually realised will depend on the cost competitiveness of bioenergy and on future policy frameworks, such as greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.

    “Whatever is actually realised will depend on the cost competitiveness of bioenergy and on future policy frameworks, such as greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    It will also depend on factors such as cost of alternative fuel and energy sources, government policies including excise rates, and the emission intensity of each sector.

    “It will also depend on factors such as cost of alternative fuel and energy sources, government policies including excise rates, and the emission intensity of each sector.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    In 2012 global fuel ethanol production reached 86 billion liters, global biodiesel production amounted to 18 million t, or 20 billion liters.

    “In 2012 global fuel ethanol production reached 86 billion liters, global biodiesel production amounted to 18 million t, or 20 billion liters (Figs. 4 and 5).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Liquid biofuels are seeing small but increasing use in the aviation and marine sectors.

    “They also are seeing small but increasing use in the aviation and marine sectors [69].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [69] 2011

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Availability of land for non-food crops will be determined by increased yield potential, reducing losses and wastes along the food chain and lower inputs.

    “Availability of land for non-food crops will be determined by increased yield potential, reducing losses and wastes along the food chain and lower inputs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Further, 10% of the natural gas vehicles in Germany used compressed biomethane fuel instead of compressed natural gas methane.

    “Further, 10% of the natural gas vehicles in Germany used compressed biomethane fuel instead of compressed natural gas methane [75].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [75] Müller C. Biomethane in the Fast Lane, German Energy Agency (DENA), 27 March 2013, At: 〈www.dena.de/presse-medien/pressemitteilungen/biomethan-auf-der-ueberholspur.html〉

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    These volumes will remain limited relative to total energy and transport sector fuel demand.

    “However, these volumes will remain limited relative to total energy and transport sector fuel demand.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The study [37] concludes that significant amounts of biomass can technically be available to support ambitious renewable energy targets, even if strict environmental constraints are applied.

    “The study [37] concludes that significant amounts of biomass can technically be available to support ambitious renewable energy targets, even if strict environmental constraints are applied.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [37] EEA, EU. Bioenergy potential from a resource-efficiency perspective. European Environment Agency. EEA Report No 6/2013; 2013. 60 pp. ISBN 978-92-9213-397-9 doi:10.2800/92247.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Aviation is responsible for 2% man made CO2 emissions and produces 8% of global GDP.

    “Aviation is responsible for 2% man made CO 2 emissions and produces 8% of global GDP.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning

    The allocation of limited biomass resources will depend on the price of existing fossil fuel products and the relative cost of converting biomass into substitute final fuels such as bio-derived electricity, ethanol blends, biodiesel and bioderived jet fuel.

    “This will depend on the price of existing fossil fuel products and the relative cost of converting biomass into substitute final fuels such as bio-derived electricity, ethanol blends, biodiesel and bioderived jet fuel.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Generating electricity by burning pure biomass is only approximately 30-35% efficient, while burning the same material to produce heat is usually more than 85% efficient.

    “For example, generating electricity by burning pure biomass is only approximately 30-35% efficient, while burning the same material to produce heat is usually more than 85% efficient.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    China, at 2.1 billion liters, remained Asia's largest ethanol producer.

    “China, at 2.1 billion liters, remained Asia's largest ethanol producer [73].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [73] Lane J. IEA says cellulosic biofuels capacity has tripled since 2010, International Energy Agency, New Task 39 global report, Biofuels Digest, 5 April 2013, 〈www.biofuelsdigest.com〉.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Farm and community-scale biogas plants continue to be manufactured and installed for treating wet waste biomass products, especially in Europe where almost 12,000 plants operated in 2012.

    “Farm and community-scale biogas plants continue to be manufactured and installed for treating wet waste biomass products, especially in Europe where almost 12,000 plants operated in 2012.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Reaching such a level of supply would require roughly a doubling of global biomass harvest in less than four decades and would result in massive increases in humanity's pressures on land ecosystems.

    “Reaching such a level of supply would require roughly a doubling of global biomass harvest in less than four decades and would result in massive increases in humanity's pressures on land ecosystems [66].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [66] Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    In Brazil fuel ethanol production reached 21 billion liters and in the EU 4.3 billion liters in 2012.

    “In Brazil fuel ethanol production reached 21 billion liters and in the EU 4.3 billion liters in 2012.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    Global biodiesel production amounted to 18 million t (20.5 billion liters) in 2012.

    “Global biodiesel production amounted to 18 million t (20.5 billion liters) in 2012.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Large-scale promotion of bioenergy could result in economic incentives to divert land from food production to bioenergy which puts the world's poor at risk, driving up hunger and inequality.

    “Large-scale promotion of bioenergy could result in economic incentives to divert land from food production to bioenergy which puts the world's poor at risk, driving up hunger and inequality.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    Currently, around 80% of the global production of liquid biofuels is in the form of ethanol.

    “Currently, around 80% of the global production of liquid biofuels is in the form of ethanol.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The transport sector is responsible for about 20% of world primary energy demand.

    “The transport sector is responsible for about 20% of world primary energy demand.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisereasoning

    The two world's top ethanol producers, the U.S. and Brazil, accounted for around 85% of total production.

    “The two world's top ethanol producers, the U.S. and Brazil, accounted for around 85% of total production.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Production of both ethanol and biodiesel is increasing rapidly in Asia.

    “However, production of both ethanol and biodiesel is increasing rapidly in Asia.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The European Union remained the center of global biodiesel production, with 7.9 million t liters and representing 43% of total output in 2012.

    “The European Union remained the center of global biodiesel production, with 7.9 million t liters and representing 43% of total output in 2012.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Given biospheric constraints, it seems impossible that bioenergy could physically provide more than 250 EJ/year in 2050, substantially below many published bioenergy projections.

    “Given the biospheric constraints outlined above, it seems impossible that bioenergy could physically provide more than 250 EJ/year in 2050 [9,65,66], substantially below many published bioenergy projections.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [9] Haberl, 2010, The global technical potential of bio-energy in 2050 considering sustainability constraints, Curr Opin Environ Sustain source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [65] Smith, 2012, Global bioenergy capacity as constrained by observed biospheric productivity rates, BioScience source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [66] Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In addition, 2250 sewage sludge facilities are operating in Europe; approximately 2% of these plants upgrade the biogas to higher-quality biomethane for use as a vehicle fuel or for injection into the gas grid.

    “In addition, 2250 sewage sludge facilities are operating in Europe; approximately 2% of these plants upgrade the biogas to higher-quality biomethane for use as a vehicle fuel or for injection into the gas grid [74].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [74] Downing L. Rising trend: poop powers ski resorts and water treatment center in Europe, RenewableEnergyWorld.com, 20 February 2013.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A total of 1553 Mha of land was in use for agricultural production in 2011, it was 1371 Mha in 1961, an increase of 182 Mha in 50 years over pastures, deforested and degraded lands.

    “a total of 1553 Mha of land was in use for agricultural production in 2011, it was 1371 Mha in 1961, an increase of 182 Mha in 50 years over pastures, deforested (in some cases) and degraded lands [68].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [68] FAOSTAT (2012) World Agricultural Harvested Are. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization; 2011.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The countries with the largest estimated agricultural bioenergy potential in 2020 are France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland and Romania.

    “The countries with the largest estimated agricultural bioenergy potential in 2020 are France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland and Romania.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    In 2012, U.S. production of advanced biofuels from lignocellulosic feedstocks reached 2 million liters, however, these volume remains only a small proportion of the original U.S. mandate under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) that was subsequently waived.

    “In 2012, U.S. production of advanced biofuels from lignocellulosic feedstocks reached 2 million liters, however, these volume remains only a small proportion of the original U.S. mandate under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) that was subsequently waived.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The total annual capacity of the approximately 650 ethanol plants operating globally is around 100 billion litres, but many facilities are operating below nameplate capacity and others have closed due to fluctuating demand and concerns about the environmental sustainability of the product.

    “The total annual capacity of the approximately 650 ethanol plants operating globally is around 100 billion litres, but many facilities are operating below nameplate capacity and others have closed due to fluctuating demand and concerns about the environmental sustainability of the product.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The IEA (2012) found that projections for biofuels in aviation ranged from a few percent to 30% by 2050.

    “The IEA (2012) found that projections for biofuels in aviation ranged from a few percent to 30% by 2050 [76].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [76] IEA, 2012

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Biodiesel accounted for the vast majority of biofuels consumed in the EU, but growth in the region continued to slow.

    “Biodiesel accounted for the vast majority of biofuels consumed in the EU, but growth in the region continued to slow.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Without forest conservation, bioenergy demand increases up to about 300 EJ in 2095 with a demand of about 100 EJ in 2055.

    “Without forest conservation, bioenergy demand increases up to about 300 EJ in 2095 with a demand of about 100 EJ in 2055.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Compliance with international fuel quality standards will ensure vehicle and infrastructure compatibility among different regions and promote consumer acceptance for new fuels.

    “This will ensure vehicle and infrastructure compatibility among different regions and promote consumer acceptance for new fuels.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Given the technical approval (ASTM D7566) of the 50% biofuel/kerosene mix in 2012 there has certainly been a noticeable increase in interest, and a forecast in the UK Sustainable Aviation Roadmap that by 2050 sustainable biofuels will contribute an 18% reduction in aviation emissions.

    “Given the technical approval (ASTM D7566) of the 50% biofuel/kerosene mix in 2012 there has certainly been a noticeable increase in interest, and a forecast in the UK Sustainable Aviation Roadmap that by 2050 sustainable biofuels will contribute an 18% reduction in aviation emissions [77].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [77] Green Aviation. Aviation progressing rapidly on biofuels; 2013. 〈http://greenaviation.org/〉

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    The EU is not bound by the Chicago Convention because it is not a party to that convention.

    “The EU is not bound by the Chicago Convention because it is not a party to that convention.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Pelletisation, pyrolysis or torrefaction will become increasingly important because they increase the energy density and thus tradability of lignocellulosic feedstocks.

    “Pelletisation, pyrolysis or torrefaction will become increasingly important since they increase the energy density and thus tradability of lignocellulosic feedstocks (e.g.residues).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Over 40 years the focus on innovation has led to 70% reduced aviation fuel consumption and related CO2 emissions.

    “Over 40 years the focus on innovation has led to 70% reduced aviation fuel consumption and related CO 2 emissions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Only advanced biofuels, particularly from agricultural wastes and from crops on marginal lands like switch grass, would ensure future sustainability.

    “Only advanced biofuels, particularly from agricultural wastes and from crops on marginal lands like switch grass, would ensure future sustainability.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Compliance with international fuel quality standards is a key requirement for all biofuels to get access to the market.

    “A key requirement for all biofuels to get access to the market will be compliance with international fuel quality standards.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Backward compatibility of fuel changes is a very difficult issue because it is extremely difficult to cover all vehicle generations and models, combined with reliability risks for customers and a risk for vehicle manufacturers in meeting legal commitments, and it is costly.

    “Backward compatibility of fuel changes is a very difficult issue because it is extremely difficult to cover all the vehicle generations and models combined with reliability risks for the customers and a risk for vehicle manufacturers in meeting legal commitments (CO 2 emissions) and furthermore it is costly.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The passenger vehicle fleet will double to 1.7 billion in 2035.

    “The passenger vehicle fleet will double to 1.7 billion in 2035 [70].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [70] BNEF, 2012

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    Spending on new renewable energy capacity will total $7 trillion over the next 20 years.

    “Spending on new renewable energy capacity will total $7 trillion over the next 20 years.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    In 2011 American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) gave the airlines the go-ahead to incorporate biofuels into as much as 50% of the total fuel they use on passenger flights.

    “In 2011 American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), an international standards organization gave the airlines the go-ahead to incorporate biofuels into as much as 50% of the total fuel they use on passenger flights.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The solar and wind sectors will continue to expand with a combined share of 70% in total money spent on renewable energy projects but biofuel is projected to reach a share of just 8% or US $510 billion in total spending.

    “The solar and wind sectors will continue to expand with a combined share of 70% in total money spent on renewable energy projects but biofuel is projected to reach a share of just 8% or US $510 billion in total spending.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) transposition in several member states only includes incentives for ground transport.

    “In the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) transposition in several member states only includes incentives for ground transport.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    British Airways (BA) and Solena produce a waste-to-biofuels plant in East London, or nearby, with several potential sites identified in the area.

    “British Airways (BA) and Solena produce a waste-to-biofuels plant in East London, or nearby, with several potential sites identified in the area.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Outside of Europe, a diverse group of at least 20 other countries target energy shares in the 2020-2030 time frame that range from 10% to 50%, including Algeria, China, Indonesia, Jamaica, Jordan, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Samoa, Senegal, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, and Vietnam.

    “Outside of Europe, a diverse group of at least 20 other countries target energy shares in the 2020-2030 time frame that range from 10% to 50%, including Algeria, China, Indonesia, Jamaica, Jordan, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Samoa, Senegal, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, and Vietnam [59].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Global investment in renewable energy decreased in 2012, but investment expanded significantly in developing countries.

    “Global investment in renewable energy decreased in 2012, but investment expanded significantly in developing countries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    To be included in the 10% target, GHG emission savings from the use of biofuels and bioliquids should be at least 35%, compared to fossil fuels.

    “Direct GHG emissions have been subject of intense discussion, resulting in the restriction that, to be included in the 10% target, GHG emission savings from the use of biofuels and bioliquids should be at least 35%, compared to fossil fuels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    About 30 countries were getting 20% or more of their total energy from renewables, and some as high as 50%.

    “About 30 countries were getting 20% or more of their total energy from renewables, and some as high as 50%.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Only direct LUC emission is accounted and indirect LUC emission is not calculated.

    “Only direct LUC emission is accounted and indirect LUC emission is not calculated.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    In 2011 Boeing announced the launch of a partnership with the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels called the Sustainable Biomass Consortium (SBC), a research initiative focused on increasing collaboration between voluntary standards and regulatory requirements for biomass used to create jet fuel and bioenergy for other sectors.

    “In 2011 Boeing, an active Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (RSB) member, announced the launch of a partnership with the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels called the Sustainable Biomass Consortium (SBC), a research initiative focused on increasing collaboration between voluntary standards and regulatory requirements for biomass used to create jet fuel and bioenergy for other sectors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Wide-spread blending of usual market fuel with bio-components ideally requires 100% backwards compatibility with vehicle stock.

    “Lesson learned from the experience in Germany is that wide spread blending of usual market fuel with bio-components ideally requires 100% backwards compatibility with vehicle stock.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    Some countries have long-term policy targets that will put them squarely in the high renewables domain by 2030 or 2050, such as Denmark (100%) and Germany (60%).

    “Some countries have long-term policy targets that will put them squarely in the “high renewables” domain by 2030 or 2050, such as Denmark (100%) and Germany (60%).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    At least 5 years lead-time should enable the car industry to adapt to new fuel standards.

    “At least 5 years lead-time should enable car industry to adapt to new fuel standards.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Biomass and biofuel markets have globalized over the last decades but are still immature and face tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers leading to radical and mostly undesired shifts in international trade flows.

    “Biomass and biofuel markets have globalized over the last decades but are still immature and face tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers leading to radical and mostly undesired shifts in international trade flows.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The annual value of renewable energy capacity installed will double in real terms to $395 billion in 2020, rising to $460 billion in 2030, compared with $195 billion in 2010 according to analysis company Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

    “The annual value of renewable energy capacity installed will double in real terms to $395 billion in 2020, rising to $460 billion in 2030, compared with $195 billion in 2010according to analysis company Bloomberg New Energy Finance [80].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [80] BNEF. Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook. Bloomberg New Energy Finance; 2011. 〈https://www.bnef.com/PressReleases/view/173〉

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Exclusion of aviation prevents a level playing field with road transport.

    “Exclusion of aviation prevents a level playing field with road transport.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    They certified advanced biofuels as meeting the ASTM International specification for bio-derived aviation fuels, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) fuel.

    “They certified advanced biofuels as meeting the ASTM International specification for bio-derived aviation fuels, “Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids” (HEFA) fuel [77].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [77] Green Aviation. Aviation progressing rapidly on biofuels; 2013. 〈http://greenaviation.org/〉

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Some 120 countries around the world have some type of policy and/or target to promote renewable energy, more than two-thirds of which are developing countries or emerging economies.

    “Some 120 countries around the world have some type of policy and/or target to promote renewable energy, more than twothirds of which are developing countries or emerging economies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Electric vehicles seem to be viable for light vehicles and short distances.

    “They seem to be viable for light vehicles and short distances [72].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [72] Licht FO. World ethanol and biofuel Report (vol. 10, no. 9). London: Agra Informa; 2013.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    At least 138 countries had renewable energy targets by the end of 2012.

    “At least 138 countries had renewable energy targets by the end of 2012.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In Europe, 1116 new cities and towns joined the Covenant of Mayors in 2012, committing to a 20% CO2 reduction target and to plans for climate mitigation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy.

    “In Europe, 1116 new cities and towns joined the Covenant of Mayors in 2012, committing to a 20% CO 2 reduction target and to plans for climate mitigation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy [59].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Mandatory bioenergy production can lead to decreasing prices of crude oil, and thereby eventually lead to an increase in crude oil and total energy consumption.

    “Mandatory bioenergy production can lead to decreasing prices of crude oil, and thereby eventually lead to an increase in crude oil and total energy consumption.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Renewable energy support policies were identified in 127 countries, more than two-thirds of which are developing countries or emerging economies.

    “Renewable energy support policies were identified in 127 countries, more than two-thirds of which are developing countries or emerging economies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The investment will be $350 million and initially produce enough fuel per day to fill 80 tanker trucks.

    “The investment will be $350 million and initially produce enough fuel per day to fill 80 tanker trucks.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Investment in renewable power and fuels (including small hydro-electric projects) was $244 billion in 2012, down 12% from the previous year's record figure of $279 billion.

    “Investment in renewable power and fuels (including small hydro-electric projects) was $244 billion in 2012, down 12% from the previous year's record figure of $279 billion.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Despite increasing pressure in major markets such as Europe and the United States, due to growing debate over the overall sustainability of first generation biofuels, regulatory policies promoting the use of biofuels existed in at least 49 countries in 2012.

    “Despite increasing pressure in major markets such as Europe and the United States, due to growing debate over the overall sustainability of first generation biofuels, regulatory policies promoting the use of biofuels existed in at least 49 countries in 2012 [59].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [59] REN21. Renewables 2013 Global Status Report. Paris: REN21 Secretariat; 2013. p. 177. ISBN 978-3-9815934-0-2.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    This represents around 2% of BA's fuel needs in the London area and this initial batch will be used exclusively at the nearby London City airport.

    “This represents around 2% of BA's fuel needs in the London area and this initial batch will be used exclusively at the nearby London City airport.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Lufthansa has a partnership with Finnish company Neste and is using a 50% biofuel/kerosene mix on all flights of one dedicated A320 aircraft between Frankfurt and Hamburg for several months, with no adverse events and no apparent differences in engine performance or exhaust deposits.

    “Lufthansa has a partnership with Finnish company Neste and is using a 50% biofuel/kerosene mix on all flights of one dedicated A320 aircraft between Frankfurt and Hamburg for several months, with no adverse events and no apparent differences in engine performance or exhaust deposits [77].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [77] Green Aviation. Aviation progressing rapidly on biofuels; 2013. 〈http://greenaviation.org/〉

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The roadmap of the European Commission in 2011 gave a positive signal with clear milestones which targets an annual production of 2 million t of sustainably produced biofuel (4% of EU fuel consumption) for aviation by 2020.

    “The roadmap of the European Commission in 2011 gave a positive signal with clear milestones which targets an annual production of 2 million t of sustainably produced biofuel (4% of EU fuel consumption) for aviation by 2020.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    In contrast to Brazil and Sweden, there are no significant incentives for customers to buy flex-fuel vehicles because the production costs of ethanol exceed gasoline costs.

    “In contrast to Brazil (and Sweden) there are no significant incentives for customers to buy FFVs because the production costs of ethanol exceed gasoline costs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisereasoning

    The Court concluded by stating that the uniform application of the scheme to all flights which depart from or arrive at a European airport is consistent with the provisions of the Open Skies Agreement designed to prohibit discriminatory treatment between American and European operators.

    “The Court concluded by stating that the uniform application of the scheme to all flights which depart from or arrive at a European airport is consistent with the provisions of the Open Skies Agreement designed to prohibit discriminatory treatment between American and European operators.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Scale and efficiency improvements will reduce biofuel production costs over time.

    “Scale and efficiency improvements will reduce biofuel production costs over time.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Most policies to support renewable energy target the power sector, with feed-in tariffs (FITs) and renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) used most frequently.

    “Most policies to support renewable energy target the power sector, with feed-in tariffs (FITs) and renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) used most frequently.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Biofuel blend mandates were identified at the national level in 27 countries and in 27 states/provinces.

    “Biofuel blend mandates were identified at the national level in 27 countries and in 27 states/ provinces.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Vehicle compatibility less than 100% requires compatibility lists, which is a politically very complicated process.

    “Vehicle compatibility less than 100% requires compatibility lists, which is a politically very complicated process.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Renewable energy is spreading to new regions and countries and becoming increasingly affordable in developing and developed countries alike.

    “Renewable energy is spreading to new regions and countries and becoming increasingly affordable in developing and developed countries alike [79].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [79] BNEF Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2013, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2013. Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF; 2013. 〈http://www.fs-unep-centre.org〉

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The development of international markets for bioenergy has become an essential driver to develop available biomass resources and market potential, which are currently underutilized in many world regions.

    “The development of international markets for bioenergy has become an essential driver to develop available biomass resources and market potential, which are currently underutilized in many world regions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Bio-methane, fuelwood, charcoal, briquettes, and agricultural residues are mainly traded locally, whereas wood pellets, wood chips, biodiesel, and ethanol are traded both nationally and internationally.

    “Bio-methane, fuelwood, charcoal, briquettes, and agricultural residues are mainly traded locally; whereas wood pellets, wood chips, biodiesel, and ethanol are traded both nationally and internationally [82].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [82] Lamers P, Marchal D, Schouwenberg PP, Cocchi M, Junginger M. Global Wood ChipTrade for Energy. IEA Bioenergy, Task 40; 2012.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    After 2020, lignocellulosic feedstock trade is likely to grow rapidly and supply large advanced biofuel plants in coastal locations.

    “In the short term, trade will include conventional biofuels and feedstocks, but after 2020, lignocellulosic feedstock trade is likely to grow rapidly and supply large advanced biofuel plants in coastal locations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In the end of 2011 the European Court of Justice confirmed the validity of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) directive that includes aviation activities in the emissions trading scheme since.

    “In the end of 2011 the European Court of Justice confirmed the validity of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) directive that includes aviation activities in the emissions trading scheme since.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    There is a loophole as only direct LUC emission is accounted and indirect LUC emission is not calculated.

    “However, there is a loophole as only direct LUC emission is accounted and indirect LUC emission is not calculated.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Vehicle efficiency improvements account for one-third of emissions reduction in the transport sector; the use of biofuels is the second-largest contributor, together with electrification of the fleet accounting for 20% (2.1 Gt CO2-equivalent) of emissions saving.

    “Vehicle efficiency improvements account for one-third of emissions reduction in the transport sector; the use of biofuels is the second-largest contributor, together with electrification of the fleet accounting for 20% (2.1 Gt CO 2 -equivalent) of emissions saving [86].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [86] IEA, 2010

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The availability of CCS technology is still uncertain and not yet proven on a large scale.

    “However, with respect to the importance of CCS for the contribution of bioenergy to climate change mitigation one needs to consider that the availability of this technology is still uncertain and not yet proven on a large scale.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Changes in land use, principally those associated with deforestation and expansion of agricultural production for food, contribute about 15% of global emissions of GHG.

    “Changes in land use, principally those associated with deforestation and expansion of agricultural production for food, contribute about 15% of global emissions of GHG.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Development of standards or criteria will push bioenergy production to lower emissions and higher efficiency than today's systems.

    “Development of standards or criteria will push bioenergy production to lower emissions and higher efficiency than today's systems.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    The transport sector is currently responsible for 23% of energy-related CO2 emissions.

    “The transport sector is currently responsible for 23% of energyrelated CO 2 emissions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In 2010, the EPA designated Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an advanced biofuel due to its 61% reduction of total life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, including direct and indirect land use change emissions.

    “In 2010, the EPA designated Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an advanced biofuel due to its 61% reduction of total life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, including direct indirect land use change emissions [85].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [85] UNICA. EPA reaffirms sugarcane biofuel is advanced renewable fuel with 61% less emissions than gasoline; 2010. 〈http://english.unica.com.br/releases/show.asp?rls〉

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    This substitution reduces the indirect land use and therefore the impact of indirect land use change and intensification is substantially reduced.

    “This substitution reduces the indirect land use and therefore the impact of indirect land use change and intensification is substantially.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    DDGS can be used to replace some soybean meal as well as corn in livestock and poultry rations.

    “DDGS can be used to replace some soybean meal as well as corn in livestock and poultry rations.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Digestive systems of hogs and poultry are less suited for feeding high levels of DDGS, although it can be used at up to 15% to 20% of their rations.

    “Digestive systems of hogs and poultry are less suited for feeding high levels of DDGS, although it can be used at up to 15% to 20% of their rations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The set of sustainability criteria for biofuels in the Renewable Energy Directive and the Fuel Quality Directive does not cover all issues and there is no guarantee for sustainability.

    “But this set of criteria does not cover all issues and there is no guarantee for sustainability.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    About 90% of DDGS is used in the ruminant sector and only 10% in the hog and poultry sectors.

    “About 90% of DDGS is used in the ruminant sector and only 10% in the hog and poultry sectors [90].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [90] Hoffmann LA, Baker A. Estimating the Substitution of Distillers׳ Grains for Corn and Soybean Meal in the U.S. Feed Complex / FDS-11-I-01, Washington D.C. Economic Research Service/USDA; 2011. 〈http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/236568/fds11i01_2_.pdf〉.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Restrictions on land availability, by protecting untouched tropical forests and other high-carbon ecosystems, are likely to reduce bioenergy potentials significantly in the medium run, but less so in the long run.

    “Restrictions on land availability, by protecting untouched tropical forests and other high-carbon ecosystems, are likely to reduce bioenergy potentials significantly in the medium run, but less so in the long run.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Bioenergy from dedicated ligno-cellulosic energy crops is likely to be a cost-efficient contribution to the future energy mix.

    “Bioenergy from dedicated ligno-cellulosic energy crops is likely to be a cost-efficient contribution to the future energy mix.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Advanced biofuels and cellulosic biofuels must demonstrate that they meet minimum GHG reduction standards of 50% and 60% respectively, based on a life-cycle assessment including indirect land-use change, in comparison with the petroleum fuels they displace.

    “Advanced biofuels and cellulosic biofuels must demonstrate that they meet minimum GHG reduction standards of 50% and 60% respectively, based on a life-cycle assessment (including indirect land-use change) in comparison with the petroleum fuels they displace.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Practically all bioenergy systems deliver large GHG savings if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissions, including those arising due to land use change, are kept low.

    “Nonetheless practically all bioenergy systems deliver large GHG savings if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissionsincluding those arising due to land use changeare kept low.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Bioenergy systems replace fossil-based energy and bioenergy production emissions, including those arising due to land use change, are kept low.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    An increase in the supply of animal feed from co-products could lead to a decrease in prices for animal feed, and subsequently to an increase in consumption of meat and dairy products.

    “An increase in the supply of this animal feed from coproducts could lead to a decrease in prices for animal feed, and subsequently to an increase in consumption of meat and dairy products.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In order to count towards the RED target, biofuels must provide 35% GHG emissions saving compared to fossil fuels.

    “In order to count towards the RED target, biofuels must provide 35% GHG emissions saving compared to fossil fuels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for the Renewable Fuel Standard program.

    “In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for the Renewable Fuel Standard program [84].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [84] EPA. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Regulations & Standards United States Environmental Protection Agency; 2013. 〈http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/documents/420f13005.pdf〉.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    These values do not include the impact of land use change (LUC), which can have a considerable negative impact on the lifecycle emissions of advanced biofuels and also negatively impact biodiversity.

    “However, these values do not include the impact of land use change (LUC) 3 that can have considerable negative impact on the lifecycle emissions of advanced biofuels and also negatively impact biodiversity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Indirect GHG emissions bear a scientific uncertainty and vary in time.

    “Furthermore, indirect GHG emissions bear a scientific uncertainty and vary in time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The most efficient energy use of biomass is for heating and electricity as well as advanced biofuels, also called second generation biofuels.

    “The most efficient energy use of biomass is for heating and electricity as well as advanced biofuels, also called second generation biofuels.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The use of bioenergy resources and biomass trade would generally contribute to the diversification of the energy mix.

    “The use of bioenergy resources and biomass trade would generally contribute to the diversification of the energy mix.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    This might lead to extra emissions equal to 10-40% of the fossil fuel emissions.

    “This might lead to extra emissions equal to 10-40% of the fossil fuel emissions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    There are no serious limits to biomass production because of the huge resources available from agricultural and forest wastes, and from new approaches to growing biomass crops on surplus land.

    “On the other hand there are no serious limits because of the huge resources available from agricultural and forest wastes, and from new approaches to growing biomass crops on surplus land.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Bioenergy can have positive and negative ecological and environmental impacts, and the overall net impact can be either positive or negative.

    “Bioenergy can have positive and negative ecological and environmental impacts, and the overall net impact can be either positive or negative.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Indirect effects on biodiversity are strongly related to land conversion.

    “Indirect effects on biodiversity are strongly related to land conversion.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    While the United States should remain the largest producer, technical and economic challenges related to blending more than 10% ethanol in the gasoline pool raise uncertainty over the outlook.

    “While the United States should remain the largest producer, technical and economic challenges related to blending more than 10% ethanol in the gasoline pool raise uncertainty over the outlook.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Such land use change harms biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions.

    “Such land use change harms biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    In Brazil, more optimistic sugar cane harvest conditions and new government support measures should drive continued growth, though the ethanol sector there still faces financial difficulties.

    “In Brazil, more optimistic sugar cane harvest conditions and new government support measures should drive continued growth, though the ethanol sector there still faces financial difficulties.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The global potential for biomass energy production is large in absolute terms, but it is far not enough to replace the current energy usage.

    “The global potential for biomass energy production is large in absolute terms, but it is far not enough to replace the current energy usage.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    This expansion would include some cropland, as well as pastures and currently unused land, the latter in particular for production of lignocellulosic biomass.

    “This expansion would include some cropland, as well as pastures and currently unused land, the latter in particular for production of lignocellulosic biomass [49].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [49] IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. Paris: OECD/IEA; 2010.

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    First generation transport biofuels, for example, biodiesel based on oilseed rape or ethanol from wheat/maize, are far less efficient use of resources.

    “First generation transport biofuels, for example, biodiesel based on oilseed rape or ethanol from wheat/maize, are far less efficient use of resources.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The international bioenergy market is expected to have a wide range of suppliers from several world regions and the importation of bioenergy is therefore not affected by the same geopolitical concerns as oil and natural gas.

    “The international bioenergy market is expected to have a wide range of suppliers from several world regions and the importation of bioenergy is therefore not affected by the same geopolitical concerns as are oil and natural gas.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The current energy crop mix in the EU is not favorable to the environment, and a broader mix of crops could reduce environmental impacts.

    “The current energy crop mix in the EU is not favorable to the environment, a broader mix of crops could reduce environmental impacts.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    These problems will be amplified by the change in land productivity caused by climate change (erosion, water stress, increasing soil salinity, and others more).

    “These problems will be amplified by the change in land productivity caused by climate change (erosion, water stress, increasing soil salinity, and others more).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Long-term transport shares are the most challenging to project, and the most uncertain, because the range of possible vehicle technologies and fuel types in the future is very broad, future oil prices are uncertain, and technology progress from vehicle batteries to advanced biofuels remains unpredictable.

    “Nevertheless, long-term transport shares are the most challenging to project, and the most uncertain, because the range of possible vehicle technologies and fuel types in the future is very broad, future oil prices are uncertain, and technology progress from vehicle batteries to advanced biofuels, remains unpredictable.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    More biofuels on the market could reduce oil prices resulting in more economic activity.

    “More biofuels on the market could reduce the oil prices resulting in more economic activity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    This is due to the displacement of crop production onto previously unused land, which can lead to the conversion of forests and savannah to agriculture.

    “This is due to the displacement of crop production onto previously unused land, which can lead to the conversion of forests and savannah to agriculture.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
222 of 222

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    A quarter of all agricultural land has already suffered degradation.

    “Meanwhile a quarter of all agricultural land has already suffered degradation, and there is a deepening awareness of the long term consequences of a loss of biodiversity with the prospect of climate change.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Land is multi-functional and is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.

    “However, the worldwide potential of bioenergy is limited, because all land is multi-functional and land is also needed for food, feed, timber, and fiber production, and for nature conservation and climate protection.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Biomass contains all the elements found in fossil resources, albeit in different combinations.

    “As biomass contains all the elements found in fossil resources, albeit in different combinations, therefore present and developing technologies can lead to a future based on renewable, sustainable and low carbon economies.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Biomass could sustainably contribute between a quarter and a third of the future global energy mix.

    “It is reasonable to assume that biomass could sustainably contribute between a quarter and a third of the future global energy mix.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    No additional land use effect regarding productive land occurs when unproductive land is converted to bioenergy feedstock production.

    “no additional land use effect regarding productive land is assumed to occur here”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Global availability of cellulosic biomass without any trade restrictions is assumed.

    “assumption on global availability of cellulosic biomass without any trade restrictions may overestimate calculated bioenergy potentials”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All suitable land for agricultural production is made available for land expansion.

    “if all suitable land for agricultural production was made available for land expansion”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Co-emissions from deforestation, biodiversity issues, and impacts on food and water security are not considered.

    “Without considering co-emissions from deforestation, biodiversity issues, and impacts on food and water security”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    No indirect LUC effects are considered.

    “if no indirect LUC effects are considered”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Bioenergy systems replace fossil-based energy and bioenergy production emissions, including those arising due to land use change, are kept low.

    “if they replace fossil-based energy and if the bioenergy production emissionsincluding those arising due to land use changeare kept low”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    DDGS has been one of the most economically competitive sources of energy and proteins available on the world feed market over the past several years.

    “Over the past several years, DDGS has been one of the most economically competitive sources of energy and proteins available on the world feed market.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Only the starch portion of the corn kernel is converted to ethanol, while the protein, fat, fiber and other components are concentrated and passed through the process to the DDGS.

    “Only the starch portion of the corn kernel is converted to ethanol, while the protein, fat, fiber and other components are concentrated and passed through the process to the DDGS.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is limited demand for glycerin for food, beverage, personal care and oral products, as well as pharmaceutical and other industrial uses.

    “There is a limited demand for glycerin, the by-product of biodiesel production for a number of food, beverage, personal care and oral products, as well as pharmaceutical and other industrial uses.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Research at different countries has found that glycerin can be used effectively in livestock rations to replace fossil-based glycerin.

    “To deal with that potential problem and to create additional markets for the by-product of biodiesel, research at different countries has found that glycerin can be used effectively in livestock rations to replace fossil-based glycerin.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.

    “The biofuel production processes give rise to co-products which are largely suitable as animal feed.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.

    “In the cases of grains and oilseeds, DDGS, CGF/CGM and oil cakes (mainly rapeseed and soybean cake/meal) substitute grain and soybean as feed.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Increased population density, coupled with changes in dietary habits in developing countries towards high quality food, is projected to increase demand for food production by 60% by 2050.

    “The increased population density, coupled with changes in dietary habits in developing countries towards high quality food is projected to increase demand for food production by 60% by 2050.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Recent estimates on the potential global ligno-cellulosic bioenergy supply range from less than 100 EJ/year to 1500 EJ/year for 2050.

    “Recent estimates on the potential global ligno-cellulosic bioenergy supply range from less than 100 EJ/yearto 1500 EJ yearfor 2050.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100.

    “In other energy scenarios, bioenergy use is projected to be in the order of 150-400 EJ in the year 2100.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Globally, advanced biofuels capacity is expected to expand only slowly, though the first commercial-scale plants in the United States and Europe were recently commissioned.

    “Globally, advanced biofuels capacity is expected to expand only slowly, though the first commercial-scale plants in the United States and Europe were recently commissioned.”
20 of 20

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Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Two totals are given for 2012 fuel ethanol production

    Minor

    The text reports 86 billion liters of global fuel ethanol production in 2012, while Fig. 4 gives a total of 85 billion liters for the same year.

  • Conflicting net land requirements for fuel ethanol

    Minor

    The net area needed for fuel ethanol is stated as 21 million hectares, but the preceding calculation says it declines to 15 million hectares after accounting for co-products.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

2 of the 73 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 10

  1. IPPC. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012.
  2. Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends findings of the condition and trends working group. In: Hassan R, Scholes R, Ash N, editors. Washington, DC: Island Press; 2005. pp. 77–122.
  3. Fargione, 2008, Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt, Science, 319, 1235, 10.1126/science.1152747 · DOI · Paper page
  4. Fritsche U. Bioenergy GHG emission balances including direct and indirect land use change effects. In: presented at the IEA workshop “Sustainability certification of biofuels and bioenergy”, 29 January 2009, Brussels.
  5. EEA, EU. Bioenergy potential from a resource-efficiency perspective. European Environment Agency. EEA Report No 6/2013; 2013. 60 pp. ISBN 978-92-9213-397-9 doi:10.2800/92247. · DOI
  6. FAO. Global Agriculture Towards 2050. In: Paper Prepared by the High-Level Expert Forum for the Conference How to Feed the World by 2050. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization; 2009.
  7. Haberl, 2007, Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production in Earth׳s terrestrial ecosystems, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 12942, 10.1073/pnas.0704243104 · DOI · Paper page
  8. Krausmann, 2013, Global human appropriation of net primary production doubled in the 20th century, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 110, 10324, 10.1073/pnas.1211349110 · DOI · Paper page
  9. Yifei, 2012, Could China׳s gutter oil be used to save the environment, Int Bus Times
  10. Licht FO. World ethanol and biofuel Report (vol. 10, no. 9). London: Agra Informa; 2013.

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Related

Authors
Popp, J., Lakner, Z., Harangi-Rákos, M., & Fári, M.
Affiliations
  • University of Debrecen (HU)
  • Corvinus University of Budapest (HU)
Corresponding author
Popp, J.
ORCID
Venue
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2014-04
Volume
32
Pages
559-578
ISSN
1364-0321 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.rser.2014.01.056
OpenAlex
W1988730360
Semantic Scholar
467da42573e1d57c3ca934e50ed63d5278043467
Cited by
967
References
73
Citations by year
2026: 44 · 2025: 84 · 2024: 96 · 2023: 92 · 2022: 112 · 2021: 120 · 2020: 108 · 2019: 78 · 2018: 92 · 2017: 58 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 14
FWCI
93.25
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • University of Debrecen Electronic Archive (University of Debrecen) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agronomy and Crop Science › Bioenergy crop production and management
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Bioeconomy and Sustainability Development
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Biomedical Engineering › Biofuel production and bioconversion
Keywords
biofuels, land use competition, food security, energy security, biomass, climate change mitigation, water scarcity, global food prices, environmental impacts of bioenergy, renewable energy

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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