Waning of 2-dose BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection accounting for depletion-of-susceptibles bias
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
ABSTRACT Concerns about the duration of protection conferred by COVID-19 vaccines have arisen in postlicensure evaluations. However, “depletion of susceptibles” bias driven by differential accrual of infection among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals may contribute to the appearance of waning vaccine effectiveness (VE) in epidemiologic studies, potentially hindering interpretation of estimates. We enrolled California residents who received molecular SARS-CoV-2 tests in a matched, test-negative design case-control study to estimate VE of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines between 23 February and 5 December 2021. We analyzed waning protection following 2 vaccine doses using conditional logistic regression models. Additionally, we used data from case-based surveillance along with estimated case-to-infection ratios from a population-based serological study to quantify the potential contribution of the “depletion-of-susceptibles” bias to time-varying VE estimates for 2 doses. We also estimated VE for 3 doses relative to 0 doses and 2 doses, by time since second dose receipt. Pooled VE of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 91.3% (95% confidence interval: 83.8-95.4%) at 14 days after second-dose receipt and declined to 50.8% (31.2-75.6%) at 7 months. Accounting for differential depletion-of-susceptibles among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, we estimated VE was 53.2% (23.6-71.2%) at 7 months among individuals who had completed the primary series (2 doses). With receipt of a third dose of BN162b2 or mRNA-1273, VE increased to 95.0% (82.8-98.6%), compared with zero doses. These findings confirm that observed waning of protection is not attributable to epidemiologic bias and support ongoing efforts to administer additional vaccine doses to mitigate burden of COVID-19.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Immune responses to mRNA COVID-19 vaccines wane in the months immediately following administration.
“These vaccines are effective, but the immune response wanes in the months immediately following administration.8,9”
From Immunogenicity and safety of a booster dose of a self-amplifying RNA COVID-19 vaccine (ARCT-154) versus BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine: a double-blind, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3, non-inferiority trial (2024) · cites this paper as [9]
The Discussion (page not available in our copy) reports waning protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection over the months after two doses of BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. That supports declining vaccine effectiveness, but the study does not measure immune responses directly, so it does not establish that those responses themselves wane. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine
Polack, F. P., Thomas, S. J., Kitchin, N., Absalon, J., Gurtman, A., Lockhart, S., Perez, J. L., Pérez Marc, G., Moreira, E. D., Zerbini, C., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2034577 · Cited by 14,592 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Vac-cines currently available in the United States provide robust protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes including hospitalization and death (2–4).”
Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine
Baden, L. R., El Sahly, H. M., Essink, B., Kotloff, K., Frey, S., Novak, R., Diemert, D., Spector, S. A., Rouphael, N., Creech, C. B., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2035389 · Cited by 10,119 · see citing works
Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant
Lopez Bernal, J., Andrews, N., Gower, C., Gallagher, E., Simmons, R., Thelwall, S., Stowe, J., Tessier, E., Groves, N., Dabrera, G., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2108891 · Cited by 2,889 · see citing works
Interim Results of a Phase 1–2a Trial of Ad26.COV2.S Covid-19 Vaccine
Sadoff, J., Le Gars, M., Shukarev, G., Heerwegh, D., Truyers, C., de Groot, A. M., Stoop, J., Tete, S., Van Damme, W., Leroux-Roels, I., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2034201 · Cited by 1,208 · see citing works
Tartof, S. Y., Slezak, J. M., Fischer, H., Hong, V., Ackerson, B. K., Ranasinghe, O. N., Frankland, T. B., Ogun, O. A., Zamparo, J. M., Gray, S., et al. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)02183-8 · Cited by 1,167 · see citing works
Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa
Pulliam, J. R. C., van Schalkwyk, C., Govender, N., Gottberg, A. V., Cohen, C., Groome, M. J., Dushoff, J., Mlisana, K., & Moultrie, H. (2021) · doi:10.1101/2021.11.11.21266068 · Cited by 1,037 · see citing works
Waning Immunity after the BNT162b2 Vaccine in Israel
Goldberg, Y., Mandel, M., Bar-On, Y. M., Bodenheimer, O., Freedman, L., Haas, E. J., Milo, R., Alroy-Preis, S., Ash, N., & Huppert, A. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114228 · Cited by 1,034 · see citing works
Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar
Chemaitelly, H., Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., AlMukdad, S., Yassine, H. M., Benslimane, F. M., Al Khatib, H. A., Coyle, P., Ayoub, H. H., Al Kanaani, Z., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114114 · Cited by 831 · see citing works
Duration of Protection against Mild and Severe Disease by Covid-19 Vaccines
Andrews, N., Tessier, E., Stowe, J., Gower, C., Kirsebom, F., Simmons, R., Gallagher, E., Thelwall, S., Groves, N., Dabrera, G., et al. (2022) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2115481 · Cited by 807 · see citing works
The Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic
Oran, D. P., & Topol, E. J. (2021) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m20-6976 · Cited by 532 · see citing works
Ferdinands, J. M., Rao, S., Dixon, B. E., Mitchell, P. K., DeSilva, M. B., Irving, S. A., Lewis, N., Natarajan, K., Stenehjem, E., Grannis, S. J., et al. (2022) · MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report · doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7107e2 · Cited by 435 · see citing works
Self, W. H., Tenforde, M. W., Rhoads, J. P., Gaglani, M., Ginde, A. A., Douin, D. J., Olson, S. M., Talbot, H. K., Casey, J. D., Mohr, N. M., et al. (2021) · MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report · doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7038e1 · Cited by 406 · see citing works
Lewnard, J. A., Hong, V. X., Patel, M. M., Kahn, R. J., Lipsitch, M., & Tartof, S. Y. (2022) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-022-01887-z · Cited by 382 · see citing works
Self-citationNasreen, S., Chung, H., He, S., Brown, K. A., Gubbay, J. B., Buchan, S. A., Fell, D. B., Austin, P. C., Schwartz, K. L., Sundaram, M. E., et al. (2022) · Nature Microbiology · doi:10.1038/s41564-021-01053-0 · Cited by 350 · see citing works
Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States
Wu, S. L., Mertens, A., Crider, Y. S., Nguyen, A., Pokpongkiat, N. N., Djajadi, S., Seth, A., Hsiang, M. S., Colford, J. M., Reingold, A. L., et al. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18272-4 · Cited by 347 · see citing works
Brosh‐Nissimov, T., Orenbuch‐Harroch, E., Chowers, M., Elbaz, M., Nesher, L., Stein, M., Maor, ., Cohen, R., Hussein, K., Weinberger, M., et al. (2021) · Clinical Microbiology and Infection · doi:10.1016/j.cmi.2021.06.036 · Cited by 327 · see citing works
Immunogenicity of standard and extended dosing intervals of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine
Payne, R. P., Longet, S., Austin, J. A., Skelly, D. T., Dejnirattisai, W., Adele, S., Meardon, N., Faustini, S., Al-Taei, S., Moore, S. C., et al. (2021) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2021.10.011 · Cited by 322 · see citing works
Smith, P. G., Rodrigues, L. C., & Fine, P. (1984) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/13.1.87 · Cited by 314 · see citing works
Clarke, K. E. N., Jones, J. M., Deng, Y., Nycz, E., Lee, A., Iachan, R., Gundlapalli, A. V., Hall, A. J., & MacNeil, A. (2022) · MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report · doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7117e3 · Cited by 297 · see citing works
Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years
Saad-Roy, C. M., Wagner, C. E., Baker, R. E., Morris, S. E., Farrar, J., Graham, A. L., Levin, S. A., Mina, M. J., Metcalf, C. J. E., & Grenfell, B. T. (2020) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abd7343 · Cited by 278 · see citing works
Correlation of SARS-CoV-2-breakthrough infections to time-from-vaccine
Mizrahi, B., Lotan, R., Kalkstein, N., Peretz, A., Perez, G., Ben-Tov, A., Chodick, G., Gazit, S., & Patalon, T. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26672-3 · Cited by 261 · see citing works
Evidence of the depletion of susceptibles effect in non-experimental pharmacoepidemiologic research
Moride, Y., & Lucien, A. (1994) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/0895-4356(94)90170-8 · Cited by 253 · see citing works
Bruxvoort, K. J., Sy, L. S., Qian, L., Ackerson, B. K., Luo, Y., Lee, G. S., Tian, Y., Florea, A., Aragones, M., Tubert, J. E., et al. (2021) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj-2021-068848 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
Andrejko, K. L., Pry, J. M., Myers, J. F., Fukui, N., DeGuzman, J. L., Openshaw, J. J., Watt, J., Lewnard, J. A., Jain, S., California COVID-19 Case-Control Study Team, et al. (2022) · MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report · doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7106e1 · Cited by 194 · see citing works
Self-citationAndrews, N. J., Tessier, E., Stowe, J., et al. (2021) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.09.15.21263583 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Elapsed time since BNT162b2 vaccine and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection: test negative design study
Israel, A., Merzon, E., Schäffer, A. A., Shenhar, Y., Green, I., Golan-Cohen, A., Ruppin, E., Magen, E., & Vinker, S. (2021) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj-2021-067873 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness and the Test-Negative Design
Dean, N. E., Hogan, J. W., & Schnitzer, M. E. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejme2113151 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Tenforde, M. W., Patel, M. M., Ginde, A. A., Douin, D. J., Talbot, H. K., Casey, J. D., Mohr, N. M., Zepeski, A. E., Gaglani, M., McNeal, T., et al. (2021) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciab687 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Tartof, S. Y., Slezak, J. M., Puzniak, L., Hong, V. X., Xie, F., Ackerson, B. K., Valluri, S. R., Jódar, L., & McLaughlin, J. M. (2022) · The Lancet Respiratory Medicine · doi:10.1016/s2213-2600(22)00101-1 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
León, T. M., Dorabawila, V., Nelson, L., Lutterloh, E. C., Bauer, U. E., Backenson, B. P., Bassett, M. T., Henry, H., Bregman, B., Midgley, C. M., et al. (2022) · MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report · doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7104e1 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Self-citationMeasurement of Vaccine Direct Effects Under the Test-Negative Design
Lewnard, J. A., Tedijanto, C., Cowling, B. J., & Lipsitch, M. (2018) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwy163 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Self-citationTrack Omicron’s spread with molecular data
Scott, L. E., Hsiao, M., Moyo, S., Singh, L., Tegally, H., Dor, G., Maes, P., Pybus, O. G., Kraemer, M. U. G., Semenova, E., et al. (2021) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.abn4543 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against variants of concern, CanadaPreprint
Nasreen, S., Chung, H., He, S., et al. (2021) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Theoretical Framework for Retrospective Studies of the Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines
Lewnard, J. A., Patel, M. M., Jewell, N. P., Verani, J. R., Kobayashi, M., Tenforde, M. W., Dean, N. E., Cowling, B. J., & Lopman, B. A. (2021) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000001366 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Self-citationShenai, M. B., Rahme, R., & Noorchashm, H. (2021) · Cureus · doi:10.7759/cureus.19102 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Kahn, R., Schrag, S. J., Verani, J. R., & Lipsitch, M. (2022) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwac015 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Tackling immunosenescence to improve COVID-19 outcomes and vaccine response in older adults
Cox, L. S., Bellantuono, I., Lord, J. M., Sapey, E., Mannick, J. B., Partridge, L., Gordon, A. L., Steves, C. J., & Witham, M. D. (2020) · The Lancet Healthy Longevity · doi:10.1016/s2666-7568(20)30011-8 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Antibody Response and Breakthrough Infection in Patients Receiving Dialysis
Anand, S., Montez‐Rath, M. E., Han, J., García, P., Cadden, L., Hunsader, P., Morgan, C., Kerschmann, R., Beyer, P., Dittrich, M., et al. (2021) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m21-4176 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Covid-19 vaccination: What’s the evidence for extending the dosing interval?
Iacobucci, G., & Mahase, E. (2021) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.n18 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Seppälä, E. M., Veneti, L., Starrfelt, J., Danielsen, A. S., Bragstad, K., Hungnes, O., Taxt, A. M., Watle, S. V., & Meijerink, H. (2021) · Eurosurveillance · doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.35.2100793 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Andrejko, K. L., Pry, J. M., Myers, J. F., Jewell, N. P., Openshaw, J. J., Watt, J., Jain, S., Lewnard, J. A., California COVID-19 Case-Control Study Team, Samani, H., et al. (2021) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciab640 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Self-citationChallenges of Vaccine Effectiveness and Waning Studies
Lipsitch, M. (2018) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciy773 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Prevention of COVID-19 by mRNA-based vaccines within the general population of CaliforniaPreprint
Andrejko, K. L., Pry, J. M., Myers, J. F., Jewell, N. P., Openshaw, J. J., Watt, J., Jain, S., & Lewnard, J. A. (2021) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.04.08.21255135 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Self-citationPredictors of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection Following High-Risk Exposure
Andrejko, K. L., Pry, J. M., Myers, J. F., Openshaw, J. J., Watt, J., Birkett, N., DeGuzman, J. L., Barbaduomo, C. M., Dong, Z., Fang, A. T., et al. (2021) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciab1040 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationLamba, K., Bradley, H. M., Shioda, K., Sullivan, P. S., Luisi, N., Hall, E. W., Mehrotra, M., Lim, E., Jain, S., Kamali, A., et al. (2021) · Open Forum Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/ofid/ofab379 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Self-citationAmirthalingam, G., Bernal, J. L., Andrews, N., et al. (2021) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.07.26.21261140 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Rapid COVID-19 vaccine rollout: immense success but challenges ahead
Sandmann, F., & Jit, M. (2021) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00616-2 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Mehrotra, M., Lim, E., Lamba, K., Kamali, A., Lai, K., Meza, E., Szeto, I., Robinson, P. V., Tsai, C., Gebhart, D., et al. (2022) · Open Forum Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/ofid/ofac246 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Oda, Y., Kumagai, Y., Kanai, M., Iwama, Y., Okura, I., Minamida, T., Yagi, Y., Kurosawa, T., Greener, B., Zhang, Y., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(23)00650-3 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Hồ, N. T., Hughes, S. G., Ta, V. T., Lan, P. T., Đỗ, Q., Nguyễn, T. V., Phạm, A. T. V., Đặng, M. T. N., Nguyễn, L. V., Trịnh, Q. V., et al. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-47905-1 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Persistence of immune responses of a self-amplifying RNA COVID-19 vaccine (ARCT-154) versus BNT162b2
Oda, Y., Kumagai, Y., Kanai, M., Iwama, Y., Okura, I., Minamida, T., Yagi, Y., Kurosawa, T., Chivukula, P., Zhang, Y., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00060-4 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Efficacy of a bivalent (D614 + B.1.351) SARS-CoV-2 Protein Vaccine
Dayan, G. H., Rouphael, N., Walsh, S. R., Chen, A., Grunenberg, N. A., Allen, M., Antony, J., Asante, K. P., Bhate, A. S., Beresnev, T. H., et al. (2022) · The Lancet Respiratory Medicine · doi:10.1016/s2213-2600(23)00263-1 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Andrejko, K. L., Myers, J. F., Openshaw, J. J., Fukui, N., Li, S., Watt, J., Murray, E. L., Hoover, C., Lewnard, J. A., Jain, S., et al. (2022) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.12.052 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Self-citationHo, N. T., Hughes, S. G., Sekulovich, R. E., Ta, V. T., Nguyễn, T. V., Pham, A. T. V., Lương, Q. C., Tran, L. T. L., Luu, A. T. V., Nguyen, A. N., et al. (2024) · npj Vaccines · doi:10.1038/s41541-024-01017-5 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Carazo, S., Skowronski, D. M., Brousseau, N., Guay, C.-A., Sauvageau, C., Racine, É., Talbot, D. C., Ionescu, I. G., Fafard, J., Gilca, R., et al. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0325269 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Kahn, R. J., Feikin, D. R., Wiegand, R. E., & Lipsitch, M. (2023) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwad191 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Delaunay, C. L., Verdasca, N., Monge, S., Domegan, L. M., Sève, N., Buda, S., Meijer, A., Lucaccioni, H., Torrijos, M. L., McKenna, A., et al. (2025) · Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses · doi:10.1111/irv.70120 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Okada, Y., Kumagai, Y., Okura, I., Otsuki, M., Ishida, N., Iwama, Y., Minamida, T., Yagi, Y., Kurosawa, T., van Boxmeer, J., et al. (2024) · The Lancet Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(24)00565-6 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Lu, Y., Matuska, K., McEvoy, R., Izurieta, H. S., Hervol, J. R., Menis, M. D., Lindaas, A., Steele, W. R., Chillarige, Y., Wernecke, M., et al. (2024) · The Journal of Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/infdis/jiae503 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Oda, Y., Kumagai, Y., Kanai, M., Iwama, Y., Okura, I., Minamida, T., Yagi, Y., Kurosawa, T., Greener, B. N., Zhang, Y., et al. (2023) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2023.07.13.23292597 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Thomas, R., Zaqout, A., Meqbel, B., Jafar, U., Vaikath, N. N., Aldushain, A., Naik, A., Shaath, H., Al-Akl, N. S., Adam, A., et al. (2025) · Frontiers in Immunology · doi:10.3389/fimmu.2025.1557426 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Humphreys, J., Nicolay, N., Braeye, T., Evercooren, I. V., Hansen, C. H., Moustsen‐Helms, I. R., Sacco, C., Fabiani, M., Castilla, J., Martínez‐Baz, I., et al. (2025) · Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses · doi:10.1111/irv.70198 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Anti-RBD IgG dynamics following infection or vaccination
Harrache, A., Saker, K., Mokdad, B., Generenaz, L., Saade, C., Pons, S., Fassier, J., Bal, A., Trabaud, M., Rabilloud, M., et al. (2024) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126464 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Immunogenicity of ARCT-154, a self-amplifying mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, in different booster settings
Oda, Y., Ho, N. T., Nguyen, X., Tran, L.-T.-L., Nguyễn, V. T., Iwama, Y., Okura, I., Yagi, Y., Low, J. G., Hughes, S. G., et al. (2025) · Vaccine X · doi:10.1016/j.jvacx.2025.100693 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Association of public health and social measures with vaccine effectiveness
Tsang, T. K., Sullivan, S. G., Huang, X., Wang, C., Li-ping, P., Yang, B., & Cowling, B. J. (2026) · Nature Health · doi:10.1038/s44360-026-00127-9 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Pediatric SARS-CoV-2 Incidence in California by Vaccination Status, December 2021 to April 2023
Linton, N. M., Quint, J. J., Chen, J., Hoover, C., Jain, S., & León, T. M. (2025) · Pediatrics Open Science · doi:10.1542/pedsos.2024-000264 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationKanechi, R., Shishido, T., Tachikawa, M., Nishimura, T., Sawada, A., Okade, H., Ishikawa, D., Yamaguchi, H., & Araki, M. (2025) · Biochemistry and Biophysics Reports · doi:10.1016/j.bbrep.2025.101999 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Martínez‐Baz, I., Trobajo‐Sanmartín, C., Fernández-Huerta, M., Navascués, A., Echeverría, A., Egüés, N., Vera-Punzano, N., Portillo, M. E., Ezpeleta, G., & Castilla, J. (2025) · Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses · doi:10.1111/irv.70163 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Sang, N., Dai, X., Yang, Q. T., Nie, M., He, W., Wang, Z., Liu, H., Duan, Y., Liu, Q., Han, L., et al. (2026) · The Journals of Gerontology Series A · doi:10.1093/gerona/glag052 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Dobrescu, A. I., Pinte, L., Sharifan, A., Gadinger, A., Moser, I., Cooper, C., & Gartlehner, G. (2026) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/annals-25-05044 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Kanechi, R., Shishido, T., Tachikawa, M., Nishimura, T., Sawada, A., Okade, H., Ishikawa, D., Yamaguchi, H., & Araki, M. (2024) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2024.10.07.615730 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Chow, J. Y., Goh, Z. J., Li, R., Lim, D. Z. Y., Wee, L. E., Lye, D. C., Tan, K. B., & Lim, J. T. (2025) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2025.09.29.25336864 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Wilburn, J., Sappe, B., Jorge, K., Hickey, L., Nandyala, D., & Chadha, T. (2024) · Cureus · doi:10.7759/cureus.65111
Kissling, E., Nunes, B., Hooiveld, M., Martínez‐Baz, I., Monge, S., Robertson, C., Knol, M. J., Sève, N., Mlinarić, I., Domegan, L. M., et al. (2025) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwaf254
Bazarjav, P., Erdene-Ochir, T., Sandagdorj, A., Enkhtuvshin, A., Enkhbayar, P., Ganbold, S., Baatarsuren, N., Oyun-Erdene, S., Batmunkh, B., Jantsansengee, B., et al. (2026) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2026.129179
Feikin, D. R., Higdon, M. M., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Andrews, N., & Araos, R. (2023) · The Lancet Respiratory Medicine · doi:10.1016/s2213-2600(23)00015-6
- Authors
- Andrejko, K. L., Pry, J. M., Myers, J. F., Mehrotra, M., Lamba, K., Lim, E., Fukui, N., DeGuzman, J. L., Openshaw, J., Watt, J., Jain, S., Lewnard, J. A., & COVID-19 Case-Control Study Team, O. B. O. T. C.
- Affiliations
- California Department of Public Health (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Jain, Seema
- ORCID
- Venue
- American Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2023-01-24
- Volume
- 192
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 895-907
- ISSN
- 0002-9262 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-6256
- PMC
- PMC10236522
- OpenAlex
- W4318163930
- Cited by
- 28
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 5.59
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- American Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Funders
- California Department of Public Health (5-NU50CK000539, NU50CK000539)
- Ministry of Education, India
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (NU50CK000539, 5-NU50CK000539, R01-AI14812701, 0187.0150)
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R01AI148127, R01-AI14812701)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Keywords
- COVID-19 vaccines, SARS-CoV-2, vaccine effectiveness, waning immunity, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, booster vaccination, test-negative design, serological studies, duration of protection, symptomatic infection
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, Vaccine Efficacy, BNT162 Vaccine, 2019-nCoV Vaccine mRNA-1273, Humans, RNA, Messenger, Case-Control Studies
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
