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Cited by 247Viral Infections and Immunology ResearchMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsVaccine Coverage and Hesitancy

Transmissibility and Persistence of Oral Polio Vaccine Viruses: Implications for the Global Poliomyelitis Eradication Initiative

Fine, P. E. M., Carneiro, I. A. M.·1999·American Journal of Epidemiology
DOI 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009924
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Abstract

The global poliomyelitis eradication initiative has been a tremendous success, with current evidence suggesting that wild poliovirus will cease to circulate anywhere in the world soon after the year 2000. As the goal of wild poliovirus eradication is approached, concern has been raised about the potential for persistent transmission of oral polio vaccine (OPV) viruses, as these viruses are known to revert toward wild-type neurovirulence. This paper has been extracted from a document prepared for the World Health Organization on the implications of OPV transmissibility for the strategy of stopping OPV vaccination after global eradication of wild polioviruses. The authors review the empirical evidence on OPV transmissibility available from household and community transmission studies and from mass-vaccination experiences. They then consider theoretical measures of transmissibility and persistence for wild and OPV viruses (secondary attack rate, basic reproduction number, and critical populations' size), to assess whether transmissibility of OPV viruses is sufficient to allow persistence of these viruses after cessation of vaccination. The findings indicate that OPV viruses could persist under various plausible circumstances, and that this potential should be a major consideration when planning the cessation of OPV vaccination.

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Crossref · 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009924

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  • OPV has attained an outstanding record of safety and efficacy over the four decades of worldwide use.

    “it is remarkable that OPV has attained such an outstanding record of safety and efficacy over the four decades of worldwide use (43, 55).”

    From VACCINE-DERIVED POLIOVIRUSES AND THE ENDGAME STRATEGY FOR GLOBAL POLIO ERADICATION (2005) · cites this paper as [55]

  • AFP surveillance is limited in sensitivity, because only about 1 in 200 nonimmune children infected with wild poliovirus shows signs of AFP.

    “AFP surveillance is also limited in sensitivity, because only about 1 in 200 nonimmune children infected with wild poliovirus showssignsofAFP(4,55,142).”

    From VACCINE-DERIVED POLIOVIRUSES AND THE ENDGAME STRATEGY FOR GLOBAL POLIO ERADICATION (2005) · cites this paper as [55]

  • Outbreaks occur when the density of nonimmune susceptibles rises to the point at which the chains of cVDPV transmission can propagate.

    “Outbreaks occur when the density of nonimmune susceptibles rises to the point at which the chains of cVDPV transmission can propagate (55, 135).”

    From VACCINE-DERIVED POLIOVIRUSES AND THE ENDGAME STRATEGY FOR GLOBAL POLIO ERADICATION (2005) · cites this paper as [55]

  • The increased risk for type 2 VDPVs probably results from the greater tendency of the type 2 vaccine strain to spread to household and community contacts.

    “The increased risk for type 2 VDPVs probably results from the greater tendency of the type 2 vaccine strain to spread to household (11, 55) and community contacts”

    From VACCINE-DERIVED POLIOVIRUSES AND THE ENDGAME STRATEGY FOR GLOBAL POLIO ERADICATION (2005) · cites this paper as [55]

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Authors
Fine, P. E. M., & Carneiro, I. A. M.
Affiliations
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
Corresponding author
Fine, P. E. M.
ORCID
Fine, P. E. M.
Venue
American Journal of Epidemiology
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
1999-11-15
Volume
150
Issue
10
Pages
1001-1021
ISSN
  • 0002-9262 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-6256
DOI
10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009924
OpenAlex
W2156623624
Cited by
247
References
128
Citations by year
2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 27 · 2017: 18 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 8
FWCI
1.87
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • American Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • World Health Organization
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Viral Infections and Immunology Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
  • Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
Keywords
viral persistence, polio eradication, secondary attack rate, basic reproduction number, critical population size, household transmission, community transmission, mass vaccination, wild poliovirus
MeSH terms
Disease Reservoirs, Humans, Poliomyelitis, Poliovirus Vaccine, Oral, Global Health, Poliovirus

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