Cited by 5Dark Matter and Cosmic PhenomenaGalaxies: Formation, Evolution, PhenomenaCosmology and Gravitation Theories

Constraint on dark matter self-interaction from combined strong lensing and stellar kinematics in MACS J0138-2155

Open access
O’Donnell, Jackson H., Jeltema, Tesla E., Roberts, M. Grant, Nightingale, James, Flowers, Abigail, Aldas, Dhruv·2026·Physical Review D

Published version of a preprint

Abstract

Self-Interacting Dark Matter (SIDM) represents a compelling alternative to collisionless dark matter, with diverse phenomenological signals from dwarf galaxy to galaxy cluster scales. We present new constraints on the SIDM cross section from the galaxy cluster MACS J0138-2155, host to the strongly lensed supernovae Requiem and Encore. Our analysis combines strong gravitational lensing with spatially resolved stellar kinematics of the central galaxy, employing several methodological advances over previous cluster-scale SIDM studies. The result is a self-consistent measurement of the density profile of MACS J0138-2155 across two orders of magnitude in radius. Our lensing and kinematics analyses individually yield highly consistent results, and from their combination we report a 95% confidence upper limit on the SIDM cross section of $σ/m < 0.613$ cm$^2$/g, at an interaction velocity of $\langle v_\text{pair}\rangle < 2090$ km/s. This constraint, derived from the most detailed single-system analysis to date, is competitive with previous cluster-scale limits while demonstrating the power of combining complementary gravitational probes. The methodology developed here advances precision cluster lens modeling and will inform future studies of dark matter physics, as well as time-delay cosmography in this unique strong lensing system. Additionally, our results imply SN Requiem will reappear sooner than previously reported, with a 1$σ$ CL between January 2027 and November 2028 at H$_0 = 67.7$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$.

Verified 2026-11-01 · 4 references not checked yet

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper combines strong gravitational lensing and spatially resolved stellar kinematics of MACS J0138-2155 to constrain self-interacting dark matter, reporting a 95% CL upper limit of σ/m < 0.613 cm²/g at ⟨v_pair⟩ < 2090 km/s. The joint model also predicts SN Requiem will reappear sooner than previously reported, with a 1σ range of January 2027–November 2028 at H₀ = 67.7 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹.

Key findings

  • The joint strong-lensing + kinematics model gives a 95% CL upper limit on the SIDM cross section of σ/m < 0.613 cm²/g at an interaction velocity ⟨v_pair⟩ < 2090 km/s; the joint posterior on σ/m is 0.02⁺⁰·¹⁸₋₀.₀₂ cm²/g.
  • Lensing-only and kinematics-only results are highly consistent; the joint model tightens constraints, yielding log₁₀(M₂₀₀m/M⊙) = 14.8 ± 0.1, c₂₀₀m = 10 ± 2, log₁₀(r₁/kpc) = 1.6⁺⁰·⁷₋₁.₀, and log₁₀Υ∗ = 0.5⁺⁰·²₋₀.₄.
  • The joint model predicts the next image of SN Requiem (feature d) with a delay of 4245⁺³⁴³₋₃₂₂ days relative to the southernmost image, median November 2027; the abstract gives a 1σ range of January 2027–November 2028 at H₀ = 67.7 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹. SN Encore’s next image (d) is predicted at median February 2033.
  • The joint posterior shows bimodality and a strong Υ∗–σ/m degeneracy, with higher cross sections occurring exclusively at high Υ∗; the inferred halo concentration is ∼2σ higher than the Ludlow et al. mass–concentration relation, which the paper attributes to strong-lensing selection for concentrated, elongated halos.

Methods

  • Data include HST ACS/WFC F555W and WFC3/IR imaging, JWST NIRCam F115W/F150W/F200W imaging, and VLT MUSE IFU spectroscopy (three 970 s pointings). Strong-lensing constraints use 29 measured positions of 10 source features from JWST NIRCam plus three SN Requiem positions from HST; kinematics use 25 Voronoi bins from MUSE, binned to target S/N 23 Å⁻¹ between 5035 and 5160 Å, fitted with ppxf and XSL templates.
  • The shared SIDM mass model uses the isothermal Jeans method with a prolate 3D halo and seven shared parameters. Lensing is modeled with PyAutoLens using Cored Steep Ellipsoid decomposition, dPIE member galaxies, and external shear; kinematics are forward-modeled with JAM using an MGE light profile from MGEFit. Posteriors are sampled with emcee, with kinematics covariance built from 108 analysis settings × 1000 realizations.

Limitations

  • Paper-stated: the isothermal Jeans method only describes the core-expansion phase and fails to describe core-collapse; the analysis is a single system; strong-lensing selection effects favor concentrated and line-of-sight-elongated halos; kinematics systematics are limited by using only the XSL template library, and statistical uncertainties are large because of a less stringent S/N target; the Υ∗–σ/m degeneracy limits the ability to distinguish baryonic from dark mass; pixel-level strong-lensing modeling is beyond scope.
  • Evident from the text: the joint posterior is bimodal, and the external shear term may absorb lens mass structure not properly described by the parametric model; the SIDM cross section is not directly sampled but derived from r₁ with a likelihood weighting to enforce a flat prior on ln(σ/m).

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1103/hfgd-245k

Cites

104 of 111 references verified0 citation errors · 3 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

56 of 71 cited sources checked · 44 supported · 2 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation
    § A. Self-Interacting Dark Matter · p. 2

    Currently, the most stringent absolute constraints on the SIDM cross section come from strong lensing of galaxy clusters, suggesting σ/m ≲ 0.1 cm^2/g.

    “Currently, the most stringent absolute constraints on the SIDM cross section come from strong lensing of galaxy clusters, which suggest σ/m ≲ 0 . 1 cm 2 / g [17, 18].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [17] L. Sagunski, S. Gad-Nasr, B. Colquhoun, A. Robertson, and S. Tulin, Velocity-dependent self-interacting dark matter from groups and clusters of galaxies, Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics 2021 , 024. source

      In the discussion following Table III (page unavailable), the paper says strong-lensing-only studies constrained σ/m < 1 cm²/g and describes earlier 0.1 cm²/g limits as overestimated. Its own stronger cluster limit is σ/m < 0.35 cm²/g at 95% confidence and also uses stellar kinematics, so it does not support the claimed strong-lensing limit of ≲0.1 cm²/g. (LLM, conf=0.90)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [18] K. E. Andrade, J. Fuson, S. Gad-Nasr, D. Kong, Q. Minor, M. G. Roberts, and M. Kaplinghat, A stringent upper limit on dark matter self-interaction cross-section from cluster strong lensing, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 510 , 54 (2022). source
  • Interpretationown data
    § A Constraint on Dark Matter Self-Interaction from Combined Strong Lensing and Stellar Kinematics in MACS J0138-2155 · p. 1

    The SIDM cross-section constraint is competitive with previous cluster-scale limits.

    “This constraint, derived from the most detailed single-system analysis to date, is competitive with previous cluster-scale limits while demonstrating the power of combining complementary gravitational probes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [17] L. Sagunski, S. Gad-Nasr, B. Colquhoun, A. Robertson, and S. Tulin, Velocity-dependent self-interacting dark matter from groups and clusters of galaxies, Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics 2021 , 024. source
    • cites [18] K. E. Andrade, J. Fuson, S. Gad-Nasr, D. Kong, Q. Minor, M. G. Roberts, and M. Kaplinghat, A stringent upper limit on dark matter self-interaction cross-section from cluster strong lensing, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 510 , 54 (2022). source
  • Premisecitation
    § 1. Mass Model · p. 6

    An independent team reported a similar Faber-Jackson slope in MACSJ0138 of α ∼ 0.25 ± 0.05 using newer, deeper MUSE observations.

    “These results, published in Granata et al. [34], used different methodology on different data, yet yielded the highly consistent measurement of α ∼ 0 . 25 ± 0 . 05.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Granata et al. [34] G. Granata, G. B. Caminha, S. Ertl, C. Grillo, S. Schuldt, S. H. Suyu, A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, R. Ca˜ nameras, A. M. Koekemoer, P. Rosati, and S. Taubenberger, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Spectroscopy with MUSE, Astronomy and Astrophysics 697 , A94 (2025). source
  • Premisecitation
    § C. Lensing Cluster MACS J0138.0-2155 · p. 3

    The primary lensed source of MACSJ0138 is a quiescent galaxy at z = 1.95 known as MRG-0138.

    “whose primary source is a quiescent galaxy at z=1.95 known as MRG-0138 Newman et al. [30].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Newman et al. [30] A. B. Newman, S. Belli, R. S. Ellis, and S. G. Patel, Resolving Quiescent Galaxies at z ≥ 2. I. Search for Gravitationally Lensed Sources and Characterization of Their Structure, Stellar Populations, and Line Emission, The Astrophysical Journal 862 , 125 (2018). source
  • Premisecitation
    § V. DISCUSSION · p. 18

    Strong lensing-selected halos are biased to high concentrations.

    “It is widely known that strong lensing-selected halos are biased to high concentrations, see for example Meneghetti et al. [83].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Meneghetti et al. [83] M. Meneghetti, E. Rasia, J. Vega, J. Merten, M. Postman, G. Yepes, F. Sembolini, M. Donahue, S. Ettori, K. Umetsu, I. Balestra, M. Bartelmann, N. Ben´ ıtez, A. Biviano, R. Bouwens, L. Bradley, T. Broadhurst, D. Coe, N. Czakon, M. De Petris, H. Ford, C. Giocoli, S. Gottl¨ ober, C. Grillo, L. Infante, S. Jouvel, D. Kelson, A. Koekemoer, O. Lahav, D. Lemze, E. Medezinski, P. Melchior, A. Mercurio, A. Molino, L. Moscardini, A. Monna, J. Moustakas, L. A. Moustakas, M. Nonino, J. Rhodes, P. Rosati, J. Sayers, S. Seitz, W. Zheng, and A. Zitrin, The MUSIC of CLASH: Predictions on the Concentration-Mas source
  • May combine two claims. 48
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 61
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Appendix C: Robustness of the Measured Stellar Kinematics · p. 24

    The same paper demonstrated such an effect on measurements using MUSE spectra was typically of order approximately 3-4%, well below the statistical uncertainty in this work, and of similar scale to the systematic uncertainty we observe.

    “However, the same paper demonstrated such an effect on measurements using MUSE spectra was typically of order ≈ 3 -4%, well below the statistical uncertainty in this work, and of similar scale to the systematic uncertainty we observe.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [64] S. Knabel, P. Mozumdar, A. J. Shajib, T. Treu, M. Cappellari, C. Spiniello, and S. Birrer, TDCOSMO XIX: Measuring stellar velocity dispersion with sub-percent accuracy for cosmography (2025), arXiv:2502.16034 [astroph]. source

      Section 6.1 (p. 15) reports about 2% average statistical uncertainty for MUSE measurements, sub-percent systematic error from template choice, and other potential errors of 0.2–0.5%. Section 6.4 (p. 16) assigns the 3–4% average random errors to SDSS, not MUSE. The comparison with uncertainties in the citing authors’ own work is their assessment, not a result this source could establish. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    Weak lensing alone is unlikely to provide meaningful constraints on SIDM, but is highly useful in combination with the other probes here to ensure the inferred cluster mass is accurate on larger scales.

    “Weak lensing alone is unlikely to provide meaningful constraints on SIDM [28], but is highly useful in combination with the other probes here to ensure the inferred cluster mass is accurate on larger scales.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [28] A. Robertson, E. Huff, and K. Markoviˇ c, Why weak lensing cluster shapes are insensitive to self-interacting dark matter, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 521 , 3172 (2023). source
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Our joint model magnifications are in clear agreement with those reported in Suyu et al. [86], including [37, 38], with the magnifications of all observed sources within the 1σ errors of those in [38], and slightly below the absolute magnifications predicted by [37].

    “Our joint model magnifications are in clear agreement with those reported in Suyu et al. [86], including [37, 38], with the magnifications of all observed sources within the 1 σ errors of those in [38], and slightly below the absolute magnifications predicted by [37].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Suyu et al. [86] S. H. Suyu, A. Acebron, C. Grillo, P. Bergamini, G. B. Caminha, S. Cha, J. M. Diego, S. Ertl, N. Foo, B. L. Frye, Y. Fudamoto, G. Granata, A. Halkola, M. J. Jee, P. S. Kamieneski, A. M. Koekemoer, A. K. Meena, A. B. Newman, S. Nishida, M. Oguri, P. Rosati, S. Schuldt, A. Zitrin, R. Ca˜ nameras, E. E. Hayes, C. Larison, E. Mamuzic, M. Millon, J. D. R. Pierel, L. Tortorelli, and H. Wang, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Lens model comparison and H0 measurement (2025), arXiv:2509.12319 [astro-ph]. source
    • cites [37] S. Ertl, S. H. Suyu, S. Schuldt, G. Granata, C. Grillo, G. B. Caminha, A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, R. Ca˜ nameras, S. Cha, J. M. Diego, N. Foo, B. L. Frye, Y. Fudamoto, A. Halkola, M. J. Jee, P. S. Kamieneski, A. M. Koekemoer, A. K. Meena, S. Nishida, M. Oguri, J. D. R. Pierel, P. Rosati, L. Tortorelli, H. Wang, and A. Zitrin, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Photometry, cluster members, and lens mass model, Astronomy and Astrophysics 702 , A157 (2025). source
    • cites [38] A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, P. Rosati, P. Tozzi, M. Meneghetti, G. B. Caminha, S. Ertl, G. Granata, A. M. Koekemoer, C. Grillo, S. Schuldt, B. L. Frye, and J. M. Diego, Enhanced strong-lensing model of MACS J0138.0-2155 based on new JWST and VLT/MUSE observations, Astronomy and Astrophysics 699 , A101 (2025). source
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § A. Shared SIDM Mass Model · p. 4

    The BCG of MACSJ0138 has a V-band absolute luminosity of 4.94 × 10^11 L⊙ and a stellar mass-to-light ratio Υ∗,V of 2.05.

    “This yields a V-band absolute luminosity of 4 . 94 × 10 11 L ⊙ with a corresponding Υ ∗ ,V of 2 . 05.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [51] M. R. Blanton and S. Roweis, K-Corrections and Filter Transformations in the Ultraviolet, Optical, and NearInfrared, The Astronomical Journal 133 , 734 (2007). source

      Section 6 describes tools for calculating solar absolute magnitudes and converting between filters, and Figure 18 discusses V-band mass-to-light ratios for galaxies generally. Searches for MACSJ0138, its BCG, and the quoted values found no passage reporting a V-band luminosity of 4.94 × 10^11 L⊙ or a stellar mass-to-light ratio of 2.05. The indexed passages provide no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [52]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Our joint model's critical curves appear very consistent with the newest mass models.

    “While the critical curves can only enable a qualitative comparison, we note that ours appear very consistent with the newest mass models, see Fig. 1 of [38] and Fig. 8 of [37].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [38] A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, P. Rosati, P. Tozzi, M. Meneghetti, G. B. Caminha, S. Ertl, G. Granata, A. M. Koekemoer, C. Grillo, S. Schuldt, B. L. Frye, and J. M. Diego, Enhanced strong-lensing model of MACS J0138.0-2155 based on new JWST and VLT/MUSE observations, Astronomy and Astrophysics 699 , A101 (2025). source
    • cites [37] S. Ertl, S. H. Suyu, S. Schuldt, G. Granata, C. Grillo, G. B. Caminha, A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, R. Ca˜ nameras, S. Cha, J. M. Diego, N. Foo, B. L. Frye, Y. Fudamoto, A. Halkola, M. J. Jee, P. S. Kamieneski, A. M. Koekemoer, A. K. Meena, S. Nishida, M. Oguri, J. D. R. Pierel, P. Rosati, L. Tortorelli, H. Wang, and A. Zitrin, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Photometry, cluster members, and lens mass model, Astronomy and Astrophysics 702 , A157 (2025). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § 4. JAM Model and Likelihood · p. 12

    JAM models with spherical and cylindrical alignment have been found to generally agree.

    “As noted in Birrer et al. [65], JAM models with spherical and cylindrical alignment have been found to generally agree [72, 73], and both Shajib et al. [62], Birrer et al. [65] use the spherical alignment in joint models of lensing and dynamics.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim4 of 4 sources checked
    • cites Birrer et al. [65] S. Birrer, E. J. Buckley-Geer, M. Cappellari, F. Courbin, F. Dux, C. D. Fassnacht, J. A. Frieman, A. Galan, D. Gilman, X.-Y. Huang, S. Knabel, D. Langeroodi, H. Lin, M. Millon, T. Morishita, V. Motta, P. Mozumdar, E. Paic, A. J. Shajib, W. Sheu, D. Sluse, A. Sonnenfeld, C. Spiniello, M. Stiavelli, S. H. Suyu, C. Y. Tan, T. Treu, L. V. de Vyvere, H. Wang, P. Wells, D. M. Williams, and K. C. Wong, TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays (2025), arXiv:2506.03023 [astro-ph]. source
    • cites [72] M. Cappellari, Efficient solution of the anisotropic spherically aligned axisymmetric Jeans equations of stellar hydrodynamics for galactic dynamics, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 494 , 4819 (2020). source
    • cites [73] K. Zhu, S. Lu, M. Cappellari, R. Li, S. Mao, and L. Gao, MaNGA DynPop - I. Quality-assessed stellar dynamical modelling from integral-field spectroscopy of 10K nearby galaxies: A catalogue of masses, mass-to-light ratios, density profiles, and dark matter, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 522 , 6326 (2023). source
    • cites Shajib et al. [62] A. J. Shajib, P. Mozumdar, G. C. F. Chen, T. Treu, M. Cappellari, S. Knabel, S. H. Suyu, V. N. Bennert, J. A. Frieman, D. Sluse, S. Birrer, F. Courbin, C. D. Fassnacht, L. Villafa˜ na, and P. R. Williams, TDCOSMO. XII. Improved Hubble constant measurement from lensing time delays using spatially resolved stellar kinematics of the lens galaxy, Astronomy and Astrophysics 673 , A9 (2023). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Acebron et al. [38] noted that their predicted magnifications strongly disagree with previously reported lens models in [30, 31].

    “Acebron et al. [38] similarly noted that their predicted magnifications strongly disagree with previously reported lens models in [30, 31].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Acebron et al. [38] A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, P. Rosati, P. Tozzi, M. Meneghetti, G. B. Caminha, S. Ertl, G. Granata, A. M. Koekemoer, C. Grillo, S. Schuldt, B. L. Frye, and J. M. Diego, Enhanced strong-lensing model of MACS J0138.0-2155 based on new JWST and VLT/MUSE observations, Astronomy and Astrophysics 699 , A101 (2025). source
    • cites [30] A. B. Newman, S. Belli, R. S. Ellis, and S. G. Patel, Resolving Quiescent Galaxies at z ≥ 2. I. Search for Gravitationally Lensed Sources and Characterization of Their Structure, Stellar Populations, and Line Emission, The Astrophysical Journal 862 , 125 (2018). source

      Section 5.1.2, “Magnification Uncertainties” (page unavailable), reports differences between Newman et al.’s own lens models, but does not address Acebron et al.’s predictions or their comparison with the previously reported models in [30, 31]. Searches for Acebron and for disagreement with previous lens models found no passage establishing the attributed statement. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [31] S. A. Rodney, G. B. Brammer, J. D. R. Pierel, J. Richard, S. Toft, K. F. O'Connor, M. Akhshik, and K. E. Whitaker, A gravitationally lensed supernova with an observable two-decade time delay, Nature Astronomy 10.1038/s41550-021-01450-9 (2021). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingreasoning
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    There is good agreement between our results and those of [17, 18].

    “We also note that there is good agreement between our results and those of [17, 18].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [17] L. Sagunski, S. Gad-Nasr, B. Colquhoun, A. Robertson, and S. Tulin, Velocity-dependent self-interacting dark matter from groups and clusters of galaxies, Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics 2021 , 024. source
    • cites [18] K. E. Andrade, J. Fuson, S. Gad-Nasr, D. Kong, Q. Minor, M. G. Roberts, and M. Kaplinghat, A stringent upper limit on dark matter self-interaction cross-section from cluster strong lensing, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 510 , 54 (2022). source
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Lens modeling choices still have a large effect on predicted magnifications near the critical curves: our model agrees more closely with Acebron et al. [38] than with Ertl et al. [37].

    “Lens modeling choices still have a large effect on predicted magnifications near the critical curves: our model agrees more closely with Acebron et al. [38] (which similarly used one cluster halo and an external shear) than it does with Ertl et al. [37] (which used two halos to describe the cluster DM, and no external shear).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Acebron et al. [38] A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, P. Rosati, P. Tozzi, M. Meneghetti, G. B. Caminha, S. Ertl, G. Granata, A. M. Koekemoer, C. Grillo, S. Schuldt, B. L. Frye, and J. M. Diego, Enhanced strong-lensing model of MACS J0138.0-2155 based on new JWST and VLT/MUSE observations, Astronomy and Astrophysics 699 , A101 (2025). source
    • cites Ertl et al. [37] S. Ertl, S. H. Suyu, S. Schuldt, G. Granata, C. Grillo, G. B. Caminha, A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, R. Ca˜ nameras, S. Cha, J. M. Diego, N. Foo, B. L. Frye, Y. Fudamoto, A. Halkola, M. J. Jee, P. S. Kamieneski, A. M. Koekemoer, A. K. Meena, S. Nishida, M. Oguri, J. D. R. Pierel, P. Rosati, L. Tortorelli, H. Wang, and A. Zitrin, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Photometry, cluster members, and lens mass model, Astronomy and Astrophysics 702 , A157 (2025). source

      Section 5.1.2 (p. 12) confirms that Ertl et al. modeled the cluster dark matter with two halo components. Our copy does not establish the citing authors’ comparison with Acebron et al. or explicitly state that Ertl et al. used no external shear. Section 6.2 (p. 15) says Ertl et al.’s models yielded mostly consistent magnifications within 1σ, rather than documenting a large effect near critical curves. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § D. External Shear · p. 17

    Etherington et al. demonstrated in galaxy-galaxy lenses that the magnitude and direction of strong-lensing-derived γext shows little correlation with known weak lensing shear, and is instead highly correlated with the elliptical orientation of the lens itself.

    “While the motivation of this approach is to generically capture and account for any such perturbations, Etherington et al. [82] has demonstrated in galaxy-galaxy lenses that the magnitude and direction of SL-derived γ ext shows little correlation with known weak lensing shear, and is instead highly correlated with the elliptical orientation of the lens itself.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Etherington et al. [82] A. Etherington, J. W. Nightingale, R. Massey, S.-I. Tam, X. Cao, A. Niemiec, Q. He, A. Robertson, R. Li, A. Amvrosiadis, S. Cole, J. M. Diego, C. S. Frenk, B. L. Frye, D. Harvey, M. Jauzac, A. M. Koekemoer, D. J. Lagattuta, S. Lange, M. Limousin, G. Mahler, E. Sirks, and C. L. Steinhardt, Strong gravitational lensing's 'external shear' is not shear, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 531 , 3684 (2024). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Our group has independently measured the Faber-Jackson relation of the members of MACSJ0138, chosen cluster members to include in the SL mass model, identified multiply imaged features to use as constraints, and uses an entirely different modeling code and parametrized mass model from other work on MACSJ0138.

    “We stress that our group has independently measured the Faber-Jackson relation of the members of MACSJ0138[33], chosen cluster members to include in the SL mass model, identified multiply imaged features to use as constraints, and uses an entirely different modeling code and parametrized mass model from other work on MACSJ0138.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [33] A. Flowers, J. H. O'Donnell, T. E. Jeltema, V. Wetzell, and M. G. Roberts, Spectroscopic and X-ray Modeling of the Strong Lensing Galaxy Cluster MACS J0138.0-2155, The Open Journal of Astrophysics 8 , 75 (2025). source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § A. Self-Interacting Dark Matter · p. 2

    Constraints on dwarf and LSB mass scales from fitting rotation curves suggest a higher SIDM cross section, around O(1-10) cm^2/g.

    “Constraints on dwarf and LSB mass scales from fitting rotation curves suggest a higher value, around O (1 -10) cm 2 / g [19].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] T. Ren, A. Kwa, M. Kaplinghat, and H.-B. Yu, Reconciling the Diversity and Uniformity of Galactic Rotation Curves with Self-Interacting Dark Matter, Physical Review X 9 , 031020 (2019), arXiv:1808.05695 [astroph.GA]. source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § 2. Systematics Test and Covariance · p. 11

    Knabel et al. demonstrated that the leading systematic uncertainty comes from the choice of template library, and that this uncertainty is at most O(3-4%) in fits to MUSE spectra.

    “Note that while Knabel et al. [64] have demonstrated the leading systematic uncertainty comes from the choice of template library, and advocate comparing a wide array of such libraries, they demonstrate this uncertainty is at most O (3-4%) in fits to MUSE spectra.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Knabel et al. [64] S. Knabel, P. Mozumdar, A. J. Shajib, T. Treu, M. Cappellari, C. Spiniello, and S. Birrer, TDCOSMO XIX: Measuring stellar velocity dispersion with sub-percent accuracy for cosmography (2025), arXiv:2502.16034 [astroph]. source

      Section 4.4.1 (p. 9) identifies template choice as the dominant potential systematic error, and the Summary (p. 17) recommends comparing all three clean libraries. The claimed 3–4% ceiling does not describe the MUSE results: Section 6.1 (p. 15) reports a template-choice error well below 1% with BIC weighting, while Section 4.3 (p. 9) says differences between full and clean libraries for some MUSE fits reach 5% or more. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Acebron et al. [38] suggests that the discrepancy between their reported magnifications and earlier work could be partly explained by the inclusion of newly identified sources at different redshift.

    “Acebron et al. [38] suggests that the discrepancy between their reported magnifications and earlier work could be partly explained by the inclusion of newly identified sources at different redshift.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Acebron et al. [38] A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, P. Rosati, P. Tozzi, M. Meneghetti, G. B. Caminha, S. Ertl, G. Granata, A. M. Koekemoer, C. Grillo, S. Schuldt, B. L. Frye, and J. M. Diego, Enhanced strong-lensing model of MACS J0138.0-2155 based on new JWST and VLT/MUSE observations, Astronomy and Astrophysics 699 , A101 (2025). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingnone given
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Compared to [37], we predict |μ| approximately 20% lower for the observed image groups (a,b,c).

    “Compared to [37], we predict | µ | approximately 20% lower for the observed image groups (a,b,c).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [37] S. Ertl, S. H. Suyu, S. Schuldt, G. Granata, C. Grillo, G. B. Caminha, A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, R. Ca˜ nameras, S. Cha, J. M. Diego, N. Foo, B. L. Frye, Y. Fudamoto, A. Halkola, M. J. Jee, P. S. Kamieneski, A. M. Koekemoer, A. K. Meena, S. Nishida, M. Oguri, J. D. R. Pierel, P. Rosati, L. Tortorelli, H. Wang, and A. Zitrin, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Photometry, cluster members, and lens mass model, Astronomy and Astrophysics 702 , A157 (2025). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    [38] lists the demagnified central image 1e* as having opposite sign, with a negative magnification.

    “Curiously, [38] lists the demagnified central image 1e* as having opposite sign, with a negative magnification.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [38] A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, P. Rosati, P. Tozzi, M. Meneghetti, G. B. Caminha, S. Ertl, G. Granata, A. M. Koekemoer, C. Grillo, S. Schuldt, B. L. Frye, and J. M. Diego, Enhanced strong-lensing model of MACS J0138.0-2155 based on new JWST and VLT/MUSE observations, Astronomy and Astrophysics 699 , A101 (2025). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Agreement between our predicted magnifications and those in [37, 38] does not exclude systematic effects distorting the true magnifications, but it is encouraging that these models agree with ours despite substantial differences in approach.

    “While agreement between our predicted magnifications and those in [37, 38] does not exclude systematic effects distorting the true magnifications, it is encouraging that these models agree with ours despite substantial differences in approach.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [37] S. Ertl, S. H. Suyu, S. Schuldt, G. Granata, C. Grillo, G. B. Caminha, A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, R. Ca˜ nameras, S. Cha, J. M. Diego, N. Foo, B. L. Frye, Y. Fudamoto, A. Halkola, M. J. Jee, P. S. Kamieneski, A. M. Koekemoer, A. K. Meena, S. Nishida, M. Oguri, J. D. R. Pierel, P. Rosati, L. Tortorelli, H. Wang, and A. Zitrin, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Photometry, cluster members, and lens mass model, Astronomy and Astrophysics 702 , A157 (2025). source
    • cites [38] A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, P. Rosati, P. Tozzi, M. Meneghetti, G. B. Caminha, S. Ertl, G. Granata, A. M. Koekemoer, C. Grillo, S. Schuldt, B. L. Frye, and J. M. Diego, Enhanced strong-lensing model of MACS J0138.0-2155 based on new JWST and VLT/MUSE observations, Astronomy and Astrophysics 699 , A101 (2025). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § V. DISCUSSION · p. 18

    Wang et al. [68] do not combine stellar kinematics with pixel-level image modeling, and only present joint posteriors for a conjugate point likelihood with kinematics.

    “Wang et al. [68] therefore do not combine stellar kinematics with pixel-level image modeling, and only present joint posteriors for a conjugate point likelihood with kinematics, similar to what was done here.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Wang et al. [68] H. Wang, R. Ca˜ nameras, G. B. Caminha, S. H. Suyu, A. Yıldırım, G. Chiriv` ı, L. Christensen, C. Grillo, and S. Schuldt, Constraining the multi-scale dark-matter distribution in CASSOWARY 31 with strong gravitational lensing and stellar dynamics, Astronomy and Astrophysics 668 , A162 (2022). source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § C. Lensing Cluster MACS J0138.0-2155 · p. 3

    MACSJ0138 is a relaxed, non-merging cluster with close to spherical symmetry.

    “It is known to be a relaxed, non-merging cluster, whose primary lensed source is a bright, quiescent galaxy at redshift 1.95. This source appears in at least 5 separate images, surrounding the cluster's center; furthermore, Xray data show it to be a relaxed system, exhibiting close to spherical symmetry [33].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [33] A. Flowers, J. H. O'Donnell, T. E. Jeltema, V. Wetzell, and M. G. Roberts, Spectroscopic and X-ray Modeling of the Strong Lensing Galaxy Cluster MACS J0138.0-2155, The Open Journal of Astrophysics 8 , 75 (2025). source

      The Abstract (p. 1) and X-ray Properties (p. 7) describe MACS0138 as relaxed and report nearly circular X-ray emission within the lensing region (ellipticity 0.12 ± 0.03). They do not establish that the cluster is non-merging or close to spherical in three dimensions; the Discussion (p. 8) notes that a lens model finds a highly elliptical dark-matter halo. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § A. Self-Interacting Dark Matter · p. 2

    Roberts et al. [20] suggests that σ/m could be as high as 20-40 cm^2/g at dwarf/LSB mass scales when SIDM-induced core collapse is accounted for.

    “However, Roberts et al. [20] suggests that σ/m could be as high as 20 -40 cm 2 / g at this mass scale, when SIDM-induced core collapse is accounted for.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [20] M. G. Roberts, M. Kaplinghat, M. Valli, and H.-B. Yu, Gravothermal collapse and the diversity of galactic rotation curves, Physical Review D 111 , 103041 (2025). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § C. Lensing Cluster MACS J0138.0-2155 · p. 3

    MACSJ0138 is the first known lens system to host multiple strongly-lensed supernovae.

    “making this the first known lens system to host multiple strongly-lensed SNe.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [32] J. D. R. Pierel, A. B. Newman, S. Dhawan, M. Gu, B. A. Joshi, T. Li, S. Schuldt, L. G. Strolger, S. H. Suyu, G. B. Caminha, S. H. Cohen, J. M. Diego, J. C. J. D´ Silva, S. Ertl, B. L. Frye, G. Granata, C. Grillo, A. M. Koekemoer, J. Li, A. Robotham, J. Summers, T. Treu, R. A. Windhorst, A. Zitrin, S. Agarwal, A. Agrawal, N. Arendse, S. Belli, C. Burns, R. Ca˜ nameras, S. Chakrabarti, W. Chen, T. E. Collett, D. A. Coulter, R. S. Ellis, M. Engesser, N. Foo, O. D. Fox, C. Gall, N. Garuda, S. Gezari, S. Gomez, K. Glazebrook, J. Hjorth, X. Huang, S. W. Jha, P. S. Kamieneski, P. Kelly, C. Larison, L source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    The absolute magnifications |μ| for predicted images 1d* and 1e* of SN Encore are nearly identical to [38].

    “The absolute magnifications | µ | for predicted images 1d* and 1e* of SN Encore are nearly identical to [38] as well 7 .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [38] A. Acebron, P. Bergamini, P. Rosati, P. Tozzi, M. Meneghetti, G. B. Caminha, S. Ertl, G. Granata, A. M. Koekemoer, C. Grillo, S. Schuldt, B. L. Frye, and J. M. Diego, Enhanced strong-lensing model of MACS J0138.0-2155 based on new JWST and VLT/MUSE observations, Astronomy and Astrophysics 699 , A101 (2025). source

      Section 4.4 (pp. 9–10) reports model-predicted magnifications for SN Encore images 1d and 1e, including μ₁ₑ ≈ −0.4. That supports citing this paper as a source of comparison values, but our copy cannot establish that the citing authors’ values are nearly identical to them. It also qualifies the 1e prediction: it appears in only 15% of the model chains. (LLM, conf=0.78)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § V. DISCUSSION · p. 18

    Wang et al. [68] notes that combining strong lensing and kinematics measurements is a potential difficulty.

    “Wang et al. [68], which also studied a strong lensing cluster, notes this as a potential difficulty in combining strong lensing and kinematics measurements.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Wang et al. [68] H. Wang, R. Ca˜ nameras, G. B. Caminha, S. H. Suyu, A. Yıldırım, G. Chiriv` ı, L. Christensen, C. Grillo, and S. Schuldt, Constraining the multi-scale dark-matter distribution in CASSOWARY 31 with strong gravitational lensing and stellar dynamics, Astronomy and Astrophysics 668 , A162 (2022). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § B. Cluster SIDM constraints · p. 2

    Sagunski et al. [17] found a clear preference for non-zero SIDM cross-sections, with σ/m = 0.19 ± 0.09 cm^2/g at cluster scales and σ/m = 0.5 ± 0.2 cm^2/g at group scales.

    “Their results show a clear preference for non-zero cross-sections, with σ/m = 0 . 19 ± 0 . 09 cm 2 / g at cluster scales, and σ/m = 0 . 5 ± 0 . 2 cm 2 / g at group scales.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [17] L. Sagunski, S. Gad-Nasr, B. Colquhoun, A. Robertson, and S. Tulin, Velocity-dependent self-interacting dark matter from groups and clusters of galaxies, Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics 2021 , 024. source

      The table reproduced in V. Conclusions gives the quoted group and cluster cross-sections and uncertainties. But that section calls the preference for a nonzero cross-section “mild,” not clear; B. Cross sections likewise says it is “not very strong.” No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.91)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § Appendix C: Robustness of the Measured Stellar Kinematics · p. 24

    Knabel et al. [64] demonstrated that the choice of stellar template library is often the dominant source of systematic uncertainty in similar measurements.

    “Knabel et al. [64] has rigorously explored systematic uncertainty in similar measurements with the goal of subpercent precision σ v measurements, and demonstrated that the choice of stellar template library is often the dominant source of systematic uncertainty.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Knabel et al. [64] S. Knabel, P. Mozumdar, A. J. Shajib, T. Treu, M. Cappellari, C. Spiniello, and S. Birrer, TDCOSMO XIX: Measuring stellar velocity dispersion with sub-percent accuracy for cosmography (2025), arXiv:2502.16034 [astroph]. source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductcitation
    § Appendix C: Robustness of the Measured Stellar Kinematics · p. 23

    Measurements of stellar kinematics can be highly sensitive to analysis choices, and we have drawn on recent work, particularly [62, 64], to ensure our measurements are as robust as possible.

    “Measurements of stellar kinematics can be highly sensitive to analysis choices, and we have drawn on recent work, particularly [62, 64], to ensure our measurements are as robust as possible.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [62] A. J. Shajib, P. Mozumdar, G. C. F. Chen, T. Treu, M. Cappellari, S. Knabel, S. H. Suyu, V. N. Bennert, J. A. Frieman, D. Sluse, S. Birrer, F. Courbin, C. D. Fassnacht, L. Villafa˜ na, and P. R. Williams, TDCOSMO. XII. Improved Hubble constant measurement from lensing time delays using spatially resolved stellar kinematics of the lens galaxy, Astronomy and Astrophysics 673 , A9 (2023). source
    • cites [64] S. Knabel, P. Mozumdar, A. J. Shajib, T. Treu, M. Cappellari, C. Spiniello, and S. Birrer, TDCOSMO XIX: Measuring stellar velocity dispersion with sub-percent accuracy for cosmography (2025), arXiv:2502.16034 [astroph]. source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation
    § Appendix C: Robustness of the Measured Stellar Kinematics · p. 24

    Our statistical uncertainty is large compared to [62, 64] in part because we use a less stringent SNR target inspired by [21].

    “However, our statistical uncertainty is large compared to [62, 64] in part because we use a less stringent SNR target inspired by [21].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [62] A. J. Shajib, P. Mozumdar, G. C. F. Chen, T. Treu, M. Cappellari, S. Knabel, S. H. Suyu, V. N. Bennert, J. A. Frieman, D. Sluse, S. Birrer, F. Courbin, C. D. Fassnacht, L. Villafa˜ na, and P. R. Williams, TDCOSMO. XII. Improved Hubble constant measurement from lensing time delays using spatially resolved stellar kinematics of the lens galaxy, Astronomy and Astrophysics 673 , A9 (2023). source
    • cites [64] S. Knabel, P. Mozumdar, A. J. Shajib, T. Treu, M. Cappellari, C. Spiniello, and S. Birrer, TDCOSMO XIX: Measuring stellar velocity dispersion with sub-percent accuracy for cosmography (2025), arXiv:2502.16034 [astroph]. source
    • cites [21] A. B. Newman, T. Treu, R. S. Ellis, D. J. Sand, C. Nipoti, J. Richard, and E. Jullo, The Density Profiles of Massive, Relaxed Galaxy Clusters. I. The Total Density Over Three Decades in Radius, The Astrophysical Journal 765 , 24 (2013).

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § Appendix B: Triaxiality and Concentration Bias · p. 22

    The majority of cluster halos in the universe are expected to be roughly prolate.

    “The majority of cluster halos in the universe are expected to be roughly prolate [94]; as such, we allow for a prolate, rather than oblate or fully triaxial ellipticity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [94] M. Bonamigo, G. Despali, M. Limousin, R. Angulo, C. Giocoli, and G. Soucail, Universality of dark matter haloes shape over six decades in mass: Insights from the Millennium XXL and SBARBINE simulations, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 449 , 3171 (2015). source
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § E. Supernovae Requiem and Encore · p. 18

    The lensing-only model provides very poor constraints on the magnifications, while our joint model including kinematics yields clear predictions.

    “While the lensing-only model provides very poor constraints on the magnifications, our joint model including kinematics yields clear predictions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 17

    While the kinematics and lensing models alone both prefer a cluster halo with relatively high concentration, the significance of this preference increases in the joint model.

    “While the kinematics and lensing models alone both prefer a cluster halo with relatively high concentration, the significance of this preference increases in the joint model.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § B. Kinematics-Only Results · p. 15

    The kinematics model prefers an anisotropy βsph < 0, implying σθ/σr > 1.

    “Our kinematics model prefers an anisotropy β sph &lt; 0, implying σ θ /σ r &gt; 1.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Considerable uncertainty exists on the value of the velocity anisotropy β.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § B. Kinematics-Only Results · p. 15

    The PSF size σPSF is entirely unconstrained but demonstrates almost no degeneracy with any other parameters.

    “While the PSF size σ PSF is entirely unconstrained, it fortunately demonstrates almost no degeneracy with any other parameters.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The PSF is a single-component Gaussian.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingcitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Our model predicted value of Δt1a,1b = 41 ± 4 days is consistent with Pierel et al.'s measurement.

    “Additionally, Pierel et al. [87] reported a measurement of the time delay between SN Encore images 1a and 1b of ∆ t 1 b, 1 a = -39 . 8 +3 . 9 -3 . 3 days, consistent with our model predicted value of ∆ t 1 a, 1 b = -∆ t 1 b, 1 a = 41 ± 4 days (see Table III).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § D. External Shear · p. 17

    The nearby mass has a significant effect on the position angle of the shear, extending the posteriors to include the orientation of the central galaxy of MACSJ0138.

    “While the effect on the shear magnitude | γ ext | is slight, the nearby mass has a significant effect on the position angle of the shear, extending the posteriors to include the orientation of the central galaxy of MACSJ0138.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 16

    The stellar mass-to-light ratio Υ∗ is strongly degenerate with the SIDM cross section σ/m, with higher cross sections occurring exclusively at high Υ∗.

    “In addition, the stellar mass-to-light ratio Υ ∗ is strongly degenerate with the SIDM cross section σ/m , with higher cross sections occurring exclusively at high Υ ∗ .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § 1. Measuring the Kinematics Map · p. 9

    The central galaxy of MACS J0138-2155 exhibits strong emission lines.

    “We note that this central galaxy exhibits strong emission lines, potentially associated with an AGN and star formation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § V. DISCUSSION · p. 18

    The joint model provides notably tighter constraints on the mass and concentration, and a more stringent upper limit on the SIDM interaction cross-section.

    “The joint model provides notably tighter constraints on the mass and concentration, and a more stringent upper limit on the SIDM interaction crosssection.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § D. External Shear · p. 17

    The test with the extra mass yielded a minimum lensing χ2 of 3.5, significantly lower than the best lensing χ2 of 4.08 from the fiducial joint model.

    “Our lensing constraints additionally show a clear preference for the presence of this other mass: this test yielded a minimum lensing χ 2 of 3.5, significantly lower than the best lensing χ 2 of 4.08 produced by the fiducial joint model.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 15

    The radial critical curve divides the central and North-East images near a point where their light is dimmest.

    “As expected, the tangential critical curve divides the southern arc neatly into two images of positive and negative magnification, and the radial critical curve divides the central and North-East images near a point where their light is dimmest.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Our predictions for (d,e) are more discrepant, where our predictions are 60% higher and approximately 2-5x lower respectively.

    “Our predictions for (d,e) are more discrepant, where our predictions are 60% higher and ∼ 2-5x lower respectively.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § B. Kinematics-Only Results · p. 14

    The best-fit kinematics-only model yields a reduced χ2 of 2.76.

    “The best-fit model yields a reduced χ 2 of 2.76.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 15

    The tangential critical curve divides the southern arc neatly into two images of positive and negative magnification.

    “As expected, the tangential critical curve divides the southern arc neatly into two images of positive and negative magnification, and the radial critical curve divides the central and North-East images near a point where their light is dimmest.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    Our joint results still exhibit a clear bimodality, with one mode at high values of Υ∗, σ/m, and ⟨v pair⟩, and one at lower values of those three parameters.

    “Notably, our joint results still exhibit a clear bimodality, with one mode at high values of Υ ∗ , σ/m , and ⟨ v pair ⟩ , and one at lower values of those three parameters.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § 3. BCG Light Profile · p. 11

    The best-fit Multi-Gaussian Expansion of the central galaxy's light profile contains 6 Gaussian components.

    “Using an initial ngauss of 30, the resulting best-fit MGE contains 6 Gaussian components.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Both our lensing-only and joint models yield a small, best-fit RMS of 0.11 arcsec.

    “Nevertheless, both our lensing-only and joint models yield a small, best-fit RMS of 0.11 arcsec.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § A. Lensing-Only Results · p. 13

    The position of the overall dark matter halo is consistent with the center of the BCG, although lensing alone favors a halo centered slightly to the south.

    “The position of the overall DM halo is also consistent with the center of the BCG, although the lensing alone favors a DM halo centered slightly to the south.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § 1. Measuring the Kinematics Map · p. 9

    The stellar component of the central galaxy shows negligible rotation.

    “The stellar component shows negligible rotation, as expected in a BCG.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 15

    The best-fit kinematics map from the joint model is nearly identical to that of the kinematics-only model, with a non-reduced χ2 of 45.5 compared to 44.3 for the kinematics model.

    “The best-fit kinematics map from this joint model is nearly identical to that of the kinematics-only model, with a (non-reduced) χ 2 of 45.5, compared to 44.3 for the kinematics model shown in Figure 9.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § B. Kinematics-Only Results · p. 14

    The kinematics model alone yields parameters highly consistent with the lensing-only model: the posteriors on Υ∗ are similar, and in M200m-c200m space the 1σ posteriors of the lensing-only model lie almost entirely within those of the kinematics-only model.

    “It is reassuring, however, that the kinematics model alone yields parameters that are highly consistent with the lensing-only model: the posteriors on Υ ∗ are similar, and in M 200m -c 200m space, the 1 σ posteriors of the lensing-only model lie almost entirely within those of the kinematics-only model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § V. DISCUSSION · p. 18

    Our results exhibit a strong bimodality in the stellar mass-to-light ratio Υ∗, and less so in the SIDM cross section.

    “Our results exhibit a strong bimodality in the stellar mass-to-light ratio Υ ∗ , and less so in the SIDM cross section.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § D. External Shear · p. 17

    Allowing for the nearby mass slightly decreases the derived shear magnitude.

    “Allowing for the nearby mass slightly decreases the derived shear magnitude, suggesting this mass can only partly explain the observed shear.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § D. External Shear · p. 17

    The presence of the extra mass results in little change to our parameters of interest compared to the joint model; the posteriors on Υ∗, M200m, c200m, and σ/m are all consistent within 1σ.

    “Nevertheless, the presence of the extra mass results in little change to our parameters of interest compared to the joint model; the posteriors on Υ ∗ , M 200m , c 200m , and σ/m are all consistent within 1 σ .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingreasoning
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 15

    emcee was able to sample the joint model more efficiently than the lensing-only model, despite the joint model having slightly higher dimensionality and a more expensive likelihood.

    “Reassuringly, emcee was able to sample the joint model more efficiently than the lensing-only model, despite having slightly higher dimensionality and a more expensive likelihood.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    The kinematics map measured in this work was computed from MUSE observations.

    “While the kinematics map measured in this work was computed from MUSE observations, there exist newer, deeper MUSE observations on this system.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Our results disagree significantly with the earlier model in Rodney et al. [31], which gave |μ| of observed images roughly 3-5x lower than ours, and a significantly longer time-delay.

    “Our results, however, disagree significantly with the earlier model in Rodney et al. [31], which gave | µ | of observed images roughly 3-5x lower than ours, and a significantly longer time-delay.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rodney et al. [31] S. A. Rodney, G. B. Brammer, J. D. R. Pierel, J. Richard, S. Toft, K. F. O'Connor, M. Akhshik, and K. E. Whitaker, A gravitationally lensed supernova with an observable two-decade time delay, Nature Astronomy 10.1038/s41550-021-01450-9 (2021). source
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    While there is some velocity offset, each constraint is assumed to be velocity-independent locally, but all constraints are consistent with the typical 1/v4 global velocity-dependent behavior of SIDM theory curves in this large velocity limit [1].

    “While there is some velocity offset, each constraint is assumed to be velocityindependent locally, but all constraints are consistent with the typical 1 /v 4 global velocity-dependent behavior of SIDM theory curves in this large velocity limit [1].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [1]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: Each SIDM constraint is velocity-independent locally.
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Appendix C: Robustness of the Measured Stellar Kinematics · p. 24

    Total uncertainty is of order approximately 10% in each Voronoi bin, and systematic uncertainty is subdominant to statistical uncertainty in all bins save for bin 9, the northernmost bin.

    “Total uncertainty is of order ∼ 10% in each bin, and systematic uncertainty is subdominant to statistical uncertainty in all bins save for bin 9, the northernmost bin.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 15

    The joint model posteriors were estimated with two separate emcee samplers of 48 walkers each to verify robustness.

    “As in Section IV A, we run two separate emcee samplers of 48 walkers each to verify the robustness of these results.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Our mass model is higher quality than that in [31], which predicted an unreasonably large ellipticity for the overall halo and a BCG more massive than the overall halo.

    “We do not consider this problematic, as we believe our mass model to be higher quality than that in [31], which predicted an unreasonably large ellipticity for the overall halo and a BCG more massive than the overall halo.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] S. A. Rodney, G. B. Brammer, J. D. R. Pierel, J. Richard, S. Toft, K. F. O'Connor, M. Akhshik, and K. E. Whitaker, A gravitationally lensed supernova with an observable two-decade time delay, Nature Astronomy 10.1038/s41550-021-01450-9 (2021). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    The density profile inferred from X-ray observations of the ICM could be particularly powerful for SIDM studies, as it constrains the cluster halo at similar radii as SL.

    “The density profile inferred from X-ray observations of the ICM could be particularly powerful for SIDM studies, as it constrains the cluster halo at similar radii as SL.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § 2. Systematics Test and Covariance · p. 11

    The resulting kinematics map is consistent across all settings, with systematic uncertainty subdominant to statistical uncertainty in all but one spatial bin.

    “We find our resulting kinematics map to be consistent across all settings, with systematic uncertainty subdominant to statistical uncertainty in all but one spatial bin.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Measurements of stellar velocity dispersions can be highly sensitive to the wavelength range used, the choice of template library, and the degree of the polynomial used to model background.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data
    § A. Lensing-Only Results · p. 13

    The lensing-only model posteriors were estimated with two independent emcee samplers of 48 walkers each to verify robustness.

    “As stated above, two independent emcee samplers of 48 walkers each were run for this model, in order to verify the robustness of posteriors.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationnone given
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    Extending the methodology in this work to a sample of clusters would greatly improve constraints on SIDM.

    “Extending the methodology in this work to a sample of clusters would greatly improve constraints on SIDM.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § V. DISCUSSION · p. 18

    Both probes used here, lensing and kinematics, are indifferent to any distinction between baryonic and dark mass, and measure the total mass present.

    “Both probes used here (lensing and kinematics) are indifferent to any distinction between baryonic and dark mass, and measure the total mass present.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    This is unlikely to be true, as our model agrees with theirs despite not using the newly discovered sources.

    “However, this is unlikely to be true, as our model agrees with theirs despite not using the newly discovered sources.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § B. Kinematics-Only Results · p. 14

    The stellar kinematics is most sensitive to the total mass within approximately 20 kpc, and has only weak constraining power on the mass and concentration of the overall halo.

    “As expected, the stellar kinematics is most sensitive to the total mass within ∼ 20kpc, and has only weak constraining power on the mass and concentration of the overall halo.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § B. Kinematics-Only Results · p. 15

    Shajib et al. similarly found σθ/σr > 1 in both ground- and space-based IFU measurements of a galaxy-scale lens.

    “Shajib et al. [66] similarly found σ θ /σ r &gt; 1 in both groundand space-based IFU measurements of a galaxy-scale lens.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Shajib et al. [66] A. J. Shajib, T. Treu, S. H. Suyu, D. Law, A. Yıldırım, M. Cappellari, A. Galan, S. Knabel, H. Wang, S. Birrer, F. Courbin, C. D. Fassnacht, J. A. Frieman, A. Melo, T. Morishita, P. Mozumdar, D. Sluse, and M. Stiavelli, TDCOSMO XXIII. First spatially resolved kinematics of the lens galaxy obtained using JWST-NIRSpec to improve time-delay cosmography (2025), arXiv:2506.21665 [astro-ph]. source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § A Constraint on Dark Matter Self-Interaction from Combined Strong Lensing and Stellar Kinematics in MACS J0138-2155 · p. 1

    The results imply SN Requiem will reappear sooner than previously reported, with a 1σ CL between January 2027 and November 2028 at H0 = 67.7 km s−1 Mpc−1.

    “imply SN Requiem will reappear sooner than previously reported, with a 1 σ CL between January 2027 and November 2028 at H 0 = 67 . 7 km s -1 Mpc -1 .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    Observations of these images would enable a time-delay measurement of the Hubble constant of unprecedented precision from a single system.

    “Observations of these images would enable a time-delay measurement of the Hubble constant of unprecedented precision from a single system.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    The study which discovered SN Requiem [31] predicted a approximately 20 year time delay, with the next images appearing in the mid to late 2030s.

    “The study which discovered SN Requiem [31] predicted a ∼ 20 year time delay, with the next images appearing in the mid to late 2030s.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] S. A. Rodney, G. B. Brammer, J. D. R. Pierel, J. Richard, S. Toft, K. F. O'Connor, M. Akhshik, and K. E. Whitaker, A gravitationally lensed supernova with an observable two-decade time delay, Nature Astronomy 10.1038/s41550-021-01450-9 (2021). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation
    § V. DISCUSSION · p. 18

    Combining lensing data with hundreds of data d.o.f. with kinematics likelihoods of typically a few dozen d.o.f. can yield minimal change over a lensing-only model, as the χ2 of the lensing data will typically dwarf the χ2 of the much smaller kinematics data vector.

    “Combining lensing data with hundreds of data d.o.f., with kinematics likelihoods of typically a few dozen d.o.f., can therefore yield minimal change over a lensing-only model, as the χ 2 of the lensing data will typically dwarf the χ 2 of the much smaller kinematics data vector.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § B. Kinematics-Only Results · p. 14

    The lensing-only and kinematics-only SIDM cross section values are consistent, justifying a combination of both lensing and kinematics constraints.

    “Nevertheless, they are consistent, justifying a combination of both lensing and kinematics constraints.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Pierel et al. [87] reported a measurement of the time delay between SN Encore images 1a and 1b of Δt1b,1a = -39.8+3.9-3.3 days.

    “Additionally, Pierel et al. [87] reported a measurement of the time delay between SN Encore images 1a and 1b of ∆ t 1 b, 1 a = -39 . 8 +3 . 9 -3 . 3 days, consistent with our model predicted value of ∆ t 1 a, 1 b = -∆ t 1 b, 1 a = 41 ± 4 days (see Table III).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Pierel et al. [87] J. D. R. Pierel, E. E. Hayes, M. Millon, C. Larison, E. Mamuzic, A. Acebron, A. Agrawal, P. Bergamini, S. Cha, S. Dhawan, J. M. Diego, B. L. Frye, D. Gilman, G. Granata, C. Grillo, M. J. Jee, P. S. Kamieneski, A. M. Koekemoer, A. K. Meena, A. B. Newman, M. Oguri, E. Padilla-Gonzalez, F. Poidevin, P. Rosati, S. Schuldt, L. G. Strolger, S. H. Suyu, S. Thorp, and A. Zitrin, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Time delays &amp; Hubble constant measurement (2025), arXiv:2509.12301 [astro-ph]. source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Suyu et al. [86] and Pierel et al. [87] reported constraints on H0 from both lensed SNe in this system, combining seven independent models using six different codes.

    “Shortly after the completion of this work, Suyu et al. [86] and Pierel et al. [87] reported constraints on H 0 from both lensed SNe in this system, combining seven independent models using six different codes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Suyu et al. [86] S. H. Suyu, A. Acebron, C. Grillo, P. Bergamini, G. B. Caminha, S. Cha, J. M. Diego, S. Ertl, N. Foo, B. L. Frye, Y. Fudamoto, G. Granata, A. Halkola, M. J. Jee, P. S. Kamieneski, A. M. Koekemoer, A. K. Meena, A. B. Newman, S. Nishida, M. Oguri, P. Rosati, S. Schuldt, A. Zitrin, R. Ca˜ nameras, E. E. Hayes, C. Larison, E. Mamuzic, M. Millon, J. D. R. Pierel, L. Tortorelli, and H. Wang, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Lens model comparison and H0 measurement (2025), arXiv:2509.12319 [astro-ph]. source
    • cites Pierel et al. [87] J. D. R. Pierel, E. E. Hayes, M. Millon, C. Larison, E. Mamuzic, A. Acebron, A. Agrawal, P. Bergamini, S. Cha, S. Dhawan, J. M. Diego, B. L. Frye, D. Gilman, G. Granata, C. Grillo, M. J. Jee, P. S. Kamieneski, A. M. Koekemoer, A. K. Meena, A. B. Newman, M. Oguri, E. Padilla-Gonzalez, F. Poidevin, P. Rosati, S. Schuldt, L. G. Strolger, S. H. Suyu, S. Thorp, and A. Zitrin, Cosmology with supernova Encore in the strong lensing cluster MACS J0138-2155: Time delays &amp; Hubble constant measurement (2025), arXiv:2509.12301 [astro-ph]. source
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 15

    Both independent joint sampling runs yielded nearly identical posteriors, and the posteriors are robust.

    “Both independent sampling runs yielded nearly identical posteriors, and we consider these posteriors to be robust.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisenone given
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    Other probes of the cluster density profile exist with very different systematics, such as X-ray observations of the hot intracluster medium (ICM) and weak lensing measurements.

    “Fortunately, other probes of the cluster density profile exist with very different systematics, such as X-ray observations of the hot intracluster medium (ICM) and weak lensing measurements.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 15

    The two joint samplers ran for over 660,000 iterations, yielding mean autocorrelation times of approximately 21,400 and 22,900 iterations, substantially shorter than for the lensing-only model.

    “The two joint samplers both ran for over 660,000 iterations, yielding a mean autocorrelation time across all parameters of ∼ 21 , 400 and ∼ 22 , 900 iterations, substantially shorter than for the lensing-only model.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § A. Lensing-Only Results · p. 13

    The long autocorrelation time suggests that emcee struggled to efficiently sample the lensing-only parameter space, likely due to a complex likelihood surface.

    “This extremely long autocorrelation time suggests that emcee struggled to efficiently sample this parameter space, likely due to a complex likelihood surface.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation
    § V. DISCUSSION · p. 18

    Our result on c200m may be further evidence of MACSJ0138's relaxed state.

    “Additionally, dynamically relaxed halos are expected to have higher concentrations [83-85]; our result on c 200m may be further evidence of MACSJ0138's relaxed state.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    We consider this to likely be a mistake, demagnified central images always have positive parity.

    “We consider this to likely be a mistake, demagnified central images always have positive parity.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    Improved knowledge of the true stellar mass-to-light ratio of BCGs could break this degeneracy, providing tighter constraints on the inner dark matter halo.

    “Improved knowledge of the true stellar mass-to-light ratio of BCGs could therefore break this degeneracy, providing tighter constraints on the inner dark matter halo.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    The selection effects inherent in such a sample remain a concern, as strong lensing halos are preferentially concentrated and elongated along the line-of-sight.

    “The selection effects inherent in such a sample remain a concern, as strong lensing halos are preferentially concentrated and elongated along the line-of-sight.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationown data
    § C. Combined Strong Lensing and Kinematics Results · p. 15

    The kinematics constraints contribute to a smoothing-out of the likelihood surface.

    “This suggests the kinematics constraints contribute to a 'smoothing-out' of the likelihood surface.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Reliable estimates of the lensing magnification are essential to any study of lensed sources and for accurate photometric classification of the observed SNe.

    “Reliable estimates of the lensing magnification are essential to any study of lensed sources, such as [36], and for accurate photometric classification of the observed SNe [31].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [36]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [31] S. A. Rodney, G. B. Brammer, J. D. R. Pierel, J. Richard, S. Toft, K. F. O'Connor, M. Akhshik, and K. E. Whitaker, A gravitationally lensed supernova with an observable two-decade time delay, Nature Astronomy 10.1038/s41550-021-01450-9 (2021). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data
    § A. Lensing-Only Results · p. 13

    The two independent samplers for the lensing-only model yielded consistent estimates of the mean autocorrelation time.

    “Both samplers ran for over 1,220,000 iterations, and yielded consistent estimates of the mean autocorrelation time of ∼ 52 , 450 and ∼ 52 , 270 iterations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § A. Consistency with Other Mass Models · p. 20

    Our model yields a much lower delay of roughly 12 years, in which case SN Requiem would be seen again in the next few years, likely before 2030.

    “Our model yields a much lower delay of roughly ∼ 12 years, in which case SN Requiem would be seen again in the next few years, likely before 2030 (see Table III).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    Our results differ significantly, implying a baseline of roughly 12 years, with SNe Requiem and Encore likely reappearing in 2027-2028 and 2033-2034, respectively.

    “Our results differ significantly, implying a baseline of roughly 12 years, with SNe Requiem and Encore likely reappearing in 2027-2028 and 2033-2034, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Appendix B: Triaxiality and Concentration Bias · p. 23

    While this correctly inflates the observed lensing, the mass and concentration of the halo are no longer meaningful: the apparent lensing now corresponds to a halo of mass M/s.

    “While this correctly inflates the observed lensing, the mass and concentration of the halo are no longer meaningful: the apparent lensing now corresponds to a halo of mass M/s .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Appendix C: Robustness of the Measured Stellar Kinematics · p. 24

    A higher target spectral SNR threshold would yield fewer Voronoi bins, with lower statistical uncertainties.

    “A higher target spectral SNR threshold would yield fewer Voronoi bins, with lower statistical uncertainties.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § Appendix B: Triaxiality and Concentration Bias · p. 22

    Strong lensing selected halos are biased to high concentrations and additionally exhibit a severe triaxial bias: halos elongated along the line-of-sight are more likely to exhibit strong lensing.

    “While it is well known that strong lensing selected halos are biased to high concentrations, they additionally exhibit a severe triaxial bias: halos elongated along the line-of-sight are more likely to exhibit strong lensing.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data
    § Appendix C: Robustness of the Measured Stellar Kinematics · p. 24

    In this work we exclusively used the XSL template library, limiting our ability to characterize this uncertainty.

    “In this work we exclusively used the XSL template library, limiting our ability to characterize this uncertainty.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § VI. CONCLUSIONS · p. 21

    There exist newer, deeper MUSE observations on this system.

    “While the kinematics map measured in this work was computed from MUSE observations, there exist newer, deeper MUSE observations on this system.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Appendix C: Robustness of the Measured Stellar Kinematics · p. 24

    We conducted several informal tests varying the spatial mask used to Voronoi bin the BCG, and increasing the spectral SNR target: in all cases, the kinematics maps produced were qualitatively consistent with the fiducial map used in this work.

    “We conducted several informal tests varying the spatial mask used to Voronoi bin the BCG, and increasing the spectral SNR target: in all cases, the kinematics maps produced were qualitatively consistent with the fiducial map used in this work.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
93 of 93
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The PSF is a single-component Gaussian.

    “We thus assume a single-component Gaussian PSF, and adopt a prior on its size σ PSF ∼ U (0 . 35' , 0 . 5'), spanning FWHM values of approximately 0.5' to 1.2'.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The first velocity moment is negligible.

    “As in Shajib et al. [62], we take the first velocity moment to be negligible, leaving ⟨ σ 2 los ⟩ = ⟨ v 2 los ⟩ . (See also Figure 6.)”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Strong lensing has a strong selection function for halos that are massive, elongated along the line-of-sight, or highly concentrated.

    “Strong lensing has a strong selection function for halos that are massive, elongated along the line-of-sight, or, indeed, highly concentrated, so this result is not surprising.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Measurements of stellar velocity dispersions can be highly sensitive to the wavelength range used, the choice of template library, and the degree of the polynomial used to model background.

    “Measurements of stellar velocity dispersions can be highly sensitive to the wavelength range used, the choice of template library, and even the degree of the polynomial used to model background.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Considerable uncertainty exists on the value of the velocity anisotropy β.

    “Considerable uncertainty, however, exists on the value of the velocity anisotropy β ; in this work, we adopt a flat prior on β sph ∼ U ( -0 . 4 , 0 . 4), slightly wider than the allowed values in [62, 65].”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The luminous red galaxy approximately 2.5 arcminutes to the south is associated with the MACSJ0138 cluster and may host a significant dark matter halo of its own.

    “In the MACSJ0138 field, there is a luminous red galaxy ∼ 2 . 5 ′ to the south, which is likely associated with the MACSJ0138 cluster and may host a significant DM halo of its own.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The expected pairwise particle velocity is ⟨v pair⟩ = 4σ0/√π.

    “We make the same assumption as in [50] and [17] that the expected pairwise particle velocity is ⟨ v pair ⟩ = 4 σ 0 √ π .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Each SIDM constraint is velocity-independent locally.

    “While there is some velocity offset, each constraint is assumed to be velocityindependent locally, but all constraints are consistent with the typical 1 /v 4 global velocity-dependent behavior of SIDM theory curves in this large velocity limit [1].”
8 of 8

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • PSF prior has conflicting lower bounds

    Minor

    The methods specify a positive lower bound of 0.35 arcseconds for the PSF size, whereas Table II prints a negative lower bound for the same prior.

  • Lensing and kinematics data counts are reversed

    Minor

    The paper assigns 25 data degrees of freedom to lensing and 38 to kinematics, respectively. Elsewhere it says the kinematics measurement has 25 Voronoi bins; the 38 therefore cannot be its stated data-vector count.

  • BCG extraction ellipse exceeds the stated MUSE field of view

    Minor

    An ellipse with axes of 8.5′ and 5′ cannot be selected from a MUSE observation whose stated field of view is approximately 1′ by 1′. The ellipse dimensions appear to have been given in the wrong angular units.

3 of 3

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

7 of the 95 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
O’Donnell, J. H., Jeltema, T. E., Roberts, M. G., Nightingale, J., Flowers, A., & Aldas, D.
Affiliations
  • University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
  • Newcastle University (GB)
  • University of Zurich (CH)
  • University of California, Berkeley (US)
Venue
Physical Review D
Published
2026-03-16
Volume
113
Issue
6
ISSN
  • 2470-0010 (ISSN-L)
  • 2470-0029
OpenAlex
W4414431458
Cited by
5
References
95
Citations by year
2026: 5
FWCI
14.09
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Physical review. D/Physical review. D. (publishedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (cc-by)
Funders
National Science Foundation (AST 1828315)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Nuclear and High Energy Physics › Dark Matter and Cosmic Phenomena
  • Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Galaxies: Formation, Evolution, Phenomena
  • Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Keywords
self-interacting dark matter, dark matter cross section, strong gravitational lensing, stellar kinematics, cluster density profiles, time-delay cosmography, Hubble constant, dark matter physics

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-11-01.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-11-01.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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