Chronology for the Aegean Late Bronze Age 1700-1400 B.C.

All the scientific dating evidence could indicate a likely date for the Santorini/Thera eruption in the later 17th century BCE potentially compatible with the 1628-1626 BCE range.

“Since we may now remove the Porsuk tree-ring growth anomaly from this discussion (see above), all the scientific dating evidence could therefore indicate a likely date for the Santorini/Thera eruption in the later 17th century BCE potentially compatible with the 1628–1626 BCE range (e.g. [66, 68, 69, 78–81, 89–92]).”

Details on the Miletos and Noceto tree-ring samples and 14C dates are published.

“Details on the Miletos and Noceto tree-ring samples and 14C dates are published10,51.”

The modelled dating probability for the Thera eruption, using the median OxCal Amodel result from 11 model runs, has a total dating window at 95.4% hpd of 1,619-1,543 BCE and most likely 68.3% hpd regions overall of ~1,617 to 1,601 BCE (average 62.8% hpd) and ~1,570 to 1,562 BCE (average 5.4% hpd).

“The modelled dating probability for the Thera eruption, using the median OxCal Amodel result from 11 model runs (Supplementary Fig. S13) is shown in Fig. 6a. Across the 11 runs the total dating window at 95.4% hpd is 1,619–1,543 BCE and the most likely 68.3% hpd regions overall are ~ 1,617 to 1,601 BCE (average 62.8% hpd) and ~ 1,570 to 1,562 BCE (average 5.4% hpd) (Supplementary Fig. S13).”

Models excluding all 14C data from Thera offer similar but slightly less constrained results.

“Since it has been suggested in the past that 14C dates on samples from Thera could have been affected by volcanic CO2 (despite no positive evidence as regards any archaeological sample)33,51,53,55, we also consider models excluding all 14C data from Thera (Supplementary Fig. S15). These offer similar but slightly less constrained results.”

The 13 uncalibrated radiocarbon dates from Akrotiri charred seeds range from 3400 ± 31 BP (OxA-11820) to 3315 ± 31 BP (VERA-2757).

“The 13 individual dates have a range from 3400 ± 31 BP (OxA-11820) to 3315 ± 31 BP (VERA-2757).”

No consensus has yet been reached between archaeological evidence linked to the Egyptian chronology and 14C dating for the date of the Thera eruption.

“Despite numerous efforts to pin down this date through archaeological evidence linked to the Egyptian chronology and by 14 C dating, no consensus between both methods has yet been reached (Baiter 2006;Friedrich et al. 2006Friedrich et al. ,2009;;Manning et al. 2006Manning et al. , 2009a;;Bietak and Höflmayer 2007;Wiener 2009;Bruins 2010;Bietak 2012).”

Both the olive tree and samples from the volcanic destruction layer in Akrotiri grew far away from known volcanic vents; therefore, a dead carbon contribution is unlikely for these samples.

“Both the olive tree (Friedrich et al. 2006) and samples from the volcanic destruction layer in Akrotiri (Manning et al. 2006) grew far away from known volcanic vents; therefore, a dead carbon contribution is unlikely for these samples.”

Many samples in the investigation of Manning et al. (2006) came from surrounding islands with no volcanic activity.

“In addition, many samples in the investigation of Manning et al. (2006) came from surrounding islands with no volcanic activity.”

All three 14C results point to a Santorini eruption date in the second half of the 17th century BC.

“All 3 14 C results point to a Santorini eruption date in the second half of the 17th century BC.”

The uncalibrated dates for the Therasia shrub's outer-most bark and shoot samples are consistent with determinations from short-lived materials from the volcanic destruction layer at Akrotiri, Theran tsunami deposits at Çeşme-Bağlararası and Palaikastro, and contemporary mainland contexts marked by the sudden arrival of Theran pumice.

“they are also consistent with determinations from short lived materials from the volcanic destruction layer at Akrotiri11 and from Theran tsunami deposits at Çeşme-Bağlararası, Türkiye40 (e.g., 3297 ± 19 14C years BP) and Palaikastro on Crete39, as well as with samples found in contemporary mainland contexts marked by the sudden arrival of Theran pumice37,38.”

Calibrated age distributions based on radiocarbon determinations of materials buried by eruption deposits place the Thera eruption around 1600 BCE.

“persistent differences between the calibrated age distributions based on radiocarbon (14C) determinations of materials buried by eruption deposits9–13, placing the eruption around 1600 BCE”

Radiocarbon measurements from legumes and grains buried directly beneath the eruption deposits, and an olive branch buried within them, cluster in the range c.1650-1600 cal BCE relative to IntCal13.

“Measurements of radiocarbon ( 14 C) from legumes and grains ( 3 , 8 , 9 ) buried directly beneath the eruption deposits, and an olive branch ( 10 ) buried within them, cluster in the range c.1650 -1600 cal BCE relative to the internationally agreed radiocarbon calibration curve, IntCal13 ( 11 )”

The Thera VDL 14C ages are broadly similar to 14C dates from other approximately contemporary Aegean contexts.

“The Thera VDL dataset instead comprises 14 C ages broadly similar with the 14 C dates achieved on similar material from other approximately contemporary Aegean contexts [4,5,7,9,67,70,74].”

The first series comprises 14C dates on a defined tree-ring (oak, Quercus sp.) sequence of 72 tree-rings ending in waney edge from Miletos from a sample found buried beneath Theran tephra fall.

“The first series comprises 14 C dates on a defined tree-ring (oak, Quercus sp.) sequence of 72 tree-rings ending in waney edge (ring immediately below bark) from Miletos from a sample that was found buried beneath Theran tephra fall [74,140,144].”

OxA AMS 14C data, or the demonstrated very comparable Vienna (VERA) AMS 14C data, comprise 79% and 75% of the two datasets for the Thera volcanic destruction level.

“These comparisons especially including OxA AMS 14C data are particularly relevant to the Thera case since OxA AMS 14C data, or the demonstrated very comparable Vienna (VERA) AMS 14C data (23, 46, 55), comprise 79% and 75% of the two datasets (55, 56) for the Thera volcanic destruction level.”

When the published Santorini eruption dating analyses are rerun with the Hd GOR calibration dataset, the results support a later 17th century BCE date range for the Thera eruption, with entire most likely 68.2% hpd ranges of 1649 to 1617 BCE and 1680 to 1613 BCE.

“If we rerun these analyses with the Hd GOR calibration dataset (as in Fig. 2A) with its revision of the earlier mid–16th century BCE 14C values to reflect Mediterranean conditions and regional offset, we find that the results support a later 17th century BCE date range for the Thera eruption, including the entire most likely 68.2% highest posterior density (hpd) ranges (Fig. 5, A and B; 1649 to 16”

Employing the lowest 'low' 14C age estimate (3326 ± 11 BP) for the Thera volcanic destruction level in a sequence analysis of Aegean 14C data from before, contemporary with, and after the Santorini eruption horizon concentrates the modeled probability for the Thera volcanic destruction level in the last few decades of the 17th century BC.

“then the effect of employing the”

A late 17th century BC date range is consonant with-and more so than a mid-17th century BC date-the relevant Aegean 14C evidence available excluding the 14C data from Santorini.

“Such a late 17th century BC date range is also consonant with-and more so than a mid-17th century BC date-the relevant Aegean 14 C evidence available excluding the 14 C data from Santorini”

If only the most modern available data are considered, specifically the 13 AD2000s data in the Manning et al. (2006) study, the 'low clump' weighted average becomes 3326 ± 11 BP.

“If one further argues only to consider the most modern available data and so only considers the 13 AD2000s data in the Manning et al. (2006) study, then this”

Use of the lower 14C age estimates from the subjectively defined 'low date clumps' does not materially change previous assessments of the 14C-based dating of the Thera volcanic destruction level that favored mid-to-later 17th century BC ranges.

“thus, use of the lower 1 4 C age estimates from the subjectively defined”

The 28-date set (set 2) of 14C measurements on short-lived sample matter from the Akrotiri volcanic destruction level passes a chi-squared test following Ward and Wilson (1978), with test statistic (7) = 31.5 < 39.9 at the 5% level for df 27.

“The 28-date set (set 2) of 1 4 C measurements on short-lived sample matter from the Akrotiri volcanic destruction level (VDL) employed in the Manning et al. (2006) study passes a chi-squared (χ2) test following the Ward and Wilson (1978) approach with a test statistic (7) = 31.5< 39.9 at 5% level for df27.”

The 14C ages on a section of olive wood found buried by the eruption (Friedrich et al. 2006) are consistent with the dating offered by the short-lived samples from Akrotiri.

“Since the 14 C ages on a section of olive wood found buried by the eruption (Friedrich et al. 2006) are also consistent with the dating offered by the short-lived samples from Akrotiri”

Short-lived samples from the volcanic destruction layer of Akrotiri provide consistent results for a point in time shortly before the Minoan eruption (late LM IA) in the second half of the 17th century BCE.

“Short-lived samples from the volcanic destruction layer (VDL) of Akrotiri were run in a number of different laboratories, such as Oxford, Copenhagen, Heidelberg, and Vienna, providing consistent results for a point in time shortly before the Minoan eruption (late LM IA) in the second half of the 17th century BCE”

Assuming all short-lived material (28 measurements) reflect the same point in time, the RCombine function of OxCal yields a date between 1664 and 1651 cal BC (20.1% probability) or between 1642 and 1616 cal BC (48.1% probability).

“Assuming that all short-lived material (28 measurements published in Manning et al. 2006) reflect the same point in time (give or take a few years), maybe the last harvest stored in the settlement, the RCombine function of OxCal can be used to combine the short-lived samples prior to calibration, resulting in a date between 1664 and 1651 cal BC (20.1% probability) or between 1642 and 1616 cal BC (”