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Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
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Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
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Self-citationA Conceptual Framework to Integrate Biodiversity, Ecosystem Function, and Ecosystem Service Models
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Self-citationMapping ecosystem functions and services in Eastern Europe using global-scale data sets
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Self-citationAlternative pathways to a sustainable future lead to contrasting biodiversity responses
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Self-citationComparing Extinction Rates: Past, Present, and Future ☆
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Pereira, H. M., Martins, I. S., Rosa, I. M. D., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C. A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T. D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J. P., Hill, S. L. L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A. J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J. H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J. A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J. R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A. M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B. B. N., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M. V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., & Alkemade, R.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2024-04-26
- Volume
- 384
- Issue
- 6694
- Pages
- 458-465
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W4395447577
- Cited by
- 308
- References
- 95
- FWCI
- 54.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
