Cited by 316Diabetes and associated disordersDiabetes Management and ResearchDiabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins

Incidence of type 1 diabetes in China, 2010-13: population based study

Open access
Weng, Jianping, Zhou, Zhiguang, Guo, Lixin, Zhu, Dalong, Ji, Linong, Luo, Xiaoping, Mu, Yiming, Jia, Weiping·2018·BMJ

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of type 1 diabetes in all age groups in China during 2010-13. DESIGN: Population based, registry study using data from multiple independent sources. SETTING: National registration system in all 505 hospitals providing diabetes care, and communities of patients with diabetes in 13 areas across China, covering more than 133 million person years at risk, approximately 10% of the whole population. PARTICIPANTS: 5018 people of all ages with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes and resident in the study areas from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2013. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of type 1 diabetes per 100 000 person years by age, sex, and study area. Type 1 diabetes was doctor diagnosed and further validated by onsite follow-up. Completeness of case ascertainment was assessed using the capture mark recapture method. RESULTS: 5018 cases of newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes were ascertained: 1239 participants were aged <15 years, 1799 were aged 15-29 years, and 1980 were aged ≥30 years. The proportion of new onset cases in participants aged ≥20 years was 65.3%. The estimated incidence of type 1 diabetes per 100 000 persons years for all ages in China was 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.18 to 1.84). Incidence per 100 000 persons years by age group was 1.93 (0.83 to 3.03) for 0-14 years, 1.28 (0.45 to 2.11) for 15-29 years, and 0.69 (0.00 to 1.51) for ≥30 years, with a peak in age group 10-14 years. The incidence in under 15s was positively correlated with latitude (r=0.88, P<0.001), although this association was not observed in age groups 15-29 years or ≥30 years. CONCLUSION: Most cases of new onset type 1 diabetes in China occurred among adults. The incidence of type 1 diabetes in Chinese children was among the lowest reported in the study.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1136/bmj.j5295

Cites

5 of 5 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • In China, type 1 diabetes mellitus incidence was 1.49 per 100,000 person-years among those aged ≥75 years, more than four times higher than the 0.37 per 100,000 person-years reported in a separate Chinese study.

    “In China, using a population-based registry, the incidence of T1DM was reported as 1.49 (95% CI 0.97–2.29) per 100,000 person-years among those aged ≥75 years22. This figure is more than four times higher than the incidence of 0.37 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 0.27–0.51) reported for those aged ≥75 years in a separate Chinese study23.”

    From The epidemiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus in older adults (2025) · cites this paper as [23]

    In Results, Table 2 (page unavailable), the cited paper reports 0.37 (95% CI 0.27–0.51) per 100,000 person-years for people aged ≥75, not the 1.49 (0.97–2.29) attributed to it. The citing sentence assigns the paper’s 0.37 figure to a separate study instead. (LLM, conf=0.95)

    Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 31

  1. [2]Patterson CC Dahlquist GG Gyürüs E Green A Soltész G EURODIAB Study Group Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study. Lancet 2009; 373: 2027- 33. 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60568-7 19481249 · DOI · Paper page
  2. [3]Yang Z Wang K Li T Childhood diabetes in China. Enormous variation by place and ethnic group. Diabetes Care 1998; 21: 525- 9. 10.2337/diacare.21.4.525 9571336 · DOI
  3. [4]DIAMOND Project Group Incidence and trends of childhood Type 1 diabetes worldwide 1990-1999. Diabet Med 2006; 23: 857- 66. 16911623
  4. [5]Mayer-Davis EJ Lawrence JM Dabelea D SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study Incidence Trends of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes among Youths, 2002-2012. N Engl J Med 2017; 376: 1419- 29. 10.1056/NEJMoa1610187 28402773 PMC5592722 · DOI · Paper page
  5. [6]Vehik K Hamman RF Lezotte D Trends in high-risk HLA susceptibility genes among Colorado youth with type 1 diabetes. Diabetes Care 2008; 31: 1392- 6. 10.2337/dc07-2210 18356404 PMC2453682 · DOI · Paper page
  6. [7]Expert Committee on The Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes Mellitus Report of the Expert Committee on the Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes Mellitus. Diabetes Care 1997; 20: 1183- 97. 10.2337/diacare.20.7.1183 9203460 · DOI · Paper page
  7. [9]Yang D Deng H Luo G Demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus: A multicenter registry study in Guangdong, China. J Diabetes 2016; 8: 847- 53. 10.1111/1753-0407.12366 26663759 · DOI
  8. [10]Chiang JL Kirkman MS Laffel LM Peters AL Type 1 Diabetes Sourcebook Authors Type 1 diabetes through the life span: a position statement of the American Diabetes Association. Diabetes Care 2014; 37: 2034- 54. 10.2337/dc14-1140 24935775 PMC5865481 · DOI
  9. [13]Alberti KG Zimmet PZ Definition, diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus and its complications. Part 1: diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus provisional report of a WHO consultation. Diabet Med 1998; 15: 539- 53. 9686693
  10. [14]Wolfsdorf JI Allgrove J Craig ME International Society for Pediatric and Adolescent Diabetes ISPAD Clinical Practice Consensus Guidelines 2014. Diabetic ketoacidosis and hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state. Pediatr Diabetes 2014; 15(Suppl 20): 154- 79. 10.1111/pedi.12165 25041509 · DOI
  11. [15]Joint British Diabetes Societies Inpatient Care Group. The management of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in adults - revised - second edition, 2013. www.diabetes.org.uk/professionals/position-statements-reports/specialist-care-for-children-and-adults-and-complications/the-management-of-diabetic-ketoacidosis-in-adults.
  12. [16]Zhong VW Pfaff ER Beavers DP Search for Diabetes in Youth Study Group Use of administrative and electronic health record data for development of automated algorithms for childhood diabetes case ascertainment and type classification: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study. Pediatr Diabetes 2014; 15: 573- 84. 10.1111/pedi.12152 24913103 PMC4229415 · DOI
  13. [17]International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation I: History and theoretical development. Am J Epidemiol 1995; 142: 1047- 58. 7485050
  14. [18]Agresti A Coull BA Approximate is better than “exact” for interval estimation of binomial proportions. Am Stat 1998; 52: 119- 26.
  15. [19]Staples JA Ponsonby AL Lim LL McMichael AJ Ecologic analysis of some immune-related disorders, including type 1 diabetes, in Australia: latitude, regional ultraviolet radiation, and disease prevalence. Environ Health Perspect 2003; 111: 518- 23. 10.1289/ehp.5941 12676609 PMC1241438 · DOI
  16. [20]Akerblom HK Vaarala O Hyöty H Ilonen J Knip M Environmental factors in the etiology of type 1 diabetes. Am J Med Genet 2002; 115: 18- 29. 10.1002/ajmg.10340 12116173 · DOI
  17. [21]Craig ME Nair S Stein H Rawlinson WD Viruses and type 1 diabetes: a new look at an old story. Pediatr Diabetes 2013; 14: 149- 58. 23517503
  18. [22]Beyerlein A Krasmann M Thiering E Ambient air pollution and early manifestation of type 1 diabetes. Epidemiology 2015; 26: e31- 2. 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000254 25668686 · DOI
  19. [24]Park Y Wintergerst KA Zhou Z Clinical heterogeneity of type 1 diabetes (T1D) found in Asia. Diabetes Metab Res Rev 2017; 33. 10.1002/dmrr.2907 28544229 · DOI
  20. [25]Harjutsalo V Sund R Knip M Groop PH Incidence of type 1 diabetes in Finland. JAMA 2013; 310: 427- 8. 10.1001/jama.2013.8399 23917294 · DOI
  21. [26]Patterson CC Gyürüs E Rosenbauer J Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989-2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase. Diabetologia 2012; 55: 2142- 7. 10.1007/s00125-012-2571-8 22638547 · DOI · Paper page
  22. [28]Pishdad GR Low incidence of type 1 diabetes in Iran. Diabetes Care 2005; 28: 927- 8. 10.2337/diacare.28.4.927 15793198 · DOI
  23. [29]Thunander M Petersson C Jonzon K Incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in adults and children in Kronoberg, Sweden. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2008; 82: 247- 55. 10.1016/j.diabres.2008.07.022 18804305 · DOI · Paper page
  24. [30]Onda Y Sugihara S Ogata T Yokoya S Yokoyama T Tajima N Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) Study Group Incidence and prevalence of childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes in Japan: the T1D study. Diabet Med 2017; 34: 909- 15. 27925270
  25. [31]Krolewski AS Warram JH Rand LI Kahn CR Epidemiologic approach to the etiology of type I diabetes mellitus and its complications. N Engl J Med 1987; 317: 1390- 8. 10.1056/NEJM198711263172206 3317040 · DOI
  26. [32]Karjalainen J Salmela P Ilonen J Surcel HM Knip M A comparison of childhood and adult type I diabetes mellitus. N Engl J Med 1989; 320: 881- 6. 10.1056/NEJM198904063201401 2648146 · DOI
  27. [33]Blohmé G Nyström L Arnqvist HJ Male predominance of type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus in young adults: results from a 5-year prospective nationwide study of the 15-34-year age group in Sweden. Diabetologia 1992; 35: 56- 62. 10.1007/BF00400852 1541382 · DOI
  28. [35]Kyvik KO Nystrom L Gorus F The epidemiology of Type 1 diabetes mellitus is not the same in young adults as in children. Diabetologia 2004; 47: 377- 84. 10.1007/s00125-004-1331-9 14762657 · DOI · Paper page
  29. [36]Patterson CC Dahlquist G Soltész G Green A EURODIAB ACE Study Group. Europe and Diabetes Is childhood-onset type I diabetes a wealth-related disease? An ecological analysis of European incidence rates. Diabetologia 2001; 44(Suppl 3): B9- 16. 10.1007/PL00002961 11724424 · DOI
  30. [38]Chen J Zheng H Bei JX Genetic structure of the Han Chinese population revealed by genome-wide SNP variation. Am J Hum Genet 2009; 85: 775- 85. 10.1016/j.ajhg.2009.10.016 19944401 PMC2790583 · DOI · Paper page
  31. [39]Dabelea D Rewers A Stafford JM SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study Group Trends in the prevalence of ketoacidosis at diabetes diagnosis: the SEARCH for diabetes in youth study. Pediatrics 2014; 133: e938- 45. 24685959 PMC4074618

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Weng, J., Zhou, Z., Guo, L., Zhu, D., Ji, L., Luo, X., Mu, Y., & Jia, W.
Affiliations
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (CN)
Corresponding author
Weng, Jianping
Venue
BMJ
Publisher
BMJ
Published
2018-01-03
Volume
360
Pages
j5295
ISSN
  • 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
  • 0959-8138
OpenAlex
W2782494600
Cited by
316
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 28 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 37 · 2023: 26 · 2022: 53 · 2021: 53 · 2020: 43 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 16
FWCI
20.96
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • BMJ (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (81530025, 2017YFC1309603)
  • Chinese Medical Association
  • China International Medical Foundation
  • Key Programme
Topics
  • Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
Keywords
type 1 diabetes, incidence, China, age distribution, children, adults, latitude, case ascertainment, newly diagnosed diabetes, hospital registration, mark-recapture, sex differences, population-based registry, diabetes epidemiology, adult-onset type 1 diabetes, diabetes complications, diabetes mortality, diabetes risk factors
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, China, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Registries, Incidence, Age Distribution, Young Adult

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review