Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study
Open accessAbstract
Background The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in European centres, and thereby predict the future burden of childhood diabetes in Europe.Methods 20 population-based EURODIAB registers in 17 countries registered 29 311 new cases of type 1 diabetes, diagnosed in children before their 15th birthday during a 15-year period, 1989-2003. Age-specific log linear rates of increase were estimated in five geographical regions, and used in conjunction with published incidence rates and population projections to predict numbers of new cases throughout Europe in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020.Findings Ascertainment was better than 90% in most registers. All but two registers showed significant yearly increases in incidence, ranging from 0.6% to 9.3%. The overall annual increase was 3.9% (95% CI 3.6-4.2), and the increases in the age groups 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years were 5.4% (4.8-6.1), 4.3% (3.8-4.8), and 2.9% (2.5-3.3), respectively. The number of new cases in Europe in 2005 is estimated as 15 000, divided between the 0-4 year, 5-9 year, and 10-14 year age-groups in the ratio 24%, 35%, and 41%, respectively. In 2020, the predicted number of new cases is 24 400, with a doubling in numbers in children younger than 5 years and a more even distribution across age-groups than at present (29%, 37%, and 34%, respectively). Prevalence under age 15 years is predicted to rise from 94 000 in 2005, to 160 000 in 2020.Interpretation If present trends continue, doubling of new cases of type 1 diabetes in European children younger than 5 years is predicted between 2005 and 2020, and prevalent cases younger than 15 years will rise by 70%. Adequate health-care resources to meet these children's needs should be made available.Funding European Community Concerted Action Program.
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In Finland, Germany, and Norway, annual increases in incidence of type 1 diabetes of 2·4%, 2·6%, and 3·3%, respectively, have been reported.
“In Finland, Germany, and Norway, annual increases in incidence of 2·4%, 2·6%, and 3·3%, respectively, have been reported.16,19,20”
From Type 1 diabetes (2014) · cites this paper as [16]
The Results table reports a 2·7% annual increase for the two Finnish regions studied, not the claimed 2·4%. It also reports 3·7% and 4·7% for the two German centres and 1·3% for the Norwegian counties, rather than the other figures in the sentence. These are centre-level estimates, not whole-country estimates. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredType 1 diabetes is most common in Finland (>60 cases per 100 000 people each year) and Sardinia (around 40 cases per 100 000 people each year).
“Type 1 diabetes is most common in Finland (>60 cases per 100 000 people each year) and Sardinia (around 40 cases per 100 000 people each year).16”
From Type 1 diabetes (2014) · cites this paper as [16]
The Results table (page not available in our copy) shows high childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in two Finnish regions, but its highest reported rate is 52.6 per 100,000, not over 60. The paper does not report a rate for Sardinia, and its rates concern children aged 0–14 rather than people of all ages. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIf incidence rates continue to increase on their existing path, global incidence of type 1 diabetes could double over the next decade.
“If incidence rates continue to increase on their existing path, global incidence could double over the next decade.16”
From Type 1 diabetes (2014) · cites this paper as [16]
The Abstract predicts that, if trends continue, new type 1 diabetes cases among European children younger than 5 will double between 2005 and 2020. It does not predict a doubling of global incidence over the next decade: the population is European children under 5, the measure is numbers of new cases, and the interval is 15 years. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredOnly about 15% of individuals with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes have a first-degree relative with the disease.
“Only about 15% of individuals with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes have a first-degree relative with the disease (420).”
From Guidelines and Recommendations for Laboratory Analysis in the Diagnosis and Management of Diabetes Mellitus (2023) · cites this paper as [420]
The Abstract reports incidence trends and predicted numbers of new childhood type 1 diabetes cases in Europe, not family history. Searches for “first-degree,” “family history,” and “15%” found no passage in our copy stating what proportion of newly diagnosed people have an affected first-degree relative. (LLM, conf=0.77)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe worldwide increase in type 1 diabetes incidence is especially marked in young children.
“The increasing incidence of T1D throughout the world is especially marked in young children10,23.”
From Epidemiology of type 1 diabetes (2010) · cites this paper as [23]
Only about 15% of newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes patients have a first-degree relative with the disease.
“Only about 15% of patients with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes have a first-degree relative with the disease (294).”
From Guidelines and recommendations for laboratory analysis in the diagnosis and management of diabetes mellitus (2011) · cites this paper as [294]
Type 1 diabetes results from selective destruction of beta cells by immune cells infiltrating the islets of Langerhans.
“a consensus model has emerged in which type 1 diabetes is envisaged to result from the selective destruction of beta cells by immune cells infiltrating the islets of Langerhans [1–3, 8, 9].”
From Islet cell hyperexpression of HLA class I antigens: a defining feature in type 1 diabetes (2016) · cites this paper as [3]
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- Authors
- Patterson, C. C., Dahlquist, G. G., Gyürüs, E., Green, A., & Soltész, G.
- Affiliations
- Queen's University Belfast (GB)
- Umeå University (SE)
- University of Southern Denmark (DK)
- University of Pecs (HU)
- Corresponding author
- Patterson, Christopher C
- ORCID
- Green, Anders
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2009-06
- Volume
- 373
- Issue
- 9680
- Pages
- 2027-2033
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- OpenAlex
- W2000549941
- Semantic Scholar
- 15db35131c6ffeb3080d18118ae7f9b6e3d2185a
- Cited by
- 1,854
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 51 · 2022: 62 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 107 · 2019: 99 · 2018: 131 · 2017: 128 · 2016: 135 · 2015: 165 · 2014: 175 · 2013: 191 · 2012: 151
- FWCI
- 84.34
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- orbilu.uni.lu
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (publishedVersion)
- University of Southern Denmark Research Portal (University of Southern Denmark) (publishedVersion)
- Open Repository and Bibliography (University of Luxembourg) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (submittedVersion)
- Research Portal (Queen's University Belfast) (submittedVersion)
- VUBIR (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute for Health and Care Research
- Diabetes UK
- University of Leeds
- Queen's University Belfast
- University of Bristol
- Vetenskapsrådet (07531)
- Umeå Universitet
- Silesian University of Technology
- Universität Ulm
- Terveyden ja hyvinvoinnin laitos
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/G007438/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Diabetes and associated disorders
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Keywords
- type 1 diabetes in children, incidence trends, incidence forecasting, disease burden, prevalence, age-specific incidence, European children, children under five, population projections, diabetes registry, ascertainment, health care costs, health care utilization
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Child, Child Welfare, Child, Preschool, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1, Europe, Female, Forecasting, Health Planning, Health Services Needs and Demand, Humans, Infant, Male, Population Surveillance, Prospective Studies, Registries, Risk Factors, Incidence, Prevalence, Likelihood Functions, Linear Models, Cost of Illness, Age Distribution, Sex Distribution
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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