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Projecting Cancer Incidence and Deaths to 2030: The Unexpected Burden of Thyroid, Liver, and Pancreas Cancers in the United States
Abstract
Cancer incidence and deaths in the United States were projected for the most common cancer types for the years 2020 and 2030 based on changing demographics and the average annual percentage changes in incidence and death rates. Breast, prostate, and lung cancers will remain the top cancer diagnoses throughout this time, but thyroid cancer will replace colorectal cancer as the fourth leading cancer diagnosis by 2030, and melanoma and uterine cancer will become the fifth and sixth most common cancers, respectively. Lung cancer is projected to remain the top cancer killer throughout this time period. However, pancreas and liver cancers are projected to surpass breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers to become the second and third leading causes of cancer-related death by 2030, respectively. Advances in screening, prevention, and treatment can change cancer incidence and/or death rates, but it will require a concerted effort by the research and healthcare communities now to effect a substantial change for the future.
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“Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is on track to become the number 2 cancer killer in the United States within the next decade, unless there is a major improvement in outcomes.10”
From Artificial Intelligence and Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer: 2020 Summative Review (2021) · cites this paper as [10]
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“PDAC is estimated to become the second-highest mortality cancer in several Western countries within the next decade, emphasizing the necessity for novel therapeutic approaches (Rahib et al., 2014).”
Metadata
- Authors
- Rahib, L., Smith, B. D., Aizenberg, R., Rosenzweig, A. B., Fleshman, J. M., & Matrisian, L. M.
- Affiliations
- The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (US)
- Venue
- Cancer Research
- Published
- 2014-05-29
- Volume
- 74
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 2913-2921
- ISSN
- 0008-5472 (ISSN-L)
- 1538-7445
- OpenAlex
- W1968812902
- Cited by
- 7,094
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 307 · 2025: 502 · 2024: 616 · 2023: 774 · 2022: 820 · 2021: 914 · 2020: 883 · 2019: 715 · 2018: 565 · 2017: 421 · 2016: 341 · 2015: 187 · 2014: 39
- FWCI
- 158.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Cancer Research (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- cancer incidence projections, cancer mortality projections, thyroid cancer, liver cancer, pancreatic cancer, lung cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, melanoma, uterine cancer, cancer burden, United States
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Male, Mortality, Pancreatic Neoplasms, Thyroid Neoplasms, United States, Models, Statistical, Incidence
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