It Could Have Been True: How Counterfactual Thoughts Reduce Condemnation of Falsehoods and Increase Political Polarization
Abstract
This research demonstrates how counterfactual thoughts can lead people to excuse others for telling falsehoods. When a falsehood aligned with participants’ political preferences, reflecting on how it could have been true led them to judge it as less unethical to tell, which in turn led them to judge a politician who told it as having a more moral character and deserving less punishment. When a falsehood did not align with political preferences, this effect was significantly smaller and less reliable, in part because people doubted the plausibility of the relevant counterfactual thoughts. These results emerged independently in three studies (two preregistered; total N = 2,783) and in meta- and Bayesian analyses, regardless of whether participants considered the same counterfactuals or generated their own. The results reveal how counterfactual thoughts can amplify partisan differences in judgments of alleged dishonesty. I discuss implications for theories of counterfactual thinking and motivated moral reasoning.
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Donald Trump supporters felt that it was less unethical to spread the falsehood that more people attended Trump's presidential inauguration than Barack Obama's after pondering a counterfactual possibility, compared to a condition in which the counterfactual was not raised.
“For example, Donald Trump supporters felt that it was less unethical to spread the falsehood that more people attended Trump’s presidential inauguration than Barack Obama’s presidential inauguration after pondering the counterfactual possibility that “If security had been less tight at Trump’s inauguration, then more people would have attended it than Obama’s inauguration,” compared to an”
From Cognitive–motivational mechanisms of political polarization in social-communicative contexts (2022) · cites this paper as [128]
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredPeople may engage in counterfactual thinking about 'what might have been' in a creative but self-serving (or group-serving) manner in order to maintain their own pre-existing attitudes.
“Other studies suggest that people might engage in counterfactual thinking about ‘what might have been’ in a creative but self-serving (or group-serving) manner in order to maintain their own pre-existing attitudes.”
From Cognitive–motivational mechanisms of political polarization in social-communicative contexts (2022) · cites this paper as [128]
People may rationalize the spread of misinformation through the biased use of information about 'what might have been'.
“Thus, people may rationalize the spread of misinformation through the biased use of information about ‘what might have been’.”
From Cognitive–motivational mechanisms of political polarization in social-communicative contexts (2022) · cites this paper as [128]
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Park, R., & Baek, Y. M. (2021) · Journal of Social and Political Psychology · doi:10.5964/jspp.6153 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Statistical Controversies in Psychological Science
Hales, A. H., & Wood, N. R. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-04968-2_9 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Onifade, A. B. (2022) · Education for Information · doi:10.3233/efi-211568 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
To Create Such a Crisis, to Foster Such a Tension
Spector, B. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108551663.009
An Objective Description and a Subjective Uh-Oh!
Spector, B. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108551663.006
Believing Claims of Urgency – Or Not
Spector, B. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108551663.007
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Spector, B. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108551663.005
(2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108551663.012
Spector, B. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108551663.011
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Spector, B. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108551663.001
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Spector, B. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108551663.002
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Spector, B. (2019) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108551663.004
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Ethical disagreements in technology and management research
Telkamp, J. B. (2023) · doi:10.31274/td-20240329-291
Mackin, M., Effron, D. A., Epstude, K., & Roese, N. J. (2025) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2025.104868
Self-citationMiller, C. B. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197840801.001.0001
Fake News and the Honesty Crisis in Politics
Miller, C. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197840801.003.0006
Online Infidelity and the Honesty Crisis in Relationships
Miller, C. B. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197840801.003.0004
Pastors and the Honesty Crisis in Religion
Miller, C. B. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197840801.003.0008
Miller, C. B. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197840801.003.0002
Honesty Is a Lot More Interesting Than You Might Think
Miller, C. B. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197840801.003.0001
The Honesty Crisis Surrounding Deepfakes
Miller, C. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197840801.003.0003
Miller, C. B. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197840801.002.0005
Fame, Lying, and the Honesty Crisis for Celebrities
Miller, C. B. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197840801.003.0007
Can Confidence Help Account for and Redress the Effects of Reading Inaccurate Information?Preprint
Hinze, S. R., Donovan, A. M., Salovich, N. A., & Rapp, D. N. (2020) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints)
Telkamp, J. B., & Anderson, M. H. (2026) · Applied Psychology · doi:10.1111/apps.70120
- Authors
- Effron, D. A.
- Affiliations
- London Business School (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Effron, Daniel A.
- ORCID
- Effron, Daniel A.
- Venue
- Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2018-01-23
- Volume
- 44
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 729-745
- ISSN
- 0146-1672 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-7433
- OpenAlex
- W2785189484
- Cited by
- 79
- References
- 63
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 17 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 4.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- London Business School Research Online (London Business School) (acceptedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
- Keywords
- counterfactual reasoning, political polarization, moral judgment, political preferences, punishment judgments, partisanship
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Imagination, Judgment, Morals, Politics
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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