Counterfactual thinking.
Abstract
Counterfactuals are mental representations of alternatives to the past and produce consequences that are both beneficial and aversive to the individual. These apparently contradictory effects are integrated in a functionalist model of counterfactual thinking. The author reviews research in support of the assertions that (a) counterfactual thinking is activated automatically in response to negative affect, (b) the content of counterfactuals targets particularly likely causes of misfortune, (c) counterfactuals produce negative affective consequences through a contrast-effect mechanism and positive inferential consequences through a causal-inference mechanism, and (d) the net effect of counterfactual thinking is beneficial.
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“Thus, the self-explanation and data verification components help individuals more effectively learn from experience by clarifying the causal link between behavior and outcomes, and they promote more counterfactual thinking (Barsalou, 2008; Cheng, 1997; Chi, de Leeuw, Chiu, & Lavancher, 1994; Roese, 1997; Spellman, 199…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialThe Self-Talk Scale: Development, Factor Analysis, and Validation
Brinthaupt, T. M., Hein, M. B., & Kramer, T. E. (2008) · Journal of Personality Assessment · doi:10.1080/00223890802484498 · Cited by 198 · see citing works
“…in relation to several social-cognitive and self-related phenomena such as rumination and goal progress (Conway, Csank, Holm, & Blake, 2000; Martin & Tesser, 1996), counterfactual thinking (Roese, 1997), and the certainty or clarity of the self-concept (Baumgardner, 1990; Campbell et al., 1996).”
BackgroundLagattuta, K. H., & Wellman, H. M. (2002) · Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1037/0012-1649.38.4.564 · Cited by 178 · see citing works
Wrosch, C., Bauer, I. E., & Scheier, M. F. (2005) · Psychology and Aging · doi:10.1037/0882-7974.20.4.657 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Visual and verbal processing strategies in comprehension and judgment
Wyer, R. S., Hung, I. W., & Jiang, Y. (2008) · Journal of Consumer Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jcps.2008.09.002 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Cognitive Dissonance in Technology Adoption: A Study of Smart Home Users
Marikyan, D., Papagiannidis, S., & Alamanos, E. (2020) · Information Systems Frontiers · doi:10.1007/s10796-020-10042-3 · Cited by 189 · see citing works
“Counterfactual thinking refers to the ruminations about alternative decisions and potential consequences (Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundEncoding Under Trust and Distrust: The Spontaneous Activation of Incongruent Cognitions.
Schul, Y., Mayo, R., & Burnstein, E. (2004) · Journal of Personality and Social Psychology · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.86.5.668 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
Nieuwland, M. S., & Martin, A. E. (2011) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2011.09.001 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
“had never developed its Apollo Project? Would the Soviet Union have ‘won’ the Space Race? Would Neil Armstrong ever have coined his famous words strolling across the moonscape? Counterfactual reasoning, our ability to consider this hypothetical scenario, is pervasive in everyday life (e.g., Byrne, 2002; Kahneman & Mil…”
Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M. (2007) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1111/j.1745-6916.2007.00033.x · Cited by 166 · see citing works
“Praise and blame may sometimes be phrased as a counterfactual inference (Roese, 1997), which may also be self-serving: ‘‘If not for me, we would have failed’’ or ‘‘If only she had tried harder, we would have succeeded’’ (Roese & Olson, 1993).”
Self-citationDesigning Price Contracts for Boundedly Rational Customers: Does the Number of Blocks Matter?
Lim, N., & Ho, T. (2007) · Marketing Science · doi:10.1287/mksc.1070.0271 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Praise for regret: People value regret above other negative emotions
Saffrey, C., Summerville, A. L., & Roese, N. J. (2008) · Motivation and Emotion · doi:10.1007/s11031-008-9082-4 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
“Counterfactual thinking itself has been shown to bring benefits in terms of subsequent problem-solving and performance enhancement (Epstude and Roese in press; Markman et al. 2008; Roese 1994, 1997).”
BackgroundSelf-citationTo do or not to do? Action enlarges the FRN and P300 effects in outcome evaluation
Zhou, Z., Yu, R., & Zhou, X. (2010) · Neuropsychologia · doi:10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2010.08.010 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
Evans, J. S. B. T., Over, D. E., & Handley, S. J. (2005) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.112.4.1040 · Cited by 160 · see citing works
Counterfactual thinking, persistence, and performance: A test of the Reflection and Evaluation Model
Markman, K. D., McMullen, M. N., & Elizaga, R. A. (2007) · Journal of Experimental Social Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2007.01.001 · Cited by 165 · see citing works
“One is the affective function (e.g., McMullen, 1997; Roese, 1997; Taylor & Schneider, 1989), whereby a given outcome will be judged more favorably to the extent that a less desirable alternative is salient.”
BackgroundMethodWhen and Why We See Victims as Responsible
Niemi, L., & Young, L. (2016) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167216653933 · Cited by 160 · see citing works
Spontaneous versus Controlled Influences of Stimulus-Based Affect on Choice Behavior
Shiv, B., & Fedorikhin, A. (2002) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1006/obhd.2001.2977 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
OB and entrepreneurship: The reciprocal benefits of closer conceptual links
Baron, R. A. (2002) · Research in Organizational Behavior · doi:10.1016/s0191-3085(02)24007-1 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Entertainment is Emotion: The Functional Architecture of the Entertainment Experience
Tan, E. S. (2008) · Media Psychology · doi:10.1080/15213260701853161 · Cited by 154 · see citing works
“Such emotions may stimulate simulating counterfactuals, that is, better or worse courses of events than actually met, especially when they arise in response to imagined events (Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundRetroductive Theorizing: A Contribution of Critical Realism to Mixed Methods Research
Mukumbang, F. C. (2021) · Journal of Mixed Methods Research · doi:10.1177/15586898211049847 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
“Abduction also involves the application of counterfactual thinking (creating possible alternatives to events) to identify positive and negative outcomes (Roese, 1997).”
BackgroundDoing Better but Feeling Worse: The Paradox of Choice
Schwartz, B. N., & Ward, A. C. (2004) · doi:10.1002/9780470939338.ch6 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
Higgins, E. T., & Cornwell, J. F. M. (2016) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2016.04.005 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Galinsky, A. D., Seiden, V. L., Kim, P. H., & Medvec, V. H. (2002) · Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin · doi:10.1177/0146167202282012 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
“Roese (1997) and Roese and Hur (1997) have suggested that negative affect is the primary driver of counterfactual thinking and that event normality affects the content but not the activation of counterfactual thoughts.”
BackgroundJohnson, D. E., Erez, A., Kiker, D. S., & Motowidlo, S. J. (2002) · Journal of Applied Psychology · doi:10.1037/0021-9010.87.4.808 · Cited by 156 · see citing works
“Because negative cues are often more salient than positive cues (Pyszczynski & Greenberg, 1981; Roese, 1997; Wong & Weiner, 1981), if an employee enacts helpful actions but has a bad reputation, his or her negative reputation should stand out.”
Background
- Authors
- Roese, N. J.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Roese, Neal J.
- ORCID
- Roese, Neal J.
- Venue
- Psychological Bulletin
- Published
- 1997
- Volume
- 121
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 133-148
- ISSN
- 0033-2909 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1455
- OpenAlex
- W4246855866
- Cited by
- 1,156
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 50 · 2025: 58 · 2024: 87 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 73 · 2021: 59 · 2020: 71 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 62 · 2017: 57 · 2016: 53 · 2015: 48 · 2014: 40 · 2013: 38 · 2012: 38
- FWCI
- 13.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Bulletin (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Anxiety, Depression, Psychometrics, Treatment, Cognitive Processes
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Keywords
- counterfactual reasoning, counterfactuals, negative affect, contrast effects, causal inference, misfortune, functionalism
- MeSH terms
- Anger, Depression, Humans, Internal-External Control, Motivation, Problem Solving, Social Perception, Thinking
About these checks
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